英国央行本周料将如市场预期降息，但这可能将迫使政策制定者直面一个棘手问题：启动不到一年半的 宽松周期是否已接近终点? 多数经济学家与投资者预计，英国央行将于周四宣布降息25个基点，届时基准利率将降至3.75%。而英 国央行行长贝利近期援引的一项测算及其他多项指标均显示，英国的"中性利率"水平已近在咫尺——该 利率水平被认为既不会刺激也不会抑制通胀——而当前利率距离该水平仅差一到两次降息空间。 尽管英国央行货币政策委员会多数委员一直不愿明示其心中的中性利率区间，但这一概念已悄然成为决 策的重要考量因素。近几个月来，这个由9名委员组成的决策机构内，鹰派与鸽派阵营始终势均力敌， 行长贝利则成为左右最终决议的关键摇摆票。 货币政策委员会的分歧核心，在于如何权衡英国居高不下的通胀水平与持续走弱的就业市场。截至10 月，英国通胀率仍高达3.6%。自2024年8月开启本轮宽松周期以来，这两股相互博弈的力量已让降息决 策的推进步履维艰，而随着政策利率向中性水平逼近，未来的降息操作将更具挑战性。 凯投宏观英国首席经济学家Paul Dales表示："从现在起，每一次降息的门槛都将显著抬高。尽管委员们 分歧严重，但我不禁猜想，此前 ...

Core Insights - Deutsche Bank warns that despite widespread expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain a dovish stance, the next likely action in 2026 could be an interest rate hike rather than a cut, contradicting current mainstream consensus [1][2][4] Group 1: Global Economic Trends - Major economies are experiencing a significant reassessment of interest rate expectations, with markets in the Eurozone, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, and Japan indicating a shift towards rate hikes as the next step [1][4] - The rapid reversal in expectations for Canada and Australia within just two weeks serves as a cautionary signal for the U.S. market [4] Group 2: U.S. Market Dynamics - The S&P 500 index recently reached an all-time high, but Deutsche Bank cautions that this optimistic outlook heavily relies on the Fed maintaining a loose monetary policy [2][7] - The sensitivity of the market to Federal Reserve officials' statements highlights the fragility of current policy path expectations [4][5] Group 3: Economic Indicators and Policy Implications - The current pace of interest rate cuts is unprecedented in a non-recessionary context, which historically can lead to economic overheating and inflation rebound, forcing central banks to reverse course [5][7] - The combination of fiscal stimulus from the "Big Beautiful" plan and persistent inflation is likely to alter the current policy narrative, making rate hikes a realistic consideration for 2026 [7] Group 4: Market Projections - Deutsche Bank's stock strategists project a target of 8000 points for the S&P 500 by 2026, implying an annual growth rate of 15-20%, contingent on the Fed's ability to maintain a dovish preference [7] - Any deviation from expected rate cuts towards hikes due to economic data could significantly impact the valuation models for risk assets [7]

Group 1 - Gold prices remain weak, hovering around $4030, influenced by a stronger dollar and reduced expectations for interest rate cuts [1][2][4] - The market is focused on the delayed September non-farm payroll report, which could impact the Federal Reserve's policy path for December and Q1 2025 [2][4] - The probability of maintaining interest rates has risen to 56%, reflecting a shift in market expectations regarding the Fed's actions [2] Group 2 - The dollar index is stabilizing between 99.40 and 99.50, indicating a re-evaluation of the Fed's December decisions [2] - Key technical levels for gold include resistance at $4050 and support between $4028 and $4032, with a critical test at the $4000 mark if downward pressure continues [2][4] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary emphasized the potential for a U.S.-China rare earth agreement before Thanksgiving, providing structural support for the dollar [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England has decided to maintain the interest rate at 4%, paving the way for a potential rate cut in December, with a more dovish stance than expected [1][4]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Decision - The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted to keep the interest rate unchanged, with five members supporting this decision while four members advocated for a 25 basis point cut to 3.75% [1]. - Governor Bailey's vote was pivotal, as he has shown a tendency towards supporting a rate cut, citing a balance in inflation risks [1][4]. - The decision breaks a pattern of gradual monetary policy easing that had been in place since August 2024 [1]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The inflation rate in September was reported at 3.8%, which the Bank of England considers likely to be the peak [1]. - The updated forecast indicates that inflation is expected to drop to 3.1% by early next year and stabilize around the 2% target by the second quarter of 2027 [6]. - The unemployment rate is projected to peak at 5.1% in the second quarter, higher than previous estimates [6]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the announcement, the GBP/USD exchange rate retraced earlier gains, trading around 1.3075, as traders increased bets on future monetary easing [4]. - The market anticipates a reduction of approximately 50 basis points in interest rates by mid-2026, up from a prior expectation of 47 basis points [4]. Group 4: Future Considerations - The upcoming autumn budget from the Labour government may introduce significant tax increases, potentially impacting economic growth and inflation [6]. - The MPC's communication reform now includes individual voting records, reflecting a more transparent decision-making process [4][5].

Group 1 - The core focus of the article is the divergence in monetary policy among major central banks, particularly the recent interest rate decisions by the Federal Reserve, Bank of Canada, European Central Bank, and Bank of Japan [1][8] - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points but indicated that further cuts are not guaranteed, reflecting a cautious approach to monetary policy [2][3] - The Bank of Canada also cut rates by 25 basis points, suggesting that its easing cycle may be nearing an end, while the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan maintained their current rates [1][8] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's decision to end its balance sheet reduction indicates a shift towards a more neutral policy stance, with a focus on economic data for future decisions [2][3] - The article highlights the complexities faced by the Federal Reserve due to the government shutdown, which has delayed key economic data releases, complicating monetary policy decisions [5][6] - The Bank of Japan is expected to consider raising interest rates soon due to persistent inflation, marking a potential shift from its long-standing ultra-loose monetary policy [9][10] Group 3 - The article discusses the potential for the Federal Reserve to adopt a more flexible approach to monetary policy, moving away from traditional frameworks like the Taylor rule due to current economic uncertainties [7] - The European Central Bank is anticipated to maintain a more dovish stance compared to the Federal Reserve, influenced by weaker economic growth and lower inflation pressures in the Eurozone [8] - The article notes that the Japanese yen's future performance will depend on the Bank of Japan's overall policy signals, particularly regarding any potential interest rate hikes [10]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decisions by major central banks, including the Federal Reserve, Bank of Canada, Bank of Japan, and European Central Bank, highlight a divergence in monetary policy approaches amid varying economic conditions and inflationary pressures across regions [1][2][3]. Summary by Sections Federal Reserve - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, but Chairman Powell indicated that further rate cuts in December are not guaranteed, reflecting a cautious approach [2][3]. - Key takeaways from the Fed's meeting include the 25 basis point cut, the end of balance sheet reduction starting December 1, and a cautious stance on future rate cuts due to significant internal disagreements among officials [2][3]. - The Fed's decision to cut rates is largely a preventive measure in response to a cooling job market and the potential impact of the government shutdown on economic data [2][5]. Economic Conditions - The U.S. economy is experiencing a slowdown due to the combined effects of tariff increases and tighter monetary policy, with fiscal policy now complicated by the government shutdown [5][6]. - The shutdown has led to delays in key economic data releases, creating information asymmetry for decision-makers and potentially altering market expectations regarding the Fed's actions [5][6]. Other Central Banks - The Bank of Canada has also cut rates by 25 basis points but suggests that its easing cycle may be nearing an end, while the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan have maintained their current rates [1][8]. - The European Central Bank is expected to adopt a more dovish stance in 2026, influenced by weaker economic growth and lower inflation pressures in the Eurozone [7][8]. - The Bank of Japan is at a critical juncture, with market expectations for a potential rate hike due to persistent inflation, despite maintaining its current rate for now [9][10]. Market Implications - The divergence in monetary policy among major central banks may lead to increased volatility in currency markets, particularly for the Japanese yen, which could appreciate if the Bank of Japan signals a shift towards tightening [10][11]. - The overall economic landscape suggests that the Fed may need to adopt a more flexible policy framework, moving away from traditional rules like the Taylor rule, to better respond to evolving economic conditions and pressures [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4.00% and announced the end of balance sheet reduction, responding to economic constraints due to the ongoing government shutdown [1][2][4] Economic Impact of Government Shutdown - The government shutdown has lasted nearly a month, leading to a temporary interruption of fiscal spending and a reduction in labor income, which compresses consumer spending [3][4] - Historical data indicates a positive non-linear relationship between the duration of government shutdowns and economic losses, with longer shutdowns resulting in more permanent losses [5][6] Monetary Policy Adjustments - The Fed is expected to accelerate easing measures in both time series and rule dimensions, moving from a cautious stance to a more aggressive adjustment phase [7][8] - The Fed's decision to lower rates aligns with market expectations and reflects a proactive response to current economic constraints [4][8] Future Rate Projections - It is anticipated that the Fed will lower rates by an additional 75 basis points in 2025 and potentially by 50-75 basis points in 2026, aiming for a more neutral federal funds rate [2][9]

Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision-Making Framework - The Federal Reserve has evolved from a financial system stabilizer to an independent central bank with a dual mandate of maximizing employment and stabilizing prices, guided by the Taylor Rule[1] - The Taylor Rule suggests that based on current economic outlook, the Fed is expected to implement one rate cut in 2026, while traders have priced in 2.7 cuts[1] - The Fed's independence may be challenged by political pressures, particularly from Trump's strong demand for low interest rates[1] Group 2: Economic Implications of Monetary Policy - If the Fed implements cuts beyond what the economy requires, it could lead to a shift from a soft landing to economic expansion, lowering short-term U.S. Treasury yields but increasing long-term yield premiums[1] - A lower dollar interest rate and deteriorating dollar credit conditions may exert depreciation pressure on the dollar and support gold prices to reach new highs[1] - An expanding U.S. economy is likely to boost overall demand, positively impacting U.S. stocks and commodities like copper[1] Group 3: Risks and Historical Context - Historical data shows that the Fed's policy rates have deviated significantly from the Taylor Rule's prescriptions during periods of stagflation and the 2021 "transitory inflation" narrative, with deviations reaching nearly 10%[1] - The risks in the Fed's decision-making stem from academic uncertainties regarding neutral rates, the timing and impact of monetary policy on the real economy, and subjective political influences[1] - The upcoming Fed chair, expected to take office in May 2026, may further complicate the Fed's adherence to data-driven policies due to political correctness[1]

Core Insights - The article discusses the historical case of John Law and the Mississippi Bubble, drawing parallels to modern economic situations, particularly in the U.S. [2][7][11] Group 1: Historical Context - In 1716, John Law proposed the idea that "paper money can create wealth" to address France's financial crisis, leading to the establishment of a private bank that issued paper currency [2] - The Mississippi Company, founded by Law in 1717, received a 25-year monopoly to develop the Louisiana territory, which was believed to be rich in resources [2][3] Group 2: Economic Boom and Bust - The stock price of the Mississippi Company skyrocketed from 500 to nearly 10,000 livres, creating a speculative frenzy among the public [3] - By 1719-1720, the circulation of paper money doubled, leading to a 100% increase in prices in Paris, which caused public distrust in paper currency [4] Group 3: Policy Responses and Consequences - Law's attempts to stabilize the economy through various policies, including making paper currency legal tender and restricting gold and silver holdings, failed and led to public panic [4][5] - The Mississippi Company's stock plummeted from 9,000 to 1,000 livres within weeks, resulting in Law's dismissal and the collapse of the paper money system in France [5][7] Group 4: Modern Parallels - The article draws a comparison between the Mississippi Bubble and current U.S. economic policies, suggesting that reliance on credit expansion without real production can lead to similar financial disasters [7][10] - The U.S. faces significant fiscal challenges, with a projected federal deficit of 6.2% of GDP and public debt nearing $36 trillion, raising concerns about the sustainability of its economic model [8][10] Group 5: Trust and Credibility - The article emphasizes that the limits of monetary policy are defined by societal trust in the system, warning that repeated fiscal irresponsibility can erode this trust [11] - The potential for a trust crisis in the U.S. dollar is highlighted, suggesting that global capital may seek alternatives if confidence in the dollar diminishes [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - Stephen Milan, a newly appointed Federal Reserve governor closely associated with the former Trump administration, advocates for aggressive interest rate cuts, challenging the cautious stance of the Fed [1][3][5] Group 1: Interest Rate Policy - Milan voted against the majority at the last Federal Reserve meeting, advocating for a 50 basis point cut instead of the 25 basis points supported by his colleagues [1][3] - He believes the current interest rates are significantly above the neutral rate, which he estimates to be around 2.5%, indicating a gap of nearly 200 basis points [3] - Milan calls for a rapid and substantial reduction in rates, suggesting a total cut of 125 basis points in the remaining meetings of the year, which exceeds the general expectation of 50 basis points [3][5] Group 2: Inflation Perspective - Milan emphasizes that inflation pressures are easing, particularly in housing costs, which he considers a key factor in his inflation outlook [5][6] - He assigns a significant weight to housing costs in inflation measures, noting that they account for approximately 16% of PCE inflation and a higher percentage in CPI [5] - He attributes the decline in housing inflation to stricter immigration policies during the Trump administration, which he believes have reduced housing demand [5][6] Group 3: Market Reactions and Criticism - Milan's views have sparked scrutiny, particularly regarding the potential influence of political factors on his decision-making, given his ties to the Trump administration [6][8] - He attempts to distance himself from political influences, asserting that his analysis is based on objective economic data [8] - Critics argue that his models may oversimplify complex economic factors, potentially overlooking risks such as geopolitical tensions and wage pressures that could counteract housing cost declines [9] Group 4: Comparison with Fed Leadership - In contrast to Milan's aggressive stance, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has adopted a more cautious approach, emphasizing the need for more data before making policy adjustments [9] - Powell's comments reflect a "wait and see" attitude, highlighting uncertainties surrounding tariffs and immigration policies, which differ from Milan's call for immediate action [9][10] - Milan's focus on housing costs and willingness to adjust his views based on data make him a unique variable in the Fed's policy discussions moving forward [10]