斯蒂芬·米兰，这位与前特朗普政府关系密切的新晋美联储理事，宛如一颗石子投向了美联储内部谨慎降息的平静湖面，激起了层层涟漪，为未来的货币政 策走向增添了复杂性。他不仅在上一次的利率会议上，以一己之力挑战主流意见，力主采取更为激进的降息措施，更将住房成本的变化，视为自己通胀预测 体系中的核心风向标。米兰明确表示，一旦租金数据出现意外飙升，他将毫不犹豫地修正自己当前温和的通胀预期。 回溯九月份的那场美联储利率会议，米兰与大多数同僚的意见分歧暴露无遗。在其他官员纷纷投票支持将联邦基金利率下调25个基点之际，米兰却投出了唯 一的反对票。他认为，这种小幅降息的力度远远不够，美联储应该一步到位，直接降息50个基点。这并非一时冲动，而是源于他对美国经济现状的深刻洞察 和独特判断。 米兰反复强调，当前的利率水平已经"深入限制性区间"，远高于他所认为的"中性利率"——即既不会过度刺激也不会抑制经济增长的理想利率水平。他估 算，当前的中性利率大约在2.5%左右，这意味着现行的利率水平几乎高出这一水平近两个百分点。 在米兰看来，这种差距蕴藏着巨大的风险。他警告称，如果将利率长期维持在过高的水平，将会给美国经济带来巨大的压力，尤其有可 ...

Well, good morning, Steve. Thank you for joining us on this non jobs day. Jobs day.We get no government primary economic data because of the shutdown right now. So let me start by asking if that continues. As a member of the Open Market Committee, would you feel comfortable voting for a significant cut in interest rates if you don't have data on employment and on inflation.Good morning and thanks for having me. Look, I think it's important to recognize, first of all, that as you're pointing out, access to h ...

Group 1 - The core issue behind the political crisis surrounding the Federal Reserve is whether it can "manipulate" interest rates and the implications of a steepening U.S. Treasury yield curve [1][5] - The market is optimistic about the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in the short term, influenced by Trump's potential nominations for a "dovish" shadow chairman [2][20] - The Federal Reserve can "set" but not "manipulate" policy interest rates, as interest rates are endogenous and influenced by macroeconomic factors [3][45] Group 2 - The U.S. government's fiscal and debt situation is in a "quasi-war state," necessitating fiscal consolidation to manage rising deficits and leverage ratios [7] - Sustainable fiscal consolidation can be achieved through economic growth or budget cuts, each with different political costs [7] - A decrease in the basic fiscal deficit rate by 1 percentage point could lead to a decline in the 10-year Treasury yield by 12-35 basis points [5][7] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's long-term ability to manipulate the yield curve is limited, and the trend of rising yield premiums on U.S. Treasuries is likely to continue [4] - The market tends to price in overly "dovish" expectations during rate hike cycles and overly "hawkish" expectations during rate cut cycles [4] - The transition from "loose fiscal + loose monetary" to "tight fiscal + loose monetary" policies is crucial for the Federal Reserve's future rate cut space [5][20]

Group 1 - The current trading price of paper gold is around 855.12 yuan per gram, with a slight decline of 0.31% [1] - The highest price reached was 859.96 yuan per gram, while the lowest was 852.21 yuan per gram, indicating a short-term bearish trend [1] - The key resistance level for paper gold is identified between 860 yuan per gram and 870 yuan per gram, while the important support level is between 830 yuan per gram and 850 yuan per gram [3] Group 2 - Stephen Milan, a new Federal Reserve governor, proposed aggressive interest rate cuts, supporting Trump’s policies, but faced skepticism from the market [2] - The market's skepticism stems from perceived flaws in Milan's theoretical foundations, particularly regarding the potential effects of Trump's policies on labor supply and inflation [2] - The current economic indicators, such as a projected GDP growth rate exceeding 3% for Q3, suggest resilience in the economy, contradicting the need for aggressive rate cuts [2]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is experiencing significant internal divisions regarding its monetary policy path, influenced by President Trump's ongoing pressure and uncertainties in trade and immigration policies [1][2] - The Fed recently initiated its first rate cut of the year, lowering the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.0%–4.25%, with support from most policymakers [1][6] - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly supports the rate cut, citing signs of economic slowdown, consumer spending, and labor market weakening, emphasizing the need for further policy adjustments to stabilize prices and support the labor market [1][6] Group 2 - Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee expressed a cautious stance, supporting the recent rate cut but warning against hasty further cuts, noting persistent inflation above the 2% target for four and a half years [1][2] - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent criticized Fed Chair Powell for not signaling further rate cuts, suggesting a need for a reduction of 100 to 150 basis points by year-end [2] - New Fed Governor Stephen Miran, nominated by Trump, advocated for a more aggressive 50 basis point cut, indicating a shift in the Fed's approach to monetary policy [2][3] Group 3 - Miran's policy stance has garnered attention, proposing that the Trump administration's policies should lead to a significant decrease in the neutral real interest rate, advocating for a further rate cut to around 2.5% [3] - Concerns were raised regarding the assumptions underlying Miran's proposals, including potential labor shortages and inflationary pressures from immigration restrictions and tariffs [3] - The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model predicts a strong economic growth rate exceeding 3% by Q3 2025, suggesting reduced urgency for significant rate cuts [3][4] Group 4 - A joint survey by the Atlanta Fed, Richmond Fed, and Duke University indicates that while trade policy uncertainty has decreased, expectations for costs and prices are rising for 2026 [4] - The survey revealed that tariffs have increased planned price hikes by up to 30%, continuing to suppress some investment decisions among businesses [5] - Powell noted that short-term inflation risks are skewed upward while employment risks are skewed downward, highlighting the complex interplay of inflation, employment, and political pressures facing the Fed [5][6]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points marks its first rate cut in 2025, which has been anticipated by global financial markets, resulting in a relatively stable market reaction [1][2] - China's central bank has emphasized a supportive monetary policy stance, focusing on optimizing monetary systems and tools to enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission, thereby promoting funds circulation and value creation [1][2] - The global financial market's response to the Fed's rate cut has been mixed, with significant volatility observed in cryptocurrency markets, while major stock markets remain driven by technical and bond market factors [2][3] Group 2 - The impact of the Fed's rate cut is expected to differ in the short and medium to long term, with potential risks arising from a prolonged period of low rates that could lead to a weaker dollar and affect global capital flows [3][4] - China is advised to manage various relationships, including balancing monetary policy with forward guidance, promoting trade and investment growth while pursuing financial openness, and enhancing domestic and international market integration [4][7] - The internationalization of the renminbi is seen as a strategic opportunity for China to mitigate the impacts of the Fed's rate cut, allowing for more effective monetary policy adjustments and support for the real economy [7][8] Group 3 - The construction of a unified national market and the promotion of a dual circulation strategy are crucial for enhancing domestic consumption and investment, which can help stabilize the renminbi and reduce the impact of fluctuations in the dollar [8][9] - The relationship between credit precision and liquidity injection into capital markets is highlighted, emphasizing the need for a balanced approach to support both the financial system and the real economy [10][11] - The overall focus is on how to leverage the Fed's rate cut to enhance China's economic resilience and improve resource allocation efficiency through targeted monetary policies [11]

Core Viewpoint - The article questions the rationale provided by Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran for advocating significant interest rate cuts, suggesting that if his views are accepted, it would imply that the Federal Reserve, investors, and independent economists are all incorrect [2]. Group 1: Miran's Arguments - Miran supports a reduction of interest rates from the current 4%-4.25% range to approximately 2.5%, citing the impact of Trump's policy changes, including reduced immigration, lower government borrowing, and deregulation, which he believes should lead to lower long-term rates [2][3]. - He estimates that the "neutral real long-term interest rate" has decreased by over 1 percentage point due to these policy changes, predicting a potential 10% increase in the price of 10-year TIPS if yields drop to his estimated levels [3]. Group 2: Market Implications - If Miran's assumptions hold, significant adjustments in market pricing would be necessary, leading to a weaker dollar and favorable conditions for the stock market, despite concerns about high stock prices [3]. - The combination of lower borrowing costs and a weaker dollar is expected to benefit the stock market, suggesting that it could rise even further if Miran's views are validated [3]. Group 3: Counterarguments and Economic Context - The article highlights potential downsides to Miran's proposed policy changes, such as labor shortages and rising wages due to immigration restrictions, which could increase inflation [4][5]. - It also points out that the effectiveness of deregulation is unpredictable and that Miran's reliance on the Taylor Rule may not fully account for current economic conditions, as other metrics suggest a higher recommended interest rate range [5]. - Current economic indicators, including a projected GDP growth rate exceeding 3% for Q3 and strong market performance, challenge the necessity for further rate cuts, indicating that the economic landscape is more robust than Miran suggests [6][7].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25% amid signs of economic slowdown and a weakening labor market [1][2][5] - Inflation remains above the target of 2%, with the August CPI rising by 2.9% year-on-year and core CPI increasing by 3.1% [2] - The labor market shows significant weakness, with a downward revision of 911,000 jobs added over the past 12 months and an unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, the highest since 2021 [2][5] Group 2 - The Taylor rule, which has guided monetary policy since the 1990s, is losing its effectiveness, as recent economic conditions have led to deviations from its recommendations [3][4] - The Federal Reserve's credibility is crucial for its ability to deviate from the Taylor rule, allowing for more flexible monetary policy in response to supply shocks and inflation [4][5] - Future monetary policy is expected to focus more on the labor market, with potential for accelerated rate cuts due to ongoing fiscal pressures and government interventions [5] Group 3 - The structural rise in neutral interest rates may limit the scope for aggressive monetary easing, as excessive loosening could undermine the Fed's credibility and reignite inflation [5] - A stable inflation target of 3%-4% could lead to gradual improvements in the labor market, supporting a continued path of interest rate cuts [5] - The anticipated easing of monetary policy may accelerate the repricing of global assets, benefiting physical assets and precious metals, while potentially leading to capital flows favoring emerging markets [5]

Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points, which is seen as a consensus decision among policymakers [2][10] - Current economic indicators suggest strong growth, with a GDP growth rate of 3.3% for the second quarter and retail sales up 6% year-over-year [6][15] - There are mixed signals regarding inflation, with current rates around 2.9%, which is above the Fed's target of 2% [5][10] Monetary Policy - The Fed's approach to monetary policy is described as cautious and data-dependent, with a focus on balancing growth and inflation [10][12] - There is a debate among Fed officials regarding the appropriate level of interest rate cuts, with some advocating for more aggressive cuts [10][11] - The Phillips Curve is mentioned as a flawed model for understanding the relationship between unemployment and inflation, suggesting a need for diverse economic models [9][10] Income Inequality - The discussion highlights a widening gap between the wealthy and low-income consumers, with concerns about the distribution of economic growth [13][14] - Despite income inequality, there has been notable growth in retail sales, indicating optimism among lower-income consumers [15]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points is characterized as a "risk management-style cut," which appears somewhat "awkward" due to the contrast between economic forecasts and the rate cut path [1][2]. Economic Forecasts and Rate Path - The FOMC raised GDP growth expectations for 2025-2027, with 2025 and 2026 projected at 1.6% and 1.8% respectively, while lowering unemployment rate forecasts for 2026-2027 to 4.4% and 4.3% [2]. - Despite a more optimistic economic outlook, the rate path indicated a reduction of 25 basis points compared to June predictions, with a median forecast suggesting three rate cuts this year to 3.6% [2]. Employment Market Concerns - The decision for a more accommodative policy is primarily driven by significant deterioration in the employment market, with average job growth over the last three months at only 29,000, down from 99,000 [3]. - The FOMC shows major internal disagreements regarding the policy path, with six members favoring only one rate cut this year, while two support two cuts [3]. Powell's Hawkish Stance - Despite the dovish signals from the dot plot, Powell adopted a hawkish tone, downplaying the significance of the dot plot and emphasizing that it reflects individual forecasts rather than a predetermined policy path [4]. Inflation Concerns - Powell noted an increase in commodity price inflation, likely reflecting tariff impacts, and emphasized the FOMC's responsibility to prevent temporary price increases from evolving into persistent inflation issues [5]. Barclays' Expectations - Barclays maintains its baseline expectation that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points in October and December, primarily due to ongoing weak job growth and rising unemployment [6]. - For 2026, Barclays anticipates a pause in rate cuts until signs of easing monthly inflation data are observed, with further cuts expected in March and June [6].