跨年债市的关键：供需错配的节奏 20260201 摘要 超长债供需失衡是市场主导逻辑，配置需求不足时债市风险加大，需求 增加则利率修复。当前经济环境改善，利率震荡上行，但短期需警惕供 需错位，春节后操作需谨慎。 机构不缺资金但缺乏利率风险指标（VAE），大行负债稳定但贷款一般， 超长债发行对银行 EV 指标构成压力，监管限制下，银行需市场化手段 应对超长债发行压力。 地方债和特别国债发行通过套保机制将利率上行压力转移至长期国债， 未来需密切关注这些因素对市场的影响，操作上保持谨慎。 上半年债券市场供需矛盾难以彻底解决，不仅是央行投放资金问题，还 涉及利率风险指标的系统性影响。2 月地方债发行量预计达 9,000 亿至 1 万亿元，发行冲击或超预期。 10 年以内国债相对安全，30 年以上国债需关注地方债一级发行利率对 二级市场的影响。节后长久期资产供应增加，配置需求不足，需保持谨 慎。 Q&A 2025 年 12 月债市走弱，2026 年 1 月中下旬债市修复后，目前债市进入平 台期或瓶颈期。请问在这种情况下，年前和跨年后的机会点和风险点在哪里？ 当前债市的主要逻辑是供需关系。一季度甚至整个上半年，供需矛盾将 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant challenges facing the global bond market, particularly focusing on the issues surrounding U.S. Treasury bonds and Japanese government bonds, amidst a backdrop of changing geopolitical and economic dynamics [1][4]. Group 1: Global Debt Market Dynamics - The recent "disastrous" auctions of 20-year Japanese and U.S. bonds signal a shift in the global bond market, emphasizing a supply-demand mismatch exacerbated by geopolitical tensions and fiscal policies [1][4]. - The U.S. tax cuts and spending bill passed by the House of Representatives poses a direct challenge to the rebalancing of global debt supply, suggesting a systemic increase in government debt [4][5]. Group 2: U.S. Fiscal Policy Implications - The tax cut and spending bill is projected to increase the deficit by $3.1 trillion over the next decade, which does not account for potential tariff revenues [5]. - The U.S. government shows no intention of reducing its deficit or debt levels, with an expected annual budget deficit of around $2 trillion in the coming years [5][11]. Group 3: Japanese Bond Market Insights - Japan's bond market is experiencing a shift, with traditional domestic buyers reducing their duration, while overseas funds are becoming significant net buyers [8]. - The low interest rates since 2021 have led to a substantial increase in yen-denominated cross-border financing, which could have a profound impact on global liquidity [5][8]. Group 4: Supply-Demand Mismatch in U.S. Treasuries - The U.S. Treasury market faces a supply-demand mismatch, with an anticipated annual issuance of approximately $2 trillion in government bonds [11]. - The main holders of U.S. Treasuries include the Federal Reserve, U.S. commercial banks, U.S. residents, and foreign investors, with foreign investors being crucial for market stability [11][16]. Group 5: Scenarios for Tax Cuts and Tariffs - Four potential scenarios are outlined regarding the impact of tax cuts and tariff negotiations on the U.S. Treasury market, with the most likely scenario indicating significant downward pressure on bond prices if tax cuts proceed without resolution in tariff discussions [19][20].