今天的走势 今天再回落，下穿4040的位置。 继续回调，下看4000的关口的支撑。 不破此位置，再次反弹，继续看挑战4064的位置。 黄金昨天一天内两连跳，接连止跌反弹后，4100再接连遇阻。快速冲高，又跳水，70美金范围内，上蹿 下跳穿梭4100的关口，今天震荡破低，下探4000关口。 昨天4100附近，再次空获利。 昨晚再做过山车，小破4100后。 再次上演跳水，持续4040范围内洗盘。 另外一方面，美9月非农驾到，迟到了一个多月，终于还是来了。不过影响力显然不足，迟到的数据终 归还是迟到。同步公布的还有美失业率，意外的是刷了4年新高，失业金月月增加，两大数据打架，黄 金上蹿下跳不断洗盘。 今天消息面 今天重点美11月PMI来了，检测美经济的强弱的重要指标，或再揭开美经济的真实面纱，或再给美股美 债带来一个冲击，进而波及美元和黄金。 以及重点，今晚周五收官，美联储官员密集发声，又要搞事情来了。美劳动力市场谜团未解，通胀的担 忧，继续给美联储政策上难题，内部鹰鸽继续分歧，加剧撕裂感，晴雨难测，今晚或又要面临黑色星期 五。 当然了，再次上破，继续看向4110的阻力。 同时，4064下方，再次遇阻回调。 下穿4 ...

Group 1 - The bond market shows a slight upward trend in long-term bond yields, with the central bank conducting a 407.5 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, resulting in a net injection of 3.7 billion yuan [3][4]. - The interbank funding rates remain stable, with DR001 around 1.53% and DR007 around 1.52%, indicating a marginal contraction in the funding environment [4][6]. - The stock market is performing weakly, with a slight decline of 0.81% in the A-share market, while the Nikkei 225 index dropped by 3.22%, influenced by rising Japanese bond yields [6][7]. Group 2 - The 10-year government bond yield opened at 1.80% and fluctuated around 1.805%, reflecting a stable sentiment in the bond market despite external pressures [6][7]. - The trading volume in the repo market shows a significant decrease, with R001 at 62.2 billion yuan and R007 at 6.96 billion yuan, indicating a contraction in market activity [5][6]. - The overall market sentiment is described as calm, with no significant news impacting the trading environment, leading to a stable bond market despite the weak stock performance [3][6].

【行情跟踪】 国债期货收盘全线上涨，30年期主力合约涨0.06%报116.53，10年期主力合约涨0.03%报108.5，5年期主 力合约涨0.03%报105.92，2年期主力合约涨0.01%报102.49。 银行间主要利率债表现分化，30年期国债"25超长特别国债06"收益率下行0.35BP报2.136%，10年期国开 债"25国开15"收益率下行0.2BP报1.866%，5年期国开债"25国开08"收益率上行0.4BP报1.714%。 中证转债指数收盘下跌0.55%，报488.05点，成交金额682.42亿元。中能转债、立中转债、天赐转债、 国城转债、振华转债跌幅居前，分别跌14.87%、11.04%、10.39%、8.84%、8.37%。东时转债、微导转 债、润达转债、惠城转债、路维转债涨幅居前，分别涨14.69%、6.00%、5.09%、4.77%、4.76%。 【海外债市】 北美市场方面，当地时间11月17日，美债收益率涨跌不一，2年期美债收益率涨0.63BP报3.608%，3年 期美债收益率涨0.28BP报3.611%，5年期美债收益率持平报3.728%，10年期美债收益率跌0.78BP报 4.1 ...

新华财经北京11月17日电日本政府周一公布的数据显示，日本经济年化收缩幅度为1.8%，按季度计算，该国GDP下滑0.4%，为六个季度 以来首次出现负增长。日债市场当天几乎全线下跌，收益率普遍上行，10年期日债收益率上行3.4BPs至1.734%。经济学家认为，日本经 济出现的首次萎缩，使日本央行下次加息的时间表进一步复杂化。 当天盘中及盘后交易时段，投资者在抛售除3个月期短债以外的日债，其中超长期日债的抛售情绪尤甚，20年期日债收益率涨3.2BPs至 2.748%，30年期日债收益率上涨5BPs至3.263%。 然而，一些经济学家表示，由于房地产行业对利率很敏感，在看到疲弱的结果后，政府可能会更加反对加息。日本央行下一次政策会议 定于12月18日至19日举行。 | 期限品种 | 收益率% | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | | JPN 3-MO | 0.439 | -0.046 | | JPN 2-YR | 0.935 | +0.006 A | | JPN 3-YR | 1.052 | +0.012 A | | JPN 5-YR | 1.258 | +0.011 A | | JPN 10-Y ...

Market Overview - The bond market showed a strong consolidation on November 17, with all major government bond futures closing higher, and interbank bond yields declining by approximately 0.5-1 basis points [1][2] - The central bank conducted a net injection of 163.1 billion yuan in the open market, with funding rates collectively rising due to tax period disturbances [1][6] Bond Futures Performance - The 30-year main contract rose by 0.33% to 116.45, the 10-year main contract increased by 0.09% to 108.485, the 5-year main contract went up by 0.05% to 105.905, and the 2-year main contract gained 0.03% to 102.48 [2] Yield Movements - Major interbank bond yields generally declined, with the 10-year government bond yield falling by 0.35 basis points to 1.8015%, and the 30-year government bond yield decreasing by 1 basis point to 2.1385% [2] International Bond Market Trends - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields rose across the board, with the 10-year yield increasing by 2.71 basis points to 4.146% [3] - In Asia, Japanese bond yields generally increased, with the 10-year yield rising by 3 basis points to 1.73% [4] - In the Eurozone, 10-year bond yields also saw increases, with French yields up by 4.3 basis points to 3.457% [4] Primary Market Activity - Agricultural Development Bank's financial bonds had successful bids with yields of 1.3849% for 1.074 years, 1.6197% for 3 years, and 1.7076% for 5 years, with bid-to-cover ratios of 3.6, 7.53, and 1.24 respectively [5] Funding Conditions - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repo operation with a fixed rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 163.1 billion yuan after accounting for maturing repos [6] Institutional Insights - Institutions suggest that the current market conditions may lead to continued downward pressure on yields due to insufficient financing demand and ongoing asset scarcity, with a focus on the allocation opportunities towards the end of the year and early next year [1][7] - The tightening supply of convertible bonds has led to increased valuations, with recommendations for investors to focus on mid-to-large cap, relatively low-priced securities while taking profits on high-priced, overvalued stocks [8]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing a period of consolidation with limited fluctuations in both futures and cash bonds, as market participants remain cautious following recent significant news and events [1] Market Performance - The closing prices for government bond futures showed minimal changes, with the 30-year main contract up by 0.03% to 116.16, while the 10-year and 5-year contracts remained flat at 108.415 and 105.875 respectively [2] - The interbank bond market displayed slight differentiation, with the yield on the 10-year government bond "25附息国债16" rising by 0.25 basis points to 1.805%, while the yield on the 10-year policy bank bond "25国开15" fell by 0.15 basis points to 1.8745% [2] International Bond Market - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields increased across the board, with the 10-year yield rising by 5.18 basis points to 4.121% [3] - Japanese government bond yields also rose, with the 10-year yield up by 0.4 basis points to 1.699% [4] - In the Eurozone, yields on 10-year bonds increased, with French bonds rising by 3.9 basis points to 3.415% and German bonds up by 4.4 basis points to 2.686% [4] Primary Market - The Ministry of Finance reported weighted average yields for 10-year and 30-year government bonds at 1.78% and 1.81% respectively, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.67 for both [5] - The China Export-Import Bank's 3-year floating rate bond had a winning rate of 1.6579% with a bid-to-cover ratio of 7.72 [6] Liquidity Conditions - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repo operation totaling 212.8 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 71.1 billion yuan for the day [7] - The Shibor rates showed mixed movements, with the overnight rate rising by 4.8 basis points to 1.363% [7] Institutional Perspectives - Institutions suggest that the likelihood of a comprehensive rate cut is low, with the central bank favoring a mix of liquidity management tools rather than standalone rate cuts [9] - The anticipated window for interest rate cuts is expected to open between Q4 of this year and Q1 of next year, with the bond market likely to price in expectations of monetary easing in advance [9]

Group 1 - Investors are selling U.S. Treasury bonds and buying risk assets as expectations rise that the federal government shutdown will soon end, leading to an increase in Treasury yields across the board [1][3] - As of the close on November 10, the 2-year Treasury yield rose by 3 basis points to 3.591%, the 10-year yield increased by 2 basis points to 4.116%, and the 30-year yield went up by 1 basis point to 4.706% [1] - The yield spread between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury notes narrowed slightly to 55 basis points [1] Group 2 - Investors are closely monitoring the bipartisan negotiations for a funding bill to end the government shutdown that began on October 1, with the Senate passing a procedural measure to advance the agreement [3] - The final agreement will fund the government until the end of January but does not include the Democrats' request to extend tax credits related to the Affordable Care Act [3] - The delay in key economic reports due to the government shutdown has left investors relying on less comprehensive private surveys, including the recently released Michigan consumer sentiment survey, which showed a decline in consumer confidence [3] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's recent financial stability report highlights policy uncertainty, geopolitical risks, and concerns over high long-term interest rates and fiscal debt sustainability as primary risks to financial stability [4] - The report indicates that hedge fund leverage has reached its highest level since comprehensive data collection began in 2013 [4] - Market expectations for a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December are significant, with a 64.1% probability of a 25 basis point cut [4] Group 4 - Disagreements among Federal Reserve officials regarding further rate cuts are intensifying, driven by inflation pressures and weak employment [5] - In the European bond market, yields are rising, with German, Italian, and French bond yields all experiencing increases [5] - Japanese financial institutions are adjusting their forecasts for the yen's exchange rate against the dollar, anticipating depreciation due to concerns over fiscal policies and interest rate expectations [5][7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - end US Treasury yields declined again. Amid the federal government shutdown and labor data divergence, the market identified more recession signs and increased bets on interest rate cuts. If the federal government resumes operation before the December meeting, it may provide sufficient evidence for rate cuts [3][13]. - Global major asset classes showed different trends. Global stock indices generally pulled back, energy and black commodities were adjusted, precious metals fluctuated downwards, and the US dollar weakened due to weak labor data [5][18][19][20]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Overseas Macroeconomic Interest Rate Review 3.1.1 Macroeconomic Indicator Review - Employment: In October, the ADP employment number turned positive but remained weak. The private - sector added about 42,000 jobs, higher than the expected 32,000 and reversing the decline in September. However, the increase was still small compared to previous years. New jobs were mainly concentrated in education, healthcare, trade, transportation, and public utilities, while several industries such as professional business services, information technology, and leisure and entertainment saw continuous net job losses for the third month [1][11]. - Business indices: The US Markit services PMI growth in October slowed, the ISM non - manufacturing PMI increased, the Markit manufacturing PMI rose, and the ISM manufacturing PMI fell short of expectations. The labor market in the service and manufacturing industries remained weak [2][12]. 3.1.2 Main Overseas Market Interest Rate Review - US: From October 31 to November 7, 2025, the short - end US Treasury yields declined again. The yield curve steepened with short - and medium - term yields down and ultra - long - term yields slightly up. The market strengthened bets on rate cuts, and the probability of a December rate cut increased by 4 percentage points to 67%. With the two - party attitude softening on Friday, the market expected the government shutdown to end soon [3][13]. - Europe and Japan: Japanese government bond yields had a slight overall increase, with short - end yields down and medium - and long - end yields up. German government bond yields across all maturities increased, with long - end yields leading the rise and the weekly amplitude reaching a phased high [4][17]. 3.2 Other Major Asset Reviews - Equities: Global major stock indices generally pulled back, affected by both fundamentals and policy expectations. The Russian MOEX index rose 1.63%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rebounded 1.29%, while the US Nasdaq index fell 3.04%, and the Japanese Nikkei 225 index fell 4.07% [5][18]. - Commodities: Energy and black commodities were generally adjusted, and precious metals fluctuated downwards. US hog futures rose 0.93%, CBOT soybeans rose 0.16%, while Brent crude oil fell 2.21%, and Bitcoin fell 5.73% [5][19]. - Foreign exchange: Due to weak US labor data, the US dollar weakened. The Japanese yen rose 0.53%, the Vietnamese dong rose 0.20%, and the South Korean won depreciated 1.59% [5][20]. 3.3 Market Tracking - The report presents multiple charts, including the auction panel of US Treasury bonds, the latest target interest rate expectations of FED WATCH, the simulated trends of the US dollar, US stocks, US Treasury bonds, gold, and Bitcoin, the trends of global major stock indices, the yield curves of US, Japanese, and German government bonds, and the latest economic data panels of the US, Japan, and the Eurozone [15][16][23].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is currently in a consolidation phase, with long-end varieties remaining weak, and the focus is shifting back to fundamentals and equity market performance, requiring renewed policy easing expectations for further strengthening [1][6]. Market Performance - On November 6, the main contracts for government bond futures mostly closed lower, with the 30-year contract down 0.28% at 116.11, the 10-year contract down 0.09% at 108.535, and the 5-year contract down 0.03% at 105.965 [2]. - The interbank yield on major bonds generally rose, with the 10-year China Development Bank bond yield increasing by 0.2 basis points to 1.866%, and the 10-year government bond yield rising by 0.2 basis points to 1.7945% [2]. International Bond Market - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields rose across the board, with the 10-year yield increasing by 7.78 basis points to 4.159% [3]. - In Asia, Japanese bond yields also saw an increase, with the 10-year yield rising by 1.6 basis points to 1.68% [3]. - In the Eurozone, 10-year French, German, Italian, and Spanish bond yields all increased, with the French yield rising by 1.9 basis points to 3.455% [3]. Primary Market - The China Development Bank's 3-year and 7-year financial bonds were issued at yields of 1.6605% and 1.8685%, respectively, with bid-to-cover ratios of 3.35 and 5.62 [4]. Liquidity Conditions - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 928 billion yuan at a rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 249.8 billion yuan for the day [5]. - Short-term Shibor rates fell across the board, with the overnight rate down 0.2 basis points to 1.313% [5]. Institutional Perspectives - Institutions suggest that in a tightening monetary environment, floating-rate bonds may outperform other fixed-income assets, with expectations for further expansion in the floating-rate bond market [7]. - The overall stability of the liability side is expected to limit disturbances in the bond market, with a continued recovery anticipated in the fourth quarter [7]. - The bond market has entered a phase of information vacuum, with risk preferences becoming the main reference for interest rate pricing [7].

Core Points - Investors are closely monitoring the ongoing government shutdown, which has lasted for 35 days and is approaching the record length set from December 22, 2018, to January 25, 2019 [1] - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond has decreased by 2.2 basis points to 4.085% [3] - The ISM manufacturing index for October was reported at 48.7%, below the expected 49.3%, indicating a decline of 0.4 percentage points from September [3] Economic Data and Federal Reserve Insights - The lack of key economic reports due to the government shutdown has created uncertainty among investors, who are now looking to the ADP private employment report for insights into the U.S. economy [3] - Federal Reserve officials acknowledge that the absence of critical economic data has heightened uncertainty regarding the economic outlook and risks [3] - Fed Governor Cook indicated that risks related to employment and inflation have increased, suggesting a potential for interest rate cuts at the upcoming December meeting [3][4] Market Reactions and Global Context - Recent comments from Fed Chair Powell regarding the uncertainty of a December rate cut have caused market anxiety [4] - European Central Bank officials are advocating for a cautious approach, suggesting that premature adjustments to monetary policy could lead to market volatility [6] - In the UK, the Chancellor of the Exchequer announced plans to increase taxes in the upcoming autumn budget, addressing public finance pressures [6] Treasury Issuance and Debt Levels - The U.S. Treasury is set to issue a 6-week short-term bond worth $95 billion, with a 17-week short-term bond issuance planned for the following day [9] - As of October 31, the total U.S. federal debt has remained above $38 trillion for seven consecutive days, reaching a historical high of over $38.10 trillion on October 30 [9]