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日股“高市交易”迎来挑战,主要反对党考虑联合推出首相候选人
Feng Huang Wang· 2025-10-10 22:33
随着"安倍经济学"门徒高市早苗当选日本自民党总裁,基于对财政扩张政策的预期,日本基准股指本周 连创新高,日元也快速贬值至年初水平。 但就在刚刚过去的周五,高市早苗成为下一任日本首相的前景突然出现变数。 据央视新闻报道,日本公明党党魁齐藤铁夫在周五的会晤中通知高市早苗,由于对其处理"政治黑金"丑 闻的方式深感失望,公明党决定结束与自民党长达26年的合作关系。 "自公联盟"的解散,也意味着高市早苗成为日本首位女首相的前景变得更加模糊。 目前在日本众议院的465个席位中,自民党拥有196席,公明党占据24席,两者相加仍略少于半数。 作为背景,日本国会两院均将投票选举首相,如果两院结果出现分歧,则以众议院的选举结果为准。投 票将采取"两轮决胜制",如果首轮投票无人获得过半数支持,将在得票数前两位的候选人之间进行决胜 轮投票,得票多者成为下一任日本首相。 主要反对党称"机遇来了" 随着公明党退出执政联盟,在野阵营将自民党拉下台的可能性随之增加。齐藤铁夫明确表示,公明党至 少在首轮投票中不会支持高市早苗。 日本主要反对党立宪民主党的党首野田佳彦周五在播客节目中喊话称"这是十年一遇的机会",并表示愿 意支持其他党派的领导人 ...
债市日报:10月9日
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-10-09 08:53
新华财经北京10月9日电(王菁)国庆长假过后首个交易日(10月9日),债市期现券同步回暖,午后长 端品种表现更趋强势,国债期货主力全线收涨、银行间现券收益率下行1-2BPs;公开市场单日净回笼 14513亿元,月初资金利率普遍显著回落。 机构认为,10月流动性缺口可能季节性走阔,央行节前公告买断式逆回购释放了一定宽松信号,当前收 益率曲线较为平坦,后续或"先牛陡后牛平"的概率更大。 【行情跟踪】 国债期货收盘全线上涨,30年期主力合约涨0.46%报114.530,10年期主力合约涨0.15%报108.045,5年 期主力合约涨0.07%报105.730,2年期主力合约涨0.02%报102.394。 银行间主要利率债收益率普遍下行,30年期国债"25超长特别国债02"收益率下行1.25BP报2.117%,10年 期国开债"25国开15"收益率下行0.65BP报1.956%,10年期国债"25附息国债11"收益率下行1BP报 1.773%。 中证转债指数午盘上涨0.65%,报488.64点。万得可转债等权指数上涨0.70%,报238.03点。豪美转债、 微导转债、精达转债、雪榕转债、科达转债涨幅居前,分别涨13. ...
贝莱德:多重利好支撑 维持日本股票超配立场
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-09-30 06:05
此外,BII也关注人工智能主题在全球市场的发展,认为AI将持续成为驱动股市的重要因素。Powell补 充:AI不仅是科技股的催化剂,也正逐步渗透至其他产业,成为全球投资的重要主题。 展望未来一周,BII将密切关注美国就业数据的公布。报告指出,若美国劳动市场未出现明显疲弱,美 联储可能不会如市场预期般迅速降息。该行指目前通胀仍具黏性,利率可能维持高档更久,这将影响资 产配置与市场走向。 贝莱德投资研究院(BlackRock Investment Institute,BII)最新发布《每周市场评论》,认为日本股市仍是全 球投资组合中的首选之一。报告指出,日本经济稳健成长,加上持续推动有利股东的企业改革,使日本 股市表现强劲,BII维持对日本股票的超配立场。 BII中东及亚太区首席投资策略师Ben Powell表示,该行看好日本的长期潜力,企业治理改革正在发酵, 薪资上升亦有助于消费支出。即使日元近期贬值至34年新低,仍认为这不会阻碍日本股市的上升趋势。 报告指出,日本股市近期屡创新高,与美国股市徘徊在历史高位形成鲜明对比。新兴市场股票亦在今年 表现亮眼,成为全球表现最佳的资产之一。 在全球利率政策分歧的背景下,日 ...
债市日报:9月29日
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-09-29 08:11
新华财经北京9月29日电(王菁)债市周一(9月29日)重回弱势,周末公布的宏观经济数据再次强化风 险偏好,期现券再度承压调整,国债期货全线收跌,银行间现券收益率午后扩大上行幅度;公开市场单 日净投放481亿元,月末短端资金利率延续上行。 机构认为,长债在基本面持续改善等因素影响下,交投情绪谨慎偏弱。此前重启14天期逆回购,主要是 考虑到国庆长假因素,意在与近日操作的七天期逆回购到期时间错开,以避免节后资金集中到期对流动 性造成扰动。 【行情跟踪】 国债期货收盘全线下跌,30年期主力合约跌0.47%报113.720,10年期主力合约跌0.01%报107.660,5年 期主力合约跌0.04%报105.485,2年期主力合约跌0.02%报102.326。 银行间主要利率债收益率走势分化,中长券走弱,短券偏暖。10年期国开债"25国开15"收益率上行 1.25BP报1.9775%,30年期国债"25超长特别国债02"收益率上行1.75bp报2.1375%,1年期农发债"25农发 31"收益率下行1.5BP报1.565%。 中证转债指数收盘上涨0.87%,报482.19点,成交金额767.77亿元。冠中转债、景兴转债、 ...
关键通胀指标即将出炉 美债收益率周五盘前下行为主
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-09-26 14:13
新华财经北京9月26日电投资者周五(26日)密切关注一项关键通胀指标的公布,并评估美国经济的状况,美债当天小幅向上波动,收 益率下行。 周五盘前,美债收益率下行为主,截至新华财经20:30发稿时,2年期美债收益率跌1.4BP至3.649%,10年期美债收益率跌1BP至4.164%, 30年期美债收益率跌1.1BP至4.742%。 欧洲市场方面,欧债收益率周五几乎全线下行,其中10年期德债收益率跌2.8BPs至2.744%,10年期意债收益率跌3.2BPs至3.612%,10年 期法债收益率跌3.2BPs至3.572%。 其它市场方面,英债走势与欧债类似,收益率全线下行,其中2年期英债收益率跌3.2BPs至3.994%,10年期英债收益率跌3.3BP至 4.731%,30年期英债收益率跌3.5BPs至5.536%。 投资者们正期待着8月份个人消费支出指数的公布,该指数将于美国东部时间上午8:30发布,它被视为美联储青睐的通胀指标。经济学家 们预计该数据将显示通胀有所上升。 美国劳工部周四公布的数据显示,每周首次申请失业救济人数低于预期,从23.2万人降至21.8万人,也低于道琼斯的预测值23.5万人。美 国第三 ...
投资者押注日本央行加息 日债收益率触及17年高位
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-09-22 15:35
Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that investors are betting on the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates soon, leading to a significant increase in bond yields, with the 10-year Japanese government bond yield reaching its highest level in 17 years [1][3]. - On September 22, the 10-year Japanese government bond yield rose by 1.5 basis points to 1.654%, while the 2-year and 30-year yields also increased, indicating a broad sell-off in Japanese bonds [1][3]. - The 10-year yield briefly hit 1.669%, marking a 52-week high and the highest level since July 2008, reflecting investor reactions to the recent Bank of Japan policy meeting [3]. Group 2 - The Bank of Japan's recent meeting revealed that out of nine policy committee members, two proposed raising the key policy rate, although the majority voted to keep it unchanged [3]. - Japan's economy is reported to be moderately recovering, despite some signs of weakness, with consumer inflation in August rising by 2.7% compared to the previous year, although this is a slight decrease from the previous month [3]. - The average price of rice in Japanese supermarkets has reached nearly the historical high set in mid-May, with a 5-kilogram bag costing approximately 4,275 yen (about 29 USD), reflecting an increase of around 80 cents from the previous week [3].
债市日报:9月22日
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-09-22 08:07
Core Viewpoint - The bond market showed slight strengthening on September 22, with a focus on macroeconomic policies aimed at stabilizing growth, while the stock market remains favored [1][8]. Market Performance - Government bond futures closed higher across the board, with the 30-year main contract up 0.22% to 115.130, the 10-year main contract up 0.20% to 107.975, and the 5-year main contract up 0.13% to 105.770 [2]. - The yields on major interbank bonds generally declined, with the 10-year government bond yield down 1 basis point to 1.785% [2]. International Market Trends - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields rose collectively, with the 10-year yield increasing by 2.49 basis points to 4.125% [3]. - In Asia, Japanese bond yields increased, with the 10-year yield rising by 1.5 basis points to 1.654% [4]. Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) resumed 14-day reverse repo operations, injecting 2,605 billion yuan into the market, marking the first such operation in nearly eight months [6]. - The Shibor rates showed mixed performance, with the overnight rate down 3.4 basis points to 1.427% [6]. Economic Indicators - The LPR remained stable in September, with the 1-year LPR at 3% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5%, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy amid economic pressures [7]. - As of June 2023, China's banking sector assets reached nearly 470 trillion yuan, ranking first globally, with significant achievements in green finance and digital finance [8]. Institutional Insights - Huatai Securities suggests that the 10-year government bond yield may reach a short-term ceiling of 1.8-1.9%, recommending cautious positioning [9]. - Guotai Junan Securities notes that the current yield spread between local and national bonds does not offer significant value, while the yield spread for 20-year bonds is at a historically low level [9].
从狂抛800亿到猛增416亿!一年内,外资对中国债券180度大反转
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-20 14:26
Core Insights - The article discusses the ongoing shifts in global capital markets, particularly the contrasting behaviors of foreign investments in U.S. and Chinese bonds, highlighting a financial battle without direct confrontation [1][2]. Group 1: U.S. Treasury Bonds - U.S. Treasury yields have reached 5.5%-5.7%, significantly higher than China's three-year government bond yield of 2.35%, attracting global capital to the U.S. [5][6]. - In the first half of 2023, foreign holdings of Chinese government bonds decreased by approximately 80 billion yuan, with some of this capital flowing into U.S. bonds [7][11]. - The U.S. faced a potential debt default in June 2023, which heightened market fears but did not deter capital inflow due to the allure of high yields [10][15]. Group 2: Chinese Bonds - In 2024, foreign net inflows into the Chinese bond market reached 41.6 billion USD, indicating a recovery in global confidence in the Chinese economy [11]. - By the end of 2024, foreign institutions held 4.3983 trillion yuan in Chinese interbank market bonds, reflecting a growing interest despite previous reductions in holdings [11][14]. - The Chinese government is diversifying its foreign exchange reserves and reducing reliance on single assets, which is part of a broader strategy to enhance stability and predictability in its financial markets [14][19]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The article emphasizes the importance of three key factors: interest rates, stability, and expectations, which influence investment decisions in the context of geopolitical risks [14]. - The financial landscape is characterized by a continuous flow of capital, with the potential for shifts in investment strategies as conditions evolve [18][19]. - The future of global capital markets will depend on the ability of economies to maintain resilience and achieve mutual benefits through openness [19][20].
债市日报:9月19日
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-09-19 08:26
Market Overview - The bond market showed stability in the morning but weakened in the afternoon, with all major government bond futures closing down [1] - The yield on interbank bonds generally rose by about 2 basis points [1] - The central bank conducted a net injection of 124.3 billion yuan in the open market, indicating that liquidity conditions have not significantly improved [1][5] Bond Futures Performance - Government bond futures closed lower across the board, with the 30-year main contract down 0.76% to 114.800, the 10-year down 0.21% to 107.835, the 5-year down 0.13% to 105.675, and the 2-year down 0.05% to 102.364 [2] - The yield on the 10-year government bond rose by 2.15 basis points to 1.804% [2] International Bond Market - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields rose collectively, with the 10-year yield increasing by 1.15 basis points to 4.101% [3] - In Asia, Japanese bond yields mostly continued to rise, with the 10-year yield up 3.6 basis points to 1.636% [3] - In the Eurozone, the 10-year French bond yield rose by 6.1 basis points to 3.543% [3] Primary Market - The Ministry of Finance's auction results for two issues of government bonds showed a weighted average yield of 1.8321% for the 10-year bond and 2.1725% for the 30-year bond, with bid-to-cover ratios of 3.32 and 3.34 respectively [4] Liquidity Conditions - The central bank announced a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 354.3 billion yuan at a rate of 1.40%, with a net injection of 124.3 billion yuan for the day [5] - Shibor rates showed mixed performance, with the overnight rate down 5.3 basis points to 1.461% and the 14-day rate up 6.6 basis points to 1.647% [5] Institutional Insights - Long-term bond funds have not seen a significant reduction in duration despite market adjustments, with the median duration remaining around 2.5 years [6] - There is an expectation of continued government bond net financing decline, with fiscal spending intensity showing a downward trend [7] - Market expectations for the central bank to resume government bond purchases have increased, providing some support for interest rates [7]
申请失业数据回到正常水平 美债收益率周四走高
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-09-18 14:01
Group 1 - The U.S. labor department reported that initial jobless claims for the week ending September 13 were 231,000, a decrease of 33,000 from the previous week, and below the Dow Jones estimate of 240,000 [3] - The increase in jobless claims the previous week was attributed to a temporary spike in Texas, indicating no broader issues in the labor market [3] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that the recent interest rate cut was a "risk management" decision, dampening expectations for long-term rate cuts [3] Group 2 - In Europe, bond yields rose, with the 10-year German bond yield increasing by 3.3 basis points to 2.71% and the 10-year Italian bond yield rising by 4.2 basis points to 3.54% [4] - The European Central Bank is facing challenges in balancing economic growth prospects and inflation concerns, leading to a decision to maintain interest rates [4] - The Bank of England voted 7-2 to keep rates unchanged at 4%, with two members advocating for a 25 basis point cut [4] Group 3 - In the Asia-Pacific region, the Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its benchmark interest rate around 0.5%, with no significant impact anticipated from the Federal Reserve's rate cut [5] - Japanese bond yields mostly rose, with the 2-year yield increasing by 0.7 basis points to 0.885% [7] - The U.S. Treasury plans to issue $204 billion in bonds, including $100 billion in 4-week and $85 billion in 8-week short-term bonds [7]