Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing strong fluctuations, with short-term impacts from tax adjustments, but the medium to long-term outlook remains supported by fundamentals, liquidity, and demand for allocation [1] Market Performance - On August 5, the bond market showed a strong upward trend, with government bond futures mostly rising. The 30-year main contract increased by 0.06% to 119.320, while the 10-year main contract rose by 0.05% to 108.540 [2] - The yield on the 30-year government bond decreased by 0.25 basis points to 1.914%, and the yields on the 10-year government bonds fell by approximately 0.5 basis points [2] Overseas Bond Market - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields collectively fell, with the 10-year yield down by 2.35 basis points to 4.196% [3] - In Asia, Japanese bond yields also declined, with the 10-year yield down by 3.9 basis points to 1.47% [3] - In the Eurozone, the 10-year French bond yield decreased by 6.3 basis points to 3.282% [3] Primary Market - The China Development Bank's three financial bonds had winning yields below the China Bond valuation, with yields for 2-year, 5-year, and 10-year bonds at 1.5255%, 1.6408%, and 1.7546% respectively [4] - Agricultural Development Bank's 2-year financial bonds had winning yields of 1.5550% and 1.7033% [4] Liquidity and Funding - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 160.7 billion yuan at a rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 288.5 billion yuan for the day [5] - The Shibor short-term rates mostly declined, with the overnight rate rising slightly by 0.1 basis points to 1.315% [5] Institutional Views - Longjiang Fixed Income expects liquidity to remain reasonably ample in August, with funding rates likely to stay low, but regulatory goals may prevent further declines [7] - CITIC Securities notes that the bond market is experiencing a significant bearish steepening trend, with expectations for stabilization in interest rates [7] - Huatai Fixed Income suggests a flexible approach to trading, with a focus on opportunities above a 10-year government bond yield of 1.7% [7]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain interest rates unchanged for the fifth time, keeping the federal funds rate between 4.25% and 4.5% since December of the previous year [3] - The U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of 3% in the second quarter, surpassing economists' expectations of 2.3%, indicating a recovery from a contraction of 0.5% in the first quarter [4] - The yield on 2-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose by 8 basis points to 3.94%, while the 10-year yield increased by 6 basis points to 4.324%, reflecting investor reactions to the Fed's decision [1][3] Group 2 - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) had a 9-2 vote against lowering interest rates, marking the first time since 1993 that two members opposed the majority opinion [3] - Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the importance of maintaining long-term inflation expectations and indicated that no decision has been made regarding the September meeting [3] - The cautious stance of Powell led to a decrease in market expectations for a rate cut in September, which was viewed as a victory for the Fed [3] Group 3 - President Trump announced a comprehensive trade agreement with South Korea, setting export tariffs at 15%, which caused a significant drop in copper prices and affected mining companies [4] - The impact of tariffs on the economy is complex, as businesses and consumers rushed to purchase imports before new taxes were implemented, disrupting normal consumption patterns [4] - Santander's chief U.S. economist noted that the effects of tariffs on the economy take longer to materialize than expected [4] Group 4 - In the European bond market, government bond yields showed slight fluctuations, with the 10-year German bond yield rising by 0.2 basis points to 2.708% [5] - In the Asia-Pacific market, Japanese bond yields also increased slightly, with the 2-year yield rising by 0.6 basis points to 0.829% [7] - The U.S. Treasury is set to issue $180 billion in bonds, including $95 billion in 4-week and $85 billion in 8-week short-term bonds [7]

Group 1 - Global stock markets surged on July 23 due to the US-Japan trade agreement, leading to a decline in market risk aversion and a shift from bonds to stocks [1] - US Treasury yields rose slightly, with the 2-year yield increasing by 5 basis points to 3.88%, the 10-year yield rising by 5 basis points to 4.4%, and the 30-year yield up by 5 basis points to 4.95% [1] - The focus is now on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting on July 29-30, where it is widely expected that interest rates will remain unchanged despite political pressure for cuts [3] Group 2 - The S&P 500 index is expected to rise further as the US economy withstands the global trade war, although unpredictable trade policies and attacks on the Fed's independence could trigger market declines [4] - European stock markets rose on hopes of a trade agreement, with bond yields increasing across the board, including a 6.7 basis point rise in the 10-year German bond yield to 2.666% [4] - In the Asia-Pacific region, Australian bond yields also rose, with the 2-year yield increasing by 2 basis points to 3.355% and the 10-year yield up by 3.6 basis points to 4.332% [4] Group 3 - Japanese bond yields increased overall, with the 10-year yield reaching a high of 1.6010%, the highest since October 2008, before closing at 1.594% [8] - The US Treasury plans to issue $201 billion in bonds, including $95 billion in 4-week and $85 billion in 8-week short-term bonds, amid expectations of significant short-term debt issuance [8][9] - The actual net financing needs of the US Treasury in Q2 reached $514 billion, exceeding earlier estimates by $391 billion, indicating a strong demand for short-term bonds [9]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing adjustments with government bond futures declining across the board, while interbank bond yields are rising slightly. The market is influenced by short-term emotional shocks, but the fundamental economic data remains under various influences, indicating that the logic of monetary easing is still intact for the long term [1][6]. Market Performance - Government bond futures closed lower, with the 30-year main contract down 0.21% to 119.27, the 10-year main contract down 0.11% to 108.52, the 5-year main contract down 0.09% to 105.79, and the 2-year main contract down 0.03% to 102.38 [2]. - Interbank bond yields generally increased, with the 30-year government bond yield rising 0.25 basis points to 1.911%, the 10-year policy bank bond yield up 0.5 basis points to 1.7825%, and the 10-year government bond yield up 0.75 basis points to 1.7% [2]. Overseas Bond Market - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board, with the 2-year yield down 2.31 basis points to 3.8292% and the 10-year yield down 3.17 basis points to 4.344% [3]. - In Asia, Japanese bond yields mostly rose, with the 10-year yield increasing 8.5 basis points to 1.588% [3]. - In the Eurozone, yields on 10-year bonds also decreased, with the UK yield down 3.3 basis points to 4.568% [3]. Primary Market - Agricultural Development Bank's financial bonds had winning yields of 1.3695%, 1.6649%, and 1.7888% for 1.074-year, 3-year, and 10-year terms, respectively, with bid-to-cover ratios of 2.54, 3.26, and 3.76 [4]. - The Ministry of Finance's 91-day and 182-day treasury bonds had weighted winning yields of 1.2231% and 1.3243%, with bid-to-cover ratios of 3.28 and 2.3 [4]. Funding Conditions - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 150.5 billion yuan at a rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 369.6 billion yuan for the day [5]. - Shibor rates for short-term products mostly increased, with the overnight rate rising 5.0 basis points to 1.367% [5]. Institutional Perspectives - Citic Securities noted that the recent bond market adjustment reflects various factors, including "anti-involution" and water conservancy projects, suggesting that while short-term concerns exist, long-term opportunities may arise [6]. - Huatai Fixed Income highlighted that the bond market adjustment is driven by changes in three core logics, including strong performance of risk assets and marginal corrections in fundamental expectations [6]. - Hongze Fixed Income pointed out that despite the ongoing adjustments, there are still structural opportunities in the bond market, with a shift in focus from extremes to the middle ground [6].

Market Overview - The bond market returned to a weak state on July 18, with most government bond futures closing lower and interbank bond yields generally rising by 0.5-1 basis points [1][2] - The central bank conducted a net injection of 102.8 billion yuan in the open market, while short-term funding rates continued to decline [1][6] Bond Futures and Yields - The 30-year main contract fell by 0.22% to 120.460, the 10-year main contract decreased by 0.08% to 108.790, and the 5-year main contract dropped by 0.05% to 105.990 [2] - The yield on the 10-year "25附息国债11" rose by 0.5 basis points to 1.666%, while the 30-year "25超长特别国债02" increased by 0.75 basis points to 1.875% [2] International Bond Markets - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields were mixed, with the 2-year yield rising by 1.06 basis points to 3.896% and the 10-year yield falling by 0.80 basis points to 4.449% [3] - In Asia, Japanese bond yields fell across the board, with the 10-year yield down by 2.8 basis points to 1.53% [4] Market Sentiment and Predictions - Institutions believe that the low-volatility bond market trend continues, with expectations of policy adjustments increasing towards the end of July [1][8] - According to Zhongjin Company, if the Federal Reserve Chair leaves office early, it would negatively impact the dollar and positively affect gold, while Southwest Securities noted that convertible bond valuations are at a relatively low level [7][8] Fund Flows and Liquidity - The central bank announced a 1.875 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation at a rate of 1.4%, with a net injection of 102.8 billion yuan for the day [6] - Short-term Shibor rates mostly declined, with the overnight rate down by 0.1 basis points to 1.462% [6]

Group 1 - Foreign investment in Japanese government bonds reached 170.4 billion yen for the week ending July 11, indicating a significant inflow compared to the previous week's revised outflow of 167.8 billion yen [1]

Market Overview - The bond market weakened again on July 16, with most government bond futures closing down, while the overall fluctuation remained small [1] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) indicated a neutral stance on the bond market during the financial statistics press conference, announcing an excess continuation of reverse repos, reflecting a strong demand for moderately loose monetary policy to support growth [1] Bond Futures - The 30-year main contract fell by 0.05% to 120.710, the 10-year main contract fell by 0.05% to 108.835, the 5-year main contract fell by 0.01% to 106.000, and the 2-year main contract rose by 0.01% to 102.424 [2] - The yield on the 2-year "25附息国债06" decreased by 0.75 basis points to 1.385%, while the 10-year "25附息国债11" increased by 0.5 basis points to 1.6595% [2] International Bond Markets - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields rose collectively, with the 2-year yield increasing by 3.79 basis points to 3.934% and the 10-year yield rising by 4.80 basis points to 4.481% [3] - In Asia, the 10-year Japanese government bond yield fell by 1.1 basis points to 1.579% [4] - In the Eurozone, the 10-year French bond yield decreased by 2.6 basis points to 3.404%, while the German 10-year bond yield fell by 1.7 basis points to 2.710% [4] Primary Market - The Ministry of Finance reported weighted average winning yields for 91-day and 182-day government bonds at 1.2069% and 1.2654%, respectively, with bid-to-cover ratios of 3.44 and 2.29 [5] Liquidity Conditions - The PBOC conducted a reverse repo operation of 520.1 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.4%, resulting in a net injection of 444.6 billion yuan for the day [6] - The Shibor rates for short-term instruments collectively declined, with the overnight rate down by 6.9 basis points to 1.466% [6] Institutional Insights - Huazhong Securities noted that insufficient supply and strong demand continue to dominate the urban investment bond market, with net repayments in June amounting to 655 billion yuan, a decrease of approximately 590 million yuan compared to the previous month [7] - CITIC Securities observed that government bonds continued to perform well, with credit issuance showing signs of recovery and social financing increasing year-on-year, aligning with expectations [7]

Group 1 - Investors are eagerly awaiting the upcoming U.S. inflation data, which could influence the Federal Reserve's next steps [1][4] - The U.S. Treasury yields showed mixed movements, with short-term yields rising and long-term yields declining [1][4] - The U.S. Labor Department is set to release the inflation report on July 15 at 8:30 AM ET [3] Group 2 - Economists surveyed by Reuters expect the overall inflation rate for June to rise from 2.4% in May to 2.7%, while core inflation is anticipated to increase from 2.8% to 3.0% [4] - The consumer price index for June is projected to increase by 2.6% year-over-year, up from 2.4% in May, with housing prices expected to rise by 0.3% month-over-month, the largest increase since January [4] - If tariffs begin to show a significant impact on the CPI data, the U.S. bond market may experience sell-offs due to heightened inflation risks [5] Group 3 - JPMorgan's CEO highlighted the resilience of the U.S. economy in the current quarter, despite ongoing risks such as tariffs and geopolitical uncertainties [5] - The Federal Reserve is cautious about lowering short-term interest rates until they observe how the economy reacts to the tariffs [5] - The White House has criticized the Federal Reserve's management, particularly regarding the renovation costs of its buildings, which have exceeded initial budgets by approximately one-third [6] Group 4 - In the European market, bond yields fell across the board, with the 10-year German bond yield dropping to 2.707% [7] - The UK market is facing investor concerns due to economic slowdown and rising government debt nearing 100% of GDP [7] - In the Asia-Pacific market, the Japanese yen has depreciated against major currencies, raising concerns about Japan's economic slowdown [8]

Core Viewpoint - Japanese Economy Minister Akira Amari did not comment on the trend of Japanese government bonds [1] Group 1 - The lack of commentary from the Japanese Economy Minister may indicate a cautious approach towards the current state of the bond market [1]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have surged over 25% since January 1, 2025, reaching a historic high of $3,500 per ounce, currently fluctuating around $3,300, with differing opinions on whether the gold bull market has ended or will continue to rise [1][4] Group 1: Market Trends and Predictions - Citigroup predicts a decline in gold prices due to reduced investment demand from improved global economic growth and geopolitical tensions easing, forecasting prices to drop to $2,500 to $2,700 per ounce by mid-2026 [1] - Conversely, Goldman Sachs maintains a bullish outlook, projecting gold prices to reach $3,700 per ounce by the end of 2025 [1] - The World Gold Council's survey indicates that 81% of central banks expect to increase their gold holdings in the next 12 months, the highest since the survey began in 2018 [4] - By June 2025, this figure rose to 95%, indicating a strong trend of central banks accumulating gold [4] Group 2: Central Bank Activities - Central banks are projected to purchase a record 1,100 tons of gold in 2024, a 5.8% increase year-on-year, with expectations to exceed 1,250 tons in 2025 [4] - In May 2025, central banks net purchased 20 tons of gold, demonstrating their commitment to gold accumulation despite high prices [5] Group 3: Economic and Geopolitical Factors - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, including conflicts in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine war, contribute to the perception of gold as a safe-haven asset [6][8] - The relationship between gold and the US dollar is shifting, with gold increasingly seen as a hedge against currency devaluation and economic instability [11] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The current market conditions suggest that it may be a favorable time for investors to consider buying gold, as it serves as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty [1][11] - The "golden circulation framework" proposed by Hong Academy emphasizes the importance of monitoring key indicators to assess gold's long-term trends [3]