也有人认为，黄金牛市还未结束，2025年后半段金价还会上冲。7月8日高盛就重申了对2025年底黄金价格3700美元/盎司的目标预测！ 作为普通投资者，现在是买黄金的好机会吗？ 2024年1月27日，鸿学院在2023年终盛典提出打响黄金与白银的"人民战争"，明确表示世界人民深受货币贬值之苦，保护身家财富刻不容缓！ 2025年1月1日至今，金价已累计上涨超过25%，并创下每盎司3500美元的历史新高，只是近期一直在每盎司3300美元的高位震荡。 从历史上看，这是在前所未有的高位上"震荡"。 有人认为，黄金牛市已经结束，已经进入了下跌周期。 7月1日，花旗发布研报称，由于中东地缘事件降温以及全球经济增长前景改善，黄金的投资需求将下降，从而推动金价回落，黄金市场将出现根本性疲 软。到2026年下半年，金价将回落至2500至2700美元每盎司。 如果从那时候开始计算，金价已经上涨超过160%！ 最重要的就是全球央行态度。 2024年6月，世界黄金协会公布的《央行黄金储备调查》：81%的央行认为黄金持有量将在未来十二个月有所增加，创下2018年启动本项调查以来的最高 比例。当时花旗表示，2024年各国央行将创纪录购买约1 ...

金十数据7月9日讯，道富环球市场策略师Marija Veitmane指出，托管数据库显示，机构投资者在6月份 增加了其投资组合的风险敞口，但同时大幅减持美债和美元资产。这一点尤其引人注目，因为投资者在 这两类资产中的持仓已处于多年来的最低水平。她还提到，投资者继续对这两项资产的传统避险地位提 出质疑。无论是第一季度美股的抛售、第二季度日益加剧的财政可持续性担忧，还是最近中东冲突的爆 发，都没有引发市场对美元或美债的买入热潮。这种抛售美债的趋势与对日债和欧债的增持形成鲜明对 比。 机构：美债美元遭历史性抛售 资金正涌向其他避险市场 ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing slight differentiation in performance, with economic data having minimal impact on market movements. The overall environment has not shown a significant turning point, leading to expectations of narrow fluctuations in the bond market in the short term [1][9]. Market Performance - Government bond futures closed mostly higher, with the 30-year main contract up 0.19% at 121.090, the 10-year main contract up 0.05% at 109.050, and the 5-year main contract up 0.03% at 106.160. The 2-year main contract remained flat at 102.464 [2]. - The yield on major interbank bonds generally rose slightly, with the 30-year government bond yield increasing by 0.25 basis points to 1.8635%, and the 10-year government bond yield rising by 0.3 basis points to 1.646% [2]. Overseas Market Trends - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields rose across the board, with the 10-year yield increasing by 2.38 basis points to 4.401% [3]. - In Asia, Japanese bond yields, except for ultra-long maturities, generally increased, with the 10-year yield rising by 0.9 basis points to 1.498% [4]. Primary Market Activity - Gansu Province's local bond auction results showed bid multiples exceeding 26 times, with the 20-year bond yielding 2.04% and the 10-year bond yielding 1.74% [5]. - Jilin Province's local bond auction also had bid multiples over 26 times, with the 7-year bond yielding 1.65% [5]. Funding Conditions - The central bank conducted a 755 billion yuan reverse repo operation at a rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 230 billion yuan for the day [6]. - Shibor rates showed mixed performance, with the overnight rate rising by 0.1 basis points to 1.313% and the 7-day rate increasing by 0.9 basis points to 1.464% [6]. Economic Indicators - June CPI rose by 0.1% year-on-year, marking a shift from four consecutive months of decline, while PPI fell by 3.6% year-on-year [7][8]. - The increase in CPI was primarily driven by a reduction in the decline of industrial consumer goods prices, which narrowed from a 1.0% drop to 0.5% [8]. Institutional Insights - Citic Securities noted a certain degree of preemptive positioning in the bond market, with overall trading density decreasing compared to June. The market lacks short-term catalysts, and the potential for rate declines may be limited [9]. - Huatai Fixed Income suggested a slightly bullish outlook for the bond market, although the space for growth is limited due to low credit spreads [9].

今年，继关税问题引发冲突不断，国际债券市场也烽烟四起。 中国持续减持美债，我国现在仅持有7500亿美元左右，相比巅峰期减少近一半。 到4月份，美债抛售情况越发严重，单月被美国之外的投资者净抛售500多亿美元。 为什么大家都选择抛售美债？与其负债情况有关。 目前中美日三国政府都在不断增加负债，三国负债与其去年GDP的占比为65%、138%和219%。 一般来说，占比超过60%以上，代表国家有较高的偿债风险，其国债就会面临持续被抛售的情况。 以上来看，中美日三国都有风险。 虽然三国债务创历史新高，但可能还远没有达到顶点，目前各国经济发展面临较大压力，政府需要更多资金来支持和刺激经济，否则就有衰退风险。 当负债远超GDP的60%，甚至100%、200%，这种前所未有的情况到底会如何演变？ 先说美国。 美国整个国家都喜欢贷款消费，当政府钱不够用就会发行国债，债务雪球也越滚越大。 截至5月末，美联邦负债高达36.2万亿美元，而地方的负债也达到了约4万亿美元，总负债已经超过了40万亿美元。 | | (Millions of dollars) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | Amou ...

Global Economic Overview - The global economy is experiencing an unprecedented debt crisis, with rising government debts and increasing repayment risks, particularly in the US and Japan, while China remains relatively stable but faces challenges [1][22]. US Debt Situation - As of the end of May, the total federal debt in the US reached $36.2 trillion, with local government debt around $4 trillion, totaling over $40 trillion [3]. - The US debt market is facing a supply-demand imbalance, with a recent $720 billion bond auction failing, prompting the Federal Reserve to purchase over $40 billion in bonds in a month [8]. - The yield on US Treasury bonds has surged from approximately 0.5% in 2020 to 4.4% currently, leading to an increase in interest payments, which could reach $1.1 trillion from 2020 to 2024 [6][8]. Japan's Debt Crisis - Japan's government debt exceeds 1,323 trillion yen (approximately $9.2 trillion), accounting for 219% of its GDP, which is significantly higher than other major economies [13]. - The Bank of Japan's Yield Curve Control (YCC) policy, which involved unlimited bond purchases, was halted last year, leading to a decline in bond prices and rising credit risks [14]. China's Debt Challenges - As of May, China's government debt stood at 88.1 trillion yuan (approximately $12.3 trillion), representing 65% of its GDP, with a significant amount of hidden debt, particularly in local government financing [17][18]. - The Chinese government has implemented a 10 trillion yuan plan to address local government debt and has been reducing interest rates to lower repayment costs [18]. Conclusion on Global Economic Trends - The trend of de-dollarization is becoming more apparent, providing China with an opportunity to challenge the dominance of the US dollar and establish a more equitable international economic order [22].

全球市场正在等待美国关税谈判结果为7月行情定价。 面对7月9日关税重启的最后期限，叠加美国参议院通过"大而美"税收和支出法案，市场对于美元前景普遍看 淡。自4月份美国所谓"对等关税"以来，美元指数下跌超7%，而亚洲货币集体反弹，普遍上涨到了去年10月份 以来新高。 面对美国关税不确定性增大，市场规避风险倾向明显，防御性资产成为部分资金的首要选择。而绝对估值处于 全球洼地的港股市场，有望迎来更多资金注入，伴随国内公司治理水平不断提高，低估值蓝筹的重估已经在进 行当中。 "短期要重点关注90天暂停到期关税层面的变数和7月份美债和日债市场是否会引起全球金融市场的动荡。"兴 业证券最新研报也提醒道。由于美国关税谈判存在较大的不确定性，市场警惕重演4月初的冲击波，当时在美 出台所谓"对等关税"影响下，全球股债汇市场出现大幅震荡。 当前，各大机构都在等待尘埃落定后再做抉择，而不是提前下注，防御性资产成为相当部分资金的首要选择。 而港股市场受到海外和内地资金流动性的综合影响，其对美联储政策、地缘政治、汇率波动的影响更敏感，也 成为避险资金首选。 5月份以来，伴随美元的持续贬值，香港Hibor利率（香港银行同业拆息利率）也在 ...

债市周二（7月1日）延续偏强，国债期货主力多数收涨，银行间现券收益率小幅回落，振幅普遍在 0.5BP-1BP；公开市场单日净回笼2755亿元，月初资金利率全线显著回落。 机构认为，三季度或进入宽信用政策效果兑现期，需要关注对债市情绪的影响，同时新型政策性金融工 具额度或有望下达，进而提振经济金融数据表现。考虑到货币政策宽松、固收资管产品规模维持增长、 海外不确定因素仍存等，下半年债市环境仍较为顺风。 【行情跟踪】 国债期货收盘多数上涨，30年期主力合约涨0.28%报120.740，10年期主力合约涨0.10%报109.005，5年 期主力合约涨0.06%报106.205，2年期主力合约跌0.01%报102.488。 银行间主要利率债收益率小幅回落，30年期国债"25超长特别国债02"收益率下行0.25BP至1.858%，10年 期国开债"25国开10"收益率下行0.5BP至1.72%，10年期国债"25附息国债11"收益率下行0.3BP至 1.646%，7年期国债"25附息国债07"收益率下行0.25BP至1.585%。 中证转债指数收盘上涨0.48%，报445.78点，成交金额627.77亿元。飞鹿转债、应 ...

Market Overview - The bond market returned to a weak state on June 30, with all major government bond futures closing lower and interbank bond yields generally rising by 1-2 basis points [1][2] - The central bank conducted a net injection of 111 billion yuan in the open market, while short-term cross-quarter funding rates continued to rise [1][5] Bond Futures and Yields - The closing prices for government bond futures showed declines: 30-year futures down 0.43% to 120.420, 10-year down 0.16% to 108.895, 5-year down 0.10% to 106.160, and 2-year down 0.05% to 102.498 [2] - Major interbank bond yields increased, with the 30-year government bond yield rising by 1.05 basis points to 1.8635%, and the 10-year government bond yield increasing by 0.6 basis points to 1.728% [2] International Bond Market - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields rose across the board, with the 2-year yield increasing by 3.47 basis points to 3.746% and the 10-year yield rising by 3.13 basis points to 4.271% [3] - In Asia, Japanese bond yields showed mixed results, with the 10-year yield down 0.2 basis points to 1.428% [3] - In the Eurozone, 10-year bond yields for France, Germany, Italy, and Spain all increased, with the German yield rising by 2.1 basis points to 2.587% [3] Primary Market - Agricultural Development Bank's three issues of financial bonds had bidding yields lower than the China Bond valuation, with yields for 91-day, 3-year, and 5-year bonds at 1.3068%, 1.5473%, and 1.6197% respectively [4] Funding Conditions - The central bank announced a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 331.5 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40%, with a net injection of 111 billion yuan for the day [5] - Short-term Shibor rates rose across the board, with the overnight rate up 5.1 basis points to 1.422% and the 7-day rate up 9.5 basis points to 1.763% [5] Economic Indicators - The official non-manufacturing PMI for June was 50.5, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating continued expansion in the non-manufacturing sector [6][7] - The official manufacturing PMI for June was 49.7, showing an improvement from the previous value of 49.5, indicating a slight recovery in manufacturing activity [6][7] Institutional Insights - Huatai Fixed Income noted that the bond market is currently crowded, with high leverage and low credit spreads, suggesting potential volatility risks ahead [8] - CITIC Fixed Income indicated that the central bank's net injection model may continue into July, with expectations of a better liquidity environment compared to June [8]

转自：新华财经 新华财经北京6月26日电 随着投资者开始再次担心特朗普总统考虑更换美联储主席鲍威尔，美债收益率周四（26日）盘前走低，10年期 美债收益率一度下跌逾2BPs。 周四当天盘前，美债小幅波动，截至新华财经晚间20:30发稿时，2年期美债收益率下跌1.1BP至3.768%，10年期美债收益率下1BP至 4.285%，30年期美债收益率下跌0.3BP至4.839%。 长期以来，美国的银行业一直在游说降低SLR。财政部长贝森特说，降低SLR的提议将允许银行购买更多美债，从而有助于支撑全球市 场。 数据方面，投资者期待定于周四上午公布的每周初请失业金人数数据以及将于周五公布的5月个人消费支出指数。 欧洲市场方面，欧债收益率周四开盘后全线下行，其中10年期德债收益率跌1.7BP至2.544%，10年期意债收益率跌4.5BPs至3.4464%，10 年期法债收益率跌2.5BPs至3.232%。 其它市场方面，英债走势分化，3个月、6个月英债以及20年期、30年期英债收益率小幅上行，2年期英债收益率跌2.6BPs至3.834%，10 年期英债收益率微跌0.5BP至4.476%。 当地时间周三上午，鲍威尔在美国参 ...

日本至6月20日当周外资买进日债 -3688亿日元，前值4345亿日元。 ...