【行情跟踪】 新华财经北京2月27日电债市周五（2月27日）震荡回暖，国债期货主力多数收涨，银行间现券收益率普 遍回落1BP左右；公开市场单日净投放2690亿元，跨月流动性基本无虞，资金利率明显转为下行。 机构认为，本周行情调整尽管有"沪七条"带来的一定利空影响，但更多是交易盘的止盈和反手做空。不 过今日市场表现显示，配置力度增强将使多空力量逐渐趋向均衡。尤其在两会即将到来的背景下，观望 情绪或使得长债转入区间震荡运行，但10年期国债修复至1.80%下方的可能性较为有限。 辽宁省地方债中标结果显示，投标倍数均超27倍。具体来看，10年期"26辽宁债08"中标利率2.03%，全 场倍数27.51，边际倍数1.45。 【资金面】 国债期货收盘多数上涨，30年期主力合约跌0.07%报112.07，10年期主力合约涨0.05%报108.395，5年期 主力合约涨0.04%报106.005，2年期主力合约涨0.03%报102.456。 银行间主要利率债收益率多数下行，10年期国开债"25国开20"收益率下行0.65BP报1.975%，10年期国 债"25附息国债22"收益率下行0.85BP报1.809%，30年期国债" ...

1月份日债收益率飙升，吸引海外资金流入。据日本证券交易协会数据，1月日债净购买额达6.04万亿日 元，仅次于2023年3月创下的6.08万亿日元纪录。 资金流入短期推升日元走强，但高盛认为只要宏观大环境保持风险偏好、利率差异维持稳定且财政扩张 计划继续推进，日元的贬值压力就将持续存在。 据追风交易台，高盛在2月19日发布报告《日本资金回流值得关注哪些方面？》。报告指出最新的官方 数据没有迹象表明日本资金正在大规模抛售海外资产并回流国内，押注日本资产将迎来重大资金转向的 投资者大概率会面临失望。 具体来看，散户和非对冲投资者（如养老金）并未改变其行为模式。以NISA（日本个人储蓄账户）为 代表的散户资金在2026年1月继续通过投资信托强劲买入外国股票。 对于非对冲投资者而言，当前的日美利差仍然过大，不足以触发大规模的债券回流。像GPIF（日本政 府养老投资基金）这样的巨头，在2030年或下一次定期战略审查之前，不太可能做出重大配置调整。 对冲投资者（主要是银行）的动向虽然可能对日元构成一定支撑，但力度有限。反直觉的是，目前随着 大多数发达市场央行降息而日本央行加息，对于对冲投资者来说，日债的相对吸引力由于对冲成 ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond market shows slight differentiation in performance, with government bond futures experiencing a decline while interbank bond yields continue to decrease, indicating a "warm yet restrained" market sentiment ahead of the Spring Festival [1][4]. Market Performance - Government bond futures closed with half of the contracts down; the 30-year main contract fell by 0.03% to 112.7, while the 10-year main contract rose by 0.02% to 108.585 [2]. - Interbank bond yields generally decreased, with the 10-year government bond yield down by 1 basis point to 1.776% and the 30-year government bond yield down by 0.15 basis points to 2.2255% [2]. Overseas Bond Market - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields rose across the board, with the 2-year yield increasing by 6.41 basis points to 3.512% [3]. - In Asia, Japanese bond yields fell, with the 5-year and 10-year yields down by 0.4 basis points and 1.2 basis points, respectively [3]. - In the Eurozone, yields on 10-year bonds from France, Germany, Italy, and Spain all decreased, indicating a general trend of declining yields [3]. Liquidity Conditions - The central bank conducted a net injection of 448 billion yuan through reverse repos, with a total of 1665 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos and 4000 billion yuan in 14-day reverse repos [4]. - The Shibor rates for short-term instruments mostly declined, with the overnight rate rising slightly by 0.2 basis points to 1.368% [4]. Institutional Perspectives - Citic Securities noted that while CPI remains low, PPI is steadily rising, which may have a marginal impact on bond market pricing; the sentiment-driven bond market may continue to show slight strength until the Spring Festival [5]. - Shenwan Hongyuan indicated that the bond market may enter a phase of compressed spreads, with ongoing market dynamics influenced by the balance of asset allocation and the potential for capital to flow from bonds to equities [6].

全球秩序从单极化向多极化演进，正在系统性地重塑全球大类资产的定价逻辑。 新华社2月9日援引日本广播协会开票数据报道，在8日举行的日本众议院选举中，自民党获得316个议席，执政联盟赢得过半数议席。我们此前在《2026年潜 在的六只地缘"黑天鹅"》中曾指出，"亚太地区机会主义主体的战略冒险"是2026年需关注的重要地缘风险之一。 年初以来，日本资本市场出现大幅波动，日元、日债双双走弱，日元避险属性明显弱化。近期，在日本政府的引导下，情绪面虽暂获安抚，市场呈现企稳迹 象。但我们认为，日元与日债此番呈现的结构性变化，其深层次原因不能简单归因于短期经济波动，而应置于更宏大的叙事框架下理解——全球秩序正从单 极化向多极化深刻演进，这一进程正在系统性地重塑全球大类资产的定价逻辑，日本资产的波动正是该逻辑转换的具体体现。 二战后日本地缘地位分为两个阶段： 第一阶段：冷战时期（二战后至苏联解体前），日本是美国在亚洲的"桥头堡"。该阶段，日本成为美国在冷战期间影响亚洲的关键支点，至少先后发挥了三 重作用：二战结束后初期，日本作为补给基地，延伸了美国的工业生产链，支持其在亚洲的军事活动；随着冷战进入中期，意识形态与发展模式竞争加剧 ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing a period of consolidation, with the 10-year government bond yield breaking below its recent trading range, indicating potential resistance at the 1.80% level, which may act as a support if maintained by the central bank [1][7]. Market Performance - The closing performance of government bond futures showed mixed results, with the 30-year and 10-year contracts slightly up, while the 5-year and 2-year contracts remained unchanged [2]. - The interbank market saw a continuation of a warm trend in major interest rate bonds, with notable declines in yields for various government bonds [2]. Overseas Market Trends - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields mostly fell, with the 10-year yield at 4.202%, while the 30-year yield increased slightly [3]. - Asian markets saw a decline in Japanese bond yields, while European markets also reported decreases in yields for various government bonds [3]. Primary Market Activity - The Ministry of Finance reported weighted average yields for newly issued government bonds, with the 7-year bond at 1.6130% and a strong bid-to-cover ratio across different maturities [4]. - The China Development Bank's financial bonds also showed competitive yields and bid-to-cover ratios, indicating healthy demand [4]. Liquidity Conditions - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation, injecting 205.9 billion yuan into the market, with a fixed interest rate of 1.40% [5]. - Short-term Shibor rates increased across various maturities, indicating tightening liquidity conditions [5]. Institutional Insights - Analysts suggest that the 10-year bond yield's downward space is limited below 1.80%, with significant buying pressure from funds and brokerages [6][7]. - The current market sentiment is relatively subdued, with no strong catalysts to push long-term rates beyond their current range, especially ahead of the upcoming holiday [7].

新华社2月9日援引日本广播协会开票数据报道，在8日举行的日本众议院选举中，自民党获得316个议 席，执政联盟赢得过半数议席。我们此前在《2026年潜在的六只地缘"黑天鹅"》中曾指出，"亚太地区 机会主义主体的战略冒险"是2026年需关注的重要地缘风险之一。在1月27日的报告《日元日债稳住了 吗？——多极化进程中的日本资产逻辑嬗变》中，我们已就涉日地缘变化对日元、日债市场的影响展开 分析。结合此次日本大选的最新结果，现将相关内容整理如下，供投资者参考： 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：王涵论宏观 要点 日元日债稳住了吗？这个问题需要在全球秩序变化的大框架来讨论。年初以来，日本资本市场出现大幅 波动，日元、日债双双走弱，日元避险属性明显弱化。近期，在日本政府的干预与引导下，情绪面虽暂 获安抚，市场呈现企稳迹象。但我们认为，日元与日债此番呈现的结构性变化，其深层次原因不能简单 归因于短期经济波动，而应置于更宏大的叙事框架下理解——正如我们在去年底发布的报告兴证王涵 | 2026年展望：叙事映射！中所指出的，全球秩序正从单极化向多极化深刻演进，这一进程正在系统性地 重塑 ...

Group 1 - The ruling coalition led by Kishi Nobuo won over two-thirds of the seats in the Japanese House of Representatives, paving the way for further fiscal stimulus policies [1] - Analysts suggest that the unexpected victory of the ruling coalition may lead to a resurgence of "Kishi trading," with pressure on the yen and potential upward volatility in the Japanese stock market [1] - The victory of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) may result in continued depreciation of the yen in the short term, with a higher likelihood of foreign exchange intervention by Japanese authorities if key levels are breached [1] Group 2 - Political uncertainty is decreasing, and combined with "dual easing" policies, this may provide temporary support for the valuation of Japanese risk assets [1] - Despite the potential for fiscal expansion and slow interest rate hikes under Kishi's administration, concerns about the yen's exchange rate are increasing, especially if it approaches critical levels such as 160 yen per dollar [1] - The Japanese authorities have already signaled a willingness to intervene in the currency market, which could increase if the yen crosses significant thresholds [1]

地缘格局变动与美国势力范围收缩，是本次日债、日元动荡的根本原因。美国硬实力相对衰落，对外资产扩张速度放缓，削弱了其通过日本等盟友进行资 本杠杆操作的能力与意愿。同时，美国在亚洲的战略调整，为日本国内政治右倾与战略冒险倾向提供了空间，潜在破坏了自上世纪七八十年代以来形成的 相对稳定的区域安全框架。市场开始重新评估日本资产所依托的地缘安全基础，其"避险"光环随之褪色，这直接反映在日元与日债价格的同步调整上。 尽管日本政府干预能在短期内稳定市场情绪，但中期来看，日元与日债的基础依然脆弱。日本当局的引导，能够暂时平缓市场波动、缓解流动性压力。然 而，这些措施无法从根本上扭转因地缘角色转变而引发的资产逻辑嬗变。只要日本被持续置于大国博弈的前沿，其资产所蕴含的地缘政治风险溢价就将持 续存在，甚至可能随着区域紧张局势的起伏而放大，使得日元和日债难以恢复过往的稳定"避险"地位。 来源：王涵论宏观 新华社2月9日援引日本广播协会开票数据报道，在8日举行的日本众议院选举中，自民党获得316个议席，执政联盟赢得过半数议席。我们此前在《2026年 潜在的六只地缘"黑天鹅"》中曾指出，"亚太地区机会主义主体的战略冒险"是2026年需关 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the structural changes in Japan's asset market, particularly the yen and Japanese government bonds, in the context of the global shift from a unipolar to a multipolar order, which is reshaping the pricing logic of global assets [2][4][25]. Group 1: Japan's Geopolitical Role - Japan's geopolitical position has evolved through two main phases: during the Cold War, it served as a critical support for the U.S. in Asia, and in the post-Cold War unipolar order, its value shifted to the financial domain [12][21]. - In the Cold War, Japan acted as a supply base for U.S. military activities and showcased Western capitalist values, while in the unipolar era, it became a capital-rich nation that provided a stable low-interest environment for U.S. capital [12][14]. Group 2: Impact of Global Order Changes - The transition to a multipolar world has diminished the U.S.'s reliance on Japan as a financial lever, as the U.S. faces a decline in hard power and a slowdown in foreign asset expansion [21][24]. - Japan's role is being pushed to the forefront of geopolitical competition, increasing its associated risks and undermining its status as a safe asset [3][21]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - Despite short-term government interventions stabilizing market sentiment, the underlying fundamentals of the yen and Japanese bonds remain fragile due to geopolitical shifts [4][24]. - The ongoing dissolution of the unipolar order and the rise of multipolarity will continue to influence global financial markets, leading to a trend of "de-securitization" of Japanese assets [25][26].

Group 1: Election Context - The Japanese House of Representatives election on February 8, 2026, will significantly impact the political landscape and debt risk in Japan[1] - The ruling coalition, consisting of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the Japan Innovation Party, holds 233 seats, while the opposition consists of the Center-Left Reform Alliance with 172 seats[3] - Current polls indicate a 99% probability that Prime Minister Kishi will remain in office, with an 81% chance that the LDP will secure over 250 seats[3] Group 2: Fiscal Policy Outlook - Post-election, Japan's macroeconomic policy will continue to favor expansionary fiscal measures, but with a more cautious approach to avoid a "Truss moment" scenario[2] - The LDP's proposed tax cuts, particularly a two-year suspension of the food tax, could create a fiscal gap of ¥5 trillion, representing 17% of new bond issuance[5] - Japan's fiscal deficit is projected to reach ¥40 trillion in 2025, with total government debt expected to be 230% of GDP[5] Group 3: Debt Risk Assessment - Japan's sovereign debt risk is relatively low, with a net international investment position of 84% of GDP, indicating a strong asset position[5] - The structure of Japanese debt ownership shows that only 14% is held by foreign investors, with the Bank of Japan holding 46%[5] - The potential for external spillover risks from Japan's debt situation will depend on the election outcome and subsequent government policies[5]