Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market is still strengthening, and the easing of funds is expected to create a short - to - long market trend in July. It is recommended to maintain a duration above the medium level, and the dumbbell strategy is more advantageous. The report believes that the 10 - year Treasury bond yield is expected to fall to 1.4% - 1.5% [6][23] - With the current capital price, short - term interest rates such as certificates of deposit still have room to decline further, and after the short - term interest rates decline, the long - term space will also be opened up [5][18] - The compression of spreads is limited, and to open up the interest rate space, it is necessary to break through the key interest rates to open up the downward space of the overall curve [3][15] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Bond Market Performance - This week, the bond market continued to strengthen, with more obvious compression of short - term and credit spreads. After the quarter - end, although the central bank significantly withdrew funds, the funds were still loose as expected. Short - term interest rates continued to decline, while the key long - term interest rates remained relatively stable [1][9] Spread Compression - After the key - term interest rates dropped to near the key positions, the market mainly compressed various spreads, including the spreads between key and non - key terms of interest - rate bonds, between non - active and active bonds, and between different bond varieties [2][10] Spread Compression Limit - The compression of spreads is limited. As spreads decline, the risk of non - active varieties increases, which will prompt funds to flow back to active varieties. To further lower interest rates, key terms and varieties need to break through key positions [3][15] Fund Situation - The current loose fund situation is expected to continue. On one hand, the demand for funds has slowed down; on the other hand, the central bank's space for withdrawing funds may decrease. Additionally, the release of previously accumulated fiscal deposits will also contribute to the continued loosening of funds [4][17] Interest Rate Trend - If the capital price remains at the current level, short - term interest rates such as certificates of deposit have room to decline further. After the short - term interest rates decline, the long - term interest rate space will also be opened up, driving the key interest rates to break through key positions and bringing down the overall curve [5][18]