1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The net borrowing volume of 30 - year treasury bonds has reached a record high recently. As of February 5, 2026, the borrowing concentration of 2500006 reached 38.85%, indicating a crowded short - position situation [6][12]. - Brokers' net selling of 30 - year treasury bonds has exceeded the net borrowing volume, but the yield to maturity of 30 - year treasury bonds has not risen significantly. The "bullets" of short - sellers may be running out [6][13]. - The buying power of large and small banks for 30 - year treasury bonds is strong, absorbing most of the brokers' net selling [6][13]. - Looking forward, the downward space of 10 - year treasury bonds may be limited due to the large - scale holdings of 10 - year treasury bonds by joint - stock banks at a cost below 1.8% since the fourth quarter of last year. If there are positive factors in the bond market, the downward range of 30 - year treasury bonds may be larger, and the short - sellers' closing positions will narrow the 30Y - 10Y term spread. However, it is also possible that short - sellers will increase their short - selling efforts [6][14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Bond Market Review - As of February 5, 2026, the borrowing concentration of 2500006 reached 38.85%, higher than the previous peaks in April and September 2025, indicating a crowded short - position [12]. - From December last year to February 5, 2026, the net borrowing volume of the top 3 active bonds increased by 46.4 billion yuan, and the overall net selling was 125.9 billion yuan. This year, the net borrowing volume and net selling were 35.5 billion yuan and 60.5 billion yuan respectively, showing that brokers are "using inventory" to sell [13]. - The net borrowing increment of 25T6 + 25T2 this year was 36 billion yuan, and the cumulative net selling of spot bonds was 37.4 billion yuan, suggesting that short - sellers' "bullets" may be scarce [13]. - The buying power of large and small banks for 30 - year treasury bonds is dominant, absorbing the brokers' net selling [13]. - In the future, the downward space of 10 - year treasury bonds may be limited, and if there are positive factors, the 30 - year treasury bonds may decline more, narrowing the 30Y - 10Y term spread. There is also a possibility that short - sellers will increase short - selling [14]. 3.2 Bond Yield Curve Tracking 3.2.1 Key Maturity Interest Rates and Spread Changes - As of February 6, compared with February 2, the 1 - year treasury bond yield rose 1.31bp to 1.32%; the 10 - year treasury bond yield fell 0.98bp to 1.81%; the 30 - year treasury bond yield fell 3.00bp to 2.25% [20]. - The spread between 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds fell 2.02bp to 44.08bp, and the spread between 10 - year CDB bonds and 10 - year treasury bonds fell 0.82bp to 15.43bp [23]. 3.2.2 Treasury Bond Term Spread Changes - As of February 6, compared with February 2, the 3Y - 1Y treasury bond spread fell 3.18bp to 6.02bp; the 5Y - 3Y spread fell 0.29bp to 17.43bp; the 7Y - 5Y spread rose 0.23bp to 11.13bp; the 10Y - 7Y spread rose 0.95bp to 14.37bp; the 20Y - 10Y spread fell 1.12bp to 42.91bp; the 30Y - 20Y spread fell 0.90bp to 1.17bp [26]. 3.3 Bond Market Leverage and Funding Situation 3.3.1 Balance of Inter - bank Pledged Repurchase - As of February 6, 2026, compared with February 2, the balance of inter - bank pledged repurchase rose 0.33 trillion yuan to 13.00 trillion yuan [30]. 3.3.2 Changes in Inter - bank Bond Market Leverage Ratio - As of February 6, 2026, compared with February 2, the inter - bank bond market leverage ratio rose 0.16pct to 107.71% [31]. 3.3.3 Pledged Repurchase Turnover - From February 2 to February 6, the average pledged repurchase turnover was 8.75 trillion yuan. The average overnight turnover was about 7.95 trillion yuan, and the average overnight turnover ratio was 90.82% [35][36]. 3.3.4 Inter - bank Funding Operation - From February 2 to February 6, bank fund lending increased. As of February 6, large - scale banks' net fund lending was 5.86 trillion yuan, small and medium - sized banks' net fund borrowing was 0.49 trillion yuan, and the net lending of the banking system was 5.36 trillion yuan. - As of February 6, DR001 was 1.2750%, DR007 was 1.4613%, R001 was 1.3605%, and R007 was 1.5288% [38]. 3.4 Duration of Medium - and Long - Term Bond Funds 3.4.1 Median Duration of Bond Funds - As of February 6, the median duration of medium - and long - term bond funds (de - leveraged) was 2.74 years, up 0.05 years from February 2; the median duration (including leverage) was 2.91 years, up 0.06 years from February 2 [49]. 3.4.2 Median Duration of Interest - Rate Bond Funds - As of February 6, the median duration of interest - rate bond funds (including leverage) was 3.67 years, up 0.05 years from February 2; the median duration of credit - bond funds (including leverage) was 2.69 years, up 0.09 years from February 2. The median duration of interest - rate bond funds (de - leveraged) was 3.34 years, up 0.02 years from February 2; the median duration of credit - bond funds (de - leveraged) was 2.52 years, up 0.03 years from February 2 [53]. 3.5 Changes in Bond Lending Balance - As of February 5, compared with February 2, the borrowing volume of 10 - year CDB bonds increased [56].