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华西证券:未来一周或是债市方向选择的重要岔口
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-19 00:20
Core Viewpoint - The upcoming week is a critical juncture for the bond market, determining its direction for recovery or further decline [1] Group 1: Market Direction - If the bond market opts for a recovery, it is advisable to extend duration positions promptly [1] - In the event of continued market decline, a strategy of small, frequent purchases may be considered to capitalize on potential market tops [1] Group 2: Comparative Analysis - From a cost-performance perspective, the 30-year government bonds and 10-year policy bank bonds offer better value compared to 10-year government bonds [1] - The yield spread between 30-year government bonds and 10-year government bonds, as well as the spread between 10-year policy bank bonds and government bonds, have reached new highs over the past year [1] Group 3: Yield Curve Strategy - After a two-week adjustment period, the yield spread between 10-year and 1-year government bonds has rebounded from extremely low levels to the 50-60% percentile range [1] - Future strategies may include employing a barbell approach to take advantage of opportunities for curve flattening [1]
固定收益定期:等待突破
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-08-10 09:43
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market continued its recovery this week, with most interest rates declining to varying degrees, especially short - term and credit interest rates. The short - term interest rate's further downward breakthrough momentum is weak, and the bond market may experience short - term phased oscillations, with the subsequent interest rate more likely to break through downward [1][4] - Although other markets and some policies have short - term impacts on the bond market, the continuous loosening of funds provides protection, and the overall pattern of asset shortage in the bond market remains unchanged [2][3][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Bond Market Current Situation - This week, the bond market continued its recovery, with short - term and credit interest rates declining more significantly. The 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate dropped 1.8bps to 1.62%, and the 1 - year and 5 - year AAA - secondary capital bonds decreased by 2.7bps and 0.7bps respectively. The 10 - year Treasury bond rate fell 1.7bps to 1.69%, while the 30 - year Treasury bond rate rose slightly by 1.1bps to 1.96%. The 10 - year Treasury bond rate has recovered most of its decline from the impact of the stock and commodity markets [1][8] Factors Restraining the Downward Breakthrough of Interest Rates - Other markets still suppress the bond market sentiment. The recent strong performance of the stock market affects the bond market sentiment, especially long - term bonds. The 30 - year Treasury bond has been weak recently due to this factor [2][9] - Institutional caution and the implementation of some growth - stabilizing policies will short - term constrain the bullish forces. In the second quarter of this year, the duration of funds increased significantly, and high positions made institutions operate more cautiously. The relaxation of purchase restrictions in Beijing may also affect the downward force of interest rates [2][11] Factors Protecting the Bond Market - The continuous loosening of funds provides market protection, making it difficult for interest rates to rise significantly. The overnight interest rate is around 1.3%, and R007 is around 1.4%, protecting the overall market. During the market recovery since July 29, short - term interest rates have declined more significantly [3][11] - In the future, funds will remain loose. Financing demand may continue to slow down, government bond supply will decrease, and fund supply is sufficient. The central bank has stated that it will maintain ample liquidity [3][12] Future Outlook for the Bond Market - The bond market may experience short - term phased oscillations. As the fundamentals and asset supply - demand change, the interest rate is more likely to break through downward. From the fundamental perspective, low interest rates are needed to boost domestic demand, and from the asset supply - demand perspective, the decrease in asset supply and continuous loosening of funds will increase the pressure of asset shortage [4][13] - After the phased cooling of the stock and commodity markets, the 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bonds may oscillate when approaching the pre - adjustment levels of 1.65% and 1.85%. Subsequently, as the fundamentals change and the asset shortage evolves, the interest rate may break through downward, more likely near or in the fourth quarter [4][18]
市场其实已经突破10月8日的最高点了
表舅是养基大户· 2025-08-07 13:23
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the recent highs in the Shanghai Composite Index, the four major banks, and the financing balance, indicating a positive market sentiment and investment opportunities [2][3][11]. - The Shanghai Composite Index has surpassed its previous high from October 8, with a closing value around 3640 points, while the "Shanghai Earnings Index" has increased by 10.8% this year, outperforming the index itself [3][6]. - The report from Goldman Sachs predicts that by 2025, cash expenditures for dividends and stock buybacks by domestic listed companies will reach a record 3.6 trillion yuan, accounting for 29% of total cash expenditures, indicating a shift towards shareholder returns [8][10]. Group 2 - The four major banks are experiencing a rebound, with Agricultural Bank of China surpassing Industrial and Commercial Bank of China in total market capitalization [11][12]. - The price-to-book (PB) ratios of the four major banks have significantly recovered, with Agricultural Bank's PB exceeding 0.9, indicating a shift in market dynamics and investor sentiment towards banking stocks [16]. - The financing balance has surpassed 2 trillion yuan, suggesting increased market activity, although it is noted that the market is active but not yet in a state of frenzy [18][20]. Group 3 - The article highlights the emergence of a new hundred billion industry ETF, particularly in the robotics and AI sectors, which have attracted significant capital inflows [23]. - Recent adjustments in bond holdings indicate a strategic shift in response to changing interest rates, with a focus on maintaining a balanced portfolio [26]. - The article concludes with a commitment to investor profitability, emphasizing the importance of transparent and understandable investment strategies [29].
中泰资管天团 | 蔡凤仪:低利率环境下对利率债投资的再思考
中泰证券资管· 2025-08-07 11:32
Core Viewpoint - The "anti-involution" policy has led to a stronger risk appetite in the equity market and a rapid increase in commodity prices, resulting in rising inflation expectations. This, combined with the US-China tariff disputes and concerns over potential incremental policies from the political bureau meeting at the end of July, has created multiple headwinds for the bond market, particularly long-term interest rate bonds, which have seen rising yields and falling prices, causing significant net value drawdowns in bond funds [1][2]. Summary by Sections Market Conditions - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for July was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing sentiment, suggesting that the fundamentals have not yet shown signs of reversal [1]. Bond Market Analysis - Since the "anti-involution" policy began, the yield on 10-year government bonds has risen from 1.66% to 1.75%, a nearly 10 basis point increase. This adjustment reflects the current market's pricing of strong expectations and the likelihood of no interest rate cuts in the third quarter [2][4]. - The central bank's provision of liquidity has acted as a stabilizer, indicating that the monetary policy stance remains unchanged, which enhances the value of carry trades in the bond market [2]. Investment Strategy - Traditional analytical frameworks remain effective, with the fundamental conditions still determining the long-term direction of the bond market. The monetary policy report from the previous quarter sets the tone for the upcoming quarter, indicating that the bond market lacks a basis for a turnaround [4]. - Identifying key yield anchors for bonds, such as the 10-year government bond yield, is crucial. The difference between the 10-year yield and the DR007 has reached a high of 28 basis points, suggesting a solid safety margin for the current yield [5]. Long-term Outlook - The overall trend for yield is downward, but the rate of decline is expected to slow, with increasing competition in the long-term interest rate bond market. Fund managers should focus on enhancing their predictive and responsive capabilities amid narrow fluctuations to increase returns through tactical trading [8].
8-10月债券市场展望:债市颠簸期
Group 1: Report Title and Basic Information - Report Title: "Bumpy Period in the Bond Market — Outlook for the Bond Market from August to October" [1] - Analysts: Huang Weiping, Luan Qiang [2] - Research Support: Yang Linlin, Wang Zheyi [2] - Date: August 6, 2025 [2] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Since 2025, the bond market's logic has switched multiple times, with long - term interest rates failing to break previous lows [3][47] - The economy still faces downward pressure on the demand side, and the new kinetic energy has not yet replaced the old in the short term. The policy effects of anti - involution may appear after the fourth quarter [5] - In the second half of 2025, the bond market has low odds, while the stock market has high odds. There is a risk of capital flowing from the bond market to the stock market [6] - The bond market is more sensitive to price expectations, and whether prices will rebound is a medium - term concern for the bond market [5] Group 3: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Analysis of the Bond Market's Trend and Macro Logic from January to Date - **2025 Q1**: Tight funds and significant bank liability pressure led to a bond market correction [12] - **2025 Q2**: Repeated tariff expectations, along with potential reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, caused yields to decline rapidly to a low level and then fluctuate [14] - **July 2025**: Anti - involution expectations and the stock - bond seesaw effect led to a pulse - like correction in the bond market. The term spread of treasury bonds expanded, and the credit spreads of secondary perpetual bonds and medium - term notes widened [16][17][22] - **Overall Logic**: The bond market's operation logic has switched from pessimistic liquidity expectations to economic improvement expectations, then to risk - preference switching under the "reciprocal tariff" shock, and finally to the stock - bond seesaw effect and capital diversion under anti - involution expectations [43][47] 2. Economic Cycle Position and the Connotation of Anti - Involution - **Economic Cycle Position**: On the demand side, the economy faces downward pressure due to insufficient effective demand. On the supply side, some industries show signs of profit improvement. The new kinetic energy has not replaced the old in the short term [51][65] - **Anti - Involution Connotation and Price Transmission**: Compared with the supply - side reform from 2016 - 2017, the current anti - involution is in the policy - guidance and industry - initiative stage, and its effects may appear after the fourth quarter. PMI price indicators and corporate production and operation activity expectations are effective indicators to observe anti - involution [74][77][94] - **Bond Market's Reaction to Anti - Involution**: From 2021 - 2024, the bond market followed the logic of "weak demand - policy reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts to hedge demand decline - interest rate cuts failing to effectively promote corporate and household leverage - continuous decline in interest rates." Currently, the bond market may shift its focus from nominal interest rate decline to real interest rate decline [99][101][110] 3. Deposit Transfer and Capital Diversion Paths - **Deposit Maturity**: In 2025, about 52.4 trillion yuan of deposits in the six major banks are due, and it is estimated that about 108.3 trillion yuan of deposits in deposit - taking financial institutions are due [6][149] - **Deposit, Wealth Management, and Insurance Growth**: In 2025, the growth of deposits is not significant, wealth management growth is okay but weakened in July, and insurance premium income is similar to that in 2024 [150][155] - **Capital Diversion**: In recent years, deposits have mainly flowed into wealth management and insurance. In 2025, the return of fixed - income products has weakened, and there is an increasing demand for stock - bond hybrid products, which may divert funds from the bond market [151][167] 4. What the Bond Market is Pricing - **Pricing Focus**: The bond market is more sensitive to price expectations. Whether prices will rebound is a medium - term concern, and it may increase the weight of pricing nominal economic growth [5][7] - **Bond Market Outlook**: From August to October, the bond market is in a bumpy period. The 10 - year treasury bond at around 1.7% may not be cost - effective. The recommended bond investment order is convertible bonds > certificates of deposit > long - term interest - rate bonds > credit bonds [8][9]
利率债8月报:如何理解“反内卷”对债市的影响?-20250801
Ping An Securities· 2025-08-01 10:02
Key Information Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Both domestic and international markets are experiencing a risk - on trend. Overseas, the risk sentiment is positive with the extension of tariff exemptions and agreements, while inflation needs to be observed in the next two months. Domestically, although the GDP growth in the first half of the year was strong, the high - frequency PMI data in July showed a decline in production and domestic and foreign demand. The bond market sentiment was suppressed, and the yield curve was bear - steep. [2] - The concept of "anti - involution" has been repeatedly mentioned at the central level and by official media. Currently, the supply - side focuses on directional deployment and industry self - discipline, and the demand - side includes the continuation of previous consumption policies and new measures such as birth subsidies and large - scale project investments. Compared with the supply - side reform in 2015, there are still uncertainties in the current "anti - involution" policy. [3] - Since July, the 10 - year Treasury bond rate has risen by a maximum of 10BP, improving the odds. Considering the current fundamentals and capital situation, the 10Y Treasury bond above 1.70% still has investment value. Attention should be paid to the continuation of the risk - preference improvement in the equity and commodity markets and the implementation of demand - side policies. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART1: Overseas and Domestic Risk - on Trends - **Overseas Market** - The risk sentiment is positive, with the extension of tariff exemptions and agreements with the EU and Japan. The US stock market continued to rise, and the US dollar rebounded from a low level, although affected by the issue of the Fed's independence. [7] - In June, the year - on - year inflation of US core commodities rebounded from 0.3% to 0.7%, and the next two months are the inflation observation window. The labor market remained resilient, with the number of initial jobless claims falling for many consecutive weeks and the unemployment rate dropping by 0.1 percentage points in June. [13] - **Domestic Market - Fundamental Aspects** - The GDP growth in the first half of the year was strong, and the proportion of domestic demand components increased. However, high - frequency PMI data showed a decline in production, domestic and foreign demand in July. [15] - **Domestic Market - Bond Market and Institutional Behavior** - Since late April, the capital has been running smoothly, but the bond market sentiment was suppressed by the strong performance of the commodity and equity markets, resulting in a bear - steep yield curve and a decline in the inter - bank leverage ratio. [17] - Different institutions showed different investment behaviors in July. Large banks significantly increased their bond allocation, especially short - term Treasury bonds; rural commercial banks actively bet on duration; funds faced pressure on the short - term liability side, reducing duration and positions; wealth management products continued to have a relatively stable liability side and maintained a high allocation of inter - bank certificates of deposit; insurance companies maintained a certain level of bond - buying in July and are expected to increase their net inflow in August. [24][29][32][37][43] PART2: Understanding the Impact of "Anti - Involution" on the Bond Market - **Background and High - level Deployment of "Anti - Involution"** - Since the concept of "involution - type competition" was first proposed in July 2024, it has been repeatedly mentioned at the central level and by official media. As of June 2025, the year - on - year PPI growth has been negative for 33 consecutive months, reflecting the problem of excessive price - cutting competition among enterprises. After the Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission on July 1, 2025, more industries have responded. [49] - **Supply - side and Demand - side Measures** - The supply - side focuses on directional deployment and industry self - discipline, with multiple industries such as steel, cement, photovoltaic, and coke issuing self - discipline mechanisms or holding seminars. The demand - side includes the continuation of previous consumption policies and new measures such as birth subsidies and large - scale project investments. [52] - **Comparison with the 2015 Supply - side Reform** - In 2015, after the supply - side reform was proposed, the 10 - year Treasury bond rate bottomed out in January 2016, and there was an adjustment period of about 5 - 6 months, with the 10 - year Treasury bond rate rising by a maximum of about 30BP. Compared with the current "anti - involution" policy, there are differences in terms of quantitative targets, demand - side stimulus intensity, and the central bank's attitude towards the capital. [59] PART3: Bond Market Strategy - **Policy Stance in the July Politburo Meeting** - The Politburo meeting in July showed stronger policy determination. It positively evaluated the economic performance in the first half of the year, and the expression of monetary and fiscal policies was mostly about continuation or emphasis on implementation, with a relatively mild tone. [61] - **Investment Value of the 10 - year Treasury Bond** - Since July, the 10 - year Treasury bond rate has risen by a maximum of 10BP, improving the odds. Considering the current fundamentals and capital situation, the 10Y Treasury bond above 1.70% still has investment value. Attention should be paid to the continuation of the risk - preference improvement in the equity and commodity markets and the implementation of demand - side policies. [63]
跨市场联动下的债市“逆风期”何时结束
Southwest Securities· 2025-07-28 15:30
Report Information - Report Title: Bond Market Tracking Weekly Report (7.21 - 7.25) [1][14] - Report Date: July 28, 2025 [1] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Risk asset strength is the main cause of the current "headwind" in the bond market. Since mid - July, the strengthening of risk assets has weakened bond market sentiment. In late July, Yajiang Group's 1.2 trillion yuan investment plan catalyzed the stock market's rise and the bond market's decline, and the commodity market also rose sharply. Fund selling of bonds has been significant in July, with a net selling scale of over 300 billion yuan. The reasons may be portfolio optimization by fund managers and re - balancing by investors. However, the continuous buying by allocation - type and under - allocated institutions, such as state - owned banks, insurance institutions, and rural commercial banks, has played a "stabilizer" role and may support the bond market's future trend. In the short term, whether the anti - involution market can continue depends on whether the PPI can improve. The upcoming Politburo meeting may affect the bond market. Overall, the curve shape may remain steep, and the 10 - year treasury bond may have investment value at a yield of 1.70% - 1.75%. [4][12][18] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Cross - market Linkage and the Bond Market's "Headwind" Period - **Cause of the "Headwind"**: Since mid - July, the strengthening of risk assets has been the main cause of the bond market's weakness. In early July, the bond market was relatively stable, but as the mid - July large tax period approached, concerns about the central bank's long - term monetary injection and the improvement of the equity market due to anti - involution policies and the upcoming Central Urban Work Conference suppressed bond market sentiment. In late July, Yajiang Group's investment plan, combined with the rise of the commodity market, further pressured the bond market. [18] - **Institutional Behavior**: Funds and securities firms have been the main sellers of old interest - rate bonds in July, with funds selling over 300 billion yuan. The reasons may be portfolio optimization by fund managers and re - balancing by investors. Wealth management products' redemptions may be preventive due to the rise of the equity market. On the other hand, state - owned banks, insurance institutions, and rural commercial banks have been net buyers, providing support to the bond market. [5][24][33] - **Key Indicators**: In the short term, whether the anti - involution market can continue depends on whether the PPI can improve. The Politburo meeting may also affect the bond market. If the PPI does not improve in July, the bond market sentiment may recover. [7][35] 3.2 Important Events - **July MLF Net Injection**: On July 24, the central bank announced a 400 billion yuan MLF operation on July 25, with a net injection of 100 billion yuan as the total July MLF maturity was 300 billion yuan. [56] - **Insurance Third - Quarter Predetermined Interest Rate**: On July 25, the China Insurance Association announced that the research value of the predetermined interest rate for ordinary life insurance products in the third quarter was 1.99%. [57] 3.3 Money Market - **Open Market Operations and Fund Rates**: From July 21 to 25, the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase operations had a net injection of - 7.05 billion yuan. The overall fund rate tightened last week, with overnight fund prices rising sharply on Thursday. As of July 25, R001, R007, DR001, and DR007 had changed compared to July 18. [60][64] - **Certificate of Deposit Rates and Repurchase Transactions**: In the primary market, last week, the net financing of inter - bank certificates of deposit was - 559.79 billion yuan, with a significant net outflow. The issuance scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased compared to the previous week. The issuance rate of inter - bank certificates of deposit increased compared to the previous week. In the secondary market, the yields of inter - bank certificates of deposit of all maturities increased due to the tightened fund rate. [68][73][77] 3.4 Bond Market - **Primary Market**: On July 24, the first - level issuance result of bond 2500005 was relatively weak. The issuance progress of local bonds in July was only 63.99% of the plan, and the supply rhythm of local finance in the third quarter may be postponed. Last week, the net financing of local government bonds was slower than that of treasury bonds. The special refinancing bonds issued as of last week totaled 1.84 trillion yuan, mainly with long - term and ultra - long - term maturities. [81][89][92] - **Secondary Market**: Last week, the bond market showed a bear - steep trend. The yields of treasury bonds and policy - bank bonds of various maturities changed, and the term spread between 10 - year and 1 - year treasury bonds widened to around 35BP. The liquidity premium between the active and sub - active bonds of 10 - year treasury bonds and policy - bank bonds narrowed. [94][101] 3.5 Institutional Behavior Tracking - **Leveraged Trading**: Last week, the scale of leveraged trading remained relatively high. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase was about 7.74 trillion yuan. [119] - **Cash Bond Market Transactions**: State - owned banks and rural commercial banks were the largest buyers in the interest - rate bond market last week. State - owned banks mainly increased their holdings of treasury bonds with maturities of less than 5 years, while rural commercial banks significantly increased their holdings of policy - bank bonds with maturities of 5 - 10 years and treasury bonds with maturities of more than 5 years. [109][123] 3.6 High - frequency Data Tracking - **Commodity Prices**: Last week, the settlement prices of rebar, cathode copper, and Brent crude oil futures increased, while the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures decreased. The cement price index decreased, and the South China Glass Index increased. [133] - **Shipping and Food Prices**: The CCFI decreased, and the BDI increased. The wholesale prices of pork and vegetables increased. [133] - **Exchange Rate**: The central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 7.14 last week. [133]
跨市场联动下的债市“逆风期”何时结束?
Southwest Securities· 2025-07-28 14:12
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The curve shape may continue to be steep, but the 10-year Treasury bond currently has certain investment value. The sentiment factors that led to the bond market's decline last week may gradually weaken, and the bond market may experience an emotional recovery in the short term. The 10-year Treasury bond yield in the range of 1.70%-1.75% may present more opportunities than risks [43][120]. - In terms of strategies, from a configuration perspective, an investment portfolio of "short-term credit + long-term local bonds" can be considered. For short-term credit, attention can be paid to similar interbank varieties, and for long-term local bonds, those with convex points in the 15 - 20-year maturity can be selected. From a trading perspective, the current active bonds of the 10-year and 30-year Treasury bonds can be used as the main trading targets [43][120]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Cross-Market Linkage and the Bond Market's "Headwind Period" - **Reasons for the "Headwind"**: Since mid-July, the strengthening of risk assets has weakened the bond market sentiment. The investment plan of Yajiang Group in late July and the rise of the commodity market driven by anti-involution expectations have further pressured the bond market. In addition, factors such as wealth management redemptions and the central bank's MLF injection scale lower than expected have increased the upward pressure on interest rates [1][12]. - **Institutional Behavior**: In July, funds and securities firms were the main sellers of old interest rate bonds, with funds selling more significantly, with a net selling scale of over 300 billion yuan. The reasons may be portfolio optimization by fund managers and rebalancing of risk and risk-free assets by investors. Wealth management redemptions may be mainly preventive. State-owned banks, insurance institutions, and rural commercial banks showed strong buying demand, playing a stabilizing role in the bond market [2][21]. - **Key Indicators to Watch**: In the short term, whether the anti-involution market can continue depends on whether the PPI can improve. The Politburo meeting may trigger profit-taking in some risk assets, reducing the adjustment pressure on the bond market. The supply rhythm of local bonds may affect the bond market, and the reduction of insurance companies' liability costs may increase bond allocation demand [4][22]. 2. Important Matters - In July, the net MLF injection was 100 billion yuan [44]. - The research value of the scheduled interest rate of ordinary personal insurance products in the third quarter is 1.99% [45]. 3. Money Market - **Open Market Operations and Fund Rate Trends**: From July 21 to July 25, the central bank's net open market operation was -70.5 billion yuan. The fund rate tightened last Thursday, but the central bank increased the 7-day OMO injection on Friday. The yields of interbank certificates of deposit (NCDs) increased overall last week [46][47]. - **NCD Rate Trends and Repurchase Transactions**: Last week, NCDs had a large net outflow of 559.79 billion yuan. The issuance scale decreased, and the maturity scale increased. The issuance rates of NCDs of various institutions increased compared to the previous week, and the yields of NCDs in the secondary market also increased [55][60]. 4. Bond Market - **Primary Market**: The net financing rhythm of local government bonds was slower than that of national bonds. As of July 25, the cumulative net financing of national bonds and local bonds in 2025 was 3.84 trillion yuan and 4.96 trillion yuan respectively. The issuance of long-term government bonds increased significantly compared to the same period in 2023 - 2024. Last week, the net financing of national bonds decreased, while that of local bonds increased, and the net financing of policy financial bonds was negative. The issuance scale of special refinancing bonds reached 1.84 trillion yuan as of July 25 [67][72]. - **Secondary Market**: Last week, the bond market showed a bear-steep trend. The yields of Treasury bonds and policy bank bonds of various maturities increased, and the term spread of the 10 - 1-year Treasury bond widened to around 35BP. The liquidity premium between the active and sub-active bonds of the 10-year Treasury bond and policy bank bond narrowed. The spread between long-term and ultra-long-term local and national bonds narrowed [67][87]. 5. Institutional Behavior Tracking - Leverage trading volume remained at a relatively high level last week. The trading volume of the interbank pledged repurchase averaged about 7.74 trillion yuan per day. State-owned banks and rural commercial banks were the largest buyers in the interest rate bond market last week. State-owned banks mainly increased their holdings of Treasury bonds with maturities of less than 5 years, while rural commercial banks increased their holdings of policy financial bonds with maturities of 5 - 10 years and Treasury bonds with maturities of more than 5 years. The current average cost of major trading players for adding positions in the 10-year Treasury bond is between 1.64% and 1.68% [92][107]. 6. High-Frequency Data Tracking - Last week, the settlement prices of rebar and cathode copper futures increased, while the cement price index decreased. The CCFI index decreased, and the BDI index increased. The wholesale prices of pork and vegetables increased, and the Brent crude oil futures settlement price increased, while the WTI crude oil futures settlement price decreased. The central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 7.14 [116].
固定收益定期:把握债市修复行情
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-07-27 12:53
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market adjusted significantly this week, but the short - term impact factors are temporary, and the bond market is expected to enter a repair phase. The short - term interest rate adjustment ceiling is clear, and the 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bond yields may return to around 1.65% and 1.85% respectively. The bond interest rate is expected to hit a new low in the second half of the year [1][5][19] Group 3: Summary by Related Contents Bond Market Adjustment This Week - The bond market adjusted significantly this week, with long - term bonds adjusting more notably. The yields of 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bonds rose by 6.7bps and 8.4bps to 1.73% and 1.97% respectively. The yields of Tier 2 capital bonds of 3 - year and 5 - year AAA - also increased significantly, and the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate rose by 5.8bps to 1.675% [1][9] - The sharp decline in the bond market this week is due to multiple factors: the expectation of anti - involution policies pushed up commodity prices and the stock market; the central bank withdrew funds in the first four days of this week, and seasonal factors tightened the funds; the bond market adjustment may have led to the net value retracement of some asset management products, resulting in a negative feedback effect of redemptions [1][9] Short - term Nature of Impact Factors - Commodity prices tumbled on the night of Friday after a continuous rise last week. With strengthened regulatory control, the subsequent commodity price rally is expected to cool down, reducing the pressure on the bond market. The current price increase is more based on expectations, and its sustainability is to be observed [2][12] - The central bank's operation on Friday strengthened the protection of liquidity, and funds will not tighten in a trending manner. The central bank's net injection of 8018 billion yuan on Friday and the statement of the deputy governor indicate that the central bank will maintain liquidity stability, which helps to form an adjustment ceiling for the bond market, limiting the continuous adjustment space of the bond market [3][13] Unchanged Bond Market Trend - The bond market is still in an asset shortage pattern, and broad - spectrum interest rates are declining. The supply of assets will decrease in the next five months, while the allocation power is steadily increasing. The reduction of insurance reservation interest rates will further increase the allocation demand for long - term bonds [4][14] - The demand side is not strong, and the export demand may slow down in the second half of the year. The real estate market is weak, and investment and consumption growth rates have slowed down. The impact of anti - involution policies on supply also needs attention. Fundamental changes are the key to determining the interest rate trend [5][19] Bond Market Outlook - After the short - term shock, the bond market will enter a repair phase. The interest rate is expected to return to the previous level in the first stage, and whether it can break through the previous low later depends on the fundamentals and the pressure of asset shortage. The bond interest rate is expected to hit a new low in the second half of the year [5][19]
债市策略思考:避免追涨杀跌,适度逆向思考
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-07-26 11:05
Core Insights - The current bond market is expected to show a slight upward shift in the oscillation center, with the 10-year government bond yield projected to reach a phase upper limit of 1.75%-1.80%. Short-term trading should avoid chasing highs and lows, while long-term allocation may consider grid trading for gradual accumulation [1][2][3] Group 1: Basic Logic and Unexpected Impacts - A framework for bond market analysis is constructed based on the "five bowls of noodles" analysis framework and the first principles of the bond market, integrating fundamental logic for the long term and funding logic for the short term, while also considering unexpected impact factors [1][11] - From February to mid-March, the fundamental outlook was positive while the funding outlook was negative, leading to a significant adjustment in the bond market due to the greater impact of short-term logic [1][12] - Since July, the fundamental and funding conditions have remained relatively stable, but the hot performance in equity and commodity markets has created negative external disturbances, reflecting a counterbalancing game between bullish fundamentals and bearish external disturbances [1][13] Group 2: Short-term Bond Market Range - The upper limit of the 10-year government bond yield is theoretically set at 1.80%, while the lower limit is around 1.50%. However, the actual trading process suggests a more realistic lower limit of 1.65% due to investor behavior and market conditions [2][14][15] - The bond market is expected to present a slight upward shift in the oscillation center, with the actual operating range projected to be between 1.75%-1.80% on the upside and 1.65%-1.70% on the downside [2][15] Group 3: Investment Strategy - In the current market environment, it is advised to avoid chasing highs and lows, as the downward adjustments may present better entry opportunities. Long-term investors should trust that the fundamental framework will have a more significant long-term impact than external disturbances [3][18] - For long-term investments, especially for insurance funds, the attractiveness of ultra-long bonds with yields above 2.0% has become more pronounced, suggesting a gradual accumulation strategy through grid trading [3][18] - For short-term trading, the current yield levels are close to the estimated upper limit, indicating a lower necessity for further reduction in positions, with a recommendation to maintain a wait-and-see approach [3][18]