证券研究报告 | 固定收益定期 gszqdatemark 2025 10 12 年 月 日 固定收益定期 与其预判，不如应对 近期中美经贸冲突再度升级，全球资本市场大幅波动。近几天中美贸易冲突再度 升级，美国对华船舶加征港口费，我国采取反制措施，并且对稀土全产业链技术实 施出口管制。而后美国总统特朗普称考虑对华从 11 月 1 日起加征 100%关税，并 拟对所有关键软件实施出口管制。中美贸易冲突快速升级，这导致全球资本市场 大幅波动，10 月 10 日，纳斯达克指数下跌 3.56%，纳斯达克中国金龙指数更是 下跌 6.1%。 中美贸易冲突升级，与 4 月初类似，债券利率也出现明显下行。10 月 11 日，各 期限利率普遍出现明显下行，30 年国债较前一日更是大幅下行 5.01bps，10 年国 债也下行 2.54bps。4 月初中美贸易冲突加剧时，利率就曾出现较为显著的下行， 2025 年 4 月 7 日，10 年、30 年国债在 3 个交易日内均下行超 15bps。当前面临 的国际环境、国内基本面状况、债市环境与当时都有一定类似性，因而市场不免与 当时比较，后续市场是否会再现当时的走势？ 虽然历史会踏着相 ...

证券研究报告 | 债券市场专题研究 | 债券研究 债券市场专题研究 报告日期：2025 年 10 月 11 日 把握事件冲击后的调仓机会 ——债市策略思考 核心观点 展望下一阶段，短期债市迎来相对难得的回暖时机，或应把握切券调仓机会，将配置 交易重心由 30 年国债逐步向 10 年国债转移。权益牛市的大趋势或不会就此终结，若 后续开盘出现较大幅度调整，或意味着更具性价比的配置点位。 ❑ 关税威胁再度袭来，4 月行情或"形似而神不似" 北京时间 10 月 11 日，特朗普在社媒上宣布将于 11 月 1 日起对中国征收 100%关 税，关税扰动再度袭来。我们认为，本次事件威胁意味大于实际操作，最终结果 仍有较大变数；金融市场或已形成一定学习效应，或更倾向于将此次事件视为一 次性冲击而非趋势性影响；当前股债环境已较 4 月发生了显著变化，阶段性股强 债弱的趋势或不会就此逆转。类比来看，本次行情或与 4 月行情"形似而神不似"， 催化因素均为关税风险事件扰动，但股债市场底层逻辑或已发生显著变化，"形似" 的背后，"神不似"更为关键。 ❑ 如何理解近期 30-10 年国债利差持续走阔 根据 30-10 年国债利差走势， ...

近期市场波动较大，当前临近长假，在较大不确定性情况下，市场关注如何应对跨 节。 从季节性来看，国庆前后长债并不存在明显的季节性，而资金在节后则往往会季 节性宽松。从过去 4 年经验来看，国庆节后利率上升压力不大，国庆后首周 10 年 国债平均下行在 0.9bp，而整个 10 月相对于 9 月底，利率平均下行 0.2bp，其中 2022 年和 2024 年长债利率在 10 月均有所回落。而从资金状况来看，节后资金首 周或有季节性回落，往年经验来看，10 月资金也未有明显收紧。结合当前融资需 求不足，且央行对流动性保持呵护的情况，整体资金预计将继续保持宽松，R007 有望继续保持 1.4%-1.5%附近运行。 虽然说往年季节性如此，但每一年都有自己的特殊情况，因而也不好完全照搬。 从目前情况来看，宽松的资金面和偏弱的基本面依然是债市中期的安全保障。近 几个月融资需求偏弱，信贷保持同比少增，并且社融增速放缓。结合后续相对有限 的资产统计，即使考虑到 4 季度可能提前发行再融资债，如果假定提前增发 1 万 亿，那么政府债券供给也较去年少 0.7 万亿左右，因而预计资金将保持持续宽松， 资产荒有望加剧。同时，近期基本面 ...

Summary of Conference Call on Bond Market Dynamics Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the bond market dynamics in the context of current financial regulations and macroeconomic conditions, particularly focusing on the impacts of U.S.-China negotiations and seasonal factors affecting market performance [1][4]. Key Points and Arguments - **Market Performance in September**: The bond market in September was negatively impacted by seasonal factors and two significant "black swan" events: regulatory changes leading to low market sentiment and unexpected progress in U.S.-China negotiations [1][4]. - **Comparison with Historical Context**: The current financial regulatory environment is compared to 2013, where GDP growth was below expectations, but infrastructure and real estate investments were high. Unlike 2013, current financial leverage is concentrated in standard bonds rather than non-standard assets [1][5][6]. - **Monetary Policy Outlook**: The monetary policy for 2025 is expected to be slightly tighter than in 2024, but overall remains accommodative. The first quarter is anticipated to have a loose funding environment, with limited pressure on the bond market due to inconsistent directions from the central bank and regulators [1][7]. - **Impact of U.S.-China Negotiations**: The unexpected progress in U.S.-China negotiations may reduce the domestic monetary policy stimulus, lowering the probability of rate cuts in the fourth quarter. However, there may still be easing measures in 2026 [1][8]. - **Interest Rate Trends**: The bond market may experience a final decline in the short term, with a potential rebound in the medium term. The 10-year government bond yield is currently above 1.8%, which is considered attractive [3][8]. Additional Important Insights - **Investment Recommendations**: Institutions are advised to seize current left-side opportunities and not miss the timing before the end of the year, with a medium-term bullish outlook [2][9]. - **Technical Market Analysis**: The technical shape of the bond market suggests continued volatility in the short term, but a positive outlook remains for the medium term [3][9]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the conference call, highlighting the bond market's current state, historical comparisons, and future expectations.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The bond market is expected to gradually return to the fundamentals and asset shortage situation through incremental restoration in a volatile manner. The 10-year Treasury bond above 1.8% still has allocation value, and the long-term bond yield is expected to return to around the level before this round of adjustment by the end of the year, with the 10-year Treasury bond likely to recover to around 1.6% - 1.65% [6][21]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bond Market Performance This Week - The bond market rose first and then fell this week, remaining volatile overall. The yields of 10-year and 30-year Treasury bonds increased by 1.1bps and 2.1bps respectively to 1.80% and 2.10%. The yields of certificates of deposit and credit bonds remained stable or declined slightly, with the 1-year AAA certificate of deposit yield rising slightly by 0.5bps to 1.68%, and the yields of 3-year and 5-year AAA - secondary capital bonds falling by 2.6bps and 1.5bps respectively to 2.00% and 2.13% [1][9]. 3.2 Deviation of the Bond Market from Fundamentals and Capital - **Deviation from fundamentals**: The bond market trend is inconsistent with the fundamentals. The terminal demand calculated by export, infrastructure, and real estate investment decreased from 5.2% in April to 0.5% in August, and the year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value decreased from 6.8% in June to 5.2% in August. The manufacturing PMI has been below 49.5%, indicating relatively low economic prosperity, which is inconsistent with the overall upward trend of long-term bond yields in the past two months [2][10]. - **Deviation from capital**: The long-term bond also deviates significantly from the capital trend. The 20-day moving average of R007 has been declining since late February, from around 2.2% to around 1.5% currently, while the long-term bond yield has been rising in the past two months, and the spread between the two has reached over 30bps, a relatively high level in the past two years [2][10]. 3.3 Historical Situation of Interest Rate Deviation - Historically, it is rare for interest rates to deviate from both capital and fundamentals simultaneously. Previously, interest rate adjustments were usually accompanied by improvements in fundamentals or tightening of capital, and most of the time, changes in fundamentals and capital preceded interest rate adjustments. For example, in March 2016, the manufacturing PMI rose above the boom - bust line, and the interest rate recovery occurred in the fourth quarter of 2016 [3][13]. 3.4 Logic of Interest Rate Change - It is more logical for changes in capital or fundamentals to lead long - term interest rates. Interest rate is the financing cost. For the real economy, interest rates can only achieve a trend recovery when demand continues to rise. If the fundamentals are still weak and financing demand is insufficient, a premature rise in interest rates will suppress the fundamentals [4][18]. 3.5 Special Situation of Current Deviation - The current simultaneous deviation of long - term bonds from fundamentals and capital has its particularity. Part of the reason for the relative weakness of long - term bonds is the over - rise from the end of last year to the beginning of this year, and part of the triggering factor is the increase in risk appetite brought about by the rise of the stock market. However, from multiple perspectives such as the downward speed of broad - spectrum interest rates, interest rate cut expectations, curve slope, and the interpretability of fundamentals, the previous over - rise may have been digested, and subsequent interest rates are expected to return to the fundamentals and asset shortage situation [4][18]. 3.6 Situation in the Fourth Quarter - **Increasing possibility of asset shortage**: Asset supply is expected to further decline. If the net financing of government bonds in September is 1.3 trillion, the net financing of government bonds in the first nine months of this year is 11.6 trillion. According to the budget, the net financing in the fourth quarter is about 2.2 trillion. Even if 1 trillion of refinancing bonds for next year are advanced to this year, the net financing of government bonds in the fourth quarter will still be about 0.7 trillion less than last year. At the same time, the issuance of refinancing bonds may further increase the replacement of assets such as credit, and overall asset supply will further decline. However, fiscal deposits will continue to decrease year - on - year, and the central bank's bond trading will also increase capital supply, so the asset shortage may intensify [5][19]. - **Increasing possibility of fundamental pressure**: From the perspective of industrial product prices, the production material price index of the Ministry of Commerce has been falling since early August, and the PPI month - on - month in September may turn negative again, indicating that the fundamental pressure may increase [5][19]. 3.7 Bond Market Outlook and Investment Suggestions - **Bond market outlook**: The decline in the real return rate determines that the downward trend of broad - spectrum interest rates such as loan interest rates has not changed. The over - rise of interest rates at the beginning of the year has gradually been digested. Therefore, the current interest rate adjustment space is limited, and the bond market will gradually return to the fundamentals and asset shortage situation, but this return may be achieved through incremental restoration in a volatile manner [6][21]. - **Investment suggestions**: A dumbbell - shaped operation is recommended, that is, short - term credit/certificates of deposit + long - term interest rates. High - selling and low - buying band operations can be carried out on long - term interest rate positions [6][21].

Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The current macro - economic supply - demand imbalance persists, and the transmission of anti - involution policy effects is asymmetric. - Fundamental trading has two sides, usually more focused on long - term logic, and attention should be paid to the expectation gap. Although the current fundamentals are not the core contradiction of stock - bond trading, their anchoring effect on the bond market cannot be ignored. There is still a certain investment cost - effectiveness for 10 - year treasury bonds with a yield above 1.80% [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs How to View the Current Economic Fundamentals - In recent years, the problem of supply exceeding demand in the domestic economy has been prominent. External demand led by exports in the first half of the year was an important factor driving economic growth. In the second half of the year, the demand side declined overall, and the growth rate of the production side also showed signs of decline. The asymmetry of policy effects may be the main cause of short - term economic fluctuations. - On one hand, anti - involution has a direct impact on the production side, similar to capacity reduction through administrative means during the supply - side reform, which may be the main reason for the decline in the growth rate of fixed - asset investment in July and August, and industrial production may also be affected. On the other hand, against the background of relatively weak demand, the effect of anti - involution on boosting prices still needs further transmission. The short - term PPI growth rate may bottom out, but the CPI growth rate unexpectedly declined in August [2]. How to Understand Fundamental Trading - Fundamental trading has two sides, and the same data may have completely opposite interpretations. For example, after the release of economic data on March 17 and April 16, 2025, although the economic data was better than expected, the TL contract showed different intraday trends, which makes it difficult to grasp the market's mainstream expectations for fundamental data and its impact [3]. - Fundamental trading is more of a long - term rather than a short - term logic, and its role is more to support rather than drive. Economic fundamental variables are mostly slow - changing variables with relatively low update frequencies. Investors usually need to form fundamental expectations based on multi - month data, which determines that fundamental trading is more long - term. The impact of fundamentals on bond prices is more of a support, and the relationship between positive economic data for the bond market and bond market rallies is "necessary but not sufficient" [3]. - The long - term logical nature of fundamental trading determines that the expectation gap may be the main factor affecting fundamental trading. Data that conforms to the long - term market fundamental expectations may cause a relatively flat market reaction, while data that deviates from the long - term expectations may catalyze short - term trading in the market [3]. Understanding Stock - Bond Market Trends from the Perspective of Fundamental Trading - Apparently, fundamentals are not the core contradiction of current stock - bond trading. Factors such as investors' risk appetite, market liquidity, incremental funds, and potential policies have a greater impact on the equity market. The relatively fragile sentiment in the bond market is the main reason for the recent more - decline - less - rise situation in the bond market. The commodity market pays more attention to the introduction and implementation of anti - involution policies [4]. - Deeply, the anchoring effect of fundamentals cannot be ignored, especially for the bond market. Relatively weak fundamental data can frame the approximate upward range of treasury bond yields. 10 - year treasury bonds with a yield above 1.80% still have a certain investment cost - effectiveness. - The impact of current fundamentals on the bond market is asymmetric. Relatively weak fundamental data in line with expectations may not effectively boost bond market sentiment and catalyze a bond market rally, while unexpectedly strong data may hit the already fragile bond market sentiment. Attention should be paid to demand - side data such as consumption and price indices such as CPI [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The over - rise of bond interest rates at the beginning of the year has been digested, but the bond market repair may not come quickly and is likely to gradually repair in fluctuations. The report suggests a dumbbell - shaped operation, i.e., short - term credit/certificates of deposit + long - term interest rates, and conduct high - selling and low - buying band operations on long - term interest rate positions. The 10 - year treasury bonds with yields above 1.8% still have allocation value, and the long - term bond interest rates may decline more smoothly in the second half of the fourth quarter, with the interest rates expected to hit new lows this year [6][20]. 3. Summary According to Related Content Bond Market Interest Rate Trends This Week - This week, bond interest rates rose again. The yields of the 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bond active bonds 250011.IB and 2500002.IB increased by 2.5bps and 5.5bps respectively compared with last week, reaching 1.79% and 2.08%. The 10 - year treasury bond active bond once exceeded the key point of 1.8%. The interest rates of certificates of deposit and credit also increased. The 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit interest rate rose 1.1bps to 1.68%, and the 3 - year and 5 - year AAA - secondary capital bond interest rates soared 10.0bps and 9.7bps to 2.02% and 2.14% [1][9]. Reasons for the Bond Market's Volatility This Year - In the first three quarters of this year, the overall bond market fluctuated and adjusted, making it difficult to obtain stable investment returns. Although affected by factors such as fundamental changes, large - bank bond selling, rising commodity prices due to anti - involution policies since the third quarter, the continuous strengthening of the stock market, and the recent public - fund fee - rate new regulations, the major background was that the over - rise of interest rates at the beginning of the year over - exhausted the subsequent space to some extent [1][9]. Evidence of Interest Rate Over - rise at the Beginning of the Year - From the perspective of capital return rate, interest rates are still in a downward trend. Since 2010, the enterprise return rate has been in a downward trend, with EBIT/total assets dropping from 10.4% in 2010 to 4.4% this year, with an average annual decline of about 40bps. The corresponding interest rates, especially the loan interest rates, have also been in a downward trend, with an average annual decline of 30bps since 2011. The loan interest rates are highly consistent with the bond interest rates. From October last year to January this year, the 10 - year treasury bond interest rate dropped by 56bps in total, resulting in a decline in the relative cost - effectiveness of the bond market and forming the continuous fluctuation pattern of the bond market this year [2][10]. Evidence that the Interest Rate Over - rise Has Been Digested - **Trend perspective**: If the 10 - year treasury bond interest rate drops by about 30bps annually, the bond market was basically over - rising in the first half of this year. By September this year, if the year - on - year interest rate decline is 30bps, the 10 - year treasury bond interest rate should be around 1.8%, which is consistent with the current level, indicating that the over - rise part has basically been digested [3][11]. - **IRS implied interest - rate cut expectation perspective**: Currently, the IRS no longer contains interest - rate cut expectations, and the expectation of monetary easing has basically been digested. Since the beginning of 2025, the IRS - FR007 spread once widened to about 50bp, but since August 5th, the FR007 - IRS (MA20) spread has been continuously positive, indicating that the market does not imply expectations of looser funds or interest - rate cuts in the next year [3][13]. - **Term spread perspective**: At the beginning of the year, the over - rise of long - term bonds and the tightening of funds led to a significant inversion of the yield curve. As of August 29th, the spread between the 1 - year certificate of deposit and R007 (20D MA) expanded to 16.2bps, significantly higher than the 2024 average of 6.2bps. The spread between the 10 - year treasury bond and the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit reached 17.3bps, which is very close to the 2024 average of 17.5bps. With the normalization of the curve, the short - end loose liquidity is expected to protect long - term bonds from short to long [4][16]. - **Fundamental and explainable perspective**: By fitting and explaining the 10 - year treasury bond interest rate with GDP growth rate, the average of CPI and PPI, the capital price R007, and the time - trend term, it is found that although the interest rate dropped below one standard deviation of the fitting value in the first half of this year, indicating a certain degree of over - rise in the bond market, it returned to the one - standard - deviation fluctuation range after the interest - rate adjustment in the third quarter, indicating that the interest rate has entered the range explainable by fundamentals [5][17]. Factors Affecting the Bond Market in the Short Term - The stock market trend is uncertain. Although the stock - bond correlation has weakened, a rapid rise in the stock market may still impact the bond market when non - banks still hold a certain position. Public - fund fee - rate new regulations and quarter - end capital impacts may also affect the bond market in the short term. Additionally, the bond market is often seasonally weak in September and October [5][19][20].

Group 1 - The current market status indicates increasing pressure in the bond market, primarily due to redemption pressures from fixed income products rather than the stock-bond relationship [7][12][15] - The risk in the bond market may have exceeded the influences of fundamentals, liquidity, and the stock-bond relationship, with the stock market showing signs of structural volatility without alleviating bond market pressure [22][26][30] - Institutional buying power for bonds is weak, and trading desks are in a phase of reducing positions under pressure, indicating a lack of enthusiasm for bond purchases compared to previous years [15][19][20] Group 2 - Observing signals for market sentiment turning points is crucial, including monitoring deposit certificate rates, which can indicate liquidity conditions and the attractiveness of bond assets [32][33] - The bond market is still returning to reasonable valuation levels, with current adjustments potentially setting the stage for a bullish trend by the end of 2024 [37][41][44] - The bond market may be in a phase of accelerated risk release, with limited opportunities for bullish positions until clearer signals of easing emerge [37][39][45]

Core Insights - The current bond market is in a bottoming phase characterized by a converging triangle pattern and insufficient long positions, suggesting investors should wait patiently for opportunities to gradually accumulate positions when the 10-year government bond yield is in the range of 1.80-1.85% [1][2][27] Historical Context of Bond Market Bottoming - Historically, the bond market has experienced a smooth downward trend followed by prolonged bottoming phases, as seen in early 2015 and before 2019, which eventually led to new downward trends in yields. The current situation in 2025 shows similarities but lacks the stability in high and low points seen in previous bottoming phases, indicating a converging range and insufficient long positions [1][9][11] Current Stage of the Bond Market - The bond market is currently at a stage where the converging triangle pattern indicates a lack of momentum for further price movement in either direction, suggesting a potential re-evaluation of direction. Positive signals include the duration of the current bottoming phase, which has lasted about 7 months, and a recovery in long sentiment in government bond futures as of September 11 [2][28][27] Technical Analysis and Market Signals - The technical analysis indicates that the converging triangle pattern typically signifies a lack of strong momentum, leading to a potential directional choice ahead. The bond market has shown signs of recovery in trading volume and sentiment, with a notable increase in positions across various futures contracts [2][28][30] Economic and Monetary Policy Context - The economic environment in 2025 is comparable to that of early 2015 and 2019, with a slow recovery in the economy and weak financing demand from both households and enterprises. The GDP growth is expected to remain around 5%, supporting a downward trend in bond yields. Additionally, the monetary policy remains accommodative, with recent rate cuts and liquidity injections providing a supportive backdrop for the bond market [13][19][27] Equity Market Performance - The equity market has shown structural differentiation, with growth stocks outperforming value stocks across different periods. In 2025, the market has seen significant gains in mid and small-cap sectors, indicating a trend where growth outperforms traditional sectors, which aligns with historical patterns observed in previous years [23][27]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Despite the current weakness in CPI and PPI, economic data such as social financing stock growth, core CPI, and real GDP have improved, indicating that the economy is stabilizing and inflation indicators should not be over - emphasized [3] - Bond yields may rise ahead of economic recovery, and when the market doubts the economic fundamentals, bond yields continue to rise, but when the market generally expects economic recovery, the yield increase may be near the end [5] - Inflation data may also lag behind bond yields, as shown by historical examples in 2009 and 2020 [5] - Given the improvement in some economic data compared to 2024 and the historical pattern of bond yields rising ahead of economic and inflation indicators, bond yields are expected to rise [6] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Economic Data Improvement - Social financing stock year - on - year increased from +7.8% in November 2024 to +9.0% in July 2025 [3] - Government - funded expenditure cumulative year - on - year increased from - 20.5% in April 2024 to +31.7% in July 2025 [3] - Core CPI monthly year - on - year increased from - 0.1% in February 2025 to +0.9% in July 2025 [7] - Real GDP quarterly year - on - year increased from +4.6% in Q3 2024 to +5.2% in Q2 2025 [7] - The monthly average of social consumer goods retail year - on - year in 2025 was +4.98%, significantly higher than the +3.28% monthly average in 2024 [3] Bond Yield and Economic Data Deviation - In 2020, when economic data was weak in June, the 10 - year Treasury yield rose from 2.50% on April 29 to 3.08% on July 9, with a cumulative increase of 58BP, showing a deviation from economic data. In November 2020, economic data improved, but the 10 - year Treasury yield had reached a high of 3.35% and then started to decline [4] Inflation Data Lagging - In 2009, after the 4 - trillion policy was introduced in November 2008, CPI and PPI continued to decline until July 2009, but the 10 - year Treasury yield had risen from 2.67% to 3.53% in August 2009, with a cumulative increase of 86BP [5] - In November 2020, inflation data was at a low level, but the 10 - year Treasury yield had significantly risen to 3.35% [5]