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小非农数据疲软,降息预期回温,金价止跌回升
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-11-19 01:41
Core Viewpoint - Gold prices experienced a slight decline but rebounded due to rising risk aversion and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, closing at $4067.40 per ounce on COMEX [1] Economic Data Summary - The ADP weekly employment report indicated an average weekly decrease of 2,500 jobs in the U.S. private sector for the four weeks ending November 1 [1] - The U.S. Labor Department reported initial jobless claims at 232,000 for the week ending October 18, with continuing claims slightly rising to 1.957 million. Additionally, initial claims for the week ending September 20 were revised up from 218,000 to 219,000, with the four-week average adjusted from 237,500 to 237,750 [1] Market Analysis - Citic Futures noted that the high levels of weekly initial and continuing jobless claims, coupled with the prolonged government shutdown, have increased the downside risks in the labor market. This has contributed to a continued weakness in U.S. equities and a slight strengthening in U.S. Treasuries [1] - The market is closely watching upcoming U.S. GDP and non-farm payroll data releases, with expectations of short-term fluctuations in gold and silver prices. However, the long-term bullish trend for precious metals remains intact [1] Investment Perspective - The ongoing issues of excessive debt issuance and de-globalization are identified as core drivers of the decline in U.S. dollar credibility. Gold is viewed as the preferred asset for hedging against dollar credit risk, being a currency that transcends national boundaries [1]