投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-11-21 就业数据分化，12⽉降息存疑 周四贵⾦属价格震荡运⾏。美国披露9⽉⾮农数据，继7、8⽉的⾮农显著 ⾛弱后，9⽉新增⾮农就业⼈数超预期回升，但失业率同步上⾏。基于 10、11⽉⾮农将于12⽉FOMC之后公布，美联储数据依赖的⻛格进⼀步 降低12⽉降息概率，但停摆造成的负向冲击下，远期降息预期仍然乐观。 重点资讯： 1）美国9月季调后非农就业人口增11.9万人，预期增5万人，前值增 2.2万人；失业率为4.4%，创2021年以来新高，预期4.3%，前值4. 3%；平均每小时工资同比增3.8%，预期增3.7%，前值增3.7%。这份报 告是自美国联邦政府创纪录停摆导致官方数据中断发布以来，美国劳 工统计局发布的首个经济健康指标。意外向好的数据将强化联邦公开 市场委员会鹰派成员的立场，他们始终警告美联储不宜过快降息。 2）美国上周初请失业金人数22万人，预期23万人；四周均值22. 425万人。美国至11月8日当周续请失业金人数197.4万人，预期196万 人。 3）美国11月费城联储制造业指数为-1.7，预期2，前值- ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-11-20 预期抢跑或再交易，贵⾦属短线反弹 周三贵⾦属再度反弹，⽩银表现出更⼤弹性。美股重要财报发布前，市场 或存在谨慎情绪，周四将公布美联储10⽉议息会议纪要和⾮农数据，基于 劳动⼒市场的持续降温，市场可能存在⼀定的预期抢跑，关注周内数据的 发布落地情况。 重点资讯： 1） 美联储将于周四凌晨3:00公布其10月份会议纪要，此时投资者对 美国利率走向的不确定性正在日益增加。会议纪要将首次详细展现多 数决策者在10月会议期间对未来利率路径的看法。美联储官员对于年 底前是否适合进一步放松政策存在明显的分歧，这种分歧已在官员们 近期的讲话中体现。会议记录还可能表明风险平衡是否已经发生变 化。根据芝商所"美联储观察"工具显示，投资者目前认为美联储 12月降息的可能性仅有51%。 2）美国8月贸易逆差596亿美元，预期逆差610亿美元，前值从逆差 783亿美元修正为逆差782亿美元；出口2808亿美元，前值2805亿美 元；进口3404亿美元，前值3588亿美元。 3）欧元区10月CPI终值同比升2.1%，预期升2.1%，初值升 ...

"小非农"ADP周度就业数据显示，截至11月1日的四周，美国私营部门就业人数平均每周减少2500人。 另外，美国劳工部数据显示，截至10月18日当周，美国初请失业金人数23.2万人，续请失业金人数小幅 上升至195.7万人，同时，截至9月20日当周初请失业金人数从21.8万人上修至21.9万人，四周均值从 23.75万人上修至23.775万人，疲软数据明显提升了市场对12月降息的预期。 中信期货分析指出，日内披露的美国周度首申、续请失业金人数维持高位，美国政府本次的超长停摆进 一步推升劳动力市场下行风险，美股延续弱势，美债小幅走强，关注本周美国GDP及非农数据披露，金 银短期或呈现震荡整理。长期中贵金属多头趋势维持。债务超发、逆全球化作为美元信用下行的核心驱 动并未反转，黄金作为超越主权的货币，仍是对冲美元信用风险的首选资产。 11月18日，金价早盘延续回落，盘中受避险情绪升温及美联储降息预期回升催化，止跌反弹，截至收 盘，COMEX黄金期货跌0.17%报4067.40美元/盎司。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

"小非农"ADP周度就业数据显示，截至11月1日的四周，美国私营部门就业人数平均每周减少2500人。 另外，美国劳工部数据显示，截至10月18日当周，美国初请失业金人数23.2万人，续请失业金人数小幅 上升至195.7万人，同时，截至9月20日当周初请失业金人数从21.8万人上修至21.9万人，四周均值从 23.75万人上修至23.775万人，疲软数据明显提升了市场对12月降息的预期。 11月18日，金价早盘延续回落，盘中受避险情绪升温及美联储降息预期回升催化，止跌反弹，截至收 盘，COMEX黄金期货跌0.17%报4067.40美元/盎司。 中信期货分析指出，日内披露的美国周度首申、续请失业金人数维持高位，美国政府本次的超长停摆进 一步推升劳动力市场下行风险，美股延续弱势，美债小幅走强，关注本周美国GDP及非农数据披露，金 银短期或呈现震荡整理。长期中贵金属多头趋势维持。债务超发、逆全球化作为美元信用下行的核心驱 动并未反转，黄金作为超越主权的货币，仍是对冲美元信用风险的首选资产。 ...

11月18日，金价早盘延续回落，盘中受避险情绪升温及美联储降息预期回升催化，止跌反弹，截至收 盘，COMEX黄金期货跌0.17%报4067.40美元/盎司。 中信期货分析指出，日内披露的美国周度首申、续请失业金人数维持高位，美国政府本次的超长停摆进 一步推升劳动力市场下行风险，美股延续弱势，美债小幅走强，关注本周美国GDP及非农数据披露，金 银短期或呈现震荡整理。长期中贵金属多头趋势维持。债务超发、逆全球化作为美元信用下行的核心驱 动并未反转，黄金作为超越主权的货币，仍是对冲美元信用风险的首选资产。 "小非农"ADP周度就业数据显示，截至11月1日的四周，美国私营部门就业人数平均每周减少2500人。 另外，美国劳工部数据显示，截至10月18日当周，美国初请失业金人数23.2万人，续请失业金人数小幅 上升至195.7万人，同时，截至9月20日当周初请失业金人数从21.8万人上修至21.9万人，四周均值从 23.75万人上修至23.775万人，疲软数据明显提升了市场对12月降息的预期。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold stocks are actively rising in a bearish market, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts due to worsening employment conditions in the U.S. [1] Group 1: Gold Stocks Performance - Zhumeng Gold (01815) increased by 4.71%, closing at 2 HKD [1] - Zijin Mining (02899) rose by 2.37%, closing at 32.82 HKD [1] - China National Gold International (02099) gained 1.86%, closing at 131.1 HKD [1] - Shandong Gold (01787) went up by 1.61%, closing at 32.9 HKD [1] - Zhaojin Mining (01818) increased by 1.58%, closing at 29.56 HKD [1] Group 2: U.S. Employment Data - In October, the U.S. non-farm employment decreased by 9,100, compared to an increase of 33,000 in the previous month [1] - The number of layoffs reported by Challenger Companies in October reached 153,100, a year-on-year increase of 175.3%, marking the highest level for the same period since 2003 [1] Group 3: Interest Rate Expectations - The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates again in December exceeds 70%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool [1] - CITIC Futures emphasizes the importance of the trading window in December, suggesting potential discussions around next year's interest rate cuts [1] - The nomination of a new Federal Reserve chair is expected to be confirmed before Christmas, which may introduce risks related to independence and could act as a bullish driver [1] Group 4: Long-term Outlook for Gold - Long-term factors such as excessive debt and de-globalization are driving the decline of the dollar's credit [1] - Gold is viewed as a preferred asset to hedge against dollar credit risk, with a sustained trend of global central banks purchasing gold [1] - The long-term price center for gold is expected to maintain an upward trajectory [1]

Core Viewpoint - Gold stocks are actively rising against the market backdrop, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts due to worsening employment conditions in the U.S. [1] Group 1: Gold Stock Performance - Zifeng Gold (01815) increased by 4.71%, closing at 2 HKD - Zijin Mining (02899) rose by 2.37%, closing at 32.82 HKD - China Gold International (02099) gained 1.86%, closing at 131.1 HKD - Shandong Gold (01787) went up by 1.61%, closing at 32.9 HKD - Zhaojin Mining (01818) increased by 1.58%, closing at 29.56 HKD [1] Group 2: U.S. Employment Data - In October, U.S. non-farm employment decreased by 9,100, compared to an increase of 33,000 in the previous month - The number of layoffs reported by Challenger Companies in October reached 153,100, a year-on-year surge of 175.3%, marking the highest level for the same period since 2003 [1] Group 3: Interest Rate Expectations - The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates again in December exceeds 70%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool - Focus is on the trading window period in December, with potential discussions on rate cuts for the following year [1] Group 4: Long-term Outlook for Gold - Long-term factors such as excessive debt issuance and de-globalization are driving down the credit of the U.S. dollar - Gold is viewed as a preferred asset to hedge against U.S. dollar credit risk, with a sustained trend of global central banks purchasing gold - The long-term price center for gold is expected to maintain an upward trajectory [1]

Core Insights - The gold ETF fund (159937) has seen a recent increase of 0.27%, with a latest price of 8.76 yuan, and a cumulative rise of 0.74% over the past week [2] - Spot gold prices have surpassed $4000 per ounce, reflecting a daily increase of 0.59% [2] - The U.S. job market is facing challenges, with a decrease of 9,100 non-farm jobs in October and a significant rise in layoffs, leading to increased expectations for interest rate cuts [2] Market Performance - The gold ETF fund has a turnover rate of 0.23% during the trading session, with a transaction volume of 86.62 million yuan [2] - The average daily transaction volume for the gold ETF fund over the past week is 1.309 billion yuan, ranking it among the top two comparable funds [2] Economic Indicators - The U.S. job market data shows a concerning trend, with the Challenger job cuts reaching 153,100 in October, a year-on-year increase of 175.3%, marking the highest level for the same period since 2003 [2] - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has led to a suspension of official inflation data releases, raising concerns among Federal Reserve officials regarding future monetary policy [2] Investment Trends - According to CITIC Futures, there is currently a lack of significant drivers for precious metal prices, with expectations of a volatile market in the short term [3] - The gold ETF fund has seen a net inflow of 194 million yuan recently, with 12 out of the last 21 trading days showing net inflows totaling 5.293 billion yuan, averaging 252 million yuan per day [3]

Group 1 - Gold prices experienced a temporary rise due to increased risk aversion but fell back as hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials dampened rate cut expectations, closing at $3984.80 per ounce, a decrease of 0.20% [1] - In October, U.S. companies announced layoffs totaling 153074, a year-on-year increase of 175.3%, marking a seven-month high, with a month-on-month increase of 183% [1] Group 2 - Current precious metal prices lack significant drivers, with expectations of maintaining a volatile pattern in the short term, particularly around the December trading window and the Federal Reserve's meeting [2] - Long-term factors such as excessive debt and de-globalization are seen as core drivers of declining U.S. dollar credit, with gold being viewed as a preferred asset for hedging against dollar credit risk, supported by ongoing global central bank gold purchases [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Thursday, precious metal prices fluctuated and rebounded. The sharp increase in the number of laid - off employees by Challenger companies in the US, with the technology and warehousing and logistics industries being the most affected, led to the dollar index falling below 100 during the day, a slight decline in US stocks, and most metals oscillating upwards [1][3]. - Precious metal prices currently lack significant drivers and are expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the short term. Attention should be paid to the trading window in December. Before and after the December FOMC meeting, there may be a game about the rate - cut space for next year. In the long term, excessive debt issuance and de - globalization are the core factors driving the decline of the US dollar's credit. Gold is the preferred asset to hedge against the US dollar's credit risk, and the trend of central bank gold purchases globally continues, with the long - term price center of gold expected to rise. Silver's trend is consistent with that of gold, expected to adjust in tandem in the short term and its price center is expected to move up in the long term following gold [3]. - The weekly price range for London gold is expected to be between 3800 and 4200, and for London silver between 46 and 52 [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Key Information - In October, the number of laid - off employees by Challenger companies in the US was 153,074, a year - on - year increase of 175.3% (the previous value was a decrease of 25.8%) and a month - on - month increase of 183% (the previous value was a decrease of 37.11%). The lay - offs were mainly concentrated in the technology and warehousing and logistics industries [2]. - The Bank of England kept the benchmark interest rate at 4.00%, in line with market expectations. It is predicted that the inflation rate will drop to 3.1% early next year and stabilize around the 2% target from the second quarter of 2027. The unemployment rate is expected to peak at 5.1% in the second quarter, higher than the 4.9% forecast in August. The Bank of England raised its economic growth forecast for this year from 1.25% to 1.5% and kept the forecasts for 2026 and 2027 unchanged [2]. - According to Revelio Labs data, the number of non - farm payrolls in the US decreased by 9,100 in October, compared with an increase of 33,000 in the previous month. The non - farm payroll report of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has been postponed due to the federal government shutdown [2]. 3.2 Price Logic - The short - term trend of precious metals is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to the trading window in December. Personnel changes in the Fed may become a positive driving factor. In the long term, gold is a preferred asset to hedge against the US dollar's credit risk, and the long - term price center of gold is expected to rise. Silver's trend is consistent with that of gold, and its price center is expected to move up in the long term [3]. 3.3 Price Outlook - The weekly price range for London gold is expected to be between 3800 and 4200, and for London silver between 46 and 52 [3]. 3.4 Index Information - The comprehensive index of CITICS Futures commodities on November 6, 2025, includes the commodity index (2244.89, +0.50%), the commodity 20 index (2541.79, +0.61%), and the industrial products index (2223.51, +0.45%) [43]. - As of November 6, 2025, the precious metals index had a daily increase of 0.83%, a 5 - day decrease of 0.35%, a 1 - month increase of 0.99%, and a year - to - date increase of 46.42% [45].