今日周三（9月24日）亚盘时段，黄金期货目前交投于850附近，截至发稿，黄金期货暂报855.42元/ 克，涨幅0.50%，最高触及862.10元/克，最低下探855.12元/克。目前来看，黄金期货短线偏向看涨走 势。 【最新黄金期货行情解析】 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【要闻速递】 在9月的利率决议会议上，美联储内部呈现出显著的意见分歧态势，不过鲍威尔始终展现出沉稳冷静的 姿态。近期，特朗普再度发力，加大对美联储的政策施压强度，此举不仅强化了市场对于美联储长期秉 持"鸽派"政策走向的预期，也对美元的国际公信力构成了更为严峻的挑战。 自今年就任以来，特朗普多次公开指责美联储降息步伐迟缓，甚至曾放出狠话称要罢免鲍威尔的职务。 此外，在8月初美联储理事库格勒提前离任之后，特朗普迅速做出人事安排，任命其经济顾问委员会主 席斯蒂芬·米兰临时接任该职位。当前，美联储理事会共有7名成员，其中沃勒与鲍曼均系特朗普提名人 选。倘若明年鲍威尔卸去主席之位并依惯例辞去理事职务，那么届时由特朗普所任命的理事会成员数量 或将增至5人。这一潜在变化无疑会进一步加深市场对美联储独立性受损的忧虑。 从整体情况来看，尽管面临诸多压力， ...

the first 同制的词 2）逻辑分析：由于美联储9月降息表态并无超预期内容，因此在降息落地后，市场焦点转向美联储官员的密集表态。周五晚间，美联储官员卡什卡利除今年再降息 取łd微气 (敬提合适的，劳动力市场风险可能大于通胀风险，新任理事米兰亦再度发表龄派言论，市场进一步押注美联储年内将连续降息。从而提振贵金属价格反弹，另一 l8《个人方面，特朗普预测美国联邦政府"很可能"在10月陷入停摆，再度引发市场的趣脸情绪，亦对贵金属价格构成提振，展望后市，我们认为短期贵金属价格仍会维持 意见,以 高位偏强运行,本周除了继续关注美联储官员的密集讲话外,还建议关注欧美PM1和美国PCE等数据。 供参考) 3）中长期逻辑：中长期来看，美联储年内仍有降息空间、全球地缘不确定性持续、美国债务不可持续和大国博弈加剧将长期增加美元信用风险、全球共行购金延 续等,黄金中长期重心大概率继续上移。 体拥备中的信息均源于公天可获得的谈外，国资策货力求准确可靠。但不对上述信息的准确性及完整性以任何保证、本者告不构成个人投资建议。也未分对个别数资者接持的货资目标、购多优规或需要，投资 者需自行判随本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其标定状况 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25bps as expected during the September FOMC meeting, with indications of two more rate cuts within the year and an additional cut next year, which is more hawkish than market expectations[2] - Following the FOMC meeting, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 6.31bps to 4.127%, while the 2-year yield increased by 1.59bps to 3.572%[3] - The market initially reacted to a more dovish 2025 dot plot but later adjusted to a more hawkish outlook for 2026, influenced by Powell's statements[3] Group 2: Market Reactions - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices rose by 1.22% and 2.21% respectively, driven by the Fed's rate cut and positive developments in U.S.-China TikTok negotiations[3] - The U.S. dollar index increased by 0.10% to 97.64, reflecting a mixed response to the Fed's actions and economic data[3] - Gold prices initially rose by 1.16% to $3685 per ounce but later declined, indicating volatility in response to the Fed's hawkish stance[3] Group 3: Economic Indicators - U.S. retail sales for August increased by 0.6%, surpassing expectations of 0.2%, with core retail sales (excluding autos) rising by 0.7% against a forecast of 0.4%[3] - Initial jobless claims for the week ending September 13 fell to 231,000, below the expected 240,000, indicating a strengthening labor market[3] - The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model predicts a Q3 2025 GDP growth of 3.3%, while the New York Fed's Nowcast model estimates it at 2.1%[3] Group 4: Political Risks - The failure of temporary spending bills in the Senate raises the risk of a federal government shutdown on October 1, increasing political uncertainty in the market[4] - The potential for Trump to gain more influence over the Federal Reserve could lead to a shift from a data-dependent to a Trump-dependent policy framework, impacting future monetary policy decisions[4]

记者丨吴斌 刘雪莹 编辑丨和佳 陈思颖 北京时间9月17日晚上，美股三大股指涨跌不一，多只芯片股下跌，截至23:20，英伟达股价一度跌近 3%。 | 小牛电动 | 4.415 | 6.90% | | --- | --- | --- | | NIU.O | | | | 小赢科技 | 14.960 | 6.78% | | XYF.N | | | | 百度集团 | 131.980 | 6.62% | | BIDU.O | | | | 嘉银科技 | 11.600 | 6.32% | | JFIN.O | | | | 迅雷 | 7.690 | 5.20% | | XNET.O | | | | 奇富科技 | 30.170 | 4.61% | | OFIN.O | | | | 虎牙 | 3.510 | 4.15% | | HUYA.N | | | | 蔚来 | 7.305 | 4.06% | | NIO.N | | | | 信也科技 | 7.933 | 3.83% | | FINV.N | | | | 第四公 | 16.670 | 3.80% | | KC.O | | | | 万国数据 | 38.700 | 3.70% | ...

执业证书：S0600524120013 证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观深度报告 #海外政治 特朗普干预美联储独立性的三个途径 2025 年 09 月 15 日 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 张佳炜 zhangjw@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 韦祎 执业证书：S0600525040002 weiy@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理 王茁 执业证书：S0600124120013 wangzhuo@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《市场对重启"国债买卖"的预期升 温》 2025-09-14 《9 月 FOMC 前瞻：降息已成定局， 关注点阵图指引与美联储独立性》 2025-09-14 东吴证券研究所 1 / 14 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] ◼ 核心观点：特朗普对美联储独立性的干预主要通过三个途径：①提名一 个听命于自己的美联储主席，预计在今年 11 月提名，明年 5 月上任； ②调整美联储理事会的人事结构，尽可能排除库克这类前总统提名的 "异己"，同时安插米兰这类的"忠 ...

Core Viewpoint - The continuous rise in 30-year U.S. Treasury yields is impacting dollar credit and enhancing risks in global dollar liquidity, leading to increased trading in safe-haven assets and pressure on risk assets [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Emerging market equity assets are entering a phase of chip digestion, characterized by high selling and low buying [1] - There is a phase shift in funds towards low-growth events and left-side trading elasticity in consumer sectors [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Potential short-term elasticity may be observed in sectors such as solid-state batteries, media, gaming, and travel [1]

瞿瑞认为，短期来看，国际金价波动性料加大，整体处于高位运行。一方面源于市场对美联储9月降息 预期延续，对金价形成一定支撑。另一方面，金价新高或带来资金止盈离场，对金价走势造成扰动。 瞿瑞亦判断，国际金价在中长期仍处于震荡上行通道，主要源于以下因素驱动：一是政策不确定性及地 缘政治风险使市场避险需求持续存在。特朗普政策的灵活性与变动性，特朗普政府对不同商品的关税仍 不确定以及关税影响还未彻底显现，令全球贸易政策不确定性持续处于高位，同时地缘政治冲突逐渐常 态化，避险情绪将为金价提供长期支撑。二是全球央行黄金配置意愿仍较强。特朗普政府推动的"大而 美"法案，美国财政赤字将持续扩大，同时其政策的变动性加剧美元信用风险，各国央行基于战略安全 与资产配置需求，将强化黄金储备布局。三是市场降息预期持续。鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔会议上发言转 鸽、近期美国经济、就业数据降温符合降息条件，均强化年内降息的必要性，进而支撑金价上行。 华源证券研报则称，中期来看，"特朗普2.0"主线中的关税和减税交易或在后续趋向平稳，"降息交 易"将为黄金价格上涨提供较强动能，下半年预计美国货币政策变化将接力财政政策为黄金价格提供支 撑。长期来看，"降 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the **gold market** and its pricing dynamics in the context of macroeconomic factors and investor behavior [2][3][4]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Impact of Real Interest Rates**: High real interest rates typically negatively affect gold prices. However, post-2008 quantitative easing and rising government debt have raised concerns about the safety of dollar assets, diminishing the suppressive effect of interest rates on gold [2][3]. 2. **Geopolitical Factors**: The Russia-Ukraine conflict has intensified global concerns regarding the safety of dollar assets, thereby increasing the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, which has led to a rise in gold prices despite high bond yields [3][4]. 3. **Demand Dynamics**: - **Industrial Demand**: Remains stable but is limited due to high costs, thus not a core driver of gold prices [4]. - **Jewelry Demand**: Primarily from Asian countries like India and China, has seen a decline of approximately 10% due to rising gold prices [6]. - **Investment Demand**: Central bank purchases are crucial, with significant buying from countries like China, which holds about 2,300 tons of gold [6][10]. 4. **Cryptocurrency Influence**: Virtual currencies, particularly Bitcoin, have a diversion effect on gold investments. The expansion of Bitcoin ETFs often coincides with a decline in gold ETFs, indicating a shift in some investor preferences [5][10]. 5. **Federal Reserve's Stance**: Recent dovish comments from the Federal Reserve may have a positive but limited impact on gold prices. Despite increased expectations for rate cuts, gold prices have not significantly surged [6][8]. 6. **Trading Structure**: The trading dynamics, particularly the influence of Asian investors, have been pivotal in recent price movements. For instance, significant purchases by domestic investors have been noted, but speculative funds have not fully exited the market, creating short-term resistance for gold prices [9][10]. Other Important Considerations 1. **Long-term Outlook**: The long-term trend of dollar overproduction and credit decline is favorable for gold. Historical cycles indicate that gold prices have the potential to rise significantly compared to current levels [10]. 2. **Investment Timing**: Current conditions may require investors to bear high holding costs for gold. Monitoring the rapid decline in ETF shares could signal a better buying opportunity in the future [11]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the conference call regarding the gold market, its pricing mechanisms, and the broader economic context influencing investor behavior.

Group 1 - The global gold market is experiencing mixed signals due to geopolitical developments and expectations of hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve [2] - After the announcement of "reciprocal tariffs" by the US in April, the US dollar index fell to a three-year low, leading to a surge in international gold prices, which exceeded $3400 per ounce [2] - In the second quarter, global gold demand increased to 1248.76 tons, with investment demand being the primary driver, while jewelry demand saw a decline [3] Group 2 - Central banks globally increased their gold reserves, with a net addition of 22 tons in June, indicating heightened risk aversion among investors [4] - In the first half of 2025, central bank gold purchases totaled 123 tons, slightly lower than the previous year, with Poland being the largest net buyer [4] - The potential for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could positively impact gold prices, with upcoming speeches from Powell expected to provide more clarity on monetary policy [5] Group 3 - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict may lead to a shift in market sentiment, which could negatively affect gold prices if risk aversion decreases [6] - China is implementing favorable policies for the gold industry, including a development plan aimed at enhancing resource security and innovation in the gold sector [7] - The establishment of an international gold trading center in Hong Kong is progressing, which may strengthen its position as a global financial hub [7]

Group 1 - Concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve have been heightened due to Trump's ongoing criticism of Chairman Powell, leading to a decline in the dollar index and a rise in gold prices [1][4] - The U.S. labor market remains resilient, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 147,000 in June, surpassing expectations, and the unemployment rate dropping from 4.2% to 4.1% [1][2] - Current inflation levels in the U.S. are above the Federal Reserve's target, with June's CPI at 2.7% year-on-year, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures [2][3] Group 2 - The absolute value and proportion of U.S. federal government interest expenditures are at historically high levels, with interest spending reaching $278.58 billion in Q1 2025, accounting for 15.6% of regular expenditures [3] - The implementation of tariff policies has created downward pressure on the U.S. economy, with GDP growth slowing to 2% year-on-year in Q1 2025, the lowest since Q1 2023 [3] - The trade deficit remains significant and unstable, with a trade gap of $60.257 billion in April 2025, which widened again to $71.517 billion in May [3] Group 3 - If Powell were to be removed, it could exacerbate the dollar's credit crisis, as market fears of presidential interference in monetary policy could lead to panic [4] - There are internal divisions among Senate Republicans regarding Powell's potential removal, suggesting that the likelihood of such an action is low and could incur high costs [4] - The divergence between the 5-year forward inflation swap rates and the 2-year overnight index swap rates reflects market fears of a loss of confidence in the dollar rather than just concerns over the Fed's independence [4]