Core Insights - The current bond market is expected to show a slight upward shift in the oscillation center, with the 10-year government bond yield projected to reach a phase upper limit of 1.75%-1.80%. Short-term trading should avoid chasing highs and lows, while long-term allocation may consider grid trading for gradual accumulation [1][2][3] Group 1: Basic Logic and Unexpected Impacts - A framework for bond market analysis is constructed based on the "five bowls of noodles" analysis framework and the first principles of the bond market, integrating fundamental logic for the long term and funding logic for the short term, while also considering unexpected impact factors [1][11] - From February to mid-March, the fundamental outlook was positive while the funding outlook was negative, leading to a significant adjustment in the bond market due to the greater impact of short-term logic [1][12] - Since July, the fundamental and funding conditions have remained relatively stable, but the hot performance in equity and commodity markets has created negative external disturbances, reflecting a counterbalancing game between bullish fundamentals and bearish external disturbances [1][13] Group 2: Short-term Bond Market Range - The upper limit of the 10-year government bond yield is theoretically set at 1.80%, while the lower limit is around 1.50%. However, the actual trading process suggests a more realistic lower limit of 1.65% due to investor behavior and market conditions [2][14][15] - The bond market is expected to present a slight upward shift in the oscillation center, with the actual operating range projected to be between 1.75%-1.80% on the upside and 1.65%-1.70% on the downside [2][15] Group 3: Investment Strategy - In the current market environment, it is advised to avoid chasing highs and lows, as the downward adjustments may present better entry opportunities. Long-term investors should trust that the fundamental framework will have a more significant long-term impact than external disturbances [3][18] - For long-term investments, especially for insurance funds, the attractiveness of ultra-long bonds with yields above 2.0% has become more pronounced, suggesting a gradual accumulation strategy through grid trading [3][18] - For short-term trading, the current yield levels are close to the estimated upper limit, indicating a lower necessity for further reduction in positions, with a recommendation to maintain a wait-and-see approach [3][18]