债市短期逻辑切换

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债市日报:8月18日
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-08-18 07:51
Market Overview - The bond market showed significant weakness on August 18, with government bond futures closing down across the board, influenced by strong equity assets [1][2] - The interbank bond yield rose by 3-5 basis points, indicating a shift in market dynamics [1] Bond Futures Performance - The 30-year main contract fell by 1.33% to 116.090, while the 10-year contract decreased by 0.29% to 108.015 [2] - The yields on major interbank bonds increased, with the 30-year special government bond yield rising by 5.5 basis points to 2.049% [2] International Bond Market Trends - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields rose collectively, with the 2-year yield increasing by 1.60 basis points to 3.740% [3] - Asian markets saw Japanese bond yields rise, with the 10-year yield up by 0.6 basis points to 1.571% [3] - European markets also experienced increases in bond yields, with the 10-year French bond yield rising by 9.6 basis points to 3.466% [3] Primary Market Activity - In Hebei province, the bidding results for local bonds showed high demand, with bid multiples exceeding 18 times for several issues [4] - The 10-year bond "25 Hebei 45" had a winning rate of 1.89% and a total bid multiple of 20.92 [4] Funding Conditions - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 266.5 billion yuan at a rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 154.5 billion yuan for the day [5] - Short-term Shibor rates increased across the board, indicating tightening liquidity conditions [5] Institutional Insights - Citic Fixed Income noted that the domestic economy is improving, while uncertainties remain in the global recovery [7] - Huatai Fixed Income suggested that the bond market has not yet confirmed a trend reversal, with a focus on short-term government bonds and convertible bonds [7] - Shenwan Fixed Income highlighted potential volatility in the bond market from August to October, with a cautious outlook on liquidity and government bond supply [7]