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债市日报:9月4日
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-09-04 09:17
Market Performance - The bond market showed mixed performance on September 4, with interbank cash bonds initially strong but yields rising in the afternoon, while government bond futures mostly closed higher [1] - The 30-year main contract rose by 0.26% to 117.330, the 10-year main contract increased by 0.13% to 108.260, and the 5-year main contract went up by 0.06% to 105.755, while the 2-year main contract fell by 0.01% to 102.432 [2] Yield Movements - The yield on the 10-year China Development Bank bond rose by 1.1 basis points to 1.857%, while the 10-year government bond yield increased by 0.5 basis points to 1.7525% [2] - In the Eurozone, the 10-year French bond yield fell by 4.2 basis points to 3.538%, and the 10-year German bond yield decreased by 4.6 basis points to 2.737% [3] - In Asia, the 10-year Japanese bond yield dropped by 3.7 basis points to 1.593% [4] Primary Market - The China Development Bank's three financial bonds had winning yields mostly below the China Bond valuation, with yields of 1.3519%, 1.6702%, and 1.87% for 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year bonds respectively [5] - The bidding multiples for Hebei Province's local bonds exceeded 20 times, with a 10-year bond yield of 1.99% and a 15-year bond yield of 2.22% [5] Liquidity and Monetary Policy - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 2126 billion yuan at a rate of 1.40%, with a net withdrawal of 2035 billion yuan for the day [6] - Short-term Shibor rates mostly rose, with the overnight rate unchanged at 1.316% and the 7-day rate up by 0.4 basis points to 1.437% [6] Institutional Insights - Citic Securities noted that the liquidity gap in September may narrow compared to August, with limited government bond supply disturbances and a supportive monetary policy [7] - Shenwan Hongyuan pointed out that the low interest rate environment has led to significant changes in asset allocation behavior, with funds seeking better alternatives due to low returns on deposits and pure bonds [8]
债市日报:9月3日
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-09-03 08:15
Market Overview - The bond market continued to recover on September 3, with government bond futures rising across the board and interbank bond yields falling by 1-2 basis points [1][2] - The central bank conducted a net withdrawal of 150.8 billion yuan in the open market, indicating a mixed trend in funding rates [1][5] Bond Futures Performance - The 30-year government bond futures rose by 0.46% to 117.150, while the 10-year futures increased by 0.21% to 108.160 [2] - The yields on major interbank bonds mostly declined, with the 10-year government bond yield falling by 1.25 basis points to 1.755% [2] International Bond Market - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields rose collectively, with the 10-year yield increasing by 3.5 basis points to 4.260% [3] - In the Eurozone, the 10-year French bond yield rose by 4.6 basis points to 3.581% [3] Primary Market - The Ministry of Finance's three types of government bonds had weighted average yields lower than the market estimates, with the 182-day bond yield at 1.3101% [4] Funding Conditions - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 229.1 billion yuan at a rate of 1.40%, with a net withdrawal of 150.8 billion yuan for the day [5] - The Shibor rates showed mixed performance, with the overnight rate rising by 0.2 basis points to 1.316% [5] Institutional Insights - The "fixed income +" products faced significant redemption pressure recently, indicating a shift in market dynamics [6] - The basic economic recovery is in line with market consensus, suggesting a capped range for interest rates, while the current market conditions may limit sustained increases in government bonds [7]
债市日报:8月22日
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-08-22 09:29
Market Overview - The bond market experienced a downturn on August 22, with long-term bond pricing slightly higher after VAT adjustments, leading to a weak sentiment in the primary market that affected the secondary market [1] - Government bond futures closed lower across the board, with the 30-year main contract down 0.12% to 115.980, and the 10-year main contract down 0.18% to 107.660 [2] Interest Rates - In the interbank market, the yield on major bonds generally increased, with the 30-year government bond yield rising by 0.6 basis points to 2.08% and the 10-year government bond yield up by 1.75 basis points to 1.875% [2] - The short-term funding rates continued to decline, with the overnight Shibor down 4.8 basis points to 1.418% [5] Fund Flows - Financial data indicates a significant outflow of deposits, estimated to exceed 5 trillion yuan, likely moving into "fixed income+" products and other asset management products [1][6] - The central bank conducted a net injection of 123.2 billion yuan through reverse repos on August 22, with a total of 3.612 trillion yuan in 7-day reverse repos [5] International Market Trends - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields rose across the board, with the 10-year yield increasing by 2.92 basis points to 4.316% [3] - Asian markets saw Japanese bond yields rise, with the 10-year yield up by 1.4 basis points to 1.622% [3] - In the Eurozone, the 10-year French bond yield increased by 4.9 basis points to 3.460% [3] Primary Market Results - The Ministry of Finance reported weighted average winning rates for 10-year and 30-year government bonds at 1.83% and 2.15%, respectively, with bid-to-cover ratios of 2.58 and 2.89 [4] - Guizhou province's local bonds showed strong demand, with bid-to-cover ratios exceeding 24 times for all three issues [4] Institutional Insights - Institutions noted that the current yield on technology innovation bonds is relatively low, suggesting a lower cost-performance ratio if treated as ordinary credit bonds [6] - The phenomenon of "deposit migration" is attributed to declining deposit yields and the emerging "wealth effect" in capital markets, with funds being redirected towards insurance, wealth management, and directly into the stock market [6]
债市日报:8月18日
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-08-18 07:51
Market Overview - The bond market showed significant weakness on August 18, with government bond futures closing down across the board, influenced by strong equity assets [1][2] - The interbank bond yield rose by 3-5 basis points, indicating a shift in market dynamics [1] Bond Futures Performance - The 30-year main contract fell by 1.33% to 116.090, while the 10-year contract decreased by 0.29% to 108.015 [2] - The yields on major interbank bonds increased, with the 30-year special government bond yield rising by 5.5 basis points to 2.049% [2] International Bond Market Trends - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields rose collectively, with the 2-year yield increasing by 1.60 basis points to 3.740% [3] - Asian markets saw Japanese bond yields rise, with the 10-year yield up by 0.6 basis points to 1.571% [3] - European markets also experienced increases in bond yields, with the 10-year French bond yield rising by 9.6 basis points to 3.466% [3] Primary Market Activity - In Hebei province, the bidding results for local bonds showed high demand, with bid multiples exceeding 18 times for several issues [4] - The 10-year bond "25 Hebei 45" had a winning rate of 1.89% and a total bid multiple of 20.92 [4] Funding Conditions - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 266.5 billion yuan at a rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 154.5 billion yuan for the day [5] - Short-term Shibor rates increased across the board, indicating tightening liquidity conditions [5] Institutional Insights - Citic Fixed Income noted that the domestic economy is improving, while uncertainties remain in the global recovery [7] - Huatai Fixed Income suggested that the bond market has not yet confirmed a trend reversal, with a focus on short-term government bonds and convertible bonds [7] - Shenwan Fixed Income highlighted potential volatility in the bond market from August to October, with a cautious outlook on liquidity and government bond supply [7]
低利率环境延续
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-08-11 23:25
Group 1 - The overnight, 1-month, and 1-year Shibor rates increased by 0.06, 0.14, and 0.02 basis points, closing at 1.3150%, 1.5270%, and 1.6380% respectively [1] - The 1-week, 2-week, 3-month, and 9-month Shibor rates decreased by 0.36, 1.39, 0.54, and 0.09 basis points, closing at 1.4320%, 1.4550%, 1.5490%, and 1.6280% respectively [1] - The 6-month Shibor rate remained unchanged at 1.6100% [1] Group 2 - The central bank conducted a regular reverse repurchase operation of 11,267 billion yuan, with 16,632 billion yuan maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 5,365 billion yuan [2] - After July, the central bank reduced the scale of regular reverse repurchase operations and began net withdrawal, indicating a shift in monetary policy [2] - In early August, the central bank executed a small-scale buyout reverse repurchase operation of 7,000 billion yuan, reflecting sufficient liquidity in the domestic money market [2] - A significant increase in trading activity in the A-share market has been observed, with funds shifting from bond funds to equity funds [2] - The Central Committee's Political Bureau meeting set the tone for economic work in the second half of the year, emphasizing the need for macro policies to continue to exert force and maintain moderate monetary policy [2] - The "anti-involution" policy has led to an initial rise in some commodity futures prices, which in turn has boosted spot prices [2] - July's consumption data showed improvement, but external factors, such as the U.S. tax rate determinations, may exert long-term pressure on domestic exports [2] - Economic growth pressure is expected to increase in the second half of the year, with the low interest rate environment likely to remain unchanged [2]