债市高质量发展

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信用利差周报2025 年第 20 期:首批9只信用债ETF获准纳入质押库,债券收益率走势分化-20250610
Zhong Cheng Xin Guo Ji· 2025-06-10 02:48
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The inclusion of 9 credit - bond ETFs in the general pledge - style repurchase collateral list is a significant institutional breakthrough in the bond ETF pledge mechanism, which may enhance the market recognition and investment enthusiasm for credit - bond ETFs, improve the liquidity of the credit - bond market, and optimize the bond market ecosystem [3][8]. - The bond market shows a volatile trend. The issuance of credit bonds has warmed up, and the trading activity in the secondary market has increased. Bond yields show a differentiated trend, with credit spreads generally widening and rating spreads generally narrowing [6][7][35]. - The manufacturing PMI in May showed marginal improvement, but there was an imbalance in supply - demand recovery. Industrial enterprise profits continued to recover [12][13]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Hotspots - On May 29, 2025, China Settlement approved 9 credit - bond ETFs to be included in the general pledge - style repurchase collateral list. As of June 3, the scale of these 9 products exceeded 80 billion yuan, nearly 2.5 times the scale at the beginning of the year. Their secondary - market trading is active [3][8]. - The inclusion of credit - bond ETFs in the collateral range can make up for their shortcomings in liquidity management and financing support, transform them from single - function tools to composite products, and is expected to attract more long - term funds and promote the expansion of the credit - bond market [9][10]. - Since the beginning of this year, bond - type ETFs have expanded against the trend. The inclusion of credit - bond ETFs in the collateral system is a positive factor for the market and may be a key variable for the next - round expansion of credit - bond ETFs [10]. Macroeconomic Data - In May, the manufacturing PMI rose 0.5 percentage points to 49.5%, still in the contraction range but with marginal improvement. The production index returned above the boom - bust line, while the new - order index remained below it, indicating an imbalance in supply - demand recovery. The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI in May dropped to 48.3%, the lowest since October 2022 [12][13]. - From January to April, the profits of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 1.4% year - on - year, 0.6 percentage points faster than from January to March. In April, the profits increased by 3.0% year - on - year, 0.4 percentage points higher than in March [13]. Money Market - Last week, the central bank net - injected 656.6 billion yuan through open - market operations. The overnight and one - month pledged - style repurchase rates decreased by 8bp and 6bp respectively, while other term rates increased by 5 - 8bp. The 3 - month Shibor remained unchanged, and the 1 - year Shibor increased by 1bp, with the spread widening to 5bp [5][16]. Primary Market of Credit Bonds - Last week, the issuance of credit bonds warmed up, with a scale of 286.088 billion yuan, an increase of 44.777 billion yuan from the previous period. The cancellation of issuance also increased by 772 million yuan [21]. - By industry, the infrastructure investment and financing industry's issuance scale was 67.074 billion yuan, an increase of 28.569 billion yuan. The industrial bond issuance scale was 157.159 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.541 billion yuan. Most industries in industrial bonds showed net financing outflows [6][21]. - In terms of issuance costs, the average issuance rates of most bonds with different terms and ratings increased by 2 - 8bp, except for the 1 - year bonds of all grades, whose average issuance rates decreased by 12 - 15bp [21][32]. Secondary Market of Credit Bonds - Last week, the secondary - market trading volume of bonds was 8.655833 trillion yuan, and the average daily trading volume increased by 49.422 billion yuan to 173.1167 billion yuan, indicating increased trading activity [35][36]. - The yields of treasury bonds and policy - bank bonds showed a differentiated trend. The 10 - year treasury bond yield decreased by 5bp to 1.67%. Credit - bond yields fluctuated, with changes ranging from 1 - 10bp [35]. - Credit spreads generally widened by 1 - 12bp, and rating spreads generally narrowed by 1 - 10bp [35].