证券研究报告 固收 第二批科创债 ETF 上报，关注指数成 份券机会 2025 年 8 月 25 日│中国内地 信用周报 信用热点：第二批科创债 ETF 上报，关注指数成份券机会 8 月 20 日第二批 14 只科创债 ETF 集中上报，首批科创债从申报到上市用 时 1 个月，第二批科创债 ETF 也有望较快落地。科创债 ETF 上市以来规模 快速增长、流动性表现较好，已成为信用债 ETF 的第二大品种。受股市走 强、债市偏弱影响，科创债 ETF 净值经历两轮调整。考虑到政策支持+科创 债供给增长+科创债 ETF 质押回购业务落地，科创债 ETF 未来发展可期。 若第二批科创债 ETF 落地，科创债指数成份券流动性有望进一步提升，收 益率仍有下行空间，但短期幅度或有限，且面临股市、政策、重要事件等扰 动较多，建议关注 1-3 年中高等级科创债指数成份券的调整后增配机会。 市场回顾：股强债弱持续，信用债收益率全面上行 SAC No. S0570523080005 SFC No. BTF199 华泰研究 朱沁宜 研究员 zhuqinyi@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 仇文竹* 研究员 S ...

[Table_ReportInfo] 2025 年 08 月 25 日 证券研究报告•固定收益定期报告 债券 ETF 周度跟踪（8.18-8.22） 整体受压于利率上行，可转债 ETF 表现占优 摘要 西南证券研究院 [Table_Author] 分析师：杨杰峰 执业证号：S1250523060001 电话：18190773632 邮箱：yangjf@swsc.com.cn 分析师：叶昱宏 执业证号：S1250525070010 电话：18223492691 邮箱：yeyuh@swsc.com.cn 相关研究 请务必阅读正文后的重要声明部分 S 各类债券 ETF 份额走势：上周国债类、可转债类 ETF 份额激增，信用债类 ETF份额转跌。截至 2025年 8月 22日收盘，国债类、政金债类、地方债类、 信用债类和可转债类份额较 2025 年 8 月 15 日收盘分别变化 61.29 百万份、 -23.71 百万份、无变化、-24.81百万份、520.30百万份，债券类 ETF合计变 化 533.07百万份；较上月底收盘分别变化 88.02百万份、-37.90百万份、-0.40 百万份、169.83百万份、10 ...

信用债周策略 20250824 当前怎么看待信用债 ETF 2025 年 08 月 24 日 ➢ 当前怎么看待信用债 ETF 科创债 ETF 上市以来大部分交易日的日度资金呈现净流入状态，而基准做市信 用债 ETF 的日度资金则大多为净流出状态。8 只基准做市信用债 ETF 于年初上 市，截至 7 月 23 日前整体申购情况较为稳定，每日基本都有资金净流入，自 7 月 23 日开始债市行情走弱，基准做市信用债 ETF 的资金连续出现三天大额净流 出，合计规模超 50 亿元，其中 7 月 24 日的单日净流出规模最大，为 25 亿元。 科创债 ETF 方面，上市当日市场资金大额流入，10 只科创债 ETF 的单日资金净 流入额在 474 亿元左右，上市两日资金净流入超 660 亿元，随后日度资金流入 势头明显放缓，申购情况趋于稳定。7 月 17 日以来至今，8 只基准做市信用债 ETF 的资金净流出规模为 77 亿元，而科创债 ETF 的资金净流入规模为 918 亿 元，可能存在基准做市信用债 ETF 的申购资金被分流到科创债 ETF 的情况。 2025 年以来的三轮调整中，大部分信用债 ETF 的赎回压力可控 ...

大家周六晚上好，有点尴尬，之前说好的每周六晚上，贴一篇星球里的精选内容出来的，结果，过去两周的周末，都身体抱恙，没更新，咱们今天继续。 第一，上周的星球周度精选。 首先比较值得一说的是，截至今天，「表舅和表舅的朋友们」，这个从去年6月开始，仅仅运作了一年零两个月的知识星球， 正式迎来了第7000位小伙 伴。 这应该是金融类星球里，最快速度达到这一里程碑的（之一），希望这一 认真运营、只讲干货、理性客观 的内容社区，能被更多看到。 ...... 好了， 以下是本周的精选，大家扫码下图的二维码 ，即可进入。 今天这篇，我把上周做的， 针对央妈的二季度货币政策报告的解读 ，拿出来聊一下——其实，还是就着《 为什么我不看空债券？ 》里的观点继续说，因 为，我们反复强调， 前所未有的低利率环境 ，是本轮股市走强的最强主线，没有之一，因此，货币政策的变化，其实和股债，都有直接的强关系。 另外， 结构化的货币工具 ， 对新质生产力、对科技板块的资金浇灌 ，也是本轮科技牛市的主要动力之一，因此，无论从任何角度看，理解央妈的货政报 告，对投资权益、投资固收，都有很强的指导意义。 因此，还是拿出来，和大家交流一番。 | 沪指突破 ...

信用债ETF日度跟踪（2025.08.20）显示总规模3459亿元，单日下降10亿元，其中基准做市ETF下降3亿元、科创债ETF上升 11亿元；加权久期中位数3.9年。流动性：整体成交金额943亿元，平均单笔成交额213万元（基准做市189万元、科创债312 万元）；换手率中位数9.9%。估值情况：收益率中位数1.92%，贴水率中位数-34.9BP（基准做市-45.8BP、科创 债-30.9BP）。 以上内容与数据，与有连云立场无关，不构成投资建议。据此操作，风险自担。 （数据来源：WIND资讯，平安基金整理，截至20250815） 本轮债市调整以来平安公司债ETF（511030）回撤控制排名第一，净值相对稳健且回撤可控，可参考下表（本轮债市调整 自2025年2月10日起算）： | 代码 | 簡称 | 易内简称 | 托管人 | 规模(亿) | 近1周奏 | 近1周均贴 近1周涨跌 | | 质押率 | 本轮词整 | 近1年 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 手塞 | 水率 | E | ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing significant adjustments, with over 70% of bond funds reporting losses in August, primarily due to high-risk preferences in the equity market and a general decline in bond fund net values [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of August 20, the stock market's rebound has negatively impacted bond market sentiment, leading to declines in long-term government bond futures [2]. - More than 100 bond funds have seen performance declines exceeding 1% since August, with notable losses in funds heavily invested in long-term interest rate bonds [4]. - The overall performance of bond funds this year has been poor, with over 600 funds reporting losses, indicating a challenging environment for investors seeking stable returns [4]. Group 2: Fund Flows and Investor Behavior - In response to net value adjustments, some bond fund holders have opted for redemptions, with specific funds announcing adjustments to ensure the interests of their investors [5]. - There is a divergence in fund flows for bond ETFs, with some experiencing significant outflows while others, particularly those with larger declines, have seen substantial inflows [5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts express a mixed outlook for the bond market, with expectations of continued volatility and a potential stabilization in the near term, but caution against significant upward movements without a change in interest rate expectations [6][7]. - The current economic environment, including inflation and monetary policy, presents uncertainties for the bond market, leading to a defensive stance among investors [7][8].

Group 1 - The dominant logic in the bond market since May 2025 is major asset allocation rather than "fundamentals + liquidity" [9][10][11] - The low interest rate environment has led to a significant change in residents' asset allocation behavior, with bonds being viewed as "low odds assets" compared to other higher value assets [10][11] - Key indicators to observe the intensity and sustainability of fund diversion include the scale of asset management products, the rate of new resident accounts, margin balances, and non-bank deposits [11][12] Group 2 - The "anti-involution" narrative has altered the macroeconomic discourse, shifting from "weak demand + falling prices" to a focus on improving corporate profitability and potential inflation [17][19] - The bond market's response to "anti-involution" should not be overestimated in the short term, but its long-term impact on price improvement and valuation reassessment is significant [19][20] Group 3 - The bond market should focus on three main expectation differences: external demand, liquidity expectations, and policy expectations, particularly on the demand side [21][22] - The risks in the bond market are gradually being released, with potential pressures from fund diversion and crowded trading structures expected in August to October 2025 [22][24] Group 4 - The expansion of credit bond ETFs presents both opportunities and risks, with potential for increased market volatility and the need for caution regarding component bonds [27][29] - Short-term strategies for credit bonds may involve exploring yield spreads, while caution is advised for long-duration credit bonds and ETFs as they approach profit-taking windows [30][32] Group 5 - The progress of the Southbound Bond Connect expansion offers investment opportunities, particularly in local government bonds and international agency bonds [33][34] - The performance of dim sum bonds is expected to remain strong, with a focus on short-duration sovereign bonds and high-quality local government bonds [34] Group 6 - The approach to low-volatility convertible bonds should shift towards trading rather than allocation, as their trading range narrows [36] - High-volatility convertible bonds should be viewed through a lens of allocation, especially if strong redemption announcements are made [37] Group 7 - The optimal fixed income combination should include short pure bonds as a base, supplemented by mid-to-low-rated convertible bonds and dividend stocks for a balanced portfolio [38]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the share of treasury bond ETFs significantly rebounded, while the growth momentum of credit bond and convertible bond ETFs continued. Convertible bond ETFs showed outstanding performance with an increase in share and net value, as well as the highest cumulative net inflow [2][5]. Summary by Directory 1.1 各类债券 ETF 份额走势 - As of August 15, 2025, the shares of treasury bond, policy - financial bond, local bond, credit bond, and convertible bond ETFs were 555.45 million, 491.75 million, 79.78 million, 3101.15 million, and 4675.35 million respectively, with a total of 8903.48 million for bond - type ETFs. Compared with August 8, 2025, the changes were 37.52 million, - 9.28 million, - 1.60 million, 40.77 million, and 241.90 million respectively, and the total change for bond - type ETFs was 309.32 million. Compared with the end of last month, the changes were 26.72 million, - 14.39 million, - 0.40 million, 194.64 million, and 490.20 million respectively, and the total change for bond - type ETFs was 696.78 million [2][5]. 1.2 主要债券 ETF 份额走势 - The share changes of major bond ETFs were consistent with those of various bond ETFs. As of August 15, 2025, the shares of selected major bond ETFs changed by 24.50 million, - 8.58 million, - 1.00 million, 25.20 million, and 236.30 million respectively compared with the previous week's closing [2][7]. - The share trend of credit bond ETFs was gentle. As of August 15, 2025, among the 8 existing credit bond ETFs, most showed no change compared with the previous week's closing, except for one with a 0.30 - million increase [2][10]. - The share performance of individual science - innovation bond ETFs was differentiated, but the overall growth was maintained. As of August 15, 2025, among the 10 existing science - innovation bond ETFs, the share changes compared with the previous week's closing were - 1.25 million, 0.44 million, 40.15 million, - 0.25 million, no change, no change, 0.10 million, 3.40 million, 0.05 million, and no change respectively [2][13]. 1.3 主要债券 ETF 净值走势 - Last week, the net values of major bond ETFs turned down, while convertible bond ETFs rose against the trend. As of August 15, 2025, the net values of selected major bond ETFs changed by - 1.75%, - 0.48%, - 0.12%, - 0.08%, and 1.56% respectively compared with the previous week's closing [2][15]. - The net values of credit bond ETFs declined across the board. As of August 15, 2025, the net values of 8 credit bond ETFs changed by - 0.14%, - 0.14%, - 0.13%, - 0.12%, - 0.18%, - 0.18%, - 0.19%, and - 0.18% respectively compared with the previous week's closing [2][17]. - The net values of science - innovation bond ETFs slightly declined. As of August 15, 2025, the net values of 10 science - innovation bond ETFs changed by - 0.16%, - 0.13%, - 0.16%, - 0.17%, - 0.15%, - 0.18%, - 0.17%, - 0.12%, - 0.16%, and - 0.15% respectively compared with the previous week's closing [2][21]. 1.4 部分债券 ETF 净流入情况 - Convertible bond ETFs had the highest cumulative net inflow last week and this month. Weekly, the top three bond ETFs with cumulative net inflows were convertible bond ETFs, urban investment bond ETFs, and 30 - year treasury bond ETFs, with net inflow amounts of 313.03 million yuan, 36.12 million yuan, and 31.13 million yuan respectively. Monthly, the top three were convertible bond ETFs, urban investment bond ETFs, and Shanghai Stock Exchange convertible bond ETFs, with net inflow amounts of 556.90 million yuan, 197.80 million yuan, and 86.56 million yuan respectively. In terms of cumulative trading days, the top three in the past 10 trading days were convertible bond ETFs (481.93 million yuan), urban investment bond ETFs (186.62 million yuan), and Shanghai Stock Exchange convertible bond ETFs (92.76 million yuan); and in the past 20 trading days, they were convertible bond ETFs (1096.32 million yuan), urban investment bond ETFs (242.94 million yuan), and Shanghai Stock Exchange convertible bond ETFs (152.66 million yuan) [2][24].

8 FI TF 15 F E 3 或用官文教育系列主 孙 越、张紫睿、汤志宇、吴宇 擎、杜 润 琛、孙 飞 帆 王 一 凡 、刘 玉 、唐 元 懋 、郑 子 勋 、顾 一 格 、王 宇 辰 +86-01053827720( 全球 )、+852-51089680( 中国香港 )、+886-277083288( 中国台湾 )； | 15:30-16:10 | 债券量化择时框架与因子筛选初步 | | --- | --- | | | 唐元懋 / 孙越 - 固定收益领域负责人 / 分析师 | | 16:20-17:00 | 突破新高,转债估值和机构行为 | | | 刘 玉 - 固定收益分析师 | | 17:10-17:50 | 穿越牛熊,转债择时和择券框架 | | | 顾一格 - 固定收益分析师 | | | 晚间 | | 19:30-20:10 | 公募 REIT:低息环境下的攻守之道 刘 玉 / 汤志宇 - 固定收益分析师 | | 20:20-21:00 | 南向通新政策、海外利率体系和债券资产 | | | 王一凡 - 固定收益分析师 | | 日本文日 | DECTOR | 更多国泰海通研究和服务 亦可联系对口销售获 ...

Group 1 - The first batch of Sci-Tech Bond ETFs has achieved significant growth, with a total scale exceeding 1119.35 billion yuan, representing an increase of 286.15% since its launch [1][2] - Eight out of the ten initial Sci-Tech Bond ETFs have surpassed the 10 billion yuan mark, with the largest being the Jiashi Sci-Tech Bond ETF at 16 billion yuan [1] - The market is preparing for a second batch of Sci-Tech Bond ETFs, with multiple fund companies actively working on their applications, indicating strong competition and demand [3] Group 2 - The launch of the first batch of Sci-Tech Bond ETFs has reshaped the bond ETF market landscape, expanding the total number of bond ETFs to 39, including various types such as credit bond ETFs and convertible bond ETFs [2] - There remains a gap in the market for comprehensive bond, green bond, and central enterprise theme ETFs, suggesting potential areas for future development [2] - The second batch of Sci-Tech Bond ETFs is expected to maintain similar tracking indices as the first batch, focusing on AAA-rated technology innovation company bonds [3]