2025 年 10 月 10 日 如何寻找债券市场的合理定 -近期市场反馈及思考 6 近期与投资者交流，投资者更为关心的是"如何寻找债券市场的合理定价"，本文就以上话题 汇总投资者最为关心的 10 个话题（涵盖利率、信用及转债等方面）。 相关研究 证券分析师 黃伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 奕强 A0230524110003 luanqiang@swsresearch.com 杨雪芳 A0230524120003 yangxf@swsresearch.com 张晋源 A0230525040001 zhangjy@swsresearch.com 王明路 A0230525060003 wangml@swsresearch.com 徐亚 A0230524060002 xuya@swsresearch.com 研究支持 杨琳琳 A0230124120001 yangll@swsresearch.com 王哲一 A0230123100001 wangzy@swsresearch.com 曹璇 A0230125070001 caoxuan@swsresearch.co ...

债 券 研 究 2025 年 10 月 10 日 如何寻找债券市场的合理定价 ——近期市场反馈及思考 6 近期与投资者交流，投资者更为关心的是"如何寻找债券市场的合理定价"，本文就以上话题 汇总投资者最为关心的 10 个话题（涵盖利率、信用及转债等方面）。 相关研究 证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 栾强 A0230524110003 luanqiang@swsresearch.com 杨雪芳 A0230524120003 yangxf@swsresearch.com 张晋源 A0230525040001 zhangjy@swsresearch.com 王明路 A0230525060003 wangml@swsresearch.com 徐亚 A0230524060002 xuya@swsresearch.com 研究支持 杨琳琳 A0230124120001 yangll@swsresearch.com 王哲一 A0230123100001 wangzy@swsresearch.com 曹璇 A0230125070001 caoxuan@swsr ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the credit bond market adjusted significantly, with the ChinaBond New Composite Index falling 0.22% for the week. Short - term and medium - to - long - term pure bond funds declined by 0.04% and 0.12% respectively. The CSI AAA Sci - tech Innovation Bond Index and the SSE Benchmark Market - making Corporate Bond Index dropped 0.30% and 0.34% respectively [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Funds Flow - As of September 26, 2025, bond - type ETFs had a net inflow of 117.5 billion yuan in the past week. Interest - rate, credit, and convertible - bond ETFs had net outflows of 1.444 billion yuan, net inflows of 119.269 billion yuan, and net outflows of 325 million yuan respectively. Among credit - type ETFs, short - term financing, corporate bonds, and urban investment bonds had net outflows of 574 million yuan, 22 million yuan, and 70 million yuan respectively. Market - making credit - bond ETFs had a net outflow of 1.425 billion yuan, while sci - tech innovation bonds had a net inflow of 121.36 billion yuan. - As of September 26, 2025, the cumulative net inflows of interest - rate, credit, and convertible - bond ETFs for the year were 62.338 billion yuan, 420.901 billion yuan, and 26.697 billion yuan respectively, totaling 509.936 billion yuan [4]. 3.2 Net Value Performance - Throughout the week, the net values of interest - rate and credit - bond ETF products adjusted to varying degrees. The 30 - year Treasury Bond ETF performed weakly, falling 0.50% for the week as of September 26, 2025. Among other products, the benchmark Treasury Bond ETF and the Policy - Financial Bond ETF declined by about 0.2%. The Treasury - Policy Financial Bond ETF, the 0 - 4 Local Government Bond ETF, and the Short - term Financing ETF performed well. The Convertible Bond ETF and the SSE Convertible Bond ETF rose 0.88% and 0.89% respectively last week [5]. 3.3 Performance of Credit - Bond ETFs and Sci - tech Innovation Bond ETFs - As of September 26, 2025, the median unit net values of credit - bond ETFs and sci - tech innovation bond ETFs were 1.0047 and 0.9931 respectively, falling 0.28% and 0.29% for the week. Among credit - bond ETFs, the SSE Corporate Bond ETF and the Credit - Bond ETF Fund both declined 0.34%, performing weakly, while the Credit - Bond ETF Tianhong and the Credit - Bond ETF Dacheng performed better. Among sci - tech innovation bond ETFs, the Sci - tech Innovation Bond ETF Southern fell 0.32%, and the Sci - tech Innovation Bond ETF E Fund and the Sci - tech Innovation Bond ETF Invesco performed relatively well. - As of September 26, 2025, the median discount rate of credit - bond ETFs was 41BP, and that of sci - tech innovation bond ETFs was 9BP [6]. 3.4 Credit - Type ETF Duration Tracking - As of September 26, 2025, the holding durations of the Short - term Financing ETF, the Corporate Bond ETF, and the Urban Investment Bond ETF were 0.31 years, 2.06 years, and 2.22 years respectively. Among market - making credit - bond ETFs, the median holding durations of products tracking the Shanghai Market - making Corporate Bond and Shenzhen Market - making Corporate Bond were 4.15 years and 2.99 years respectively. Among sci - tech innovation bond ETFs, the median holding durations of products tracking the AAA Sci - tech Innovation Bond, the Shanghai AAA Sci - tech Innovation Bond, and the Shenzhen AAA Sci - tech Innovation Bond were 3.26 years, 3.53 years, and 2.97 years respectively [9].

近期债市情绪低落，在股市偏强震荡和资金偏紧的情况下，债市继续下跌，目前30Y国债已上行至2.1%以上，10Y国债已上行 至1.8%以上，均为年内收益率阶段性高点，配置价值已现。 信用债ETF日度跟踪显示总规模4649亿元，单日上升22.3亿元，其中基准做市ETF下降1.0亿元、科创债ETF上升39.8亿元；加权 久期中位数3.5年。流动性：整体成交金额1238亿元，平均单笔成交额295万元（基准做市74万元、科创债338万元）；换手率中 位数23.0%。估值情况：收益率中位数1.99%，贴水率中位数-16.1BP（基准做市-55.0BP、科创债-12.2BP）。 （数据来源：WIND资讯，平安基金整理，截至20250919） 平安公司债ETF（511030）产品定位短融ETF+，近一周净值回撤可控（仅10bp），周均贴水小（仅4bp），规模稳定，且是少 数几家采用中债估值的债券ETF之一，优势相对突出。本周继续关注本轮债市调整以来平安公司债ETF（511030）回撤控制排 名第一，净值相对稳健且回撤可控，可参考下表（本轮债市调整自2025年8月10日起算）： | 代码 | 同樣 | 粉肉骨称 | 托管人 | ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the growing importance of bond ETFs in the current investment landscape, particularly for bank wealth management companies facing an "asset shortage" and seeking refined investment management tools [1][3]. - The recent launch of the second batch of 14 sci-tech bond ETFs has increased the total number of such products to 24, indicating a significant uptick in market interest and investment [1][2]. - As of September 24, the total scale of the first batch of sci-tech bond ETFs reached 128.57 billion, with several products exceeding 15 billion, showcasing robust demand and growth in this sector [1][2]. Group 2 - Wealth management funds have become a crucial driver of the growth in sci-tech bond ETF scales, with institutions like Xingyin Wealth and Zhaoyin Wealth actively participating in the market [2][3]. - The dual considerations of optimizing asset allocation and enhancing liquidity are key reasons why bank wealth management funds favor bond ETFs, allowing for diversified and efficient investment strategies [3][4]. - Bond ETFs offer superior liquidity compared to other fixed-income assets, with mechanisms such as T+0 trading and the ability to pledge for financing, making them attractive to institutional investors [4][5]. Group 3 - The article warns of potential market volatility due to "coupon-snatching" behavior by institutions, which may lead to mispricing of component bonds within the ETFs [4][6]. - The rapid influx of new capital into credit bond ETFs has created a "snatching" phenomenon, where institutions preemptively purchase related component bonds, leading to increased trading activity and turnover rates [5][6]. - Analysts caution about the re-pricing risks associated with component bonds of sci-tech bond ETFs, particularly in a volatile market environment where large sell-offs could exacerbate losses [6].

Group 1 - The second batch of Sci-Tech Innovation Bond ETFs will be listed on September 24, with 14 public funds participating in the issuance, following the first batch launched on July 17 [1] - The total issuance scale of the second batch of 14 Sci-Tech Innovation Bond ETFs reaches 40.786 billion yuan, with 13 of them exceeding 2.9 billion yuan each [1] - The total scale of Sci-Tech Innovation Bond ETFs has surpassed 170 billion yuan, while the overall scale of bond ETFs has exceeded 600 billion yuan for the first time [1] Group 2 - The largest bond ETFs include Convertible Bond ETF at 59.218 billion yuan, Short-term Bond ETF at 58.516 billion yuan, and Policy Financial Bond ETF at 45.615 billion yuan [3] - Other notable bond ETFs include 30-Year Treasury Bond ETF at 30.895 billion yuan and City Investment Bond ETF at 24.767 billion yuan [3] - The newly launched Sci-Tech Innovation Bond ETFs are expected to enhance the liquidity and market presence of bond ETFs [8] Group 3 - According to Guotai Junan Securities, the ticket interest strategy will dominate from 2025 onwards, with Sci-Tech Innovation Bond ETFs showing resilience during market adjustments [7] - The performance of actively managed pure bond funds indicates that short-term bonds outperform medium to long-term bonds, and credit bonds are favored over interest rate bonds [7] - The liquidity of bond ETFs is expected to improve as the current market environment gradually stabilizes [7] Group 4 - The new sales fee regulations by the China Securities Regulatory Commission are anticipated to create greater development opportunities for bond ETFs [8] - The proposed changes in redemption fees may lead to a shift in institutional investment from interest rate bond funds to bond ETFs, enhancing their attractiveness [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Last week (9/15 - 9/19), bond - type ETFs had a total net capital outflow of 5.1 billion yuan, with interest - rate bond ETFs, credit - bond ETFs, and convertible - bond ETFs having net outflows of 1.9 billion yuan, 0.7 billion yuan, and 2.5 billion yuan respectively. Convertible - bond ETFs and credit - bond ETFs had significant drawdowns, while the net value of interest - rate bond ETFs changed little [2][11]. - The second batch of sci - tech bond ETFs will be listed on September 24. With the establishment of these 14 new funds, the total scale of sci - tech bond ETFs has exceeded 170 billion yuan, and the overall scale of bond ETFs has exceeded 600 billion yuan for the first time [3][14]. Summary by Directory 1. Issuance Progress Tracking - The second batch of 14 sci - tech bond ETFs from 14 public funds such as ICBC Credit Suisse Fund and Morgan Fund started issuing on September 12. They were submitted on August 20, approved on September 8, and scheduled for issuance on September 12. The total issuance scale of these 14 sci - tech bond ETFs reached 40.786 billion yuan, and 13 of them had an issuance scale of over 2.9 billion yuan [3][14]. 2. Existing Product Tracking - As of September 19, 2025, the circulating market values of interest - rate bond ETFs, credit - bond ETFs, and convertible - bond ETFs were 140 billion yuan, 355.8 billion yuan, and 70.1 billion yuan respectively, with credit - bond ETFs accounting for 63% of the scale. Compared with last week, their circulating market values decreased by 2.2 billion yuan, 0.02 billion yuan, and 3.6 billion yuan respectively [4][16]. - Among credit - bond ETFs, the circulating market values of benchmark - making credit - bond ETFs and sci - tech bond ETFs were 123.7 billion yuan and 125.9 billion yuan respectively, with a decrease of 0.6 billion yuan and an increase of 2.3 billion yuan compared to last week [19]. 3. ETF Performance Tracking - Recently, the market has shown range - bound fluctuations. In the past two weeks, the cumulative unit net values of interest - rate bond ETFs and credit - bond ETFs closed at 1.18 and 1.02 respectively [23]. - As of September 19, with February 7 as the base date, the average cumulative yield of benchmark - making credit - bond ETFs dropped to 0.30%; with July 17 as the base date, the cumulative yield of sci - tech bond ETFs dropped to - 0.46% and remained in the negative range [24]. 4. Premium/Discount Rate Tracking - Last week, the average premium/discount rates of credit - bond ETFs, interest - rate bond ETFs, and convertible - bond ETFs were - 0.17%, - 0.03%, and - 0.15% respectively, indicating that the average trading price was lower than the fund's unit net value and the allocation sentiment was low. Specifically, the weekly average premium/discount rates of benchmark - making credit - bond ETFs and sci - tech bond ETFs were - 0.23% and - 0.06% respectively [6][30]. 5. Turnover Rate Tracking - Last week, the turnover rate was in the order of interest - rate bond ETFs > convertible - bond ETFs > credit - bond ETFs. The weekly turnover rate of interest - rate bond ETFs rose to 179%, that of credit - bond ETFs remained around 89%, and that of convertible - bond ETFs dropped to 100%. Specifically, products like Huaxia Shanghai Stock Exchange Benchmark - Making Treasury Bond ETF and Haitong Shanghai Stock Exchange 5 - Year Local Government Bond ETF had relatively high turnover rates [6][36].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Second - batch 14 science - innovation bond ETFs were launched, with a total of about 40 billion yuan in raised funds. The report analyzes their impact on index component bonds and the potential of component bonds [3][9]. - Despite the continuous adjustment of the bond market, the total scale of credit bond ETFs increased in August, reaching around 350 billion yuan. Science - innovation bond ETFs contributed most of the scale increment, while the scale of benchmark market - making credit bond ETFs declined [3][9]. - Since July 18, component bonds of various tenors and implicit ratings have been adjusted to different degrees. Shorter - term bonds are more resilient, and the longer the tenor, the greater the adjustment. There is a certain divergence among investors regarding the future market of component bonds [4][47]. - Based on the experience of benchmark market - making credit bond ETFs, the scale of ETFs has a significant impact on component bonds. The upcoming expansion of science - innovation bond ETFs will bring about 40 billion yuan in incremental funds, and component bonds of science - innovation bonds are more resilient than market - making component bonds. However, the excess return of current component bonds may be relatively limited [4][49]. - Considering that interest rates have risen to a stage high, after the listing of the second - batch science - innovation ETFs, the market demand has increased. Without unexpected shocks, the liquidity of component bonds is expected to remain good, and they can be allocated from a coupon - oriented perspective [6][50]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 How Have Credit Bond ETFs Performed Recently? - Despite the continuous adjustment of the bond market, the total scale of credit bond ETFs increased in August, currently around 350 billion yuan. Science - innovation bond ETFs contributed most of the scale increment, with a total increase of 27.8 billion yuan. The scale of benchmark market - making credit bond ETFs decreased by 10.7 billion yuan compared to July 18, while the scale of urban investment bond and corporate bond ETFs changed little, and the scale of short - term financing ETFs increased by 5.7 billion yuan [9][11]. - In terms of secondary - market trading activity, the turnover rates of market - making credit bond and science - innovation bond ETFs are in a fluctuating downward trend, with the current 7 - day moving average turnover rates around 20% and 30% respectively. The turnover rate of short - term financing ETFs has been rising, increasing from about 20% to over 50% since the second half of the year [11]. - Since the beginning of the year, among the indices tracked by credit bond ETFs, the Shanghai Urban Investment Bond index has the largest increase (1.53%), followed by the Shenzhen AAA Science - innovation Bond (1.40%) and the ChinaBond AAA Science - innovation Bond (1.24%) [15]. 3.2 How Have the Component Bonds of the Science - innovation Bond Index Performed? - Since the second half of the year, the performance of component bonds of the science - innovation bond index can be divided into three stages: rapid decline in valuation during the ETF application stage in June; intensified bond - grabbing market after the subscription ended on July 7, with component bond valuation inverting; and since the official listing of science - innovation bond ETFs on July 17, the excess spread of component bonds has oscillated and turned positive, showing signs of catch - up decline in the recent two weeks [17][19]. - From the perspective of low - valuation transactions and turnover rates, since the beginning of the year, science - innovation bonds have mostly had low - valuation transactions. After late July, high - valuation transactions occurred intensively, and the turnover rate continued to decline after August, indicating that investors have certain divergence regarding the future market of component bonds [4][17]. - As of September 12, high - grade component bonds of various tenors are still undervalued compared to medium - and short - term notes of the same tenor and rating. Since the bond market adjustment on July 18, component bonds of various tenors and implicit ratings have been adjusted to different degrees, with shorter - term bonds being more resilient [21]. 3.3 Will the Component Bonds Have Excess Performance? - For benchmark market - making credit bond ETFs, in the first quarter, the market was in adjustment, and the scale increased slowly. In the second quarter, the scale grew rapidly, and the excess spread of component bonds decreased significantly. After late July, the scale declined, and the excess spread of component bonds widened [25][26]. - The upcoming expansion of science - innovation bond ETFs will bring about 40 billion yuan in incremental funds, and the component bonds of science - innovation bonds are more resilient than market - making component bonds. However, the excess return of current component bonds may be relatively limited due to the weaker environment for credit spread compression in the fourth quarter, institutions' early "bond hoarding" in the second - batch, and the implementation of positive factors in the first - batch [4][32][49]. 3.4 How to Allocate Component Bonds in the Future? - As of September 12, 10 science - innovation bond ETFs hold a total of 636 individual bonds. Currently, science - innovation bond ETFs prefer component bonds with tenors of 2 - 3 years and 3 - 5 years, with the proportion of holdings in the balance of index component bonds being 12.3% and 10.3% respectively, and the overall portfolio duration ranging from 2.98 to 4.14 years [33]. - Since July 25, the weighted average remaining term of component bonds of science - innovation bond ETFs has shown an inverted V - shape. After the listing of ETFs, the duration was generally lengthened quickly, and then continued to decrease during the adjustment period, currently dropping to 3.73 years [39]. - Considering that interest rates have risen to a stage high, after the listing of the second - batch science - innovation ETFs, the market demand has increased. Without unexpected shocks, the liquidity of component bonds is expected to remain good, and they can be allocated from a coupon - oriented perspective [6][50]. 3.5 Summary - The second - batch 14 science - innovation bond ETFs were launched, with a total of about 40 billion yuan in raised funds. The report analyzes their impact on index component bonds and the potential of component bonds [46]. - Credit bond ETFs' scale increased in August, with science - innovation bond ETFs contributing most of the increment. The Shanghai Urban Investment Bond index had the largest increase since the beginning of the year [3][46]. - Since July 18, component bonds of science - innovation bonds have been adjusted, and there is divergence among investors regarding their future market. The excess return of component bonds may be limited, but they can be allocated from a coupon - oriented perspective [4][47][49].

信用债ETF，全称为信用债券交易型开放式指数基金，是一种在交易所上市交易、以信用债券指数为跟 踪标的的基金产品。投资者买卖一单位信用债ETF，等同于投资由一篮子企业发行的债券，从而实现投 资的分散化，有效降低单一发行人的违约风险，并提升投资流动性。 与利率债ETF相比，信用债ETF通常能提供更高的票息收益，它的投资标的涵盖多个细分领域。根据底 层资产，信用债ETF可分为短融ETF、公司债ETF、城投债ETF、基准做市信用债ETF、科创债ETF。 在政策推动下，今年以来信用债ETF数量和规模快速扩容：截至9月5日，产品数量从3只增长至20只， 其中10只为科创债ETF；规模从541亿元增长至3586亿元。 从投资范围和投资比例要求来看，信用债ETF主要投资于标的指数成分券和备选成分券，且可以配置其 他债券类资产。从投资策略来看，债券ETF普遍采用抽样复制策略跟踪标的指数。基金管理人不持有标 的指数的全部成分券，而是从指数成分券中选取部分代表性券种构建投资组合，以实现对指数收益率的 近似跟踪。 与其他债券ETF一样，信用债ETF有一级市场和二级市场两个渠道。相较传统的场外信用债基金，信用 债ETF在产品设计上具备 ...

Core Insights - The competitive and cooperative relationship among bond investors is complex, with public funds being a key element of inter-industry cooperation. Recent regulatory changes may reshape the institutional ecology of the bond market, leading to a slight rise in interest rates due to "efficiency loss" in the market [1][4][29] - The bond market is expected to enter a target range in the short term, with weak financing demand and a potential pause in market activity due to the long holiday effect. The strategy suggests focusing on the short end of the curve while waiting for adjustments [1][11] Phase Analysis of Institutional Cooperation - The evolution of institutional cooperation in the bond market can be divided into three phases: 1. **Phase One (2008-2013)**: Encouragement of policy and channel innovation led to risk accumulation, with banks dominating and non-banks supplementing the market. The bond fund's professional attributes began to emerge [2][12] 2. **Phase Two (2014-2018)**: Increased leverage and risk led to strong regulatory measures that reshaped the ecosystem. The relationship between wealth management and bond funds shifted from cooperation to competition, focusing on compliance and professional capabilities [2][17] 3. **Phase Three (2019-Present)**: The implementation of asset management regulations has deepened cooperation among institutions, with bond funds becoming key players due to their professional research capabilities and flexible financing tools [3][23] Recent Policy Changes - Recent public fund sales regulations may weaken the cost-effectiveness of bond funds and enhance the advantages of wealth management products. The uncertainty surrounding tax policies for public funds is also a growing concern [4][30] - The regulatory environment is expected to lead to structural changes in the bond market, with banks and insurance companies potentially shifting towards more autonomous investment strategies [5][43] Future Competitive Landscape and Product Development - The bond market may see a shift where banks and insurance companies increasingly favor self-directed investments, while the demand for public bond funds from wealth management and insurance asset management may continue to decline [5][46] - Other asset management institutions, such as wealth management and securities firms, are likely to benefit from the changing landscape, enhancing their competitive edge [5][47] - The bond funds are expected to adapt by expanding their product lines, focusing on diverse strategies such as "doing broad," "doing deep," "doing new," and "doing tools" to meet new market demands [5][48][49]