Report Information - Report Type: Iron Ore Daily Review [1] - Date: November 6, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The current fundamentals of iron ore show an expectation of increased supply and weakening demand due to the profit constraints of downstream steel enterprises, leading to a weak overall fundamental situation and a downward trend in ore prices. The current iron ore futures market lacks a clear main operating logic, and the price fluctuates within the previous trading range. It is necessary to observe whether there are signs of improvement in steel enterprise profits and the support level of the lower edge of the previous trading range. Considering that the current ratio of rebar to iron ore is at a historically low level, an arbitrage strategy of "going long on rebar and short on iron ore" can be considered [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Future Outlook 3.1.1 Futures Market - On November 5, the main 2601 contract of iron ore futures fluctuated weakly, opening lower and then rising slightly, closing at 776.0 yuan/ton, down 0.26% [7]. - The table shows the price, trading volume, and open interest of steel and iron ore futures main contracts on November 5. For example, the RB2601 contract closed at 3024 yuan/ton, down 1.21%; the I2601 contract closed at 776 yuan/ton, down 0.26% [5]. - The table also shows the open interest of the top 20 long and short positions in the black - series futures on November 5. The long - short position difference of the I2601 contract was - 7,262, with a deviation of - 2.06% [8]. 3.1.2 Spot Market and Technical Analysis - On November 5, the main iron ore overseas quotes decreased by 0.5 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of main - grade iron ore at Qingdao Port remained unchanged from the previous trading day [9]. - Technically, the daily KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2601 contract continued to decline, and the daily MACD indicator formed a death cross [9]. 3.1.3 Future Outlook - Supply: The shipments from Australia and Brazil have increased, and the arrivals have significantly rebounded after two consecutive weeks of low levels. Considering the cumulative shipments of 109.784 billion tons in the past four weeks, a 3.78% increase compared with the previous four - week period, it is expected that the shipment volume will remain at a relatively high level, and the arrivals in November will fluctuate at a relatively high level, showing a pattern of being low in the first half and high in the second half. The first shipment of iron ore from Simandou in Guinea is expected to be sent in November, which may suppress the prices of far - month iron ore contracts [10][11]. - Demand: The daily average pig iron production has continued to decline and has been below 2.4 million tons for two consecutive weeks, mainly due to the continuous narrowing of steel production profits, with more than half of steel enterprises in a loss state. It is expected that the pig iron production will continue to decline. The production and demand of the five major steel products have recovered, but there is a divergence from the pig iron production data, and the sustainability of the demand recovery needs to be observed. Considering the cooling weather, the demand for construction steel may be suppressed [11]. - Inventory: Steel mills have returned to the state of replenishing inventory on demand, with the inventory available days at a relatively low level of 20 - 21 days this year. The port inventory has continued to accumulate and has reached 145 million tons, and it is expected that the port inventory will continue to accumulate slightly [11]. 3.2 Industry News - According to Mysteel data, from October 27 to November 2, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 1.7436 million square meters, a 3% increase compared with the previous period and a 35.9% decrease compared with the same period last year. The total transaction (signing) area of second - hand housing was 2.1225 million square meters, a 5.9% decrease compared with the previous period and an 18.5% decrease compared with the same period last year [12]. - On the afternoon of October 31, President Xi Jinping met with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau during the 32nd APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting in Gyeongju, South Korea, reaching important consensus and providing strategic guidance for the improvement and development of China - Canada relations. The Chinese side is willing to work with the Canadian side to resume and restart exchanges and cooperation in various fields and promote the solution of specific economic and trade issues of mutual concern [12]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices of main iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the price differences between high - grade/low - grade ores and PB powder, the basis between iron ore spot and the January contract, the shipment volumes from Brazil and Australia, the arrivals at 45 ports, domestic mine capacity utilization, main port iron ore trading volumes, steel mill iron ore inventory available days, imported sintered powder ore inventory, port iron ore inventory and dispatch volumes, sample steel mill tax - free pig iron costs, blast furnace and electric furnace operating rates and capacity utilization rates, national daily average pig iron production, the apparent consumption of the five major steel products, the weekly production of the five major steel products, and the steel mill inventory of the five major steel products. All data sources are from Mysteel and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [16][20][26][28][29][35][40][45]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply has a growth expectation, while demand continues to weaken under the suppression of steel enterprises' profits, and the overall fundamentals are relatively weak, leading to a weakening trend in iron ore prices. The current iron ore futures price fluctuates within the previous trading range, and it is necessary to observe whether there are signs of improvement in steel enterprises' profits and the support level of the lower limit of the previous trading range. Considering that the current rebar - iron ore ratio is at a historically low level, one can consider the arbitrage strategy of "going long on rebar and short on iron ore" to increase the rebar - iron ore ratio [4][6][69]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Iron ore futures main contract**: In October, the iron ore futures 2601 contract showed a wide - range volatile trend. It opened at 782.0 yuan/ton on October 9, then quickly declined, reached the monthly low of 760.0 yuan/ton on October 21, and then rebounded rapidly, hitting the monthly high of 810.5 yuan/ton on October 30. As of the close on October 31, it rose 19.5 yuan/ton or 2.50% from the September 30 closing price of 780.5 yuan/ton to 800 yuan/ton [5][12][13]. - **Rebar - iron ore ratio**: In October, the rebar - iron ore ratio (rebar main futures price / iron ore main futures price) generally showed a trend of "slight decline - volatile increase - decline again". It started to decline slightly from 3.9165 on October 9, reached the monthly low (also the lowest level in the past 10 years for the main contract ratio) of 3.8322 on October 13, then rose rapidly to the monthly high of 3.9700 on October 20, and then declined again. As of October 31, the ratio was 3.8825, down 0.0340 from the beginning of the month [15][16]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Environment Analysis 3.2.1 International Macroeconomic Analysis - **Sino - US tariff game**: Before the end of September, the Sino - US trade situation was generally easing, and a preliminary agreement was reached on the TikTok issue. However, in early October, the game between the two sides escalated unexpectedly. The US introduced a series of measures, and China counterattacked. In the middle of the month, the US attitude softened, and the two sides agreed to hold a new round of economic and trade consultations. At the end of the month, the two heads of state met in Busan, South Korea, and reached consensus on multiple issues. Although the negotiation results sent positive signals, the market weakened after the positive news was realized [18][20][21]. - **Fed's interest rate decision**: On October 30, the Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% - 4.00%, which was in line with market expectations, and announced the end of balance - sheet reduction on December 1. After the meeting, Powell's statement was interpreted as slightly hawkish, and the probability of a December interest rate cut declined, causing short - term fluctuations in gold and US stocks [22]. 3.2.2 Domestic Real Estate Analysis - **Sales data**: From January to September, the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of commercial housing sales area and sales volume were - 5.5% and - 7.9% respectively, with the decline further expanding compared to the previous month. In September, the year - on - year decline of the second - hand housing sales price index in 70 large and medium - sized cities continued, with the decline in first - tier, second - tier, and third - tier cities narrowing by 0.3, 0.2, and 0.3 percentage points respectively compared to August [23][24]. - **Investment data**: From January to September, the national real estate development investment decreased by 13.9% year - on - year, with the decline expanding by 1 percentage point compared to the previous month, reaching the second - lowest level since March 2020. The decline in September further widened from 19.5% in August to 21.3%. The enthusiasm of real estate enterprises for development remained low, and the improvement of the real estate investment side still required a long wait [24]. 3.3 Fundamental Factor Analysis 3.3.1 Supply Side - **Imported ore**: In October, the iron ore shipment volume continued to increase slightly. As the end of the year approaches, the subsequent shipment volume is expected to remain at a relatively high level. The arrival volume in November is expected to fluctuate at a relatively high level, showing a trend of low in the front and high in the back. The combined shipment volume of Australia and Brazil in the past four weeks was 109.784 million tons, a 3.78% increase compared to the previous four - week period [31][32]. - **Domestic ore**: Since the beginning of the year, the domestic iron ore production has decreased year - on - year, but the decline has gradually narrowed. In October, the domestic mine capacity utilization rate first decreased and then increased, and it is expected to hover around 60% in the future. The 1 - 9 domestic iron ore production was 761 million tons, a 2.55% year - on - year decrease, with the decline narrowing by 0.9 percentage points compared to January - August [35]. 3.3.2 Inventory Side - **Port inventory**: As of October 31, the 45 - port inventory was 145.4248 million tons, an increase of 1.1889 million tons compared to the previous week. The port inventory has accumulated this month, mainly due to the slight increase in arrival volume and downstream production cuts. It is expected that the port inventory will continue to accumulate slightly [36]. - **Steel enterprise inventory**: As of the week of October 31, the average available days of imported iron ore inventory for steel mills was 21 days, an increase of 1 day compared to the previous week. After the holiday consumption, the steel mill inventory has returned to the original level of about 20 - 21 days, and the market has returned to the state of replenishing inventory on demand [46]. 3.3.3 Demand Side - **Production indicators**: As of October 31, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 81.75%, a decrease of 2.96 percentage points compared to the previous week; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 88.61%, a decrease of 1.33 percentage points compared to the previous week; the daily average hot metal output was 2.3636 million tons, a decrease of 35,400 tons compared to the previous week. In October, these indicators continued to decline, and the decline accelerated at the end of the month [47]. - **Steel product data**: The actual weekly output of the five major steel products in the week of October 31 increased by 99,700 tons compared to the previous week, and the consumption volume also increased. However, this data deviated from the hot metal data, and the sustainability of the increase needs to be observed. Considering the cold weather, the demand for construction steel may be suppressed [55][58]. 3.3.4 Steel Enterprise Profitability - **Profit rate**: As of the week of October 31, the profitability rate of 247 steel enterprises was 45.02%, a decrease of 2.6 percentage points compared to the previous week, and more than half of the sample enterprises were in a loss state [64]. - **Tons of steel profit**: In October, the average profits of rebar blast furnace, hot - rolled coil, cold - rolled coil, and rebar electric furnace decreased by 64.79, 106.93, 69.52, and 13.08 yuan/ton respectively compared to September, and all were in a loss state. The loss of rebar electric furnace was the largest, but there were signs of stabilization recently [64]. 3.4 Market Outlook - **Supply**: The shipments from Australia and Brazil have rebounded, and the arrival volume has increased after two weeks of low levels. It is expected that the shipment volume will remain at a relatively high level, and the arrival volume in November will fluctuate at a relatively high level. The first - ship iron ore from Simandou in Guinea is expected to be shipped in November, which may suppress the price of far - month iron ore contracts [68]. - **Demand**: The daily average hot metal output continues to decline, mainly due to the continuous narrowing of steel production profits. More than half of the steel enterprises are in a loss state, and it is expected that the hot metal output will continue to decline. The production and demand of the five major steel products have recovered, but the sustainability needs to be observed, and the demand for construction steel may be affected by the cold weather [68]. - **Inventory**: Steel mills are back in the state of replenishing inventory on demand, with the available days of inventory at a relatively low level of 20 - 21 days. The port inventory has continued to accumulate and is expected to continue to accumulate slightly [68]. - **Market strategy**: The overall fundamentals are relatively weak, and the iron ore price is expected to be weak. The current iron ore futures price lacks a clear trading logic and fluctuates within the previous range. One can observe the improvement of steel enterprises' profits and the support level of the lower limit of the previous range. Considering the low rebar - iron ore ratio, one can consider the arbitrage strategy of "going long on rebar and short on iron ore" [69].