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大行报告|法兴银行:多重力量推升金价创新高,中国需求或将为现货黄金提供数年支撑
智通财经网· 2025-09-24 13:00
Group 1: Core Drivers of Gold Price Increase - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut has opened up liquidity, acting as a key catalyst for the recent surge in gold prices, alleviating previous pressure from interest rates and encouraging investment in safe-haven assets like gold [2] - Global central bank gold purchases have returned to normal levels, with a total demand of 63 tons, reinforcing bullish market sentiment and restoring the UK's gold export levels, particularly towards China [3] - Resilience in investment holdings is evident, with hedge funds maintaining a balanced position in gold, and ETF holdings increasing by 204 tons despite a significant drop in economic policy uncertainty [4] Group 2: Long-term Support from China - China's gold reserves are relatively low, accounting for only 8.6% of its total foreign exchange reserves, indicating significant room for optimization, with a potential target of increasing gold reserves to 20% requiring an additional 3,036 tons [5] - The pace of China's gold purchases is gradual, averaging 33 tons per month, suggesting a controlled impact on the market, with a projected timeline of nearly 8 years to fill the reserve gap [6] - China's consistent gold purchasing behavior is expected to provide long-term support for gold prices, especially amid ongoing global geopolitical uncertainties and accommodative monetary policies from major economies [8]