Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the need for a balanced asset allocation strategy among stocks, bonds, and gold in the context of the 2025 global capital market, which is characterized by significant differentiation and changing dynamics [1] Group 1: Stock Investment - Investors are advised to focus on Hong Kong stocks with core competitive advantages, particularly in digital infrastructure, smart city solutions, and electric vehicle charging networks [1] - Specific companies highlighted include those with a 37% year-on-year revenue growth in smart city solutions and strategic breakthroughs in electric vehicle charging networks [1] - Other notable sectors include biopharmaceutical innovation and metaverse application development, which have established differentiated competitive advantages [1] Group 2: Bond Market - The bond market is experiencing a divergence between government bonds and corporate credit bonds, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield stabilizing around 3.8% and investment-grade corporate bond spreads narrowing to 150 basis points [1] - Green bonds issued by certain companies received oversubscription due to carbon neutrality certification, while convertible bonds are favored by hedge funds due to their conversion premium advantages [1] - A "barbell strategy" is recommended for bond portfolio allocation, focusing on high-rated short-duration bonds and inflation-protected securities (TIPS) [1] Group 3: Gold as an Asset - Gold is undergoing a repositioning as a traditional safe-haven asset, with physical gold ETF holdings reaching record highs, although digital currencies are increasingly seen as alternatives [1] - The current price of London gold is around $1,950 per ounce, reflecting a 12% decline from its 2024 peak [1] - Investment strategies include indirect exposure through gold mining stocks or structured products linked to gold prices to capture rebound opportunities while managing volatility risks [1] Group 4: Investment Portfolio Construction - The Morningstar Q2 2025 report suggests a "433" allocation strategy: 40% in stocks, 30% in bonds, and 30% in alternative assets, including gold ETFs and commodity funds [1] - This allocation considers the growth potential of certain growth stocks while providing yield protection through high-yield bonds and hedging tail risks with precious metal derivatives [1] - As the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction nears its end, investors are encouraged to monitor interest-sensitive assets, credit spread indices, and volatility indicators for dynamic asset allocation adjustments [1]

行情回顾： 国际黄金周二（8月12日）触底反弹维持震荡，开盘价3349.37美元/盎司，最高价3359.25美元/盎司，最低价 3331.08美元/盎司，收盘价3349.80美元/盎司。 消息面： 白宫发言人莱维特周二表示，美国总统特朗普正考虑起诉美联储主席鲍威尔，因鲍威尔对美联储华盛顿总部装 修的管理问题。特朗普总统早些时候在社交媒体上发表帖子提及这一潜在举措，加剧了特朗普对鲍威尔降息的 持续压力。 美国财长贝森特表示，美联储应考虑在9月降息50个基点。如果数据准确，美联储可能在6月份就降息。 美联储施密德：关税对通胀的影响有限，这是维持政策不变的理由，而不是降息的机会，看不到未来几个月内 关税对价格的影响。支持在改变美联储的政策利率方面抱以"耐心的态度"。政策具有一定限制性，但不是很具 限制性。政策利率离中性不远，通胀仍然太高。 据华尔街日报报道，美联储巴尔金表示，当前有诸多迹象表明，中低收入消费者比几年前更加捉襟见肘，这可 能抑制其消费支出，从而减轻关税对通胀的推升作用。"那种认为（关税）成本必然转嫁导致通胀飙升的理 论，必须经过消费者反应这一关的检验，"他表示，"我认为消费者会接受某些刚需商品的价格上 ...

【市场要闻速递】 新西兰总理克里斯托弗·拉克森近日公开表示，新西兰可能难以说服美国降低对其商品加征的关税。美 国政府在8月1日出人意料地将新西兰进口商品的关税从原先预告的10%上调至15%，这一调整不仅令新 西兰政府措手不及，还使新西兰产品面临比澳大利亚、英国等竞争对手（均维持10%关税）更高的贸易 壁垒。 全球最大黄金etf--iSharesSilverTrust持仓报告显示，8月8日黄金etf持有量为959.64吨，较上一交易日增加 0.55吨。周五(8月8日)截止收盘，现货黄金报3398.61美元/盎司，涨幅0.08%，日内最高上探至3408.02美 元/盎司，最低触3378.80美元/盎司。 ...

黄金的永恒魅力 阳光透过玻璃窗洒在书桌上，一枚小小的金豆在光线下闪烁着温暖的光芒。这让我想起小时候祖母从红木匣子里 取出金饰时，全家围坐在一起的温馨场景。黄金，自古以来就是财富与情感的载体，它见证了无数家庭的悲欢离 合，也承载着人们对未来的期许。如今，黄金投资已不再是遥不可及的贵族游戏，而是普通人也能参与的财富保 值方式 小金豆：积少成多的理财智慧 无论是作为传家宝的金条，还是日常佩戴的手链，亦或是积少成多的金豆，黄金始终以其独特的价值魅力，在变 幻莫测的经济浪潮中，为人们提供一方安稳的港湾。 财富金条：稳健投资的基石 20克规格的水贝黄金9999银行财富投资金条，是黄金投资中的"硬通货"。采用AU9999足金标准，纯度高达 99.99%，每一克都经过严格检测，配有权威证书，确保品质无忧。这种金条设计简约大气，边缘光滑无毛刺，既 可放入保险箱作为长期投资，也能在特殊节日作为高端礼物赠予重要的人。相比其他投资方式，实物黄金具有抗 通胀、避险保值的特性，尤其适合追求稳健收益的投资者。金条背面通常印有编号和品牌标识，增加了收藏价值 和辨识度 马鞭手链：时尚与价值的完美结合 福韵礼水贝黄金三马鞭足金999手链采用传统 ...

2025年7月25日 黄金行情分析 近期影响黄金涨跌的基本面美国总统罕见造访美联储总部，与主席鲍威尔就总部翻修项目的成本问题正面交 锋。其指出，项目预算已飙升至31亿美元，而鲍威尔则反驳称该数据不准确，双方在媒体面前公开分歧，而 一个国家总统如此关注一个大楼大装修，主要目的还是逼迫美联储主席能尽快降息，关税方面上周日本妥 协，美国将对日本商品征收15%的关税，而日本则承诺向美国投资5500亿美元。地缘局势方面柬埔寨与泰国 边境地区发生激烈冲突，局势急剧升级。泰国方面表示，冲突已至少造成该国33人死亡、28人受伤。香港第 一金市场部负责人陈生：PPLDYJ认为这种冲突主要因素除了高层对抗之外，主要还是划界不清引起的，冲 突扩大化的机会不大。 四小时线也是到了双重底的形态，k线两次抵达3323美元/盎司附近，都是能够强势拉升，这次市场再一次验 证有效，底部大阳线拉升，明显的多头稳住了，k线也是必然要奔着均线去，均线向下运行出现明显的放 缓，按下暂停键了，今天多头也是看反弹，但不排除现货黄金走势在本周现有回落在重新创深V走势的形 态，因此在策略建议上，不马虎直接买入黄金。 同时米国老特对冲泰柬冲突表示，不停火就不谈 ...

Core Insights - Central banks are increasingly purchasing gold directly from local mines using local currencies, reflecting a growing appetite for gold among global central banks [1][2] - A recent survey by the World Gold Council indicates that 19 out of 36 surveyed central banks are currently buying gold directly from domestic small-scale miners, with four more considering this approach [1] - The trend is particularly notable in Africa and Latin America, with countries like Ghana and Tanzania implementing policies to ensure a portion of gold production is sold to their central banks [1] Group 1 - The World Gold Council highlights that central banks are turning to local gold purchases for multiple benefits, including lower prices, support for local mining industries, and the ability to increase gold reserves without depleting foreign exchange reserves [1] - In May, global central banks net bought 20 tons of gold, with 95% of central bank officials expecting an increase in their official gold reserves, up from 81% the previous year [2] - A record high of 43% of central bank officials plan to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months, indicating a strong bullish sentiment towards gold [2] Group 2 - The shift towards local gold purchases is attributed to rising gold prices and its safe-haven characteristics, prompting gold-producing countries' central banks to buy domestic gold [2] - The recent surge in silver prices, with New York silver futures rising significantly, also reflects broader trends in precious metals markets [2]

Group 1 - As of July 14, the largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, maintained a holding of 947.64 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day [2] - On July 14, spot gold prices peaked at $3375.04 per ounce before falling to a low of $3340.95, closing at $3343.34, down $11.83 or 0.35% [2] - The announcement by U.S. President Trump regarding a 30% tariff on products from Mexico and the EU starting August 1, 2025, has heightened market anxiety, leading to a temporary surge in gold prices [2] Group 2 - Despite the ongoing tariff situation, market panic has subsided, with investors betting on a new trade agreement by August 1, which has suppressed the demand for safe-haven gold [3] - The market is currently focused on the U.S. CPI data, with expectations that inflation data could impact the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in September [3] - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices have potential upward movement, with key resistance levels at $3377, $3400, and $3440, while critical support levels are at $3340, $3325, and $3297 [3]

Group 1 - The gold market has shown significant activity entering 2025, with London and Shanghai gold indices rising by 26.75% and 25.82% respectively since the beginning of the year [2] - In July, gold prices experienced increased volatility, with spot gold dropping below $3,300 per ounce on July 9, reflecting a daily decline of over 1% due to multiple factors including new tariffs announced by Trump and a strong rebound in the dollar index [2][3] - The dual effects of the trade war have created uncertainty in the market, leading to a decrease in risk appetite and providing some support for gold prices despite the overall bearish sentiment [3] Group 2 - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are attributed to three main factors: the impact of the trade war, the strengthening dollar and rising U.S. bond yields, and the restrained purchasing behavior of central banks [5][6] - Central banks globally have shown a decrease in gold purchasing activity, with a net purchase of 20 tons in May, and China's gold reserves increasing slightly to 73.9 million ounces [5][6] - Despite the current reduction in central bank purchases, a long-term perspective suggests that central banks may increase their gold holdings, with 95% of surveyed central banks indicating plans to continue or increase gold purchases in the next 12 months [8] Group 3 - The ongoing U.S. trade tensions and rising debt levels are expected to drive central banks towards diversifying their reserves away from the dollar and increasing gold purchases, potentially leading to significant price increases for gold [9][10] - Analysts predict that gold prices could reach $3,400 per ounce in the next three months, with a potential range of $3,100 to $3,500 per ounce in the third quarter [10] - The shift in gold's role from a decorative asset to a financial asset is evident, with investment demand surging and jewelry demand declining, indicating a structural change in the gold market [11] Group 4 - Future growth in gold investment is anticipated through enhanced investor education, a comprehensive product system, and improved professional services in the gold investment sector [12] - The current gold bull market is driven by a combination of "dollar credit cracks" and the rise of Eastern powers, suggesting that the market has not yet reached its peak [12]

Market Overview - The recent gold market is characterized by a complex interplay of "policy suppression" and "geopolitical support" [1] - COMEX gold futures net long positions have dropped to the lowest level in nearly four quarters, indicating a potential contrarian investment signal [1] - Current gold prices are fluctuating between $3250 and $3300, influenced by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations and the volatile situation in the Middle East [1] Technical Analysis - Technical indicators show that the RSI is oscillating within the 30-70 range, and the MACD lines are converging, suggesting a balance of bullish and bearish forces [3] - Aggressive investors are advised to short at $3290-$3300 with a target of $3265-$3250, while conservative investors should consider long positions if prices stabilize around $3250-$3260 with an RSI above 30 [4] Fundamental Variables - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September has risen to 65%, but a de-escalation in the Middle East may suppress safe-haven demand [4] - Key factors to monitor include July's non-farm payroll data and developments regarding Iran's nuclear facilities, which could disrupt the current market balance [4] Platform Selection - Traditional gold investment faces three main challenges: high storage costs, poor liquidity, and lack of transparency [5] - Gold Sheng Precious Metals, a member of the Hong Kong Gold Exchange, has developed a differentiated competitive edge through technological innovation [5] - The "spread compensation plan" reduces trading costs by 30%, with spreads as low as $0.15 per ounce during market volatility [5] - The MT4/MT5 platforms ensure millisecond-level order execution, maintaining a slippage rate below 0.5% even during significant price fluctuations [5] - Each trade generates a unique "transaction code" for real-time tracking, ensuring compliance and security for client funds [5] Service Offerings - The platform connects to eight top data sources, ensuring synchronized quotes across major markets, with an annualized arbitrage return potential of 15%-25% [6] - A dual-mode investment option allows investors to convert virtual holdings into physical gold bars, providing a tangible asset during market corrections [6] - A three-dimensional model for extreme market conditions significantly reduces the risk of client liquidation during sharp price declines [7] Trend Outlook - Despite Citigroup's bearish outlook for gold prices in 2026, global central bank gold purchases are projected to reach 850 tons in 2025, a 22% year-on-year increase [8] - The trend of "de-dollarization" is providing solid support for gold prices, with China's official gold reserves increasing for eight consecutive months [8] - Gold Sheng Precious Metals is positioned as a reliable partner for investors navigating market cycles, leveraging its compliance, fund segregation, and rapid withdrawal services [8]

Core Insights - The recent surge in gold selling, exemplified by a case where an individual sold 8 kilograms of gold for 6.12 million yuan, has sparked widespread discussion about gold's role as a financial asset rather than just a traditional safe haven [1][2] - The gold price has seen a significant increase, with a 25.7% rise in the first half of the year, marking the largest half-year gain since the second half of 2007, leading many investors to cash out [2][3] - Changing consumer preferences, with younger generations favoring smaller gold products over traditional jewelry, are driving the trend of gold liquidation [2][3] Market Dynamics - The rise in gold prices has prompted many consumers to liquidate their holdings to alleviate financial pressure, especially those who purchased at historical highs [2][3] - The perception of gold as a classic safe-haven asset is evolving, with some investors opting to cash out as geopolitical risks diminish and to diversify their portfolios [2][3] - The expansion of gold recovery channels, including online platforms and transparent pricing, has facilitated the trend of gold liquidation [2][3] Future Outlook - There is a divergence in market predictions regarding gold prices, with some institutions forecasting a decline due to improved global economic prospects, while others, like JPMorgan, predict significant future gains [3] - JPMorgan anticipates that gold prices could reach 6,000 USD per ounce by 2029, suggesting a potential 80% increase from current levels [3]