先进工艺晶圆代工

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中芯国际(688981):国产算力核心引擎,先进工艺蓄势待发
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-08-21 10:29
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [7] Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading domestic wafer foundry, with the explosive demand for domestic AI chips and the trend of localization in edge-side chips expected to drive its performance growth beyond expectations [1][3] Demand and Supply Analysis - Demand Side: The growth in the AI cloud server industry is expected to drive the demand for AI chips. Additionally, domestic cloud manufacturers are increasingly seeking to localize AI chip production, which will further stimulate demand. There is potential for elasticity in advanced process wafer consumption if certain brands experience an upward turning point in sales expectations [3] - Supply Side: Domestic semiconductor equipment is being customized to better fit local process routes, which may lead to an unexpected improvement in wafer foundry yield rates. The long-term trend in the wafer foundry industry is expected to favor larger players, and the company is likely to benefit from the localization of advanced processes and the demand surge in the AI chip sector [3] Driving Factors - The explosive demand for AI chips in both cloud and edge markets is expected to create significant opportunities for advanced process expansion [4] Performance Metrics and Catalysts - Key performance indicators include the shipment pace of domestic AI chips and discrepancies between performance guidance and actual results. Catalysts for growth include orders for key production line equipment, breakthroughs in critical process yields, and accelerated localization in IC design tape-outs [5] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to experience a new phase of revenue and profit elasticity from 2025 to 2027, with expected net profits of 5.352 billion, 6.370 billion, and 7.456 billion respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 44.7%, 19.0%, and 17.0%. The estimated P/B ratios for the same period are 4.5, 4.3, and 4.1, while the P/E ratios are 135.8, 114.1, and 97.5 [6][12]