证 券 研 究 报 告 行业周报 台积电营收创历史新高，T-glass供不 应求 半导体行业周报 投资评级： （ ） 报告日期： 推荐 维持 2026年03月03日 台积电 2025 年营收突破 3.8 万亿新台币（约合人民币 8500 亿 +），创历史新高；2024-2025 年合计获 各国政府补助 1514.22 亿新台币，成为美、日、德、中四大经济体争相用补贴争取的企业，各国通过资金 投入换取芯片产能与供应链安全，为台积电全球建厂提供了重要资金支撑。此外，台积电在全球范围内加速 建厂进度，面对关税威胁与地缘博弈的双重夹击，台积电通过在在中国台湾、美国、日本、中国大陆以及德 国等地区布局产能，巧妙地开启了去风险化进程。对于台积电而言，3nm、2nm甚至未来的1.6nm制程， 已经不再是试验性的技术指标，而是全球科技巨头争相抢购的稀缺资源。 T-glass供不应求，成为制约人工智能硬件的关键因素 随着人工智能芯片封装和基板尺寸的增大，以适应更高的计算能力（采用更多HBM内存和芯片组），支撑 它们的集成电路基板也必须随之增大，但必须谨慎操作，避免翘曲陷阱，因此需要使用低热膨胀系数（CTE） 的玻璃纤维。英伟达 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price raised to $260, indicating a potential upside of 40.6% from the current price of $184.89 [5][16]. Core Insights - The report highlights enhanced visibility for long-term growth, particularly with the upcoming GTC product roadmap, which has led to an upward revision of the target price [2][12]. - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth, with projected revenues of $215.94 billion in 2026, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 65.5% [3][18]. - The management has indicated strong demand visibility for several quarters ahead, particularly in the AI sector, which is expected to drive further revenue growth [9][10]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the fiscal years are as follows: - 2025: $130.50 billion - 2026: $215.94 billion - 2027E: $354.50 billion - 2028E: $455.76 billion - 2029E: $500.56 billion - Year-on-year revenue growth rates are projected at 114.2% for 2025, 65.5% for 2026, and 64.2% for 2027 [3][18]. - Net profit is expected to grow from $74.27 billion in 2025 to $116.99 billion in 2026, with a projected EPS of $4.77 for 2026, reflecting a 59.4% increase [3][18]. - The company maintains a strong gross margin, with a Non-GAAP gross margin forecasted at 75.2% for FY1Q27 [8][12]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The report notes that the top five cloud service providers (CSPs) are expected to exceed $700 billion in capital expenditures for CY26, which is significantly higher than market expectations [9]. - The company is positioned to benefit from a diversified customer base, with non-CSP clients growing faster than cloud vendor revenues, enhancing long-term growth confidence [10][12]. - The upcoming GTC event is anticipated to showcase new products, including CPUs, GPUs, and DPUs, which will help maintain a competitive edge in the market [11][12].

来源：市场资讯 李平 | 作者 平凡 | 编辑 砺石商业评论 | 出品 资本开支飙升、折旧压力以及"存储超期周期"给晶圆代工产业带来的负面影响，成为中芯国际备受投资 者关注的焦点问题。 1 淡季不淡，营收再创新高 前不久，国产晶圆代工龙头中芯国际发布2025年第四季度业绩快报以及2025年全年业绩预告。数据显 示，2025年第四季度，中芯国际实现营业总收入178.13亿元，同比增长11.9%，单季度营收再创历史新 高。同期，公司实现归母净利润12.23亿元，同比增长23.2%。 根据公司此前所给出的业绩指引，中芯国际管理层预计第四季度的收入环比持平至增长2%，毛利率则 介于18%至20%的范围内。从四季度业绩预告数据来看，中芯国际四季度营收环比增长4.5%，明显好于 指引区间（环比增长0-2%）。 2022年之前，智能手机业务一直是中芯国际最大的营收来源。然而，自2022年起，受全球智能手机市场 需求疲软以及华为手机订单下滑等影响，智能手机作为最大单一营收来源的地位开始被消费电子所取 代。在存储芯片持续涨价的大背景下，智能手机业务未来仍将面临到一定压力。 2025年第四季度，中芯电子来自消费电子领域的销售占比 ...

联电（2303）今(25)日举行董事会，决议通过高阶主管人事异动，现任共同总经理王石将升任联电执行长，执行副总经理徐明志则获任命为 总经理暨营运长，并成为董事会成员。现任共同总经理简山杰已获选为集团转投资公司欣兴电子董事长。 联电董事长洪嘉聪表示，这次的人事调整，是为了因应快速变化的产业环境与市场机会，联电持续调整组织架构。他说："这项调整旨在进 一步强化执行力、提升决策效率，同时维持策略的延续性。"洪嘉聪也特别感谢简山杰多年来的领导表达最深的感谢，协助联电度过许多重 大机会与挑战。 联电表示，这项人事异动是为落实公司高阶经理人接班规划，并确保公司持续具备竞争力。 联电于2017年跟进台积电采用双首长制，任命简山杰与王石为共同总经理，两人带领公司进行策略转型，专注于高成长市场的特殊制程技 术。在他们的领导下，联电的获利能力大幅提升，并成为客户信赖的晶圆代工伙伴，公司市值在其任内成长约五倍。 新任徐明志总经理暨营运长，2003年加入联电美国子公司，目前是公司高阶管理团队的核心成员，负责规划联电全球多元据点的营运，并 统筹企业行销、客户工程及业务策略。 ...

Core Viewpoint - TSMC's market capitalization has doubled in just over a year, reaching $2 trillion, driven by strong demand in the AI sector and significant partnerships with major tech companies [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Performance - TSMC's stock price increased by 4.25% to close at $385.75 per share, achieving a market capitalization of $2 trillion [2] - The company reached the $1 trillion market cap milestone in October 2024, becoming the seventh tech company in history to do so [2] Group 2: AI Demand and Partnerships - TSMC is experiencing strong demand signals from AI chip customers, with revenue projections for Q1 expected to be between $34.6 billion and $35.8 billion due to the booming AI industry [3] - Major clients like AMD and NVIDIA are expanding their business, with NVIDIA announcing a strategic partnership with Meta for the deployment of millions of chips [3] - Amazon plans to invest $12 billion in building new data centers in Louisiana to support AI and cloud computing infrastructure [3] Group 3: Industry Outlook - NVIDIA's CEO highlighted the importance of TSMC in the production of their Blackwell and Rubin chips, indicating a potential 100% increase in TSMC's capacity over the next decade [4] - TSMC is leading in advanced process technology, with plans to start mass production of 2nm chips by Q4 2025, while competitors like Intel are struggling with production yields [4] Group 4: Market Concerns - There are concerns about potential over-investment in AI by tech giants, with some industry leaders questioning the sustainability of current AI infrastructure plans [5] - A recent survey indicated that capital expenditures by AI cloud service providers are viewed as a significant credit risk [5] - NVIDIA's upcoming quarterly earnings report is anticipated to provide insights into the ongoing AI demand and market expectations [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hua Hong Semiconductor (1347 HK) with a target price of HKD 120.00, indicating a potential upside of 27.5% from the current price of HKD 94.15 [1][12]. Core Insights - Hua Hong Semiconductor's production capacity is accelerating, particularly at its new factory, which is expected to enhance overall operational efficiency and sales network optimization. The management anticipates that the first phase of the new factory will reach full production within two years [7]. - The company is experiencing strong demand for PMIC and MCU products, driven by AI-related applications, which is positively impacting overall demand for its products [7]. - The financial outlook shows a significant recovery in net profit, projected to reach USD 190 million in 2026, with a substantial increase in earnings per share (EPS) to USD 0.11 [6][9]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for Hua Hong Semiconductor are as follows: USD 2,004 million in 2024, USD 2,402 million in 2025, and USD 2,843 million in 2026, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 18.4% in 2026 [6][13]. - The gross profit margin is expected to improve, with projections of 14.2% in 2026 and 16.2% in 2027 [9][13]. - The company’s capital expenditures are forecasted to decrease to USD 1.81 billion in 2025, with further investments planned for capacity expansion in subsequent years [7][9].

Group 1: Macro Insights - The report discusses how AI deflation and balance sheet reduction could reshape asset pricing logic, emphasizing the uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's future policy direction [1][6][7] - It highlights the potential impact of reducing the Fed's balance sheet on dollar asset prices and the importance of maintaining central bank independence [1][6][7] Group 2: Company Analysis - Huahong Semiconductor (688347.SH) - Huahong is projected to achieve revenues of 183.83 billion, 246.57 billion, and 284.07 billion CNY for 2025-2027, with net profits of 6.74 billion, 7.78 billion, and 11.29 billion CNY respectively [2][12] - The company is positioned as a leader in mature process semiconductor manufacturing, benefiting from the global semiconductor industry's recovery [12][13] - Huahong's expansion plans include the ramp-up of FAB9 and the integration of FAB5, which is expected to enhance future growth potential [12][14] Group 3: Company Analysis - Valiant Bio (9887.HK) - Valiant Bio focuses on three core technology platforms targeting oncology and autoimmune diseases, with significant clinical trials underway [3][16] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 175.0 million, 196.0 million, and 200.8 million HKD, with a projected increase in profitability as clinical data catalysts emerge [3][16][17] Group 4: Company Analysis - Ningbo Huaxiang (002048.SZ) - Ningbo Huaxiang is expected to see net profits of 5.19 billion, 16.10 billion, and 17.56 billion CNY from 2025 to 2027, with a target market value of 402.39 billion CNY by 2026 [4][18] - The company is expanding into the humanoid robot sector and is anticipated to improve profitability following the divestment of European assets [18][19] Group 5: Industry Insights - Hotel and Catering - The report indicates a significant increase in travel and service consumption during the 2026 Spring Festival, with domestic tourism expected to reach 520 million trips, a 3.8% increase year-on-year [25][26] - The catering sector is benefiting from increased customer flow, particularly in first-tier cities, with notable growth in restaurant bookings and sales during the holiday period [26][27] Group 6: Industry Insights - Gas Turbine - The gas turbine industry is experiencing robust demand, with Siemens Energy reporting record order volumes and plans to increase production capacity significantly by 2027 [29][30][31] - Major companies like GE and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries are also reporting substantial order growth, indicating a strong market outlook for gas turbines [30][31][32] Group 7: Industry Insights - Tooling Industry - The report highlights a rapid increase in tungsten carbide prices, benefiting leading domestic tooling companies amid supply constraints and rising demand in high-value sectors [35][36][37] - The Chinese government's export controls on tungsten resources are expected to further enhance the competitive position of domestic tooling manufacturers [35][37]

Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of $660 million in Q4 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 22.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.9%, driven by an increase in wafer shipments and ASP [1] - The gross margin was 13.0%, up 1.6 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to ASP increases and cost reduction efforts, although it decreased by 0.5 percentage points quarter-on-quarter due to rising labor costs [1] - The company expects Q1 2026 revenue to be approximately $650-660 million, with a gross margin forecast of 13-15% [1] Revenue Breakdown - Embedded non-volatile memory revenue reached $180 million in Q4 2025, a year-on-year increase of 31.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12.86%, driven by increased demand for MCU and smart card chips [2] - Standalone non-volatile memory revenue was $57 million, up 22.9% year-on-year, benefiting from memory shortages extending into the NOR sector [2] - Power device sales revenue was $169 million, a 2.4% year-on-year increase, mainly due to rising demand for general MOSFETs [2] - Logic and RF sales revenue reached $80 million, up 19.2% year-on-year, driven by increased demand for CIS [2] - Analog and power management sales revenue was $174 million, showing a year-on-year increase of 40.7% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.49%, with rapid growth in AI-related products [2] Capacity Expansion and Future Projects - The company is actively expanding its capacity, with the second 12-inch production line in Wuxi (FAB9) exceeding initial construction expectations [3] - The FAB9B project is set to begin bidding in January 2026, aiming to build a 12-inch specialty process production line with a monthly capacity of 55,000 wafers, with an estimated contract value of 3.8 billion yuan [3] - The project is scheduled to start construction on February 10, 2026, and is expected to be completed by January 31, 2027 [3] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company are estimated at 17.308 billion yuan, 20.924 billion yuan, and 25.336 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 413 million yuan, 1.284 billion yuan, and 1.544 billion yuan for the same years [3] - The company is positioned as a leading player in the specialty process wafer foundry sector in mainland China, with a strong recommendation for investment [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the AI wave is driving a super cycle, leading to a significant increase in the value of the memory industry, which is expected to reach $551.6 billion by 2026, more than double the value of the foundry industry at $218.7 billion [2] - The memory industry's growth is attributed to supply constraints and soaring prices, which are expected to continue impacting the market [2] Group 2 - The article forecasts that by 2026, over 60% of global shipments of optical transceivers will be 800G or higher, driven by Google's new high-speed interconnect architecture to meet AI's massive computing demands [5] - The global smartphone production is projected to decline by 10% in 2026, with total production expected to drop to approximately 1.135 billion units due to rising memory prices, which may further weaken terminal demand [8][9] - Sharp's Kameyama K2 factory is set to halt operations in August, which may impact Apple's supply of IT panels and electronic paper, as the factory has been a key supplier for Apple [11] - The HBM4 validation is expected to be completed by the second quarter of 2026, with major suppliers like Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron anticipated to form a supply structure for NVIDIA's HBM4 needs [12]

Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, the company achieved a revenue of $659.9 million, marking a historical high with a year-on-year increase of 22.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.9%, driven primarily by increased shipment volumes and ASP growth [4][23][24] - The gross margin stood at 13.0%, up 1.6 percentage points year-on-year, but down 0.5 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, mainly due to rising labor costs [4][23] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was $17.45 million, reflecting a significant year-on-year decline of 169.3% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 32.2% [4][24] Capacity and Utilization - As of Q4 2025, the company had an 8-inch wafer capacity of 486,000 pieces per month, with a utilization rate of 103.8%, down 5.7 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [4][5] - The ASP for 8-inch wafers was $438.1 per piece, showing a slight quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.4% [4][5] Revenue by Product Segments - Embedded non-volatile memory platform revenue reached $180.2 million, up 31.3% year-on-year and 12.9% quarter-on-quarter, driven by increased demand for MCUs and automotive-grade ICs [5][24] - Power devices generated $168.9 million in revenue, a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, primarily driven by general MOSFET products [5][24] - The revenue from analog and power management ICs was $173.8 million, reflecting a robust year-on-year growth of 40.7% [5][24] Guidance and Outlook - For Q1 2026, the company expects revenue to be between $650 million and $660 million, with a year-on-year growth of 21.5% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 0.74% [6][27] - The gross margin is projected to be between 13% and 15%, indicating a positive outlook for ASP driven by 12-inch demand [6][27] Capacity Expansion - The company has successfully completed the first phase of the Fab 9 project, which is expected to contribute an additional 40,000 pieces of 12-inch capacity [6][29] - Fab 9B is scheduled to start construction in March 2026, with plans for equipment installation to begin around October 2026 [6][39] Market Trends and Strategic Insights - The demand for AI-related products is driving growth across multiple technology platforms, particularly in power management and MCU sectors [28][34] - The company maintains a cautious optimism regarding ASP trends, with expectations for further price increases in the 12-inch segment while the 8-inch supply-demand balance remains relatively stable [6][34]