光伏组件价格回升
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晶澳科技(002459):静待组件价格回升带动业绩修复
HTSC· 2025-11-04 04:39
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Buy" with a target price of 16.19 RMB [6]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from a recovery in component prices, which will drive performance improvement. The company has faced pressure on its operating performance due to supply-demand mismatches in the photovoltaic industry [1][4]. - The company has a strong position in the global market for photovoltaic components, with a leading shipment volume in battery components. Despite a significant decline in revenue and net profit in 9M25, the company is optimistic about future growth driven by high-power component production and overseas market expansion [1][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 9M25, the company achieved revenue of 368.09 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 32.27%, and a net loss of 35.53 billion RMB, worsening from the previous year. In Q3 25, revenue was 129.04 billion RMB, down 24.05% year-on-year and 2.48% quarter-on-quarter, with a net loss of 9.73 billion RMB [1][2]. - The gross margin in Q3 25 was -0.88%, slightly improving by 0.07 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, attributed to better shipment structure and cost control [2]. Product and Market Strategy - The company is increasing its focus on high-power products, with the DeepBlue 5.0 component successfully launched and entering a continuous delivery phase. By the end of 2025, one-third of its capacity is expected to undergo technological upgrades [3]. - The company is actively expanding its overseas presence, particularly in Oman, to build a global supply chain and serve high-profit markets [3]. Market Outlook - Short-term demand is under pressure, but there is an expectation for a rebound in component prices, especially in the Middle East and Europe, due to recent price increases in the domestic market [4]. - The company anticipates that market demand will recover in Q2 26, leading to a potential increase in component prices, which will benefit its high-power products significantly [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The revenue forecast for the company's component business has been adjusted downwards for 2025-2027, with expected revenues of 490 billion RMB, 562.5 billion RMB, and 640 billion RMB respectively. The net profit forecast for 2025-2027 has also been revised to -43.80 billion RMB, 16.84 billion RMB, and 31.77 billion RMB [5][11]. - The estimated EPS for 2025-2027 is -1.32 RMB, 0.51 RMB, and 0.96 RMB respectively, with a target price based on a PE ratio of 31.74x for 2026 [5][12].