Summary of Key Points from the Optical Module Market Demand Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference focused on the demand for optical modules, specifically 800G and 1.6T modules, from major cloud service providers and manufacturers in the optical module market. 800G Optical Module Demand - **2024-2026 Demand Forecast**: - 2024: Approximately 8 million units, with Nvidia around 3 million and Google around 2 million [1] - 2025: Demand expected between 18-21 million units, with Nvidia at over 5 million, Google at about 3.5 million, and AWS at around 3 million [1][8] - 2026: Anticipated demand of 30-32 million units, with Meta's demand expected to double to 6 million, and AWS around 5.5 million [1][11] - **Market Expectation Discrepancy**: Some forecasts suggest demand could reach 40 million units in 2026, primarily due to Microsoft's procurement through third-party vendors, complicating order visibility [1][12]. 1.6T Optical Module Demand - **2025 Demand**: Predominantly driven by Nvidia, with a demand of 2.5-3.5 million units, and Google around 200-300 thousand units [2][15] - **2026 Forecast**: Nvidia's demand expected to start at 5 million units, with overall market demand conservatively estimated at 860 thousand units [2][15]. Major Manufacturers' Capacity and Shipment - **Leading Manufacturers' Capacity**: - Xuchuang: Expected capacity of 15 million units, with a utilization rate of 80% [3] - New Yisheng: Capacity expansion to 8-9 million units [3] - Finisar: Anticipated capacity of 10-12 million units post-expansion in 2026 [3] - **Opportunities for Second-Tier Manufacturers**: A demand gap of 10-15 million units is expected, providing opportunities for companies like Huagong, Sols, and Cambridge Technology [3][19]. GPU to Optical Module Ratio - **Ratio Insights**: - Nvidia's ratio is between 1:3 to 1:4.5, while Google and AWS are around 1:4 [4][20] - Meta's ratio is projected to be between 1:12 to 1:14, with discrepancies due to production timing and order placement strategies [4][20][24]. Customer and Supplier Share Distribution - **Meta's Supplier Shares**: - Xuchuang (20%), Finisar (30-40%), New Yisheng (20-30%) [5][26] - **Google's Supplier Shares**: - Xuchuang (70%), Cloud Light (20%), Finisar (10%) [6][27] - **AWS's Supplier Shares**: - New Yisheng (60-70%), Finisar (15%), Xuchuang (20%) [7][27]. Additional Insights - **Cambridge's Supply to Cisco**: Expected to supply 600,000 units in 2025, with potential expansion to 2.5-3 million units in 2026 [14]. - **Market Dynamics**: The demand for optical modules is influenced by the supply chain management of cloud service providers, with a notable reliance on third-party vendors for procurement [12][26]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the optical module market, highlighting demand forecasts, manufacturer capacities, and customer-supplier dynamics.