光热发电/熔盐储能

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方正证券:光热发电/熔盐储能的未来市场空间广阔 度电成本有望进一步向市场化电价靠拢
智通财经网· 2025-08-18 02:21
Core Viewpoint - Tower molten salt energy storage solar thermal power generation has become the most mainstream solar thermal power technology due to its high system efficiency and significant cost reduction potential [1][2] Group 1: Technology Overview - Solar thermal power plants generally consist of a collection system, a heat storage and exchange system, and a heat-power-electricity conversion system [2] - The main structure types of the collection system include tower, trough, linear Fresnel, and dish systems, with the tower structure offering a high concentration ratio and greater cost reduction potential [2] Group 2: Market Development - The transition from demonstration projects to marketization is expected to drive continuous cost reductions in solar thermal power generation [3] - In 2016, China initiated solar thermal power demonstration projects with a fixed electricity price policy of 1.15 yuan/kWh, leading to the construction of seven operational projects [3] - After 2021, central government subsidies for new energy generation were discontinued, promoting a multi-energy complementary model of "solar thermal + photovoltaic/wind power" [3] Group 3: Future Market Potential - The domestic market has over 8 GW of solar thermal projects under construction or planned by the end of 2024, with a conservative estimate of 3 GW/year installation during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, leading to a cumulative investment of 210 billion yuan [4] - Internationally, regions like North Africa, Latin America, the Middle East, and Australia have abundant solar resources, with many domestic companies already involved in overseas solar thermal power station projects [4] Group 4: Cost Trends - The cost per kilowatt-hour (kWh) is expected to continue decreasing due to technological advancements and economies of scale, potentially reaching 0.43 yuan/kWh by 2030 [5] - Current estimates suggest that the cost of electricity from tower solar thermal power plants could drop to between 0.5287 and 0.5312 yuan/kWh by 2026 [5] - One case from the first batch of demonstration projects has already achieved a cost of approximately 0.31 yuan/kWh, indicating significant cost reduction potential [5]