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银泰证券研究所日报-20251216
Yintai Securities· 2025-12-16 02:37
Economic Data Summary - The national industrial added value increased by 4.8% year-on-year in November, while the service production index rose by 4.2%, and the total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 1.3% year-on-year [2] - Fixed asset investment decreased by 2.6% year-on-year from January to November, with manufacturing investment up by 1.9% and real estate development investment down by 15.9% [2] - The urban surveyed unemployment rate remained stable at 5.1% in November [2] Market Performance - The A-share market saw a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.55% and the Shenzhen Component Index down by 1.1%, with total trading volume at 1.773439 trillion yuan, a decrease of 318.767 billion yuan from the previous trading day [4] - Internationally, European stock indices rose while Asian indices fell, with the UK FTSE 100, France's CAC40, and Germany's DAX increasing by 1.06%, 0.7%, and 0.07% respectively [4] Monetary and Credit Conditions - The 10-year government bond yield was at 1.8494%, with a change of +0.86 basis points [5] - In November, total social financing (TSF) grew by 8.5% year-on-year, with new RMB loans amounting to 390 billion yuan, a decrease of 190 billion yuan year-on-year [10] Inflation and Trade - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.5 percentage points to 0.7% year-on-year in November, driven by food prices, particularly vegetables, which surged to 14.5% year-on-year [11] - Exports increased by 5.9% year-on-year in November, with a notable decline in exports to the US, which fell by 29% year-on-year [11] Policy Directions - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized achieving "reasonable" and high-quality GDP growth, focusing on expanding domestic demand and promoting structural reforms [12] - The conference indicated a stable fiscal deficit at 4% of GDP and a continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy, with an emphasis on boosting consumption and stabilizing investment [12]