1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - As of 2025, the global annual ethylene production capacity has exceeded 230 million tons. The ethylene production capacity expansion in the Americas, Middle East, and Europe faces challenges, while Asia will be the core contributor to global ethylene production capacity growth. - Europe, Japan, and South Korea are likely to shut down ethylene production capacity due to high raw material costs, competitive disadvantages under global over - capacity, and regional structural problems. After that, China may become the global core beneficiary and supply mainstay with its multiple advantages [4][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 America: Ethane Cracking Project Commissioning Pace May Slow Significantly - In 2025, the total ethylene production capacity in the Americas reached 60.338 million tons/year, with the United States accounting for 77.74% of the regional capacity at 46.907 million tons/year, being the core contributor to future ethylene production capacity growth in the Americas [10]. - The U.S. ethylene process mainly uses ethane. After three stages of development, the U.S. ethane cracking project will see a significant slowdown in the commissioning pace after 2025, mainly because of the decline in ethane supply growth and weakening ethylene market demand. The high - grade and easily - mined resources in core shale gas production areas are decreasing, the single - well production decline is accelerating, and the overall natural gas production has entered a medium - low growth stage. Also, the ethane recovery ratio is approaching the upper limit, and the ethylene demand growth has slowed down [14][16][20]. 3.2 Middle East: Facing Ethane Resource Constraints - As of 2025, the total ethylene production capacity in the Middle East was 35.67 million tons/year, with Saudi Arabia being the largest producer with a capacity of 17.63 million tons/year, accounting for 49.42%. After 2015, the growth rate of ethylene production capacity in the Middle East slowed significantly due to ethane resource constraints. The supply of NGLs in OPEC countries has decreased, and the ethane recovery ratio is saturated. Ethylene production in the Middle East is showing a trend of heavier raw materials [26][29][31]. 3.3 Europe: High Energy Costs and Weak Demand - As of 2025, the total ethylene production capacity in Europe was about 30.8 million tons/year, with Germany being the largest producer with a capacity of 5.82 million tons/year, accounting for 18.87%. European ethylene production has high costs due to a naphtha - based raw material structure, high energy prices, policy constraints, and industrial layout issues. The demand for ethylene in Europe is weak. Since 2021, the demand has declined significantly, and in 2025, the demand was about 23 million tons with a growth rate of only 1.71% [32][36][37]. 3.4 Asia: Will Contribute the Main Incremental Production Capacity Globally - As of 2025, the total ethylene production capacity in Asia reached about 110 million tons/year, with China being the largest producer with a capacity of about 62 million tons/year, accounting for 56.58%. From 2026 - 2027, Asia will still have a large amount of new ethylene production capacity, and China may be the main contributor. In 2026, China may have 9.11 million tons/year of new production capacity put into operation, with a production capacity growth rate of up to 14.69% [44][48][49]. 3.5 Europe, Japan, and South Korea: Likely to Shut Down Ethylene Production Capacity Concentratedly - The shutdown of ethylene production capacity in Europe, Japan, and South Korea is mainly due to high raw material costs, competitive disadvantages under global over - capacity, and regional structural problems. After the shutdown, China may become the global core beneficiary and supply mainstay due to its leading global ethylene production capacity scale, scale - effect of refining and chemical integration plants, diversified raw material routes, and lower costs compared to the single naphtha route in Europe, Japan, and South Korea [50][52].