%% %% %% %% 联合研究丨行业深度 [Table_Title] "碳"寻新机：石化、化工行业双碳展望 research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2026 年作为"十五五"开局之年，碳排放双控逐步取代能耗双控，成为新的政策考核指挥棒。 石化、化工行业细分子行业与工艺路线众多，碳排放强度分化明显，整体呈现上游油气＜气头 化工＜油头化工＜煤化工的梯度格局。煤化工虽碳排放强度高，但仍具减排潜力，先进能耗企 业有望在双碳约束下形成竞争优势。短期看，预计碳收益或成本影响有限，但在新政策指挥棒 下，新增产能受限信号较为明确，有望促进存量优质资产价值重估；中长期看，碳收益有望增 厚利润，看好高碳排行业（煤化工行业、氯碱等）内低碳排强度资产。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 马太 魏凯 侯彦飞 SAC：S0490516100002 SAC：S0490520080009 SAC：S0490521050002 SFC：BUT911 SFC：BUT964 SFC：BVN517 王呈 徐静 詹林星 SAC：S0490525040004 请阅读最后评级说明 ...

不少朋友私信问，今年的市场主线到底在哪？是追热点还是蹲价值？其实答案就藏在巴菲特的投资逻辑里——找那些能躺赚稳定现金流、不用老砸钱扩产的 公司。而2026年，这个机会正实实在在落在大炼化板块身上。 春节后的A股走得有点意思，科创50、中证500一路突突，大盘价值却蔫蔫的，TMT和中游制造涨得欢，消费金融反倒拖了后腿。 聊价值投资，绕不开巴菲特的"大DCF资产"逻辑，说人话就是：买现金流充沛、资本开支（CAPEX）低的现金奶牛。 图1：1962年巴菲特入股伯克希尔哈撒韦后，尤为偏爱的标杆重仓股 来源：Wind、证券时报、贝特曼、智通财经，截至：2026.2.25 | 序号 | 首次买入时间 | 公司名称 | 代码 | 一级行业 | 二级行业 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 1964 | 美国运通/American Express | AXP.N | से हैं | 非银金融 | | 2 | 1972 | 华盛顿邮报/Washington Post | GHC.N | 可选消费 | 媒体 | | 3 | 1988 | 可口可乐/Coca-Cola | KO ...

| 产品名称 | 单位 | 产量 | 比上年增长(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ર્ | 万吨 | 2215.8 | -0.1 | | 布 | 亿米 | 306.7 | 0.2 | | 化学纤维 | 万吨 | 8701.1 | 4.9 | | 成品糖 | 万吨 | 1621.0 | 9.0 | | 卷烟 | 亿支 | 24703.9 | 0.2 | | 彩色电视机 | 万台 | 20273.9 | -2.6 | | 家用申冰箱 | 万台 | 10924.4 | 1.6 | | 房间空气调节器 | 万台 | 26697.5 | 0.7 | | 粗钢 | 万吨 | 96081.2 | -4.4 | | 钢材[24] | 万吨 | 144612.1 | 3.1 | | 十种有色金属 | 万吨 | 8175.0 | 3.9 | | 其中:精炼铜(电解铜) | 万吨 | 1472.0 | 10.4 | | 原铝(电解铝) | 万吨 | 4501.6 | 2.4 | | 水泥 | 亿吨 | 16.9 | -6.9 | | 硫酸(折100%) | 万吨 | 11081.6 | 4.5 | ...

2026年2月28日，国家统计局发布《中华人民共和国2025年国民经济和社会发展统计公报》。其中， 2025年中国粗钢产量96081.2万吨，同比下降4.4%；钢材产量144612.1万吨，同比增长3.1%。 | 表3 2025年规模以上工业主要产品产量及其增长速度[3] | | --- | | 产品名称 | 单位 | 沖量 | 比上年增长(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | રુો | 万吨 | 2215.8 | -0.1 | | 布 | 亿米 | 306.7 | 0.2 | | 化学纤维 | 万吨 | 8701.1 | 1 0 | | 成品糖 | 万吨 | 1621.0 | 9.0 | | 卷烟 | 亿支 | 24703 9 | 0.2 | | 彩色电视机 | 万台 | 20273.9 | -2.6 | | 家用申永箱 | 万台 | 10924.4 | 1.6 | | 品书感与中心四处 | Fe | 26697 5 | 07 | | 相钢 | 万吨 | 96081 2 | -4.4 | | 钢材(24) | 万吨 | 144612.1 | 3.1 | | 工程信息部品 | 7 ...

| 盗角业务资格:证监许可 2012 31- | 9 国贸易员 | 日博 带 参考 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 发布日期:2026 | 份格号: F0251 % | | | | | | | | | | | 行业板块 | 趋势研判 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | 品种 | 在临近的"两会"政策利好预期的支撑下,股指预计以偏强震荡 | 为主。策略上,股指期货中长线多头建议继续持有。 | | | | | | | 宏观金融 | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行示利率风险,近期关注日 | 国债 | 震荡 | 本央行利率决策。 | | | | | | | | 近期宏观利多推升铜价,但全球铜库存持续累库压制价格,预计 | 震荡 | 第四十 | 短期铜价震荡运行。 | 近期宏观利好提振有色板块,但国内铝库存大幅累库或拖累铝 | | | | | | | | 震荡 | 价,短期铝价震荡运行。 | 国内氧化铝运行产能下降,但库存进一步累库,短期震荡运行。 | 氧化铝 | 震荡 | | ...

1月，日本乙烯产量为43.37万吨，同比下降6.9%。产量下降的另一个原因是1月有一套生产装置进行计 划内检修，而去年同月则无设备检修。 今年1月，三菱化学集团和旭化成宣布，将于2030财年关闭位于冈山县的合资工厂，并将其并入三井化 学位于大阪府的工厂。目前，日本化企计划到2030财年，全国范围内将关闭4套生产线，产能将减少 30%降至440万吨。 中化新网讯 近日，日本石化工业协会公布的统计数据显示，今年1月，日本乙烯生产设备利用率为 75.8%。这是日本乙烯设备利用率连续42个月低于90%这一衡量景气与否的目标值。这也是日本乙烯设 备利用率连续5个月低于70%。 该协会指出，由于亚洲整体乙烯产量的增加，日本国内乙烯设备的利用率已长期处于低位。业内目前正 在讨论整合现有设备以优化产能。 ...

商品资源大时代，下一个战略品种在哪里？20260223 摘要 地缘政治扰动和中国企业出海投资意愿减弱导致全球有色矿产资源供给 刚性，叠加降息周期和全球经济复苏，共同推动有色金属价格上涨。全 球性品种因受益于全球供需关系改善，更具投资价值，尤其是在制造业 和工业企稳复苏的背景下。 电力板块因中国电价竞争力强、全产业链成本较低、电力公司成本控制 和盈利能力优异而值得重点推荐。电解铝行业虽依赖进口矿石，但国内 产能限制约束了供应，出口铝材占比高，通过锁定冶炼环节利润，实现 了上下游双重获利。 化工行业预计 2025 年下半年触底反弹，供需变化将带来价格弹性。中 国化工行业已取得较强低价权，未来将向高端化升级。制冷剂行业受环 保政策配额制影响，企业集中度提高，产品提价增加盈利，预计三美股 份业绩将显著增长。 铬盐市场因生产过程受限，下游应用于民用、军用航空等战略领域，需 求有望增长。硫磺市场因油气回收减少导致供应受限，而电池级硫酸镍 生产增加需求，价格持续上涨，且趋势具有长期性。 Q&A 资源品市场在 2025 年的行情表现如何？有哪些特征和变化？ 2025 年资源品市场表现强劲，尤其是有色金属板块，包括金、银、铜、 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 塑料日报：震荡上行 发布日期：2026年2月24日 【行情分析】 2月24日，齐鲁石化LDPE等检修装置重启开车，塑料开工率上涨至93%左右，目前开工率处于中 性偏高水平。截至2月13日当周，PE下游开工率环比下降13.93个百分点至19.8%，春节假期，下游多 数停工放假，整体PE下游开工率季节性下滑。春节期间石化早库增加48万吨至94万吨，较去年农历 同期低了2万吨，与往年同期基本相当，目前石化库存处于近年同期中性水平。成本端，市场对伊朗 局势感到担忧，加上美国能源信息署数据显示美国原油库存减少901.4万桶，且成品油库存全线下降， 海外原油价格涨幅较大，原油价格上涨。供应上，新增产能50万吨/年的巴斯夫（广东）FDPE和30万 吨/年的裕龙石化LDPE/EVA在2026年1月投产。近期塑料开工率略有上涨。目前市场报价大稳小动，塑 料供需格局改善有限，但化工反内卷仍有预期，关注节后下游复产进度。由于塑料近日有新增产能 投产，开工率较PP高，叠加地膜集中需求尚未开启，继续做缩L-PP价差。 【期现行情】 期货方面： 塑料2605合约减仓震荡上行，最低价6707元/吨，最高价6855元/ ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - After the holiday, A-shares are likely to have a restorative rebound. Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has indicated interest rate risks in the short term. The macro situation during the holiday is favorable for the market, and the prices of various commodities have different trends [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Stock Index**: Before the holiday, the A-share market adjusted significantly due to the rise of risk aversion. During the holiday, the Hong Kong stock market rebounded, and technology sectors such as AI and robotics attracted wide attention. It is expected that A-shares will have a restorative rebound after the holiday [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has indicated interest rate risks in the short term. Attention should be paid to the interest rate decision of the Bank of Japan [1]. Non-ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The macro situation during the holiday is favorable for the market, and the copper price may fluctuate strongly in the short term [1]. - **Aluminum**: The macro situation is mixed, and the aluminum price will fluctuate in the short term. The operating capacity of domestic alumina has decreased, and there are disturbances in the supply of a large alumina enterprise in North China. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long at a low price [1]. - **Zinc**: The negotiation between the United States and Iran has reached a deadlock, which has led to concerns about the supply of Iranian zinc mines and supported the zinc price in the short term. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production of downstream enterprises after the holiday [1]. - **Nickel**: The LME nickel price rose slightly during the holiday. Although the tailings landslide in the Indonesian QMB project has limited actual impact, there are still concerns about nickel ore supply. The nickel price will fluctuate strongly in the short term and is still affected by the resonance of the non-ferrous metal sector. Attention should be paid to changes in Indonesian policies and macro sentiment. In the long term, the high global nickel inventory may still have a suppressing effect. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long at a low price and control risks [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The raw material nickel-iron price remains firm, the spot transaction of stainless steel is weak, the social inventory has increased slightly, and the steel mills' maintenance and production reduction have increased in February. The stainless steel futures will fluctuate strongly. Attention should be paid to the demand recovery after the holiday. It is recommended to go long at a low price in the short term and control risks [1]. - **Tin**: The uncertainty of recent macro events is relatively large. Under the influence of US tariffs and geopolitics, the short-term volatility of the tin price may increase. Although the long-term trend of the tin price remains unchanged, investors are advised to pay attention to risk management and profit protection in the short term [1]. - **Precious Metals**: The judgment of the Supreme Court that the "IEEPA tariff" is illegal and Trump's new tariff policy have intensified market concerns about uncertainty. Coupled with the escalation of the geopolitical tension between the United States and Iran, the demand for hedging has supported the price of precious metals. The macro situation is favorable for platinum, and the balance expectation of palladium may improve, which may further support the palladium price in the short term [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The data of Malaysian palm oil from February 1 to 20 showed a double decline in production and exports. The Malaysian palm oil market rebounded and then faced pressure during the holiday and is expected to fluctuate [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The US soybean oil has risen under the influence of biodiesel and crude oil prices. The domestic soybean oil may open higher but lacks new driving forces for the time being. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Rapeseed**: The ICE rapeseed rose slightly during the holiday and may be affected by US biodiesel and potential domestic import demand. Attention should be paid to the release of the EPA biodiesel policy and the anti-dumping arbitration announcement of Canadian rapeseed in China [1]. - **Cotton**: The domestic new cotton crop has a strong expectation of a bumper harvest, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint cotton. The downstream startup rate remains low, but the inventory of spinning mills is not high, and there is a rigid demand for replenishment. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driving force." Future attention should be paid to the tone of the No. 1 Central Document in the first quarter of next year regarding direct subsidy prices and cotton planting areas, the intention of cotton planting areas next year, weather during the planting period, and the peak demand season from March to April [1]. - **Sugar**: The global sugar market is in surplus, and the domestic new sugar supply is increasing. The short-selling consensus is relatively consistent. If the price continues to fall, there will be strong cost support below, but the short-term fundamentals lack continuous driving forces. Attention should be paid to changes in the capital market [1]. - **Corn**: After the holiday, attention should be paid to the selling pressure of on-the-ground grain in the production areas. However, the quality of Northeast grain is relatively dry this year, and the selling pressure is expected to be limited under the support of the rigid replenishment demand of the middle and lower reaches. In addition, attention should be paid to the release of policy grain and the implementation of import restrictions after the holiday. The overall expectation is to maintain range fluctuations [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: The US tariff policy has changed during the holiday, but the external market fluctuated little, which has limited guidance for the domestic soybean meal market. The Brazilian soybean premium has declined, and the soybean meal market is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to Sino-US trade dynamics and Brazilian selling pressure in the near future [1]. - **Coniferous Pulp**: There is no obvious positive news for coniferous pulp during the Spring Festival. The previous positive factors on the supply side have basically faded. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5200 - 5400 in the short term. Attention should be paid to the port inventory after the holiday [1]. - **Log**: The spot price of logs has risen, the log arrivals in February have decreased, and the external quotation is expected to rise. The futures market has an upward driving force [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Fuel Oil**: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the Middle East geopolitical situation is still uncertain, and the sentiment in the commodity market has cooled down. The short-term supply-demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil [1]. - **Asphalt**: The raw material cost has strong support, the sentiment in the commodity market is changeable, the risk appetite of funds has decreased, the downstream demand has weakened before the holiday, and the basis difference has expanded to the high level of the same period [1]. - **Butadiene**: The cost end of butadiene has strong support, the overseas cracking device capacity has been cleared, which is beneficial to the long-term domestic butadiene export expectation. The profit of private cis-butadiene plants has remained in a loss state recently, and the expectation of maintenance and load reduction has increased. The downstream negative feedback has been gradually realized. The butadiene market is in a state of destocking, and the high inventory of cis-butadiene is still a potential negative factor. Attention should be paid to the inventory reduction of cis-butadiene before the Spring Festival and the trading performance of the butadiene market. The short-term market is expected to fluctuate widely, and the BR still has an upward expectation in the long term [1]. - **PX**: The PX-mixed xylene price difference has narrowed to $150, which is still enough to support PX manufacturers to purchase mixed xylene as raw materials. PX maintains fundamental resilience during the high-level correction, and there are still risks of crude oil prices due to the Iranian geopolitical risk. The downstream PTA industry continues to be strong, and the domestic PTA output in January is expected to reach a new high, and there is no plan to reduce production during the Spring Festival, and there is no new PTA production capacity throughout the year [1]. - **Ethylene**: The production profit rate of naphtha cracking has declined due to the rise in raw material prices. The price difference between ethylene and naphtha has reached $83. Several Korean ethylene producers plan to maintain the operating rate of their cracking devices in February. The ethylene glycol price is waiting at a low level [1]. - **Styrene**: The high inventory of pure benzene has weak import demand, and the price difference between the United States and Asia is $88, which is not enough to open the arbitrage window. The Asian styrene price and economic situation have recovered, mainly driven by supply tightening, unexpected shutdowns in the Middle East, surging export demand, and rising cost ends. The continuous strong export, short-term supply gap caused by domestic maintenance, and speculative buying driven by chemical futures support the firmness of the spot price [1]. - **Methanol**: Methanol is generally affected by the Iranian situation, and the future import is expected to decrease, but the downstream negative feedback is obvious. The leading MTO device has stopped, and some enterprises have reduced production, but the Fude plant restarted on January 25. The Iranian situation has eased, but the risk cannot be completely ruled out. The freight has risen due to the cold air in the inland area, and the inventory pressure of enterprises in the northwest has increased, and they have reduced prices to sell goods [1]. - **PVC**: In 2026, there will be less global production, and the differential electricity price in the northwest region is expected to be implemented, which will force the clearance of PVC production capacity. The future expectation is relatively optimistic, but the current fundamentals are poor, and the export rush has slowed down stage by stage [1]. - **LPG**: The CP price in February has risen, and the purchase in March is still relatively tight. The Middle East geopolitical conflict has cooled down, and the short-term risk premium has declined. The driving logic of the overseas cold wave has gradually slowed down, and the market expectation is weakening. It is expected that the basis will gradually expand. The domestic PDH operating rate has declined, and the profit is expected to recover seasonally. The short-term demand side of LPG is bearish, which suppresses the upward movement of the market. The port inventory has been continuously decreasing, but the domestic civil gas is relatively sufficient, showing a divergence between propane and PG [1]. Shipping - **Container Shipping**: The freight rate peaked and fell before the holiday. Airlines are still cautious about tentative resume flights. Airlines are expected to have a strong willingness to stop the decline and raise prices after the off-season in March [1].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Dongfang Shenghong (000301) for the first time [1]. Core Views - The report highlights that the cyclical turning point has arrived, and Dongfang Shenghong, as a leader in refining and new materials, is poised for growth. The company is expected to benefit from the recovery in the refining product market and the completion of its capital expenditures [8][10]. Summary by Relevant Sections Company Overview - Dongfang Shenghong is a global leader in large-scale refining, with a capacity of 16 million tons per year. The company has developed a comprehensive industrial structure that includes refining, new energy materials, and polyester fibers, leveraging a unique multi-feedstock approach for olefin production [8][15]. Industry Dynamics - The refining industry is undergoing a transformation, with a focus on reducing oil dependency and increasing chemical production. The report notes that the domestic refining sector is expected to consolidate, with larger integrated projects becoming the norm, which will benefit Dongfang Shenghong [33][40]. Financial Performance - The report forecasts that Dongfang Shenghong's revenue will be 126.2 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year decline of 8%, followed by a recovery to 138.5 billion yuan in 2026 and 142.0 billion yuan in 2027. The net profit is expected to turn positive in 2025, reaching 1.4 billion yuan, with significant growth projected in subsequent years [1][72]. Product Segments - The refining segment is expected to maintain a gross margin above 20%, driven by the company's large-scale and efficient refining operations. The polyester segment, with a capacity of 3.6 million tons per year, is also projected to benefit from industry-wide production cuts aimed at stabilizing prices [36][71]. Capital Expenditure and Growth Prospects - The company is nearing the end of its capital expenditure phase, with most of its facilities already operational. This is expected to lead to improved operational efficiency and profitability as market conditions stabilize [8][10]. Competitive Advantages - Dongfang Shenghong's integrated supply chain and diverse feedstock sources provide it with a competitive edge in cost control and risk management. The company is also focusing on expanding its new materials product lines, which are expected to contribute significantly to future revenue [28][65].