全球产出和资本循环

Search documents
产业经济周观点:中特估的特殊性源自全球格局的变化,并将长期演绎-20250706
Huafu Securities· 2025-07-06 13:26
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the special valuation system in China is a response to the breakdown of the original global output and capital circulation, reflecting a long-term change in economic development models [2][21] - Recent trends show that U.S. manufacturing capital expenditure continues to slow down, leading to a potential stagnation in the capacity cycle, while the employment situation in the manufacturing sector is deteriorating [2][7] - Short-term fiscal support from China is expected, with mid-term exports likely to exceed expectations, and long-term consumption is anticipated to continue its recovery [2][8] Group 2 - The report highlights that the spread of dividends towards low price-to-book (PB) ratios is a sign of rising market risk appetite, indicating a waiting period for economic recovery [2][21] - The long-term trend of rising return on equity (ROE) suggests a revaluation of Chinese assets, with large-cap stocks trading at a premium and small-cap stocks at a discount as a result of the economic development model [2][21] - The report expresses optimism towards core asset styles, including low PB industries, large financials, and sectors such as gold, energy, and non-ferrous metals, while also advising caution regarding micro-cap risks [2]