引言：破7之后，强势新高 01 近期，人民币汇率市场迎来了一场久违的"狂欢"。2026年2月26日，在岸人民币兑美元16:30收盘报6.8397，较上一交易日上涨275个基点；离岸市场更是接 连突破关键阻力位。回望2025年，人民币对美元累计升值约4%，而进入2026年，这一势头不仅未减，反而在开年短短两个月内展现出惊人的爆发力。 这并非简单的数字游戏，而是一场涉及全球资本流动、国内产业格局重塑的深刻变革。市场不禁要问：这波升值的动力究竟从何而来？哪些行业正在成为 这场"财富重分配"中的最大赢家？对于普通投资者而言，又该如何在这一轮汇率波动中寻找确定性？ 02 四重奏：解码人民币升值的核心驱动力 要理解本轮人民币的强势表现，不能仅停留在表面的供需关系，而需深入剖析其背后的四股核心推力——美元走弱、资产重估、结汇洪峰与政策引导。 1. 美元霸权的阶段性退潮本轮升值最直接的外部推手，无疑是美元指数的持续走弱。2025年，美元指数累计下跌约9.7%，创下近年来最差表现。这一颓 势源于多重因素：美国经济数据的相对疲软、市场对美联储降息周期的强烈预期，以及全球范围内"去美元化"浪潮的暗流涌动。 随着美联储主席人选的 更 ...

人民币已经持续升值将近一年了，这种趋势会一直延续下去吗？对老百姓有哪些影响？ 被"且战且退"的美元坑惨了 我们得把时钟拨回2025年。那时候，市场弥漫着一种诡异的焦虑，美国人挥舞着关税大棒，甚至把综合 关税税率干到了100%以上。按照教科书的逻辑，这该是我们最难受的时候。 但谁能想到，先倒下的竟然是美元自己？ 这是一场典型的"回旋镖"惨案。 白宫在那边疯狂加税，试图锁死中国的出口，但这招不仅没能把我们的顺差打下来，反而因为财政赤字 的无底洞和美联储在加息降息之间的反复横跳，把全球资本对美元的信仰砸出了裂痕。 看看那个惨不忍睹的美元指数吧，从高位的109一路俯冲跌破97。一年时间，美元指数暴跌了近11%。 这是什么概念？这是自2003年以来，美元表现最差的一年。 如果说美元的疲软是外因，那国内企业主们心态的崩塌就是这一轮升值的核心内燃机。 在过去很长一段时间里，我们的出口企业都像守财奴一样攥着美元不撒手。那时候大家赌的是"还会 跌"，手里拿着美元似乎就是拿着一张通往更富裕未来的船票。哪怕去年前11个月贸易顺差已经突破1万 亿，市场上依然静悄悄的。 这种沉寂在去年12月被彻底打破了。 当在岸人民币一举升破7.0这 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the optimistic outlook of foreign investment banks towards China's economy in 2026, suggesting a favorable environment for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks due to policy support, improving corporate profits, and capital inflows [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The A-share market is expected to exhibit a "N" shaped trend in 2026, with a continuation of the upward trend from late last year into the Spring Festival [2] - External liquidity easing may be nearing its end, and while the AI industry shows medium-term promise, short-term discrepancies between reality and expectations may impact the market [2] - Despite potential market fluctuations in the second quarter, the upward trend of the A-share market is likely to remain intact due to the ongoing recovery of domestic demand [2] Group 2: Key Focus Areas - Investors should pay attention to the development of the AI industry, particularly innovations in AI applications, as this is crucial for the A-share market in 2026 [3] - Marginal improvements in China's macroeconomy, including real estate and consumption, are also significant, with indicators showing positive trends [3] - The relationship between global re-inflation and liquidity is important, as the global inflation cycle is ahead of China's, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions will be key indicators to watch [3] Group 3: Capital Inflows - The overall upward trend in the market since the "924" rally has created a profit-making effect, attracting more capital recognition towards A-shares due to China's competitive advantages and economic resilience [3] - There is a clear trend of incremental capital inflows into A-shares, with both domestic and foreign investors viewing opportunities as outweighing risks [3] Group 4: Currency and Asset Revaluation - The trend of RMB appreciation is expected to be sustained, positively impacting the capital market [4] - The expectation of RMB appreciation may lead to a return of funds previously allocated to global assets, contributing to a potential "Asset Revaluation 2.0" in China [5] Group 5: Investment Opportunities - Investment opportunities are concentrated in three areas: the AI industry, particularly infrastructure and hardware; cyclical sectors with ongoing commodity price increases; and the pharmaceutical sector, which may benefit from AI advancements [6] - The technology sector is highlighted as requiring careful selection for investment, with significant opportunities anticipated in technology, cyclical sectors, real estate, and certain consumer segments [6]

2026年2月14日，国际金价上演了一场惊心动魄的"深V"反转。 盘中一度跌至4877.75美元，随后却像被一只无形的手托起，强势反弹至5040美元以上， 单日涨幅超过2.47%，日内波动超过160美元。 这并非孤立事件，是2026年初以来黄金市场"过山车"行情的缩影。 就在几周前的1月29日，伦敦金现货价 格刚刚创下5598.75美元的历史巅峰，随后便遭遇了40年来最大的单日跌幅，短短几天内从高点跳水超过1100美元。 市场在狂热与恐慌之间剧烈摇摆， 回收黄金的柜台前排起长队，另一边，购买金饰的消费者同样络绎不绝，形成了"回收热"与"抢购热"并存的独特景象。 这场巨震的导火索清晰而猛烈。 2月12日至13日，美国公布的1月非农就业数据大幅超出预期，新增13万个就业岗位。 这一数据瞬间浇灭了市场对美联 储即将降息的热情，交易员们将3月降息的概率预期骤降至个位数。 美元指数和美债收益率应声飙升，对于黄金这种不产生利息的资产而言，持有它的 机会成本陡然增加。 与此同时，美股科技股的重挫引发了连锁反应，部分机构为了补充交易保证金，被迫抛售包括黄金在内的流动性较好的资产以换取 现金。 更关键的是，当金价跌破5000美 ...

智通财经APP获悉，东方证券发布研报称，自2025年年底以来，PVC相关个股都有明显上涨，同时PVC 商品价格虽有一定上涨，但更多被解读成为应对26年4月后出口增值税不退税政策的抢出口行情。PVC 作为典型的高能耗产品，与电解铝存在较大的相似性，而过去几年两者的景气度可谓"云泥之别"。但展 望未来，压制PVC景气度的因素已经发生转变，未来PVC资产价值有望迎来重估。 投资建议 东方证券认为，PVC行业相关标的主要包括中泰化学(002092.SZ)、新疆天业(600075.SH)、北元集团 (601568.SH)、鄂尔多斯(600295.SH)、天原股份(002386.SZ)、嘉化能源(600273.SH)、氯碱化工 (600618.SH)、万华化学(600309.SH)。这些企业大都属于PVC行业中竞争力较强的公司。但受到行业景 气度影响，目前这些公司PVC业务的盈利能力都较差，如新疆天业预告2025年全年盈利还处于小幅亏损 状态。如果PVC盈利水平能够达到上文预期，则这些企业的盈利都将得到明显提升。 东方证券主要观点如下： 需求结构是重估驱动力 PVC与电解铝都是典型高能耗产品，电力是最重要的生产要素。在2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the real estate industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the broader market [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights a strategic shift among mainland real estate companies from development to commercial operations, with firms like China Resources Land and Joy City expected to benefit from this transition [9][41]. - The report categorizes real estate companies based on their rental income performance, identifying three distinct groups: those with stable growth, those with slight fluctuations, and those experiencing significant declines [21][34]. Summary by Sections 1. Differences in Commercial and Development Ratios Among Companies - Mainland real estate firms are adopting a "development + commercial" dual-driven model, with companies like New Town Holdings and Longfor Group transitioning towards commercial operations [14]. - Hong Kong-backed firms prefer a purer commercial operation model, focusing on quality over quantity in their projects [14]. 2. Comparison of Commercial Real Estate Operational Efficiency - Hong Kong-backed firms generally have fewer but higher-quality commercial projects, leading to better rental yields and resilience in occupancy rates compared to mainland firms [35]. - China Resources Land leads in shopping center rental efficiency due to its strategic positioning in major cities [35]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on mainland firms that are transitioning to commercial operations, particularly those benefiting from the rollout of commercial real estate REITs, such as China Resources Land and Joy City [41]. - It also recommends defensive stocks with high asset quality and competitive dividend yields, including Swire Properties, Kerry Properties, and Hang Lung Properties [41].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - On January 29, the first batch of commercial real - estate REITs were submitted to the exchange. With policy support, the project progress was rapid. The listing of REITs will drive up the valuation of traditional commercial real - estate, reconstruct the asset pricing logic, and bring value discovery on the asset side. It can also effectively revitalize the stock, relieve risks, and contribute to the long - term stable development of the industry. Additionally, the diversification of REITs' underlying asset types helps with the market - based pricing of infrastructure REITs [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Policy Boosts the First Submission of Commercial Real - estate REITs - On January 29, the first batch of commercial real - estate REITs, namely Huaan Jinjiang Closed - end Commercial Real - estate Securities Investment Fund, Huatai - PineBridge Shanghai Real - estate Closed - end Commercial Real - estate Securities Investment Fund, and CICC Vipshop Closed - end Commercial Real - estate Securities Investment Fund, were submitted to the exchange [5][7]. - REITs policies have promoted the rapid formation of a multi - level market. On the supply side, a multi - level product system including infrastructure REITs, commercial real - estate REITs, and inter - institutional REITs has been formed. On the investment side, various funds such as wealth - management subsidiaries, annuities, and public funds have participated, which is expected to further improve liquidity [8]. - In terms of policy, the issuance process has become more efficient and flexible, entering the normal - stage from the pilot stage. The requirements for the number of pilots and phased scale are no longer emphasized, and the market is given more power to judge future cash flows. State - owned enterprises, local platforms, and private enterprises can use REITs as a regular financing tool. The regulations on REITs expansion have also been significantly adjusted, supporting the transformation of REITs into capital operation platforms [9]. - The scope of underlying assets has expanded from traditional infrastructure to both infrastructure and operating real - estate. Many types of assets such as data centers, AI new computing power, and commercial complexes have been added or clearly allowed, and commercial real - estate forms a separate REITs system [9]. - The restrictions on the use of project recovery funds have been significantly relaxed, making REITs an active business adjustment tool. In terms of investment, the professionalism of REITs pricing, the diversity of participating institutions, and the asset liquidity have all been enhanced [10]. 3.2 Reconstruction of Traditional Asset Logic - Three Benefits of Commercial Real - estate REITs - The listing of REITs will drive up the valuation of traditional commercial real - estate (office buildings, hotels, shopping malls, etc.) and bring about the reconstruction of asset pricing logic. By referring to Huaan Waigaoqiao and Zhangjiang High - tech, during the REITs issuance and listing period, the corresponding targets had significant excess returns compared to the sector [12]. - Commercial real - estate REITs can effectively revitalize the stock, recover funds, relieve risks, and contribute to the long - term stable development of the industry. They enrich the financing channels for the commercial real - estate industry [13]. - The diversification of REITs' underlying asset types helps with the market - based pricing of infrastructure REITs, enabling high - quality underlying assets to stand out and have more fair market pricing and liquidity [13].

在避险情绪与资产重估浪潮的推动下，黄金正在成为全球资本市场最耀眼的资产之一，金价持续刷新纪 录。1月29日，黄金现货、期货价格双双站上5500美元/盎司关口。当日，世界黄金协会发布的报告显 示，2025年全球黄金总需求首次突破5000吨大关，创历史新高；全球黄金需求总值飙升至5550亿美元， 同比增长45%。随着金价屡创新高，市场分歧正在加大。业内人士表示，短期内，情绪驱动下的波动或 将放大；中长期而言，黄金能否继续走高，仍取决于全球风险格局、货币政策走向以及投资需求的持续 性。（证券时报） ...

证券时报记者 许孝如 在避险情绪与资产重估浪潮的推动下，黄金正在成为全球资本市场最耀眼的资产之一，金价持续刷新纪录。1月29 日，黄金现货、期货价格双双站上5500美元/盎司关口。 国际金价上涨传导至终端消费市场，多家黄金珠宝品牌最新公布的境内足金饰品价格普遍突破1700元/克，创历史 新高。 当日，世界黄金协会发布的报告显示，2025年全球黄金总需求首次突破5000吨大关，创历史新高；全球黄金需求 总值飙升至5550亿美元，同比增长45%。 随着金价屡创新高，市场分歧正在加大。业内人士表示，短期内，情绪驱动下的波动或将放大；中长期而言，黄 金能否继续走高，仍取决于全球风险格局、货币政策走向以及投资需求的持续性。 黄金需求创纪录 1月29日，世界黄金协会发布的2025年全年《全球黄金需求趋势报告》显示，2025年全球黄金总需求达5002吨，创 下新高。从结构看，投资需求成为推动2025年全球黄金需求创纪录的核心力量。 报告显示，2025年全球黄金投资需求攀升至2175吨，首次站上2000吨以上的水平。其中，全球黄金ETF全年净增持 801吨，创下历史第二高年度增量。持续的地缘政治风险、全球经济不确定性以及主要 ...

文｜空间秘探 武爽 近期，酒店大宗资产市场成交活跃，上海东锦江希尔顿逸林酒店、杭州滨江宝龙城购物中心及酒店、上 海中港汇铂尔曼酒店、深圳宝安京基华邑酒店等酒店资产成功迎来买家，交易额总计超过45亿元。2026 年开年，这些资产交易传递了哪些信号？ 四处酒店资产卖了45亿元 近期，中国酒店大宗资产市场交易活跃，上海东锦江希尔顿逸林酒店、杭州滨江宝龙城购物中心及酒 店、上海中港汇铂尔曼酒店、深圳宝安京基华邑酒店等四处标志性资产密集达成交易，累计金额超过45 亿元。 这些资产均坐落于上海、杭州、深圳等核心城市的核心区位，禀赋稀缺，价值坚实；然而，受当前市场 周期、卖方特定财务境况或资产自身发展阶段影响，其交易价格呈现出明显的"洼地"特征。这种"黄金 地段"与"价格洼地"并存的独特组合，正成为当下市场中最受资本瞩目的标的。 其中，位于上海浦东陆家嘴商圈的东锦江希尔顿逸林酒店易主备受关注。该酒店拥有850间客房、独特 的双子塔楼结构及外事接待历史，其46层的旋转餐厅更是浦东地区的特色景观，资产稀缺性突出。最 终，招商信诺与利安人寿以约9亿元完成收购，折合每间客房价格约106万元，较上海同类五星级酒店的 市场估值水平有显 ...