专题：财经年会2026：预测与战略暨2025全球财富管理论坛 新浪声明：所有会议实录均为现场速记整理，未经演讲者审阅，新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目 的，并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。 责任编辑：李思阳 专题：财经年会2026：预测与战略暨2025全球财富管理论坛 《财经》年会2026：预测与战略暨2025全球财富管理论坛于2025年12月18-20日在北京举行。中国宏观 经济研究院研究员张燕生谈到全球供应链变革方面时指出，过去40年IT革命推动形成的三大全球生产网 络中，中国已成为全球贸易中心度最高的国家，影响力超越美国、德国。但地缘政治可能催生"两大平 行体系"的脱钩风险，如何实现"挂钩不脱钩、合作不对抗"成为关键。 他提出，新全球化应是基于市场、企业、民间及人工智能技术的开放模式，虽进程缓慢曲折，但符合历 史趋势。"推动签证、航班便利化，促进人员常来常往，才能化敌为友，凝聚反对脱钩的广泛力量。"针 对东亚生产方式易陷入贸易摩擦、老龄少子化的困境，张燕生强调，作为人口、经济、开放规模巨大的 国家，中国推动全球化必须坚持"有饭大家吃"的理念，践行共商共建共享。 《财经》年会2026：预测与战略暨20 ...

Core Insights - The CEO of FedEx, Raj Subramaniam, indicated that global trade and supply chain changes driven by technology and geopolitical risks may persist long-term [1] - A new balance in supply chain dynamics is forming, characterized by increased regional features, and the transformation of the industrial economy will take longer to complete [1] - The impact of former President Trump's tariff policies and the end of exemptions for low-value goods has disrupted the global parcel delivery industry, potentially constraining industry growth in the coming year [1] Company-Specific Insights - FedEx warned in September that it expects to lose $1 billion this year due to trade fluctuations, primarily from reduced cargo volume from China to the U.S., which has been heavily impacted by the trade war [1] - The company has observed an increase in cargo flow from China to Europe, Latin America, and other regions in Asia, prompting adjustments in capacity allocation, including the redeployment of its cargo fleet [1] - FedEx is adjusting its capacity more rapidly than the pace of manufacturing migration, allowing it to capture signals and respond effectively [1] Industry Insights - Peter Voser, Chairman of ABB Group, emphasized that trade disruptions are not merely a result of election cycles but reflect fundamental market changes and a deeper understanding of potential costs [1] - Companies across various industries are increasingly aware that the losses from supply chain disruptions far exceed the costs of maintaining product inventories [1]