Core Insights - The CEO of FedEx, Raj Subramaniam, indicated that global trade and supply chain changes driven by technology and geopolitical risks may persist long-term [1] - A new balance in supply chain dynamics is forming, characterized by increased regional features, and the transformation of the industrial economy will take longer to complete [1] - The impact of former President Trump's tariff policies and the end of exemptions for low-value goods has disrupted the global parcel delivery industry, potentially constraining industry growth in the coming year [1] Company-Specific Insights - FedEx warned in September that it expects to lose $1 billion this year due to trade fluctuations, primarily from reduced cargo volume from China to the U.S., which has been heavily impacted by the trade war [1] - The company has observed an increase in cargo flow from China to Europe, Latin America, and other regions in Asia, prompting adjustments in capacity allocation, including the redeployment of its cargo fleet [1] - FedEx is adjusting its capacity more rapidly than the pace of manufacturing migration, allowing it to capture signals and respond effectively [1] Industry Insights - Peter Voser, Chairman of ABB Group, emphasized that trade disruptions are not merely a result of election cycles but reflect fundamental market changes and a deeper understanding of potential costs [1] - Companies across various industries are increasingly aware that the losses from supply chain disruptions far exceed the costs of maintaining product inventories [1]

新华财经北京8月12日电根据彭博社最新的调查结果，欧洲央行预计将在2025年12月进行最后一次降息 操作，这标志着本轮宽松货币政策周期的结束。相较于之前的预测，经济学家们普遍认为再次降息的时 间表已经推迟了三个月。 调查显示，一旦存款利率降至1.75%，这一水平将会保持九到十个月不变，直至市场需求的回升迫使欧 洲央行重新考虑其货币政策方向。将最终决策推迟至年末，给予了决策者更多时间来评估因美国总统特 朗普引起的贸易波动对经济的影响。 尽管上月欧洲央行维持现有利率不变，但多位决策层官员表示当前没有进一步降息的需求。因此，市场 对于9月降息的预期有所降温，目前仅预计年底前有一次降息的可能性略高于一半。 道明证券的经济学家Julie Ioffe和James Rossiter指出："除非贸易格局的重大变动导致经济数据疲软，否 则欧洲央行不太可能急于再度降息。然而，在面临通胀持续低于目标的风险时，欧洲央行可能会采取措 施以缓冲冲击。" 若欧洲央行在12月未能实施降息，金融市场或将视此为宽松周期正式结束的信号。先前的一项调查表 明，约半数受访者预估决策者可能会连续三次会议（包括7月、9月和10月）不进行降息，这将进一步确 ...

Core Insights - The significant fluctuations in trade are making it more challenging for stakeholders to assess the underlying health of the economy [1] Group 1 - The volatility in trade is a key factor affecting economic visibility [1]