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宁德时代(300750):全球扩产提速,盈利能力保持韧性,维持买入
BOCOM International· 2025-03-18 11:10
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 314.11, indicating a potential upside of 22.7% from the current price of RMB 256.00 [1][10]. Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit from a global expansion in production and maintain resilient profitability, with a strong dividend payout reflecting confidence in its development [1][4]. - The battery industry is entering a replenishment cycle, and as an industry leader, the company is well-positioned to capitalize on this trend [1][4]. - The company's revenue and net profit forecasts for 2024 align with its performance expectations, with a projected revenue of RMB 362 billion and a net profit of RMB 50.7 billion, representing a 15% year-on-year increase [4][12]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2025 are set at RMB 447.2 billion, a 1% increase from previous estimates, with net profit expected to reach RMB 62.9 billion, a 2% increase [3][4]. - The gross profit margin is forecasted to be 25.0% for 2025, down from previous estimates due to accounting policy changes [4][12]. - The company plans to distribute dividends amounting to RMB 253.7 billion in 2024, which is 50% of its net profit, showcasing its strong financial health [4][12]. Production and Market Position - The company is expected to ship a total of 474 GWh of batteries in 2024, a 22% increase year-on-year, with significant contributions from both power and energy storage segments [4]. - The company’s production capacity is projected to reach 676 GWh in 2024, with a capacity utilization rate increasing to 76% from 70% in 2023 [4]. - The establishment of a factory in Hungary is anticipated to enhance local supply capabilities in Europe, despite a temporary decline in overseas revenue due to reduced demand [4][5]. Future Projections - The report includes future revenue and net profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027, with revenues expected to be RMB 489.2 billion and RMB 526.6 billion, respectively, and net profits projected at RMB 68.0 billion and RMB 71.5 billion [4][12]. - The company’s free cash flow is expected to grow steadily, reaching RMB 82.6 billion by 2027 [5].