研究所 底部区间，震荡偏强 ——国信期货有色（镍）周报 2025年10月12日 研究所 目 录 CONTENTS 1 行情回顾 0.00 50,000.00 100,000.00 150,000.00 200,000.00 250,000.00 300,000.00 2020/12/31 2021/02/28 2021/04/30 2021/06/30 2021/08/31 2021/10/31 2021/12/31 2022/02/28 2022/04/30 2022/06/30 2022/08/31 2022/10/31 2022/12/31 2023/02/28 2023/04/30 2023/06/30 2023/08/31 2023/10/31 2023/12/31 2024/02/29 2024/04/30 2024/06/30 2024/08/31 2024/10/31 2024/12/31 2025/02/28 2025/04/30 2025/06/30 2025/08/31 镍期货收盘价(主力合约)(单位：元/吨) 数据来源：WIND 国信期货 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何 ...

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Guoxin Futures Non-ferrous (Nickel) Weekly Report" dated August 31, 2025 [3] Group 2: Core View - The report states that the market is at the bottom range and will continue to fluctuate. The US market anticipates Fed policy easing with over 80% probability of a September rate - cut. In China, macro - policies will continue to exert force. The refined nickel market has a supply surplus, the nickel ore market is calm with ample supply, the nickel sulfate price is weak, and the stainless - steel market has a slightly improved profit and demand expectation but weak reality and slow de - stocking. The expected operating range of the Shanghai nickel main contract is approximately 116,000 to 128,000 yuan/ton, and that of the stainless - steel main contract is about 12,600 to 13,500 yuan/ton [2][36] Group 3: Market Review - This part shows the trend of the main price contracts of the domestic and foreign nickel futures markets through a chart of nickel futures closing prices (main contract) from December 31, 2020, to June 30, 2025, with the price range from 0 to 300,000 yuan/ton [7][8] Group 4: Fundamental Analysis Upstream - It presents the China's nickel ore port inventory through a chart of China's imported nickel ore sand and concentrates from the Philippines on a monthly basis, with the inventory range from 0 to 6 million tons [12][13] Midstream - **Electrolytic nickel price**: A chart shows the price of electrolytic nickel (1, Ni99.90, domestic and imported) from December 31, 2020, to June 30, 2025, with the price range from 0 to 300,000 yuan/ton [15][16] - **Nickel sulfate price**: A chart shows the average price of nickel sulfate in China from December 31, 2020, to June 30, 2025, with the price range from 0 to 70,000 yuan/ton [17][18] - **Ferronickel import volume and price**: Charts show China's monthly ferronickel import volume (ranging from 0 to 1 million tons) and the Fubao price of 8 - 12% ferronickel (ranging from 0 to 1,800 yuan/nickel) from December 31, 2020, to June 30, 2025 [19][20] Downstream - **Stainless - steel price**: A chart shows the closing price of stainless - steel futures (continuous) from 0 to 25,000 yuan/ton [21][22] - **Stainless - steel futures positions**: A chart shows the stainless - steel futures positions from 0 to 400,000 lots [23][24] - **Wuxi stainless - steel inventory**: Charts show the Wuxi stainless - steel inventory and Wuxi 300 - series stainless - steel inventory, both ranging from 0 to 800,000 tons [25][26] - **Power and energy - storage battery production**: Charts show the monthly production of power and energy - storage batteries (ternary materials) and the total monthly production of power and energy - storage batteries in China, both ranging from 0 to 140,000 MWh [28][29] - **New - energy vehicle production**: A chart shows the monthly production of new - energy vehicles in China, ranging from 0 to 140,000 vehicles [30][31] Group 5: Future Outlook - In the US, on August 29, Fed Governor Waller supported a 25 - basis - point rate cut in the September meeting and expected further cuts in the next 3 - 6 months. In China, the Politburo meeting on July 30 stated that macro - policies should continue to exert force. The Shanghai nickel market showed a fluctuating upward trend this week. The refined nickel market has a supply surplus, the nickel ore market is calm with ample supply, the nickel sulfate price is weak, and the stainless - steel market has a slightly improved profit and demand expectation but weak reality and slow de - stocking. The expected operating range of the Shanghai nickel main contract is approximately 116,000 to 128,000 yuan/ton, and that of the stainless - steel main contract is about 12,600 to 13,500 yuan/ton [36]

Core Insights - Ningde Times maintains a leading market position with an increase in net profit margin in the first half of the year [1] - The company achieved battery sales of over 120 GWh in Q1 and nearly 150 GWh in Q2, with year-on-year growth rates exceeding 30% for both quarters [1] - The revenue growth rate for batteries was lower than the sales growth rate, indicating a decline in average selling price during the first half of the year [1] Production and Capacity - The company produced 310 GWh of batteries in the first half of the year, with existing and under-construction capacity at 345 GWh and 235 GWh respectively [1] - The capacity utilization rate reached 89.86% in the first half of the year [1] Financial Projections - The company updated its revenue, gross margin, and net margin assumptions, slightly raising its profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 66.4 billion, 79.9 billion, and 93.1 billion respectively, compared to previous estimates of 66.1 billion, 79.2 billion, and 91.4 billion [1] - Corresponding price-to-earnings ratios for August 8 closing prices are projected at 18.1, 15.0, and 12.9 times for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [1] Market Outlook - Global demand for power and energy storage lithium batteries is expected to continue growing in 2025 [1] - The company is recognized for its technological and cost control advantages as a leading global lithium battery enterprise, with a forward-looking layout in new technology fields such as solid-state batteries [1] - The recommendation for the company remains "strongly recommended" [1]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Insights - The semiconductor sector is expected to continue its optimistic growth trajectory in 2025, driven by AI and domestic substitution efforts [5][17] - The second quarter of 2025 saw a notable increase in the allocation of semiconductor stocks within the electronic sector, with a significant focus on storage and power components [2][5] - The report highlights the strong performance of key companies in the semiconductor space, particularly in the storage segment, where price increases are anticipated [4][5] Summary by Sections 1. Q2 Semiconductor Holdings and Q3 Outlook - In Q2 2025, the A-share electronic industry allocation was 18.67%, maintaining the top position in the market, with a slight increase in the overweight ratio [2][14] - The semiconductor sector accounted for the highest proportion of holdings at 10.47% among various electronic components [2][25] 2. Q3 Downstream Industry Outlook - The report indicates stable growth in consumer electronics, with significant increases in the production of new energy vehicles and industrial applications [3][15] - In June 2025, China's smartphone production reached 108 million units, reflecting an 8.4% year-on-year increase [3][30] - The production of new energy vehicles saw a notable rise, with 1.234 million units produced, marking an 18.8% increase [3][32] 3. Storage Sector Recommendations - Jiangbolong is highlighted as a key player in the storage sector, benefiting from both cyclical and growth factors, with expected price increases in NAND and DDR4 products [4][16] - The company is positioned to leverage domestic substitution in enterprise storage, projecting a 200% year-on-year revenue increase in Q1 2025 [4][16] 4. Overall Market Trends - The semiconductor market is expected to see continued price increases in Q3 2025, particularly in the storage segment, with a focus on performance and efficiency improvements [5][17] - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic substitution and the resilience of key players in the semiconductor industry amid global supply chain challenges [5][17]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong financial performance in the first half of 2025, with significant growth in revenue and net profit, driven by robust demand in the European market for both power and energy storage batteries [1][2]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 178.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.27%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 30.5 billion yuan, up 33.33% year-on-year [1]. - The gross profit margin was 25.0%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.8 percentage points, with operating cash flow reaching 58.7 billion yuan and cash reserves exceeding 350 billion yuan at the end of the period [1]. - For Q2 2025, revenue was 94.2 billion yuan, showing an 8.26% year-on-year increase and an 11.19% quarter-on-quarter increase, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 16.5 billion yuan, up 33.73% year-on-year and 18.33% quarter-on-quarter [1]. Market Demand and Production - The company experienced a significant increase in battery shipments, with nearly 150 GWh shipped in Q2 2025, representing over 30% year-on-year growth [1][2]. - Power battery shipments reached nearly 120 GWh in Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of over 40%, driven by better-than-expected growth in the European market [2]. - Energy storage battery shipments were around 30 GWh, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 20%, primarily due to prior export activities to the U.S. and inventory impacts on revenue recognition [2]. Market Position and Innovations - The company maintained a leading position in the power battery sector, with a global market share of 38.1% from January to May 2025, an increase of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - In the energy storage sector, the company ranked first globally in production from January to June 2025 [2]. - New technologies and products were introduced, including the second-generation Shenxing and the dual-core Xiaoyao, along with a large-capacity energy storage cell and the world's first mass-producible 9MWh energy storage system solution [2]. Infrastructure Development - The company is progressing steadily in building battery swap stations, with over 400 passenger vehicle swap stations completed by the end of July 2025, and plans to establish 1,000 stations by the end of the year [2]. - Approximately 100 heavy-duty truck swap stations have been built, with an estimated 300 more to be constructed [2]. - Collaborations with automotive clients and partnerships with companies like Sinopec, NIO, and Didi are accelerating the development of the battery swap ecosystem [2]. Profit Forecast - The company maintains profit forecasts for 2025-2027, estimating net profits of 65.6 billion, 78.9 billion, and 95.3 billion yuan, respectively, corresponding to A-share P/E ratios of 18, 15, and 13 times [3]. - The leading global market share in lithium batteries and the potential competitive advantage from next-generation products are expected to drive future growth [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - From June 9th to 10th, the China - US economic and trade teams held the first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism in London. They reached a principle agreement on measures to implement the important consensus of the phone call between the two heads of state on June 5th and consolidate the results of the Geneva economic and trade talks, and made new progress in addressing each other's economic and trade concerns. It is expected that China - US economic and trade relations will further improve. In May 2025, China's manufacturing PMI rose by 0.5 percentage points to 49.5%, and it is expected that the PMI in June may further rebound. [36] - This week, Shanghai nickel showed a volatile downward trend. The spot trading of refined nickel has improved, but it is still in a supply - surplus pattern. The market at the mine end has changed little, and the shipment from the Philippines is slow due to rainy weather. The price of nickel sulfate is weak, and salt factories are currently operating at a loss with no obvious improvement in downstream demand. The stainless - steel spot and futures markets are weak, with purchases mainly for immediate needs and steel mills being cautious in raw - material procurement. Although demand has resilience, whether it will improve in the medium - to - long term remains to be verified by further data. The expected operating range of the Shanghai nickel main contract is approximately 116,000 to 128,000 yuan/ton, and that of the stainless - steel main contract is approximately 12,300 to 13,000 yuan/ton. [36] Group 3: Summary by Report Catalog 1. Market Review - The report presents the historical price trend of nickel futures closing prices (main contract) from December 31, 2020, to April 30, 2025, in the form of a graph [8]. 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Upstream - China's Nickel Ore Port Inventory - The report shows the monthly import volume of nickel ore sand and concentrates from the Philippines to China in the form of a graph [13]. 2.2 Midstream - Electrolytic Nickel Price - The report presents the historical price trend of electrolytic nickel (1, Ni99.90, domestic and imported) from a certain period in the form of a graph [16]. 2.3 Midstream - Nickel Sulfate Price - The report shows the average price trend of nickel sulfate in China in the form of a graph [18]. 2.4 Midstream - Monthly Import Volume of Ferronickel and Fubao Price of 8 - 12% Ferronickel - The report presents the monthly import volume of ferronickel into China and the Fubao price of 8 - 12% ferronickel in the form of a graph [20]. 2.5 Downstream - Stainless - Steel Price - The report shows the historical closing price trend of stainless - steel futures (continuous) in the form of a graph [22]. 2.6 Downstream - Stainless - Steel Futures Position - The report presents the historical position volume trend of stainless - steel futures in the form of a graph [24]. 2.7 Downstream - Wuxi Stainless - Steel Inventory - The report shows the inventory trend of Wuxi stainless steel and Wuxi 300 - series stainless steel in the form of a graph [26]. 2.8 Downstream - Power and Energy - Storage Battery Production - The report presents the monthly production volume of power and energy - storage batteries (ternary materials) and the total monthly production volume of power and energy - storage batteries in China in the form of a graph [29]. 2.9 Downstream - New - Energy Vehicle Production - The report shows the monthly production volume of new - energy vehicles in China in the form of a graph [31]. 3. Future Outlook - The report analyzes the impact of China - US economic and trade consultations and China's May PMI data on the market. It also analyzes the current situation of the nickel and stainless - steel industries and gives the expected operating ranges of the Shanghai nickel main contract and the stainless - steel main contract [36].

Report Title - "Bottom Range, Oscillating with an Upward Bias - Guoxin Futures Non - Ferrous (Nickel) Weekly Report" dated May 18, 2025 [2][3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint - After the Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks, the two sides reached a series of important consensuses on tariff adjustments, and China's exports in April showed strong resilience. The Shanghai nickel market showed an oscillating trend this week. The spot trading of refined nickel was stable, the changes in premiums and discounts were small, the mine - end market changed little, the quotes of mines were firm, the price of nickel sulfate was weak, and the salt plants were in a loss state. After the holiday, stainless steel inventory increased, and the demand was mainly for rigid procurement. The demand has resilience, but whether it will improve in the medium and long term remains to be verified by further data. It is expected that the operating range of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is approximately 115,000 to 134,000 yuan/ton, and that of the main contract of stainless steel is approximately 12,700 to 13,500 yuan/ton [36] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - This part shows the historical price trend chart of the main contract of nickel futures from December 31, 2020, to April 30, 2025, with the price range from 0 to 300,000 yuan/ton [8] 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Upstream - China's Nickel Ore Port Inventory - Displays the monthly import volume of nickel ore sand and concentrates from the Philippines, with the data range from 0 to 6 million tons [13] 2.2 Mid - stream - Electrolytic Nickel Price - Presents the price trend chart of electrolytic nickel (1, Ni99.90, domestic and imported) from 0 to 300,000 yuan/ton [16] 2.3 Mid - stream - Nickel Sulfate Price - Shows the average price trend chart of nickel sulfate in China, with the price range from 0 to 70,000 yuan/ton [18] 2.4 Mid - stream - Monthly Import Volume of Ferronickel and Fubao Price of 8 - 12% Ferronickel - Displays the monthly import volume of ferronickel in China from 0 to 1 million tons and the Fubao price of 8 - 12% ferronickel from 0 to 1,800 yuan/nickel [20] 2.5 Downstream - Stainless Steel - **Price**: Displays the closing price trend chart of stainless steel futures (continuous), with the price range from 0 to 25,000 yuan/ton [22] - **Position**: Shows the position volume trend chart of stainless steel futures, with the position volume range from 0 to 400,000 lots [24] - **Inventory**: Displays the inventory trend chart of Wuxi stainless steel and Wuxi 300 - series stainless steel, with the inventory range from 0 to 800,000 tons [26] 2.6 Downstream - Production of Power and Energy Storage Batteries - Shows the monthly production value trend chart of power and energy storage batteries (ternary materials) and the total monthly production value trend chart of power and energy storage batteries in China, with the production value range from 0 to 140,000 MWh [29] 2.7 Downstream - Production of New Energy Vehicles - Displays the monthly production value trend chart of new energy vehicles in China, with the production value range from 0 to 140,000 vehicles [31] 3. Outlook for the Future - After the Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks, tariff adjustments were made. China's exports in April showed strong resilience. The Shanghai nickel market oscillated this week. The spot trading of refined nickel was stable, the mine - end market changed little, the price of nickel sulfate was weak, and stainless steel inventory increased after the holiday. It is expected that the operating range of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is approximately 115,000 to 134,000 yuan/ton, and that of the main contract of stainless steel is approximately 12,700 to 13,500 yuan/ton [36]

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Short-term Impact, Slow Recovery - Guoxin Futures Non-ferrous (Nickel) Weekly Report" dated April 20, 2025 [2][3] Group 2: Table of Contents - The report includes sections on market review, fundamental analysis, and future outlook [4] Group 3: Market Review - This section likely focuses on the historical price trends of nickel futures' main contracts, as indicated by the y - axis of the graph showing nickel futures closing prices (main contract) from 2020 to 2025 [7][8] Group 4: Fundamental Analysis Upstream - The upstream analysis focuses on China's nickel ore port inventory and the monthly import volume of nickel ore sand and concentrates from the Philippines [12][13] Midstream - Midstream analysis covers electrolytic nickel prices, nickel sulfate prices, nickel - iron monthly import volume, and the Fubao price of 8 - 12% nickel - iron [15][17][19] Downstream - Downstream analysis includes stainless - steel prices, stainless - steel futures positions, Wuxi stainless - steel inventory, power and energy - storage battery production, and new - energy vehicle production [21][23][25][28][30] Group 5: Future Outlook Macroeconomic Situation - In the US, Fed Chair Powell said that the announced tariff hikes will push up inflation and suppress economic growth, and the Fed will prioritize inflation control. The market expects the Fed to start cutting interest rates in June, and the Fed won't intervene in the recent sharp fluctuations in the US stock market. In China, the Q1 GDP grew by 5.4% year - on - year, social consumer goods retail sales increased by 4.6% year - on - year, and high - tech manufacturing and IT service industries showed strong growth. Private investment turned positive [36] Nickel Market - The Shanghai nickel futures showed an upward trend this week, a recovery from last week's sharp drop. Spot trading of refined nickel was good this week. With the end of the rainy season in the Philippines, nickel ore supply is abundant, and nickel - iron prices have declined. Nickel sulfate prices are weak, and salt plants are in the red. Stainless - steel export orders have recovered well, but orders for US - bound products are almost at a standstill. The expected operating range for the Shanghai nickel main contract is 115,000 - 134,000 yuan/ton, and for the stainless - steel main contract is 12,400 - 13,600 yuan/ton [36]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 314.11, indicating a potential upside of 22.7% from the current price of RMB 256.00 [1][10]. Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit from a global expansion in production and maintain resilient profitability, with a strong dividend payout reflecting confidence in its development [1][4]. - The battery industry is entering a replenishment cycle, and as an industry leader, the company is well-positioned to capitalize on this trend [1][4]. - The company's revenue and net profit forecasts for 2024 align with its performance expectations, with a projected revenue of RMB 362 billion and a net profit of RMB 50.7 billion, representing a 15% year-on-year increase [4][12]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2025 are set at RMB 447.2 billion, a 1% increase from previous estimates, with net profit expected to reach RMB 62.9 billion, a 2% increase [3][4]. - The gross profit margin is forecasted to be 25.0% for 2025, down from previous estimates due to accounting policy changes [4][12]. - The company plans to distribute dividends amounting to RMB 253.7 billion in 2024, which is 50% of its net profit, showcasing its strong financial health [4][12]. Production and Market Position - The company is expected to ship a total of 474 GWh of batteries in 2024, a 22% increase year-on-year, with significant contributions from both power and energy storage segments [4]. - The company’s production capacity is projected to reach 676 GWh in 2024, with a capacity utilization rate increasing to 76% from 70% in 2023 [4]. - The establishment of a factory in Hungary is anticipated to enhance local supply capabilities in Europe, despite a temporary decline in overseas revenue due to reduced demand [4][5]. Future Projections - The report includes future revenue and net profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027, with revenues expected to be RMB 489.2 billion and RMB 526.6 billion, respectively, and net profits projected at RMB 68.0 billion and RMB 71.5 billion [4][12]. - The company’s free cash flow is expected to grow steadily, reaching RMB 82.6 billion by 2027 [5].

截至3月17日收盘，比亚迪股价上涨1.15%，报380.25元，市值达到1.16万亿元。同期，宁德时代股价下跌2.29%，报256元，市值为1.13万亿 元。 在A股上市公司的市值排行榜中，比亚迪排名第九，宁德时代排名第十一位。以收盘的股价计算，比亚迪已较宁德时代的市值高出约300亿元。 根据Choice数据的统计，这是比亚迪自2018年6月15日以来，市值首次超过宁德时代。 宁德时代为全球锂电池龙头，已连续八年位居全球动力电池装车量榜首，四年蝉联储能电池出货量冠军。动力和储能电池为宁德时代最主要的两 大业务板块，合计占去年营收的85%。 比亚迪是宁德时代在动力和储能电池领域的主要竞争对手。去年，比亚迪全球动力电池出货量仅次于宁德时代，双方的市占率相差约20个百分 点。在储能电池领域，比亚迪位居全球第三，市场份额同样落后宁德时代20余个百分点。 除电池业务外，比亚迪的产品还包括新能源汽车，手机部件及组装和光伏业务，该公司未单独披露电池业务的营收数据。比亚迪去年卖出了427 万辆新能源汽车，同比增幅达到41%，为全球新能源汽车的销售冠军。 宁德时代2018年6月11日在创业板挂牌上市。2017年，比亚迪营收10 ...