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专访刘晨明|外需与AI共推2026牛市行情
Xin Lang Zheng Quan· 2025-12-02 09:09
Core Viewpoint - The future performance of the A-share market is heavily dependent on the substantial improvement of corporate earnings, with a bullish outlook for 2026 supported by positive policies and strong external demand [1] Group 1: Corporate Earnings Outlook - Corporate earnings in the A-share market have stabilized and begun to recover over the past three quarters, ending a previous downward cycle [1] - The overall earnings trend for listed companies in 2024 is expected to improve, providing a solid foundation for a bull market [1] - Key factors driving this improvement include a more positive domestic policy environment and China's competitive advantage in advanced manufacturing [1] Group 2: External Demand Factors - Optimism regarding external demand for 2026 is supported by three main factors: fiscal expansion in major economies, low global inventory levels, and potential U.S. government support for the AI industry [2] - The recovery of external demand is anticipated to significantly bolster A-share earnings, acting as a crucial external support for market stabilization [2] Group 3: Investment Focus Areas - The three key investment areas recommended for 2026 are: - AI Industry: Expected to experience significant growth with no signs of bubble formation, particularly in edge AI products [2] - Copper: Seen as a barometer for global economic health, with strong price performance anticipated due to ongoing recovery in global manufacturing [2] - Battery Industry Chain: Expected to benefit from improved supply-demand dynamics and rising domestic demand for large storage solutions [2]