全球农产品供需

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华安证券:7月USDA下调全球玉米、小麦产量 国内玉米总体呈现供需紧平衡状态
智通财经网· 2025-07-21 09:45
Group 1: Corn Market Insights - The global corn supply-demand gap is widening, with a decreasing global corn stock-to-use ratio, which is favorable for international corn prices [1] - For the 2025/26 season, global corn production is projected at 126.4 million tons, an increase of 38.36 million tons from the previous year, while consumption is expected to reach 127.6 million tons, an increase of 18.95 million tons [2] - The ending stock for corn is forecasted at 27.2 million tons, a decrease of 12.1 million tons year-on-year, with a stock-to-use ratio of 18.5%, the lowest since the 2014/15 season [2] Group 2: Wheat Market Insights - Global wheat production for the 2025/26 season is estimated at 80.9 million tons, an increase of 8.63 million tons from the previous year, while consumption is expected to rise to 81.1 million tons, an increase of 5.14 million tons [3] - The ending stock for wheat is projected at 26.2 million tons, a decrease of 2.07 million tons year-on-year, with a stock-to-use ratio of 25.5%, the lowest since the 2015/16 season [3] Group 3: Soybean Market Insights - For the 2025/26 season, global soybean production is forecasted at 42.8 million tons, an increase of 5.68 million tons from the previous year, while consumption is expected to reach 42.5 million tons, an increase of 16.13 million tons [4] - The ending stock for soybeans is projected at 12.6 million tons, an increase of 0.95 million tons year-on-year, with a stock-to-use ratio of 20.6% [4]