Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - The USDA has raised global corn, wheat, and soybean production forecasts for January 2026, indicating an increase in supply and a tightening of the global supply-demand gap for corn [7][36] - The report highlights that the domestic market is currently active due to the traditional peak selling season for corn, with strong price support expected [7] Summary by Relevant Sections Corn - Global corn production for 2025/26 is forecasted at 1.296 billion tons, an increase of 65.15 million tons from 2024/25, with a month-on-month increase of 13.05 million tons [14] - Global corn consumption is projected at 1.3 billion tons, up 48.21 million tons year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 2.62 million tons [14] - The ending stock for global corn is estimated at 290.91 million tons, a decrease of 3.79 million tons from 2024/25, but an increase of 11.76 million tons month-on-month [14] - The corn stock-to-use ratio is 19.3%, down 1.16 percentage points from 2024/25 but up 0.75 percentage points month-on-month [14] Wheat - Global wheat production for 2025/26 is forecasted at 842.17 million tons, an increase of 41.36 million tons from 2024/25, with a month-on-month increase of 4.36 million tons [36] - Global wheat consumption is projected at 823.91 million tons, up 13.05 million tons year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.94 million tons [36] - The ending stock for global wheat is estimated at 278.25 million tons, an increase of 18.25 million tons from 2024/25, with a month-on-month increase of 3.38 million tons [36] - The wheat stock-to-use ratio is 26.7%, up 1.20 percentage points from 2024/25 and up 0.27 percentage points month-on-month [36] Soybeans - Global soybean production for 2025/26 is forecasted at 426 million tons, a decrease of 1.47 million tons from 2024/25, but with a month-on-month increase of 3.14 million tons [6] - Global soybean consumption is projected at 423 million tons, up 9.63 million tons year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 1.29 million tons [6] - The ending stock for global soybeans is estimated at 124 million tons, an increase of 1.01 million tons from 2024/25, with a month-on-month increase of 2.04 million tons [6] - The soybean stock-to-use ratio is 20.4%, down 0.26 percentage points from 2024/25 but up 0.30 percentage points month-on-month [6]

Sugar Market - Raw sugar prices continue to fluctuate within a range, with Thailand's sugarcane crushing volume for the 25/26 season at 29.26 million tons, down 16.09% from last year [2][15] - The sugar content in sugarcane is 11.95%, slightly up from 11.87% last year, while the sugar production rate is 9.79%, down from 9.81% [2][15] - Domestic sugar prices are quoted at 5260-5360 CNY/ton in Guangxi and 5110-5160 CNY/ton in Yunnan, with import estimates for quota within 4020-4030 CNY/ton and outside quota at 5090-5100 CNY/ton [2][15] Cotton Market - The USDA's January report has reduced global cotton production expectations, with U.S. and Indian production down, while China's production is expected to increase [5][17] - The global cotton production forecast for 2025/26 is 26.003 million tons, a decrease of 78,000 tons from the previous month [5][18] - As of January 15, China's cotton processing volume is 7.128 million tons, an increase of 1.15 million tons year-on-year [5][21] Demand and Retail - Retail sales growth in December slowed, particularly in clothing and textiles, with a year-on-year increase of only 0.6% in clothing and related goods [5][23] - The overall yarn production load was 48.98%, down 0.4 percentage points week-on-week, while cotton yarn factory load was 45.9%, down 0.2 percentage points [5][23] Import and Export - The cotton price difference between domestic and international markets remains high, with cotton and yarn imports reaching recent highs, while clothing exports remain weak [5][24] - In December, China imported 180,000 tons of cotton, an increase of 60,000 tons month-on-month and 40,000 tons year-on-year [5][25] - Clothing and accessory exports in December amounted to $13.412 billion, down 10.19% year-on-year [5][25] Inventory Levels - Commercial cotton inventory in China as of mid-January is 5.8623 million tons, up 77,600 tons month-on-month and 83,300 tons year-on-year [5][26] - The overall inventory of yarn is approximately 32 days, with a slight decrease week-on-week [5][26] International Market Dynamics - The macroeconomic environment is experiencing disturbances, with limited fundamental drivers, leading to a predominantly fluctuating market [5][10] - The USDA's January report indicates a slight improvement in the supply-demand balance for U.S. cotton, but the overall market remains oversupplied [5][27] Domestic Market Focus - The focus is shifting back to fundamentals as the market anticipates the impact of upcoming policies, with cotton production expected to reach a ten-year high [5][28] - The cotton commercial inventory is at a peak for the 2025/26 season, expected to decline after February [5][28]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the significant relationship between global copper inventory levels and copper prices, highlighting the importance of inventory metrics such as the inventory-to-sales ratio, net inventory changes, and cancellation warehouse ratios in understanding price movements [2][10][29]. Group 1: Global Copper Inventory Overview - Global copper inventory is primarily represented by publicly available data from major exchanges, including SMM China social inventory, LME inventory, and COMEX inventory, with LME historically holding the largest share [6][10]. - As of December 26, 2025, COMEX copper inventory reached 438,000 tons, a 417% increase from the beginning of the year, accounting for over 60% of the total inventory across the three major exchanges [6][10]. Group 2: Inventory-to-Sales Ratio and Copper Prices - The inventory-to-sales ratio serves as a key indicator of the balance between inventory and demand, reflecting how long current inventory can support future consumption [11][29]. - A regression analysis indicates that when copper prices are significantly below the regression line (by 15% or 25%), buying opportunities arise, with historical data showing a 100% success rate for purchases held for 12 months when prices are below the regression line by 25% [12][30]. Group 3: Inventory Change and Copper Prices - The net change in inventory is another important indicator, with a decrease suggesting tighter supply and potential price increases, while an increase indicates a looser supply situation [20][23]. - A strategy based on significant inventory changes (over 3%) shows higher success rates for buying when inventory decreases compared to when it increases, with a notable increase in success rates over longer holding periods [23][30]. Group 4: Cancellation Warehouse Ratios and Copper Prices - The cancellation warehouse ratio reflects market demand for inventory extraction, with higher ratios indicating stronger demand and tighter supply conditions [24][27]. - A strategy based on significant changes in cancellation warehouse ratios (over 5%) shows higher success rates for buying when the ratio increases, with positive average returns that improve with longer holding periods [27][28].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, South American soybeans are likely to have a significant yield increase, but the impact of La Niña on southern Brazil and Argentina should be monitored. The inventory - to - sales ratio of US soybeans in the 25/26 season remains at a historically low level, supporting US soybean prices, and there is still room for adjustment in US soybean yield and exports. It is expected that the downward price movement of US soybeans is limited [5]. - On the demand side, the crushing profit of imported soybeans in China is generally in the red, leading oil mills to strengthen their price - holding intentions, which supports the price of soybean meal. The Chinese government is releasing imported soybeans through auctions, and the high transaction prices support the near - month contracts of soybean meal. In the Chinese pig - farming sector, the number of pig slaughterings in 2026 may increase year - on - year, but due to the loss - making situation in farming, the average slaughter weight of pigs is expected to decline year - on - year. In the Chinese poultry sector, the number of major meat - type poultry slaughterings is expected to continue growing in 2026, but the growth rate may slow down. In the Chinese egg - laying hen sector, due to the large inventory base of laying hens, past profitability in farming, and low market enthusiasm for culling, the inventory of laying hens in the first quarter of 2026 is expected to remain at a high level [5]. - Overall, with a high probability of South American soybean yield increase and stable domestic demand, the supply - demand situation is loose. There is no strong driving force for a significant increase in soybean and rapeseed meal prices. It is expected that the prices of soybean and rapeseed meal will mainly fluctuate within a wide range [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Annual Viewpoints and Strategies - Supply - side: In 2026, South American soybeans are likely to increase in production, but attention should be paid to La Niña's influence on southern Brazil and Argentina. The low inventory - to - sales ratio of US soybeans supports prices, and there is potential for adjustment in US soybean yield and exports [5]. - Demand - side: Domestic soybean crushing losses lead to stronger price - holding by oil mills. The government's soybean auctions with high prices support near - month contracts. Pig slaughter volume may increase in 2026, but weight may decline. Meat - type poultry slaughter is expected to grow with a slowdown in the rate. Laying hen inventory is expected to stay high in Q1 2026 [5]. - Overall: With supply - demand balance, soybean and rapeseed meal prices are expected to have wide - range fluctuations [5]. Strategy Views and Outlook - Unilateral: The main contract of soybean meal may fluctuate widely, with a reference range of 2650 - 3000. For options, consider buying put options after price increases [7]. - Arbitrage: Adopt a wait - and - see approach for now [7]. - Outlook: Key factors to watch include the weather in South American soybean - growing areas, the arrival of imported soybeans, domestic demand for soybean meal, and China - Canada and China - US trade relations [7]. International Situation - US Interest Rates: In September 2025, the US unemployment rate was 4.4%, slightly lower than the Fed's expected 4.5% but higher than the long - term target of 4.2%. The number of new non - farm jobs was 119,000, less than the target of 200,000. Due to the lag in CPI data release caused by the government shutdown and the expected decline in core CPI after considering the easing of China - US trade relations, there is a need for the US to cut interest rates in 2026 [10][12][14]. - China - US Trade: After the meeting between Chinese and US leaders in late October 2025, trade relations eased, and China promised to purchase 1.2 billion tons of US soybeans. On November 5, China officially announced retaining a 10% tariff on US goods, so the current tariff rate for importing US soybeans is 13%. Since resuming imports, China has imported about 4 million tons of US soybeans [18]. - China - Canada Trade: On August 12, 2025, China's Ministry of Commerce imposed a 75.8% deposit on Canadian rapeseed imports, leading to a halt in imports in October [20]. Domestic Situation - Domestic Prices: In October 2025, China's CPI increased by 0.2% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 2.1% year - on - year, indicating weak consumer demand [25]. - GDP Growth: In recent years, due to the in - depth adjustment of the domestic real estate market and the severe external environment, China's GDP growth rate has slowed down [29]. Policy - related Expectations - Anti - dumping Investigation on Canadian Rapeseed: The result of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed will be announced before March 9, 2026. The outcome is still uncertain, depending on China - Canada and Canada - US trade relations [34][35]. - State Auction of Imported Soybeans: On December 11, 2025, the National Grain Trading Center auctioned 512,500 tons of imported soybeans (from 2022 and 2023). The trading volume was 397,043 tons, with an average price of 3,935.3 yuan/ton and a trading ratio of 77.5%. The market expects a total of about 4 million tons of imported soybeans to be auctioned, and subsequent auctions need attention [37]. Fundamentals - Futures Price Trends: Since 2025, soybean meal futures prices have risen first, then fallen, and finally fluctuated widely. The price increase in Q1 was due to low imported soybean arrival; the decline in Q2 was due to sufficient supply; in Q4, prices fluctuated weakly with the easing of China - US trade relations [45]. - Feed Futures Contract Spreads: The spread between soybean and rapeseed meal has fluctuated widely and is currently at a historically low level. It is recommended to wait and see [50]. Impact Factors on Supply - La Niña's Impact: The latest Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) is - 0.6, below the - 0.5 threshold. Most models suggest La Niña will persist in the Northern Hemisphere winter. However, NOAA predicts a 61% chance of ENSO turning neutral from January to March 2026, and the impact on South American soybean production is expected to be limited [58]. - US Soybean Inventory - to - Sales Ratio: According to the December USDA report, the inventory - to - sales ratio of US soybeans in the 25/26 season is 6.74%, at a historically low level, which supports US soybean prices and limits the downward price space [60][61]. - Brazilian Soybean Exports: As of early December 2025, Brazilian farmers' soybean sales progress reached 95.17%. Before the new harvest, Brazil's available soybean exports are limited [67]. - South American Soybean Planting: As of December 5, 2025, Brazil's soybean planting rate was 90.3%, and as of December 11, Argentina's soybean planting progress was 58.6%. Overall, the planting progress is normal. Although La Niña needs attention, Brazil's soybean production is likely to increase due to the expanded planting area [71]. Demand - side Factors - Pig Farming: In 2025, the inventory of sows capable of reproduction was at a historically high level, indicating a possible year - on - year increase in pig slaughter in 2026. However, due to losses in farming, the average slaughter weight of pigs is expected to decline year - on - year [76]. - Poultry Farming: In 2025, the inventory of parent - generation white - feather broilers was high, and the supply of chicks in the first quarter of 2026 is expected to keep growing. The number of major meat - type poultry slaughterings is expected to grow, but at a slower rate. The inventory of laying hens in 2025 reached a historical high, and it is expected to remain high in the first quarter of 2026 [78]. Import and Inventory - Soybean Imports: In November 2025, China imported 8.107 million tons of soybeans, a decrease of 1.373 million tons from October and an increase of 953,000 tons (13.32%) from November 2024. From January to November 2025, the cumulative soybean imports were 103.7814 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.6872 million tons (6.89%) [80]. - Rapeseed Imports: In October 2025, China's rapeseed imports were 0 tons. From January to October, the cumulative rapeseed imports were 2.4458 million tons, a 51.8% decrease from the same period last year [84]. - Soybean and Soybean Meal Inventory: As of December 5, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 7.1552 million tons, a 2.51% decrease from the previous week and a 30.80% increase from last year. The domestic oil - mill soybean meal inventory was 1.1619 million tons, a 3.43% decrease from the previous week and a 70.74% increase from last year [89]. - Rapeseed and Rapeseed Meal Inventory: As of December 5, 2025, the coastal oil - mill rapeseed inventory was 0 tons, and the rapeseed meal inventory was 0.02 million tons. The low inventory is due to the off - season of aquaculture, and the sufficient supply of soybean meal suppresses rapeseed meal prices [93]. Technical Analysis - The current price of the soybean meal 2605 contract is at a historically low level [99].

Core Viewpoint - Li Ning's performance in H1 2025 exceeded market expectations, with revenue growth driven by wholesale channels and professional products, despite challenges in certain categories [1][2] Financial Performance - In H1 2025, Li Ning achieved revenue of 14.82 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.74 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.0% [1] - The company plans to distribute an interim dividend of 870 million yuan, with a payout ratio of 50% [1] Channel Performance - Revenue from direct sales, wholesale, and e-commerce channels in H1 2025 was 3.38 billion yuan (-3%), 6.88 billion yuan (+4%), and 4.30 billion yuan (+7%) respectively, aligning with overall sales growth [1] - The running and training categories saw significant growth, each increasing by 15% year-on-year, while basketball and lifestyle categories continued to decline, with decreases of 20% and 7% respectively [1] Operational Metrics - Gross margin in H1 2025 was 50.0%, a slight decrease of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to deeper discounts and a slight increase in e-commerce sales proportion [1] - Operating profit margin (OPM) was 16.5%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year, but still above market expectations [1] - Advertising and marketing expenses increased by 0.3 percentage points to 9.0% of revenue, with higher spending anticipated in H2 2025 [1] Product and Inventory Management - The inventory turnover ratio remained stable at approximately 4 months, with new products accounting for 82% of sales, a slight decrease of 1 percentage point year-on-year [2] - Professional products contributed over 60% to revenue, with improved discount rates and a sell-through rate maintained between 70%-80% [2] Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 2.59 billion yuan, 2.77 billion yuan, and 2.99 billion yuan for the years 2025-2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 17, 16, and 15 times [2] - Increased brand promotion efforts are anticipated to seek growth amidst intensifying competition, with potential recovery in the basketball category due to new product launches [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural products sector shows different trends: oilseeds and oils are in a strong - side oscillation, oils and by - products maintain an oscillatory trend, soft commodities like sugar have a slight oscillation, cotton's bullish rise has declined, and grains such as corn and starch are in a weak and narrow - range consolidation [2]. - It is recommended to construct option portfolio strategies mainly based on sellers, as well as spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The latest prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest of various agricultural product futures are presented, including soybeans, soybean meal, palm oil, etc. For example, the latest price of soybean No.1 (A2511) is 4,056 with no change, and its trading volume is 8.83 million lots [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume and open interest PCR of different agricultural product options are provided, which are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market respectively. For instance, the volume PCR of soybean No.1 option is 0.32, with a change of - 0.14 [4]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of different agricultural product options are given, which are determined by the strike prices of the maximum open interest of call and put options. For example, the pressure level of soybean No.1 is 4500, and the support level is 4100 [5]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility data of different agricultural product options are presented, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and its change. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of soybean No.1 is 11.985%, and the weighted implied volatility is 14.43% with a change of - 1.72% [6]. 3.5 Option Strategies and Recommendations 3.5.1 Oilseeds and Oils Options - **Soybean No.1 and No.2**: The fundamentals of soybeans are affected by factors such as USDA's adjustment of planting area and yield, and Trump's call for China to buy soybeans. The option strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [7]. - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal**: The fundamentals of soybean meal are related to the monthly purchase volume. The option strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9]. - **Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, and Rapeseed Oil**: The fundamentals of oils are affected by USDA's reports and India's inventory replenishment. The option strategies include constructing a bullish call spread strategy, a long - biased call + put option combination strategy, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. - **Peanuts**: The fundamentals of peanuts are related to the spot price, import volume, and oil mill operation rate. The option strategies include constructing a bearish put spread strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. 3.5.2 By - product Options - **Pigs**: The supply of pigs is relatively loose, and the demand is stimulated by low prices. The option strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a covered call strategy for spot [11]. - **Eggs**: The inventory of laying hens is expected to increase. The option strategies include constructing a bearish put spread strategy and a short - biased call + put option combination strategy [12]. - **Apples**: The cold - storage inventory of apples is at a low level. The option strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination strategy [12]. - **Red Dates**: The inventory of red dates is decreasing, and the market is improving. The option strategies include constructing a bullish call spread strategy, a long - biased wide - straddle option combination strategy, and a covered call strategy for spot [13]. 3.5.3 Soft Commodity Options - **Sugar**: The fundamentals of sugar are affected by Brazil's sugar production data. The option strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [13]. - **Cotton**: The fundamentals of cotton are related to the operating rates of spinning and weaving mills and global production. The option strategies include constructing a long - biased call + put option combination strategy and a covered call strategy for spot [14]. 3.5.4 Grain Options - **Corn and Starch**: The fundamentals of corn are affected by USDA's planting area and yield adjustment. The option strategies include constructing a bearish put spread strategy and a short - biased call + put option combination strategy [14]. 3.6 Option Charts - Charts of various agricultural product options are provided, including price trend charts, volume and open interest charts, implied volatility charts, etc., to visually display the market conditions of different agricultural product options [15][34][53].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The agricultural product options market shows diversified trends. Oilseeds and oils are in a relatively strong and volatile state, while some agricultural by - products and soft commodities are in a volatile or weak state. - The recommended strategy is to construct an option portfolio strategy mainly based on sellers, as well as spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - Different agricultural product futures have different price changes. For example, the latest price of soybean No.1 (A2511) is 4,068, up 24 with a growth rate of 0.59%, while the price of corn (C2511) is 2,187, down 5 with a decline rate of 0.23% [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume and open interest PCR of different options vary. For example, the volume PCR of soybean No.1 is 0.47, down 0.07, and the open interest PCR is 0.37, up 0.01, which can be used to analyze the strength and turning points of the option underlying market [4]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - From the perspective of the maximum open interest of call and put options, the pressure and support levels of different options are determined. For example, the pressure level of soybean No.1 is 4,500 and the support level is 4,100 [5]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of different options also shows different characteristics. For example, the weighted implied volatility of soybean No.1 is 16.15%, up 1.00%, and the difference between implied and historical volatility is 0.12 [6]. 3.5 Strategy and Recommendations 3.5.1 Oilseeds and Oils Options - **Soybean No.1 and No.2**: The fundamentals of soybeans are affected by factors such as USDA's adjustment of planting area and yield, and the market shows a volatile pattern. Options strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [7]. - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal**: The market of soybean meal shows a pattern of weak consolidation and then rebound. Options strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9]. - **Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, and Rapeseed Oil**: The fundamentals of oils are affected by factors such as USDA's report and India's replenishment. Palm oil shows a bullish trend. Options strategies include constructing a bull spread combination strategy for calls and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. - **Peanuts**: The peanut market shows a pattern of weak consolidation under bearish pressure. Options strategies include constructing a bear spread combination strategy for puts and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. 3.5.2 Agricultural By - products Options - **Pigs**: The supply of pigs is relatively loose, and the demand is stimulated by low prices. The market shows a weak consolidation pattern. Options strategies include constructing a bearish call + put option combination strategy and a covered call strategy for spot [11]. - **Eggs**: The inventory of laying hens is expected to increase, and the market shows a bearish pattern. Options strategies include constructing a bear spread combination strategy for puts and a bearish call + put option combination strategy [12]. - **Apples**: The cold - storage inventory of apples is at a low level, and the market shows a pattern of continuous recovery. Options strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination strategy [12]. - **Red Dates**: The inventory of red dates is decreasing, and the market shows a short - term bullish pattern. Options strategies include constructing a bull spread combination strategy for calls and a wide - straddle option combination strategy [13]. 3.5.3 Soft Commodities Options - **Sugar**: The production of sugar in Brazil shows a decline, and the market shows a bearish pattern. Options strategies include constructing a bearish call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [13]. - **Cotton**: The开机 rate of spinning and weaving factories is relatively low, and the market shows a short - term weak pattern. Options strategies include constructing a bullish call + put option combination strategy and a covered call strategy for spot [14]. 3.5.4 Grains Options - **Corn and Starch**: The planting area and yield of corn are expected to increase, and the market shows a weak pattern. Options strategies include constructing a bear spread combination strategy for puts and a bearish call + put option combination strategy [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - USDA significantly reduced the soybean planting area, with the US soybean production decreasing by 1.08 million tons month - on - month. In the short term, it is bullish for CBOT soybeans. However, given the global oversupply of protein raw materials, the upward momentum of soybean import costs is insufficient. Currently, due to the low valuation of US soybeans, the positive impact of EPA policies, and the sole supply of soybeans from Brazil from September to January, it is expected to maintain a stable and slightly upward trend. - The domestic soybean meal market is still in a seasonal oversupply situation, and it is expected that the spot market may start destocking in September. Therefore, the soybean meal market has both bullish and bearish factors. It is recommended to try long positions at the lower end of the soybean meal cost range, pay attention to crushing margins and supply pressure at the upper end, and focus on the progress of Sino - US tariffs and new drivers on the supply side [9][10][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **International Soybeans**: This week, USDA lowered the US soybean planting area by about 2.5 million acres. Farmers switched to corn due to the decline in fertilizer prices. After the yield per unit was increased, the total production decreased by about 1 million tons month - on - month. The inventory - to - sales ratio of US soybeans in the 25/26 season dropped from 7.06% to 6.66%, and that of global soybeans in the 25/26 season decreased from 29.65% to 29.38%. Trump called on China to buy soybeans, and US soybeans rose due to these two factors. The Brazilian premium quotes remained firm as there was no actual soybean trade between China and the US, and the soybean import cost increased significantly this week. In the future, the valuation of US soybeans is at a low level, and Brazilian soybean quotes are supported by China's vessel bookings and Sino - US trade relations. If Sino - US soybean trade resumes later, the rebound of US soybeans and the decline of Brazilian premiums may offset each other. Overall, the overseas soybean market is in a state of low valuation, support, and oversupply, with no clear directional driver yet, but the domestic soybean import cost is in a slightly stronger and stable state due to a single supply source. - **Domestic Double - Meal**: This week, the domestic soybean meal spot prices mainly followed the futures prices higher. The increase in soybean import costs drove the soybean meal futures to strengthen. This week, domestic trading was average, and提货 was at a relatively high level. The inventory days of feed enterprises were 8.35 days, slightly higher than the same period last year and down 0.02 days month - on - month. As of August 12, institutional statistics showed that vessel bookings were 13.79 million tons in March, 10.29 million tons in April, 11.81 million tons in May, 12.72 million tons in June, 10.69 million tons in July, 9.17 million tons in August, 8.31 million tons in September, and 4.23 million tons in October. The current vessel - booking progress indicates that the domestic soybean inventory may decline around the end of September, and domestic soybean - related prices may bottom out and fluctuate before that. In the future, attention should be paid to Sino - US negotiations and Brazilian premium information [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the unilateral strategy, the market is expected to be volatile. Given the bullish and bearish factors in the soybean meal market, it is recommended to try long positions at the lower end of the soybean meal cost range, pay attention to crushing margins and supply pressure at the upper end, and focus on the progress of Sino - US tariffs and new drivers on the supply side. No information on the arbitrage strategy was provided [11]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Spot Prices**: Included charts of the spot prices of soybean meal in Dongguan, Guangdong and rapeseed meal in Huangpu, Guangdong to show the price trends [17][18]. - **Basis of Main Contracts**: Included charts of the basis of the soybean meal 09 contract and the rapeseed meal 09 contract to show the basis trends [20][21]. - **Spreads**: Included charts of various spreads such as the soybean meal 09 - 01 spread, soybean meal 09 - rapeseed meal 09 spread, etc., to show the spread trends [22][23]. - **Fund Positioning**: Included charts of the net long positions of US soybean and US soybean meal managed funds to show the fund positioning trends [25][27][28]. 3.3. Supply Side - **US Soybean Planting Progress**: Included charts of the US soybean planting progress, emergence rate, flowering rate, and good - to - excellent rate to show the growth situation of US soybeans [30][31]. - **Weather Conditions**: Mentioned that La Nina may occur from October 2025 to January, and included charts related to El Nino outlook, La Nina probability, and the impact of La Nina on precipitation and climate in North America and South America [33][36][39]. - **US Soybean Export Progress**: Included charts of the total export contracts of US soybeans to China in the current market year, the sales completion rate of US soybeans in the current year, the total export contracts of US soybeans in the current market year, and the cumulative export shipments of US soybeans to China in the current market year to show the export situation of US soybeans [50][51]. - **China's Oilseed Imports**: Included charts of the monthly imports and forecasts of soybeans and rapeseeds in China to show China's oilseed import situation [53][54]. - **China's Oil Mill Crushing Situation**: Included charts of the soybean and rapeseed crushing volumes of major oil mills in China to show the crushing situation of Chinese oil mills [55][56]. 3.4. Profit and Inventory - **Oilseed Inventory**: Included charts of the soybean port inventory and the rapeseed inventory of major oil mills in China to show the oilseed inventory situation [59][60]. - **Protein Meal Inventory**: Included charts of the soybean meal inventory and forecast of coastal major oil mills and the rapeseed meal inventory of coastal major oil mills to show the protein meal inventory situation [62][63]. - **Protein Meal Crushing Profit**: Included charts of the crushing profit of imported soybeans in Guangdong and the crushing profit of imported rapeseeds along the coast to show the protein meal crushing profit situation [64][65]. 3.5. Demand Side - **Soybean Meal Demand**: Included charts of the cumulative transaction volume of soybean meal in major oil mills in the crop year and the apparent consumption of soybean meal to show the demand situation of soybean meal [66][67]. - **Breeding Profit**: Included charts of the average profit per pig in self - breeding and self - raising and the breeding profit of white - feather broilers to show the breeding profit situation [69][70].

Group 1 - The SP2509 contract experienced significant volatility in July, rising from 5080 points to a peak of 5560 points, an increase of 9.4%, followed by a decline of 6.1% in the last week [1] - The macroeconomic factors are driving the market more than the fundamentals, as indicated by the stable pulp spot market and weakening basis [1] - Global economic indicators, such as Citigroup's Global Surprise Index, have remained above zero this year, with most data exceeding expectations [1] Group 2 - In June, China's social financing increased by 4.20 trillion yuan, marking seven consecutive months of year-on-year growth, supporting the logic of a strong macroeconomic environment [1] - The supply of hardwood pulp has decreased compared to softwood pulp, while downstream consumption continues to rise, indicating a better fundamental outlook for hardwood pulp [1] - The price spread between hardwood and softwood pulp is expected to narrow from -174 points to -1211 points by the second half of 2024, reflecting an improvement in hardwood pulp fundamentals [1] Group 3 - The softwood pulp supply side is underperforming, with a sales-to-inventory ratio of 0.92 in Europe for June, leading to seven consecutive months of inventory accumulation [1] - Domestic imports of softwood wood chips and pulp reached 793,000 tons in June, marking a marginal increase for seven consecutive months, which negatively impacts SP valuations [1] - The domestic paper industry is facing ongoing operational pressures, with total profits decreasing by 21.4% year-on-year in June and total losses increasing by 29.8% year-on-year [1] Group 4 - In May, electricity consumption in the paper industry was 846 million kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year decrease of 2.1%, falling below the average of 875 million kilowatt-hours for the previous year [1] - By the end of July, the paper industry issued an anti-involution initiative, aiming to reduce finished paper production, limit wood pulp capacity expansion, and improve the quality of finished paper [1] - Overall, the market fundamentals are considered average [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - External soybean market: The valuation of US soybeans and soybean meal is at a low level. The Brazilian soybean quote is supported by Chinese vessel purchases and Sino - US trade relations. The external soybean market is in a state of low valuation with support and oversupply, lacking a clear directional driver. The domestic soybean import cost is in a state of small - amplitude upward oscillation due to a single supply source [9]. - Domestic double - meal market: The domestic soybean meal spot price fluctuated with the futures this week. The Sino - US negotiation not involving soybeans provided some support, but previous soybean meal vessel purchases and the information of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs promoting the reduction of soybean meal consumption may continue to suppress the valuation. The domestic market had good transactions this week, and the提货 was at a relatively high level. The soybean inventory in China may decline around the end of September, and the domestic soybean - related prices may bottom out and oscillate before that. The soybean meal market is a mix of long and short factors. It is recommended to try long positions at the low end of the cost range and pay attention to crushing margins and supply pressure at the high end, waiting for progress in Sino - US tariffs and new drivers from the supply side. For arbitrage, pay attention to widening the spread of the soybean meal - rapeseed meal 09 contract [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **International Soybeans**: US soybeans were weakly declining this week due to good weather bringing harvest pressure and the lack of positive impact on US soybean exports from Sino - US negotiations. The USDA August monthly report may maintain the July report's inventory - to - sales ratio of 7.06% for US soybeans in the 25/26 season and 29.65% for global soybeans in the 25/26 season [9]. - **Domestic Double - Meal**: The domestic soybean meal spot price fluctuated with the futures. The Sino - US negotiation not involving soybeans provided support, but previous vessel purchases and the promotion of reduced soybean meal consumption may suppress the valuation. As of the end of last week, the inventory days of feed enterprises slightly decreased to 8.05 days, slightly higher than the same period last year. The vessel purchase schedule indicates that the domestic soybean inventory may decline around the end of September [9]. - **Strategies**: In the soybean meal market, try long positions at the low end of the cost range and pay attention to crushing margins and supply pressure at the high end, waiting for Sino - US tariff progress and new supply - side drivers. For arbitrage, widen the spread of the soybean meal - rapeseed meal 09 contract [9][10][11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Spot Prices**: There are charts showing the spot prices of soybean meal in Dongguan, Guangdong and rapeseed meal in Huangpu, Guangdong [17][18]. - **Basis of Main Contracts**: There are charts showing the basis of the soybean meal 09 contract and the rapeseed meal 09 contract [20][21]. - **Spreads**: There are charts showing spreads such as the soybean meal 09 - 01 spread, soybean meal 09 - rapeseed meal 09 spread, etc. [23][24]. - **Fund Positions**: There are charts showing the net long positions of US soybean and US soybean meal managed funds [26][28]. 3.3 Supply Side - **US Soybean Planting Progress**: There are charts showing the US soybean planting progress, emergence rate, flowering rate, and excellent - good rate [32][33]. - **Weather Conditions**: There are charts showing the weighted precipitation in US soybean - producing areas and Canadian rapeseed - producing areas, and there is a possibility of La Nina occurring from October 2025 to January [35][38]. - **US Soybean Export Progress**: There are charts showing the total export contracts of US soybeans to China in the current market year, the sales completion rate, etc. [52][53]. - **China's Oilseed Imports**: There are charts showing China's monthly soybean and rapeseed imports and forecasts [55][56]. - **China's Oil Mill Crushing**: There are charts showing the soybean and rapeseed crushing volumes of major oil mills [57][58]. 3.4 Profit and Inventory - **Oilseed Inventory**: There are charts showing the soybean port inventory and the rapeseed inventory of major oil mills [61][62]. - **Protein Meal Inventory**: There are charts showing the soybean meal inventory and forecast of coastal major oil mills and the rapeseed meal inventory of coastal major oil mills [64][65]. - **Protein Meal Crushing Profit**: There are charts showing the crushing profits of imported soybeans in Guangdong and imported rapeseed along the coast [66][67]. 3.5 Demand Side - **Soybean Meal Demand**: There are charts showing the cumulative transaction volume of soybean meal in major oil mills in the crop year and the apparent consumption of soybean meal [68][69]. - **Breeding Profit**: There are charts showing the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising pigs and the breeding profit of white - feather broilers [71][72].