1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural products sector shows different trends: oilseeds and oils are in a strong - side oscillation, oils and by - products maintain an oscillatory trend, soft commodities like sugar have a slight oscillation, cotton's bullish rise has declined, and grains such as corn and starch are in a weak and narrow - range consolidation [2]. - It is recommended to construct option portfolio strategies mainly based on sellers, as well as spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The latest prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest of various agricultural product futures are presented, including soybeans, soybean meal, palm oil, etc. For example, the latest price of soybean No.1 (A2511) is 4,056 with no change, and its trading volume is 8.83 million lots [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume and open interest PCR of different agricultural product options are provided, which are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market respectively. For instance, the volume PCR of soybean No.1 option is 0.32, with a change of - 0.14 [4]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of different agricultural product options are given, which are determined by the strike prices of the maximum open interest of call and put options. For example, the pressure level of soybean No.1 is 4500, and the support level is 4100 [5]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility data of different agricultural product options are presented, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and its change. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of soybean No.1 is 11.985%, and the weighted implied volatility is 14.43% with a change of - 1.72% [6]. 3.5 Option Strategies and Recommendations 3.5.1 Oilseeds and Oils Options - **Soybean No.1 and No.2**: The fundamentals of soybeans are affected by factors such as USDA's adjustment of planting area and yield, and Trump's call for China to buy soybeans. The option strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [7]. - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal**: The fundamentals of soybean meal are related to the monthly purchase volume. The option strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9]. - **Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, and Rapeseed Oil**: The fundamentals of oils are affected by USDA's reports and India's inventory replenishment. The option strategies include constructing a bullish call spread strategy, a long - biased call + put option combination strategy, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. - **Peanuts**: The fundamentals of peanuts are related to the spot price, import volume, and oil mill operation rate. The option strategies include constructing a bearish put spread strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. 3.5.2 By - product Options - **Pigs**: The supply of pigs is relatively loose, and the demand is stimulated by low prices. The option strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a covered call strategy for spot [11]. - **Eggs**: The inventory of laying hens is expected to increase. The option strategies include constructing a bearish put spread strategy and a short - biased call + put option combination strategy [12]. - **Apples**: The cold - storage inventory of apples is at a low level. The option strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination strategy [12]. - **Red Dates**: The inventory of red dates is decreasing, and the market is improving. The option strategies include constructing a bullish call spread strategy, a long - biased wide - straddle option combination strategy, and a covered call strategy for spot [13]. 3.5.3 Soft Commodity Options - **Sugar**: The fundamentals of sugar are affected by Brazil's sugar production data. The option strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [13]. - **Cotton**: The fundamentals of cotton are related to the operating rates of spinning and weaving mills and global production. The option strategies include constructing a long - biased call + put option combination strategy and a covered call strategy for spot [14]. 3.5.4 Grain Options - **Corn and Starch**: The fundamentals of corn are affected by USDA's planting area and yield adjustment. The option strategies include constructing a bearish put spread strategy and a short - biased call + put option combination strategy [14]. 3.6 Option Charts - Charts of various agricultural product options are provided, including price trend charts, volume and open interest charts, implied volatility charts, etc., to visually display the market conditions of different agricultural product options [15][34][53].

农产品期权 2025-08-18 农产品期权策略早报 | 卢品先 | 投研经理 | 从业资格号：F3047321 | 交易咨询号：Z0015541 | 邮箱：lupx@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | | 李仁君 | 产业服务 | 从业资格号：F03090207 | 交易咨询号：Z0016947 | 邮箱：lirj@wkqh.cn | 农产品期权策略早报概要：油料油脂类农产品偏强震荡，油脂类，农副产品维持震荡行情，软商品白糖小幅震荡， 棉花多头上涨有所回落，谷物类玉米和淀粉弱势窄幅盘整。 策略上：构建卖方为主的期权组合策略以及现货套保或备兑策略增强收益。 表1：标的期货市场概况 | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - USDA significantly reduced the soybean planting area, with the US soybean production decreasing by 1.08 million tons month - on - month. In the short term, it is bullish for CBOT soybeans. However, given the global oversupply of protein raw materials, the upward momentum of soybean import costs is insufficient. Currently, due to the low valuation of US soybeans, the positive impact of EPA policies, and the sole supply of soybeans from Brazil from September to January, it is expected to maintain a stable and slightly upward trend. - The domestic soybean meal market is still in a seasonal oversupply situation, and it is expected that the spot market may start destocking in September. Therefore, the soybean meal market has both bullish and bearish factors. It is recommended to try long positions at the lower end of the soybean meal cost range, pay attention to crushing margins and supply pressure at the upper end, and focus on the progress of Sino - US tariffs and new drivers on the supply side [9][10][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **International Soybeans**: This week, USDA lowered the US soybean planting area by about 2.5 million acres. Farmers switched to corn due to the decline in fertilizer prices. After the yield per unit was increased, the total production decreased by about 1 million tons month - on - month. The inventory - to - sales ratio of US soybeans in the 25/26 season dropped from 7.06% to 6.66%, and that of global soybeans in the 25/26 season decreased from 29.65% to 29.38%. Trump called on China to buy soybeans, and US soybeans rose due to these two factors. The Brazilian premium quotes remained firm as there was no actual soybean trade between China and the US, and the soybean import cost increased significantly this week. In the future, the valuation of US soybeans is at a low level, and Brazilian soybean quotes are supported by China's vessel bookings and Sino - US trade relations. If Sino - US soybean trade resumes later, the rebound of US soybeans and the decline of Brazilian premiums may offset each other. Overall, the overseas soybean market is in a state of low valuation, support, and oversupply, with no clear directional driver yet, but the domestic soybean import cost is in a slightly stronger and stable state due to a single supply source. - **Domestic Double - Meal**: This week, the domestic soybean meal spot prices mainly followed the futures prices higher. The increase in soybean import costs drove the soybean meal futures to strengthen. This week, domestic trading was average, and提货 was at a relatively high level. The inventory days of feed enterprises were 8.35 days, slightly higher than the same period last year and down 0.02 days month - on - month. As of August 12, institutional statistics showed that vessel bookings were 13.79 million tons in March, 10.29 million tons in April, 11.81 million tons in May, 12.72 million tons in June, 10.69 million tons in July, 9.17 million tons in August, 8.31 million tons in September, and 4.23 million tons in October. The current vessel - booking progress indicates that the domestic soybean inventory may decline around the end of September, and domestic soybean - related prices may bottom out and fluctuate before that. In the future, attention should be paid to Sino - US negotiations and Brazilian premium information [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the unilateral strategy, the market is expected to be volatile. Given the bullish and bearish factors in the soybean meal market, it is recommended to try long positions at the lower end of the soybean meal cost range, pay attention to crushing margins and supply pressure at the upper end, and focus on the progress of Sino - US tariffs and new drivers on the supply side. No information on the arbitrage strategy was provided [11]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Spot Prices**: Included charts of the spot prices of soybean meal in Dongguan, Guangdong and rapeseed meal in Huangpu, Guangdong to show the price trends [17][18]. - **Basis of Main Contracts**: Included charts of the basis of the soybean meal 09 contract and the rapeseed meal 09 contract to show the basis trends [20][21]. - **Spreads**: Included charts of various spreads such as the soybean meal 09 - 01 spread, soybean meal 09 - rapeseed meal 09 spread, etc., to show the spread trends [22][23]. - **Fund Positioning**: Included charts of the net long positions of US soybean and US soybean meal managed funds to show the fund positioning trends [25][27][28]. 3.3. Supply Side - **US Soybean Planting Progress**: Included charts of the US soybean planting progress, emergence rate, flowering rate, and good - to - excellent rate to show the growth situation of US soybeans [30][31]. - **Weather Conditions**: Mentioned that La Nina may occur from October 2025 to January, and included charts related to El Nino outlook, La Nina probability, and the impact of La Nina on precipitation and climate in North America and South America [33][36][39]. - **US Soybean Export Progress**: Included charts of the total export contracts of US soybeans to China in the current market year, the sales completion rate of US soybeans in the current year, the total export contracts of US soybeans in the current market year, and the cumulative export shipments of US soybeans to China in the current market year to show the export situation of US soybeans [50][51]. - **China's Oilseed Imports**: Included charts of the monthly imports and forecasts of soybeans and rapeseeds in China to show China's oilseed import situation [53][54]. - **China's Oil Mill Crushing Situation**: Included charts of the soybean and rapeseed crushing volumes of major oil mills in China to show the crushing situation of Chinese oil mills [55][56]. 3.4. Profit and Inventory - **Oilseed Inventory**: Included charts of the soybean port inventory and the rapeseed inventory of major oil mills in China to show the oilseed inventory situation [59][60]. - **Protein Meal Inventory**: Included charts of the soybean meal inventory and forecast of coastal major oil mills and the rapeseed meal inventory of coastal major oil mills to show the protein meal inventory situation [62][63]. - **Protein Meal Crushing Profit**: Included charts of the crushing profit of imported soybeans in Guangdong and the crushing profit of imported rapeseeds along the coast to show the protein meal crushing profit situation [64][65]. 3.5. Demand Side - **Soybean Meal Demand**: Included charts of the cumulative transaction volume of soybean meal in major oil mills in the crop year and the apparent consumption of soybean meal to show the demand situation of soybean meal [66][67]. - **Breeding Profit**: Included charts of the average profit per pig in self - breeding and self - raising and the breeding profit of white - feather broilers to show the breeding profit situation [69][70].

Group 1 - The SP2509 contract experienced significant volatility in July, rising from 5080 points to a peak of 5560 points, an increase of 9.4%, followed by a decline of 6.1% in the last week [1] - The macroeconomic factors are driving the market more than the fundamentals, as indicated by the stable pulp spot market and weakening basis [1] - Global economic indicators, such as Citigroup's Global Surprise Index, have remained above zero this year, with most data exceeding expectations [1] Group 2 - In June, China's social financing increased by 4.20 trillion yuan, marking seven consecutive months of year-on-year growth, supporting the logic of a strong macroeconomic environment [1] - The supply of hardwood pulp has decreased compared to softwood pulp, while downstream consumption continues to rise, indicating a better fundamental outlook for hardwood pulp [1] - The price spread between hardwood and softwood pulp is expected to narrow from -174 points to -1211 points by the second half of 2024, reflecting an improvement in hardwood pulp fundamentals [1] Group 3 - The softwood pulp supply side is underperforming, with a sales-to-inventory ratio of 0.92 in Europe for June, leading to seven consecutive months of inventory accumulation [1] - Domestic imports of softwood wood chips and pulp reached 793,000 tons in June, marking a marginal increase for seven consecutive months, which negatively impacts SP valuations [1] - The domestic paper industry is facing ongoing operational pressures, with total profits decreasing by 21.4% year-on-year in June and total losses increasing by 29.8% year-on-year [1] Group 4 - In May, electricity consumption in the paper industry was 846 million kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year decrease of 2.1%, falling below the average of 875 million kilowatt-hours for the previous year [1] - By the end of July, the paper industry issued an anti-involution initiative, aiming to reduce finished paper production, limit wood pulp capacity expansion, and improve the quality of finished paper [1] - Overall, the market fundamentals are considered average [1]

蛋白粕周报 2025/08/02 巴西报价上涨，豆粕锚定成本 斯小伟（农产品组） 028-86133280 sxwei@wkqh.cn 从业资格号： F03114441 交易咨询号： Z0022498 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 国际大豆：本周美豆偏弱下行，天气较好带来丰收压力，且中美谈判暂未给美豆出口带来利好，中国作为最大的美豆进口国缺乏买船带动美 豆低迷运行，不过也造成了巴西报价强势的局面。在北美天气维持较好趋势，南美新作面积暂未有较大改动预期情况下，USDA8月月报可能 仍然维持7月月报美豆25/26年度库销比7.06%，全球大豆25/26年度库销比29.65%。后市方面，美豆、豆粕估值处于较低位置，巴西大豆报价 则受到中国买船及中美贸易关系的支撑，如果中美大豆贸易后期放开，美豆反弹和巴西升贴水下跌幅度又可能对冲，总体来看，外盘大豆处 于低估值有支撑、供大于求状态，暂未出现明确的方向性驱动，但国内大豆进口成本则处于因单一供应来源造成的震荡小幅上涨状态。 国内双粕：本周国内豆粕现货跟随期货震荡为主，中美谈判暂未涉及大豆为豆粕提供一定支撑，不过前期的豆粕买船及农业农村部推动豆粕 消费减量等信息可能继续打 ...

Group 1: Corn Market Insights - The global corn supply-demand gap is widening, with a decreasing global corn stock-to-use ratio, which is favorable for international corn prices [1] - For the 2025/26 season, global corn production is projected at 126.4 million tons, an increase of 38.36 million tons from the previous year, while consumption is expected to reach 127.6 million tons, an increase of 18.95 million tons [2] - The ending stock for corn is forecasted at 27.2 million tons, a decrease of 12.1 million tons year-on-year, with a stock-to-use ratio of 18.5%, the lowest since the 2014/15 season [2] Group 2: Wheat Market Insights - Global wheat production for the 2025/26 season is estimated at 80.9 million tons, an increase of 8.63 million tons from the previous year, while consumption is expected to rise to 81.1 million tons, an increase of 5.14 million tons [3] - The ending stock for wheat is projected at 26.2 million tons, a decrease of 2.07 million tons year-on-year, with a stock-to-use ratio of 25.5%, the lowest since the 2015/16 season [3] Group 3: Soybean Market Insights - For the 2025/26 season, global soybean production is forecasted at 42.8 million tons, an increase of 5.68 million tons from the previous year, while consumption is expected to reach 42.5 million tons, an increase of 16.13 million tons [4] - The ending stock for soybeans is projected at 12.6 million tons, an increase of 0.95 million tons year-on-year, with a stock-to-use ratio of 20.6% [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Views - In Q2 2025, the main brand's offline retail revenue recorded approximately 10% growth, while the children's clothing brand also saw about 10% growth. E-commerce platforms experienced around 20% growth [2][3] - The company continues to introduce new products to meet diverse consumer demands and has expanded its super stores to 49 locations, with stable inventory and discount levels [3][5] Summary by Relevant Sections Revenue Growth - In Q2 2025, adult apparel offline revenue grew approximately 10%, children's apparel offline revenue also grew about 10%, and e-commerce revenue increased by around 20%, although the growth rate has slowed compared to previous quarters [4][5] Product Development - The company is actively launching competitive new products in various categories, including running shoes and basketball shoes. Notable new releases include the FUTURE 2 and Q弹超 6 running shoes, and the 禅 7 basketball shoes [5] Channel Expansion - The number of super stores has expanded to 49, with 39 new stores opened in Q2. The stores focus on comprehensive category coverage and a one-stop shopping experience, with an expected total of 80-100 new stores for the year [5][6] Inventory and Discount Management - The inventory-to-sales ratio remains stable at 4.5-5.0, with retail discounts around 71%, showing no significant year-on-year change and a slight increase quarter-on-quarter [6] Financial Forecast - The company maintains its profit forecast, expecting net profits of 1.3 billion, 1.46 billion, and 1.63 billion yuan for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 13.1%, 12.2%, and 11.8% respectively. The target price is maintained at 4.7-5.4 HKD, corresponding to a PE ratio of 7-8x for 2025 [8][9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The adjustment of SP futures contract rules expands the scope of hedging, attracting more funds [59] - The growth rate of social inventory has accelerated, which is relatively unfavorable for all non - standard spot goods including broadleaf pulp [59] - The broadleaf pulp has stabilized, and the spread between broadleaf and softwood pulp has strengthened [59] - The domestic papermaking industry mainly uses more broadleaf pulp, but overall it still faces great challenges [59] - The domestic manufacturing data is better than that of the United States, which is relatively positive for SP, but there is more downside space for pulp prices [59] - The pulp market fundamentals are weak [59] Summary by Directory Coniferous Supply Impact on SP Unilateral - As of May 2025, European bleached softwood kraft pulp inventory decreased month - on - month to 238,000 tons, consumption increased month - on - month to 269,000 tons, and the inventory - to - sales ratio was 0.89 times, with a 4.7% year - on - year increase in the average of the past 12 months, which is bearish for SP but with limited impact [9] - As of May 2025, domestic coniferous wood chip imports increased for two consecutive months to 21,000 tons (equivalent to 11,000 tons of pulp), coniferous pulp imports decreased for two consecutive months to 821,000 tons, and the total long - fiber imports decreased by 4.3% year - on - year in the past 6 months, which is bearish for SP but with limited impact [9] Broadleaf Supply Impact on Broadleaf - Coniferous Spread - As of May 2025, broadleaf wood chip imports increased month - on - month to 1.289 million tons (equivalent to 644,000 tons of pulp), broadleaf pulp imports increased month - on - month to 1.309 million tons; coniferous wood chip imports increased for two consecutive months to 21,000 tons (equivalent to 11,000 tons of pulp), coniferous pulp imports decreased for two consecutive months to 821,000 tons. The short - fiber to long - fiber import ratio was 2.35 times, with a 10.5% year - on - year increase in the average of the past 12 months, which is bullish for the broadleaf - coniferous spread [16] - As of May 2025, the use of broadleaf pulp in domestic papermaking decreased month - on - month to 2.224 million tons, and the use of coniferous pulp decreased for three consecutive months to 523,000 tons. The consumption ratio was 4.26 times, with an 8.0% year - on - year increase in the average of the past 9 months, which is bullish for the broadleaf - coniferous spread [16] International Pulp and Paper Trade Impact on SP Unilateral - In May 2025, the domestic pulp import value increased month - on - month to $1.906 billion, and in April, the US pulp import value decreased month - on - month to $308 million. The combined value decreased by 3.6% year - on - year in the past 3 months, which is bearish for SP but with limited impact [24] - In May 2025, the total export value of paper products from Japan, South Korea, and Brazil was $565 million, with a 5.4% year - on - year decrease in the past 3 months, which is bearish for SP [24] Port Inventory Impact on SP Unilateral - As of July 4, 2025, the total pulp inventory in major ports was 2.392 million tons, a 9.8% year - on - year increase, which is bearish for SP [30] Port Inventory Impact on Broadleaf - Coniferous - As of July 4, 2025, the ratio of the four - port inventory to the warehouse receipt inventory increased for four consecutive months to 8.97 times, with a 60.7% year - on - year increase in the average of the past 6 months, which is relatively bearish for broadleaf pulp [35] Manufacturing PMI Impact - As of June 2025, China's manufacturing PMI increased for two consecutive months to 49.7 points, with a 0.2% year - on - year increase in the 12 - month average, with the growth rate narrowing [36] - As of June 2025, the US manufacturing PMI increased month - on - month to 49.0 points, with a 1.3% year - on - year increase in the 12 - month average, with the growth rate narrowing, which is bearish for SP [37] Domestic Papermaking Output and Inventory Impact on SP Unilateral - In April 2025, domestic papermaking electricity consumption decreased month - on - month to 838 million kWh, with a 0.6% year - on - year increase in the past 12 months, with the growth rate narrowing, which is bearish for SP [46] - In April 2025, domestic papermaking finished - product inventory increased for four consecutive months to 77.57 billion yuan, with a 5.6% year - on - year increase in the past 12 - month average, which is bearish for SP [46] US Policy and International Oil Price Impact on SP Unilateral - As of early July, the US economic policy uncertainty index increased month - on - month to 536.4 points, with an 84.5% year - on - year increase in the past 12 - month average, which is bullish for SP [52] - As of early July, the Brent crude oil price decreased month - on - month to $68.3 per barrel, with a 21.3% year - on - year decrease in the past 3 - month average, with the decline rate narrowing, which is bullish for SP [52] International Trade and US Dollar Index Impact on SP Unilateral - In May 2025, the domestic import and export volume decreased month - on - month to $529 billion, with a 2.1% year - on - year increase in the past 6 - month cumulative value, with the growth rate narrowing, which is bullish for SP valuation [58] - In June 2025, the real broad - based US dollar index decreased for five consecutive months to 114.9 points, with a 5.7% year - on - year increase in the past 9 - month average, which is bearish for SP [58]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The soybean meal market is in a situation of mixed long - and short - term factors. The domestic soybean meal valuation is under pressure, while the external soybean import cost fluctuates. It is recommended to buy on dips at the lower end of the cost range and pay attention to the supply pressure at the upper end [2][5]. - The global oil market is expected to be volatile. Although there are some positive factors, the upside space is limited due to factors such as annual production increase expectations and weak demand [7][10]. - The domestic sugar price is likely to continue to decline in a volatile manner. The next rebound depends on significant problems in Brazilian sugar production [12][13]. - The cotton price is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term. Although there are some positive factors, there is a lack of strong driving force for continuous rebound [15][16]. - The egg price is expected to be weakly stable in many places, and the futures market should consider a strategy of selling on rebounds [18][20]. - The domestic pig price may rise in the north and remain stable in the south. Different trading strategies are recommended for near - term and far - term contracts [22][23]. 3. Summary by Category Soybean/Meal - **Market Situation**: US soybeans declined slightly on Thursday. The domestic soybean meal futures dropped significantly, and the spot price fell by about 30 yuan/ton. The domestic soybean meal inventory accumulation pressure increased, and there were rumors that feed mills were trying to purchase Argentine soybean meal [2]. - **Weather**: The US soybean - producing areas are expected to have favorable rainfall in the next two weeks, covering most of the producing areas [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to buy on dips at the lower end of the cost range of 2850 - 3020 yuan/ton for far - month contracts such as 09. Pay attention to the USDA area report on the night of next Monday [5]. Oil - **Export and Production Data**: Malaysia's palm oil export volume increased in June, and the production showed a mixed trend. The US soybean export net sales decreased in the week ending June 19 [7]. - **Policy**: Malaysia established a special committee to respond to the EU zero - deforestation law. The EPA policy is positive for the oil market [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: The oil market should be viewed as volatile. Although there are some positive factors, the upside space is limited [10]. Sugar - **Market Data**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price continued to rebound on Thursday. The spot price of sugar in various regions increased. The number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports and the quantity of sugar decreased [12]. - **Trading Strategy**: The domestic sugar price is likely to continue to decline in a volatile manner. The next rebound depends on significant problems in Brazilian sugar production [13]. Cotton - **Market Data**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to rise on Thursday. The spot price also increased. The average predicted US cotton planting area in 2025 decreased by 12.94% compared to 2024 [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: The cotton price is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term. Although there are some positive factors, there is a lack of strong driving force for continuous rebound [16]. Egg - **Market Data**: The national egg price was mostly stable with a few declines. The supply was generally sufficient, and the digestion speed was average [18]. - **Trading Strategy**: The egg price is expected to be weakly stable in many places, and the futures market should consider a strategy of selling on rebounds [20]. Pig - **Market Data**: The domestic pig price generally rose on the previous day. The northern market had a faster sales speed, and the southern market had less momentum in price increases [22]. - **Trading Strategy**: For near - term contracts such as 07 and 09, it is recommended to buy on dips before delivery. For far - term contracts such as 11 and 01, wait to sell on rebounds [23].

Group 1: Inflation and Consumption Dynamics - The likelihood of experiencing simultaneous goods inflation and service deflation is low, as historical data shows no such occurrence in the U.S. since 1947[3][4][26] - From 1993 to 2024, the share of actual consumption of goods in the U.S. is projected to rise from 27.5% to 34%, while the share of services is expected to decline from 72.5% to 66%[3][4] - Service prices exhibit greater rigidity compared to goods prices, making service deflation unlikely even during economic downturns[4][18][26] Group 2: Wholesale and Retail Profit Margins - The markup in the U.S. wholesale and retail sectors is high, with 14 out of 23 industries having markups greater than 30%[5][29] - However, the profit margins in these sectors are lower than those in other private industries, with operating surplus to total output at 25.2% compared to 25.4% for the private sector overall[5][29] - S&P 500 retail companies show lower average gross and net profit margins (38% and 8.2%, respectively) compared to the overall index averages (45.5% and 22.2%) [6][35] Group 3: Inventory and Import Dynamics - The inventory-to-sales ratio in the U.S. remains low, with most industries having a ratio of only 1-2 months[7][43] - In Q1 2025, the U.S. experienced a significant increase in imports, with an annualized rate of approximately $3.31 trillion, marking a 50.9% quarter-over-quarter increase[7][36] - The wholesale sector showed the most significant inventory replenishment, with an average quarter-over-quarter growth of 0.6%[7][36] Group 4: Corporate Responses to Tariffs - A majority of U.S. manufacturers (87%) indicated they would need to raise prices in response to tariff costs, with 76% of manufacturers and retailers choosing to pass on costs to consumers[10][48] - Adjustments in supply chains and pricing strategies are the primary responses to tariffs, with significant differences noted between U.S. and Chinese companies[10][53] Group 5: Historical Context of Tariffs - Current tariffs may lead to overall rates that are comparable to or exceed those of the early 1930s, but the economic context differs significantly from that period[11][57] - The 1930 tariff led to deflation rather than inflation, contrasting with the potential inflationary effects of current tariffs[11][57]