全球铜库存简介 02 2.1全球铜库存介绍 库存为影响铜价的重要指标，本文分别从全球铜库存水平及趋势变化角度来探究其与铜价的联系。铜价与库销比、库存净变化、注销仓 单比例变化的三个回归模型中，库销比模型显著性最高，对中长期铜价变化的解释力度更强，能够较好地反映当前铜价所处的位置（高 估或低估）；而库存净变化、注销仓单比例变化更侧重于反映短期库存趋势，对短期铜价强弱的指示性较强。 基于上述回归结果，我们构建了基于库销比、库存净变化、注销仓单比例变化的交易策略。库销比策略持有时长为3-12个月，交易胜率 及收益率均表现较好，当铜价相对于长期回归线有显著折扣时买入，或可产生可观的正向远期回报。库存净变化和注销仓单比例变化策 略持有时长为5-60天，胜率及收益率低于库销比策略，但整体胜率仍在50%以上，平均收益率也为正。 引言 01 库存为影响铜价的重要指标之一，交易所定期发布的库存与仓单数据备受市场关注。2025年12月2日，摩科瑞、托克等海外机构在LME一 次性提取超额铜库存，LME单日注销仓单达5.69万吨，环比增加803%，创2013年以来的单日最大增幅。在上述逼仓FOMO情绪下，国内 铜价站上90000元/ ...

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货豆菜粕年报 南美大豆大概率增产 豆菜粕或宽幅震荡为主 20251215 邓丹 交易咨询号：Z0011401 从业资格号：F0300922 0769-22111252 审核：姜世东 从业资格号：F03126164 交易咨询号：Z0020059 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 年度观点及策略 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 基本面观点 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 ◆ 供给端，预计2026年南美大豆大概率增产，但仍要关注拉尼娜对巴西南部和阿根廷的影响。美豆25/26年度的 库销比仍处于历史低位，支撑美豆价格，且美豆单产和出口仍有调整的可能，预计美豆价 ...

Core Viewpoint - Li Ning's performance in H1 2025 exceeded market expectations, with revenue growth driven by wholesale channels and professional products, despite challenges in certain categories [1][2] Financial Performance - In H1 2025, Li Ning achieved revenue of 14.82 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.74 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.0% [1] - The company plans to distribute an interim dividend of 870 million yuan, with a payout ratio of 50% [1] Channel Performance - Revenue from direct sales, wholesale, and e-commerce channels in H1 2025 was 3.38 billion yuan (-3%), 6.88 billion yuan (+4%), and 4.30 billion yuan (+7%) respectively, aligning with overall sales growth [1] - The running and training categories saw significant growth, each increasing by 15% year-on-year, while basketball and lifestyle categories continued to decline, with decreases of 20% and 7% respectively [1] Operational Metrics - Gross margin in H1 2025 was 50.0%, a slight decrease of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to deeper discounts and a slight increase in e-commerce sales proportion [1] - Operating profit margin (OPM) was 16.5%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year, but still above market expectations [1] - Advertising and marketing expenses increased by 0.3 percentage points to 9.0% of revenue, with higher spending anticipated in H2 2025 [1] Product and Inventory Management - The inventory turnover ratio remained stable at approximately 4 months, with new products accounting for 82% of sales, a slight decrease of 1 percentage point year-on-year [2] - Professional products contributed over 60% to revenue, with improved discount rates and a sell-through rate maintained between 70%-80% [2] Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 2.59 billion yuan, 2.77 billion yuan, and 2.99 billion yuan for the years 2025-2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 17, 16, and 15 times [2] - Increased brand promotion efforts are anticipated to seek growth amidst intensifying competition, with potential recovery in the basketball category due to new product launches [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural products sector shows different trends: oilseeds and oils are in a strong - side oscillation, oils and by - products maintain an oscillatory trend, soft commodities like sugar have a slight oscillation, cotton's bullish rise has declined, and grains such as corn and starch are in a weak and narrow - range consolidation [2]. - It is recommended to construct option portfolio strategies mainly based on sellers, as well as spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The latest prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest of various agricultural product futures are presented, including soybeans, soybean meal, palm oil, etc. For example, the latest price of soybean No.1 (A2511) is 4,056 with no change, and its trading volume is 8.83 million lots [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume and open interest PCR of different agricultural product options are provided, which are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market respectively. For instance, the volume PCR of soybean No.1 option is 0.32, with a change of - 0.14 [4]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of different agricultural product options are given, which are determined by the strike prices of the maximum open interest of call and put options. For example, the pressure level of soybean No.1 is 4500, and the support level is 4100 [5]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility data of different agricultural product options are presented, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and its change. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of soybean No.1 is 11.985%, and the weighted implied volatility is 14.43% with a change of - 1.72% [6]. 3.5 Option Strategies and Recommendations 3.5.1 Oilseeds and Oils Options - **Soybean No.1 and No.2**: The fundamentals of soybeans are affected by factors such as USDA's adjustment of planting area and yield, and Trump's call for China to buy soybeans. The option strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [7]. - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal**: The fundamentals of soybean meal are related to the monthly purchase volume. The option strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9]. - **Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, and Rapeseed Oil**: The fundamentals of oils are affected by USDA's reports and India's inventory replenishment. The option strategies include constructing a bullish call spread strategy, a long - biased call + put option combination strategy, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. - **Peanuts**: The fundamentals of peanuts are related to the spot price, import volume, and oil mill operation rate. The option strategies include constructing a bearish put spread strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. 3.5.2 By - product Options - **Pigs**: The supply of pigs is relatively loose, and the demand is stimulated by low prices. The option strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a covered call strategy for spot [11]. - **Eggs**: The inventory of laying hens is expected to increase. The option strategies include constructing a bearish put spread strategy and a short - biased call + put option combination strategy [12]. - **Apples**: The cold - storage inventory of apples is at a low level. The option strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination strategy [12]. - **Red Dates**: The inventory of red dates is decreasing, and the market is improving. The option strategies include constructing a bullish call spread strategy, a long - biased wide - straddle option combination strategy, and a covered call strategy for spot [13]. 3.5.3 Soft Commodity Options - **Sugar**: The fundamentals of sugar are affected by Brazil's sugar production data. The option strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [13]. - **Cotton**: The fundamentals of cotton are related to the operating rates of spinning and weaving mills and global production. The option strategies include constructing a long - biased call + put option combination strategy and a covered call strategy for spot [14]. 3.5.4 Grain Options - **Corn and Starch**: The fundamentals of corn are affected by USDA's planting area and yield adjustment. The option strategies include constructing a bearish put spread strategy and a short - biased call + put option combination strategy [14]. 3.6 Option Charts - Charts of various agricultural product options are provided, including price trend charts, volume and open interest charts, implied volatility charts, etc., to visually display the market conditions of different agricultural product options [15][34][53].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The agricultural product options market shows diversified trends. Oilseeds and oils are in a relatively strong and volatile state, while some agricultural by - products and soft commodities are in a volatile or weak state. - The recommended strategy is to construct an option portfolio strategy mainly based on sellers, as well as spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - Different agricultural product futures have different price changes. For example, the latest price of soybean No.1 (A2511) is 4,068, up 24 with a growth rate of 0.59%, while the price of corn (C2511) is 2,187, down 5 with a decline rate of 0.23% [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume and open interest PCR of different options vary. For example, the volume PCR of soybean No.1 is 0.47, down 0.07, and the open interest PCR is 0.37, up 0.01, which can be used to analyze the strength and turning points of the option underlying market [4]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - From the perspective of the maximum open interest of call and put options, the pressure and support levels of different options are determined. For example, the pressure level of soybean No.1 is 4,500 and the support level is 4,100 [5]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of different options also shows different characteristics. For example, the weighted implied volatility of soybean No.1 is 16.15%, up 1.00%, and the difference between implied and historical volatility is 0.12 [6]. 3.5 Strategy and Recommendations 3.5.1 Oilseeds and Oils Options - **Soybean No.1 and No.2**: The fundamentals of soybeans are affected by factors such as USDA's adjustment of planting area and yield, and the market shows a volatile pattern. Options strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [7]. - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal**: The market of soybean meal shows a pattern of weak consolidation and then rebound. Options strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9]. - **Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, and Rapeseed Oil**: The fundamentals of oils are affected by factors such as USDA's report and India's replenishment. Palm oil shows a bullish trend. Options strategies include constructing a bull spread combination strategy for calls and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. - **Peanuts**: The peanut market shows a pattern of weak consolidation under bearish pressure. Options strategies include constructing a bear spread combination strategy for puts and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. 3.5.2 Agricultural By - products Options - **Pigs**: The supply of pigs is relatively loose, and the demand is stimulated by low prices. The market shows a weak consolidation pattern. Options strategies include constructing a bearish call + put option combination strategy and a covered call strategy for spot [11]. - **Eggs**: The inventory of laying hens is expected to increase, and the market shows a bearish pattern. Options strategies include constructing a bear spread combination strategy for puts and a bearish call + put option combination strategy [12]. - **Apples**: The cold - storage inventory of apples is at a low level, and the market shows a pattern of continuous recovery. Options strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination strategy [12]. - **Red Dates**: The inventory of red dates is decreasing, and the market shows a short - term bullish pattern. Options strategies include constructing a bull spread combination strategy for calls and a wide - straddle option combination strategy [13]. 3.5.3 Soft Commodities Options - **Sugar**: The production of sugar in Brazil shows a decline, and the market shows a bearish pattern. Options strategies include constructing a bearish call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [13]. - **Cotton**: The开机 rate of spinning and weaving factories is relatively low, and the market shows a short - term weak pattern. Options strategies include constructing a bullish call + put option combination strategy and a covered call strategy for spot [14]. 3.5.4 Grains Options - **Corn and Starch**: The planting area and yield of corn are expected to increase, and the market shows a weak pattern. Options strategies include constructing a bear spread combination strategy for puts and a bearish call + put option combination strategy [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - USDA significantly reduced the soybean planting area, with the US soybean production decreasing by 1.08 million tons month - on - month. In the short term, it is bullish for CBOT soybeans. However, given the global oversupply of protein raw materials, the upward momentum of soybean import costs is insufficient. Currently, due to the low valuation of US soybeans, the positive impact of EPA policies, and the sole supply of soybeans from Brazil from September to January, it is expected to maintain a stable and slightly upward trend. - The domestic soybean meal market is still in a seasonal oversupply situation, and it is expected that the spot market may start destocking in September. Therefore, the soybean meal market has both bullish and bearish factors. It is recommended to try long positions at the lower end of the soybean meal cost range, pay attention to crushing margins and supply pressure at the upper end, and focus on the progress of Sino - US tariffs and new drivers on the supply side [9][10][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **International Soybeans**: This week, USDA lowered the US soybean planting area by about 2.5 million acres. Farmers switched to corn due to the decline in fertilizer prices. After the yield per unit was increased, the total production decreased by about 1 million tons month - on - month. The inventory - to - sales ratio of US soybeans in the 25/26 season dropped from 7.06% to 6.66%, and that of global soybeans in the 25/26 season decreased from 29.65% to 29.38%. Trump called on China to buy soybeans, and US soybeans rose due to these two factors. The Brazilian premium quotes remained firm as there was no actual soybean trade between China and the US, and the soybean import cost increased significantly this week. In the future, the valuation of US soybeans is at a low level, and Brazilian soybean quotes are supported by China's vessel bookings and Sino - US trade relations. If Sino - US soybean trade resumes later, the rebound of US soybeans and the decline of Brazilian premiums may offset each other. Overall, the overseas soybean market is in a state of low valuation, support, and oversupply, with no clear directional driver yet, but the domestic soybean import cost is in a slightly stronger and stable state due to a single supply source. - **Domestic Double - Meal**: This week, the domestic soybean meal spot prices mainly followed the futures prices higher. The increase in soybean import costs drove the soybean meal futures to strengthen. This week, domestic trading was average, and提货 was at a relatively high level. The inventory days of feed enterprises were 8.35 days, slightly higher than the same period last year and down 0.02 days month - on - month. As of August 12, institutional statistics showed that vessel bookings were 13.79 million tons in March, 10.29 million tons in April, 11.81 million tons in May, 12.72 million tons in June, 10.69 million tons in July, 9.17 million tons in August, 8.31 million tons in September, and 4.23 million tons in October. The current vessel - booking progress indicates that the domestic soybean inventory may decline around the end of September, and domestic soybean - related prices may bottom out and fluctuate before that. In the future, attention should be paid to Sino - US negotiations and Brazilian premium information [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the unilateral strategy, the market is expected to be volatile. Given the bullish and bearish factors in the soybean meal market, it is recommended to try long positions at the lower end of the soybean meal cost range, pay attention to crushing margins and supply pressure at the upper end, and focus on the progress of Sino - US tariffs and new drivers on the supply side. No information on the arbitrage strategy was provided [11]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Spot Prices**: Included charts of the spot prices of soybean meal in Dongguan, Guangdong and rapeseed meal in Huangpu, Guangdong to show the price trends [17][18]. - **Basis of Main Contracts**: Included charts of the basis of the soybean meal 09 contract and the rapeseed meal 09 contract to show the basis trends [20][21]. - **Spreads**: Included charts of various spreads such as the soybean meal 09 - 01 spread, soybean meal 09 - rapeseed meal 09 spread, etc., to show the spread trends [22][23]. - **Fund Positioning**: Included charts of the net long positions of US soybean and US soybean meal managed funds to show the fund positioning trends [25][27][28]. 3.3. Supply Side - **US Soybean Planting Progress**: Included charts of the US soybean planting progress, emergence rate, flowering rate, and good - to - excellent rate to show the growth situation of US soybeans [30][31]. - **Weather Conditions**: Mentioned that La Nina may occur from October 2025 to January, and included charts related to El Nino outlook, La Nina probability, and the impact of La Nina on precipitation and climate in North America and South America [33][36][39]. - **US Soybean Export Progress**: Included charts of the total export contracts of US soybeans to China in the current market year, the sales completion rate of US soybeans in the current year, the total export contracts of US soybeans in the current market year, and the cumulative export shipments of US soybeans to China in the current market year to show the export situation of US soybeans [50][51]. - **China's Oilseed Imports**: Included charts of the monthly imports and forecasts of soybeans and rapeseeds in China to show China's oilseed import situation [53][54]. - **China's Oil Mill Crushing Situation**: Included charts of the soybean and rapeseed crushing volumes of major oil mills in China to show the crushing situation of Chinese oil mills [55][56]. 3.4. Profit and Inventory - **Oilseed Inventory**: Included charts of the soybean port inventory and the rapeseed inventory of major oil mills in China to show the oilseed inventory situation [59][60]. - **Protein Meal Inventory**: Included charts of the soybean meal inventory and forecast of coastal major oil mills and the rapeseed meal inventory of coastal major oil mills to show the protein meal inventory situation [62][63]. - **Protein Meal Crushing Profit**: Included charts of the crushing profit of imported soybeans in Guangdong and the crushing profit of imported rapeseeds along the coast to show the protein meal crushing profit situation [64][65]. 3.5. Demand Side - **Soybean Meal Demand**: Included charts of the cumulative transaction volume of soybean meal in major oil mills in the crop year and the apparent consumption of soybean meal to show the demand situation of soybean meal [66][67]. - **Breeding Profit**: Included charts of the average profit per pig in self - breeding and self - raising and the breeding profit of white - feather broilers to show the breeding profit situation [69][70].

Group 1 - The SP2509 contract experienced significant volatility in July, rising from 5080 points to a peak of 5560 points, an increase of 9.4%, followed by a decline of 6.1% in the last week [1] - The macroeconomic factors are driving the market more than the fundamentals, as indicated by the stable pulp spot market and weakening basis [1] - Global economic indicators, such as Citigroup's Global Surprise Index, have remained above zero this year, with most data exceeding expectations [1] Group 2 - In June, China's social financing increased by 4.20 trillion yuan, marking seven consecutive months of year-on-year growth, supporting the logic of a strong macroeconomic environment [1] - The supply of hardwood pulp has decreased compared to softwood pulp, while downstream consumption continues to rise, indicating a better fundamental outlook for hardwood pulp [1] - The price spread between hardwood and softwood pulp is expected to narrow from -174 points to -1211 points by the second half of 2024, reflecting an improvement in hardwood pulp fundamentals [1] Group 3 - The softwood pulp supply side is underperforming, with a sales-to-inventory ratio of 0.92 in Europe for June, leading to seven consecutive months of inventory accumulation [1] - Domestic imports of softwood wood chips and pulp reached 793,000 tons in June, marking a marginal increase for seven consecutive months, which negatively impacts SP valuations [1] - The domestic paper industry is facing ongoing operational pressures, with total profits decreasing by 21.4% year-on-year in June and total losses increasing by 29.8% year-on-year [1] Group 4 - In May, electricity consumption in the paper industry was 846 million kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year decrease of 2.1%, falling below the average of 875 million kilowatt-hours for the previous year [1] - By the end of July, the paper industry issued an anti-involution initiative, aiming to reduce finished paper production, limit wood pulp capacity expansion, and improve the quality of finished paper [1] - Overall, the market fundamentals are considered average [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - External soybean market: The valuation of US soybeans and soybean meal is at a low level. The Brazilian soybean quote is supported by Chinese vessel purchases and Sino - US trade relations. The external soybean market is in a state of low valuation with support and oversupply, lacking a clear directional driver. The domestic soybean import cost is in a state of small - amplitude upward oscillation due to a single supply source [9]. - Domestic double - meal market: The domestic soybean meal spot price fluctuated with the futures this week. The Sino - US negotiation not involving soybeans provided some support, but previous soybean meal vessel purchases and the information of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs promoting the reduction of soybean meal consumption may continue to suppress the valuation. The domestic market had good transactions this week, and the提货 was at a relatively high level. The soybean inventory in China may decline around the end of September, and the domestic soybean - related prices may bottom out and oscillate before that. The soybean meal market is a mix of long and short factors. It is recommended to try long positions at the low end of the cost range and pay attention to crushing margins and supply pressure at the high end, waiting for progress in Sino - US tariffs and new drivers from the supply side. For arbitrage, pay attention to widening the spread of the soybean meal - rapeseed meal 09 contract [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **International Soybeans**: US soybeans were weakly declining this week due to good weather bringing harvest pressure and the lack of positive impact on US soybean exports from Sino - US negotiations. The USDA August monthly report may maintain the July report's inventory - to - sales ratio of 7.06% for US soybeans in the 25/26 season and 29.65% for global soybeans in the 25/26 season [9]. - **Domestic Double - Meal**: The domestic soybean meal spot price fluctuated with the futures. The Sino - US negotiation not involving soybeans provided support, but previous vessel purchases and the promotion of reduced soybean meal consumption may suppress the valuation. As of the end of last week, the inventory days of feed enterprises slightly decreased to 8.05 days, slightly higher than the same period last year. The vessel purchase schedule indicates that the domestic soybean inventory may decline around the end of September [9]. - **Strategies**: In the soybean meal market, try long positions at the low end of the cost range and pay attention to crushing margins and supply pressure at the high end, waiting for Sino - US tariff progress and new supply - side drivers. For arbitrage, widen the spread of the soybean meal - rapeseed meal 09 contract [9][10][11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Spot Prices**: There are charts showing the spot prices of soybean meal in Dongguan, Guangdong and rapeseed meal in Huangpu, Guangdong [17][18]. - **Basis of Main Contracts**: There are charts showing the basis of the soybean meal 09 contract and the rapeseed meal 09 contract [20][21]. - **Spreads**: There are charts showing spreads such as the soybean meal 09 - 01 spread, soybean meal 09 - rapeseed meal 09 spread, etc. [23][24]. - **Fund Positions**: There are charts showing the net long positions of US soybean and US soybean meal managed funds [26][28]. 3.3 Supply Side - **US Soybean Planting Progress**: There are charts showing the US soybean planting progress, emergence rate, flowering rate, and excellent - good rate [32][33]. - **Weather Conditions**: There are charts showing the weighted precipitation in US soybean - producing areas and Canadian rapeseed - producing areas, and there is a possibility of La Nina occurring from October 2025 to January [35][38]. - **US Soybean Export Progress**: There are charts showing the total export contracts of US soybeans to China in the current market year, the sales completion rate, etc. [52][53]. - **China's Oilseed Imports**: There are charts showing China's monthly soybean and rapeseed imports and forecasts [55][56]. - **China's Oil Mill Crushing**: There are charts showing the soybean and rapeseed crushing volumes of major oil mills [57][58]. 3.4 Profit and Inventory - **Oilseed Inventory**: There are charts showing the soybean port inventory and the rapeseed inventory of major oil mills [61][62]. - **Protein Meal Inventory**: There are charts showing the soybean meal inventory and forecast of coastal major oil mills and the rapeseed meal inventory of coastal major oil mills [64][65]. - **Protein Meal Crushing Profit**: There are charts showing the crushing profits of imported soybeans in Guangdong and imported rapeseed along the coast [66][67]. 3.5 Demand Side - **Soybean Meal Demand**: There are charts showing the cumulative transaction volume of soybean meal in major oil mills in the crop year and the apparent consumption of soybean meal [68][69]. - **Breeding Profit**: There are charts showing the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising pigs and the breeding profit of white - feather broilers [71][72].

Group 1: Corn Market Insights - The global corn supply-demand gap is widening, with a decreasing global corn stock-to-use ratio, which is favorable for international corn prices [1] - For the 2025/26 season, global corn production is projected at 126.4 million tons, an increase of 38.36 million tons from the previous year, while consumption is expected to reach 127.6 million tons, an increase of 18.95 million tons [2] - The ending stock for corn is forecasted at 27.2 million tons, a decrease of 12.1 million tons year-on-year, with a stock-to-use ratio of 18.5%, the lowest since the 2014/15 season [2] Group 2: Wheat Market Insights - Global wheat production for the 2025/26 season is estimated at 80.9 million tons, an increase of 8.63 million tons from the previous year, while consumption is expected to rise to 81.1 million tons, an increase of 5.14 million tons [3] - The ending stock for wheat is projected at 26.2 million tons, a decrease of 2.07 million tons year-on-year, with a stock-to-use ratio of 25.5%, the lowest since the 2015/16 season [3] Group 3: Soybean Market Insights - For the 2025/26 season, global soybean production is forecasted at 42.8 million tons, an increase of 5.68 million tons from the previous year, while consumption is expected to reach 42.5 million tons, an increase of 16.13 million tons [4] - The ending stock for soybeans is projected at 12.6 million tons, an increase of 0.95 million tons year-on-year, with a stock-to-use ratio of 20.6% [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Views - In Q2 2025, the main brand's offline retail revenue recorded approximately 10% growth, while the children's clothing brand also saw about 10% growth. E-commerce platforms experienced around 20% growth [2][3] - The company continues to introduce new products to meet diverse consumer demands and has expanded its super stores to 49 locations, with stable inventory and discount levels [3][5] Summary by Relevant Sections Revenue Growth - In Q2 2025, adult apparel offline revenue grew approximately 10%, children's apparel offline revenue also grew about 10%, and e-commerce revenue increased by around 20%, although the growth rate has slowed compared to previous quarters [4][5] Product Development - The company is actively launching competitive new products in various categories, including running shoes and basketball shoes. Notable new releases include the FUTURE 2 and Q弹超 6 running shoes, and the 禅 7 basketball shoes [5] Channel Expansion - The number of super stores has expanded to 49, with 39 new stores opened in Q2. The stores focus on comprehensive category coverage and a one-stop shopping experience, with an expected total of 80-100 new stores for the year [5][6] Inventory and Discount Management - The inventory-to-sales ratio remains stable at 4.5-5.0, with retail discounts around 71%, showing no significant year-on-year change and a slight increase quarter-on-quarter [6] Financial Forecast - The company maintains its profit forecast, expecting net profits of 1.3 billion, 1.46 billion, and 1.63 billion yuan for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 13.1%, 12.2%, and 11.8% respectively. The target price is maintained at 4.7-5.4 HKD, corresponding to a PE ratio of 7-8x for 2025 [8][9]