Core Insights - The report from Dongfang Securities indicates a significant year-on-year increase in China's pesticide formulation exports, driven not only by cyclical inventory replenishment but also by structural changes in the end-market, presenting opportunities for Chinese companies to reshape the global agricultural chemical value chain [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The global agricultural chemical industry has nearly completed a two-year inventory destocking cycle, showing potential for bottom recovery, particularly with Brazil's demand recovery contributing marginally [1]. - Brazil, as the largest agricultural market globally, has faced adverse weather conditions affecting crop yields, but improvements in weather and planting area are expected to boost soybean and corn production by approximately 15% year-on-year for the 2024/25 planting year [1]. - The recovery in demand has led to a year-on-year increase in China's pesticide formulation exports and a correction in some raw material prices that had previously declined due to weak supply and demand [1]. Group 2: Structural Changes in the Market - The share of traditional multinational companies in Brazil's pesticide market has decreased from 80% to 70%, while the share of medium and large local companies and other multinationals has increased, primarily focusing on pesticide formulations [2]. - Many distributors and cooperatives in Brazil, which previously relied on local importers, are now turning to direct imports, further driving the increase in China's formulation exports [2]. Group 3: Growth Opportunities for Chinese Companies - The changes in the end-market structure validate the perspective that local operators are seeking to break free from the monopoly of traditional multinationals, allowing them to choose suppliers independently [3]. - This shift is expected to benefit Chinese companies that can quickly adapt to market demands, positioning them to seize growth opportunities in the agricultural chemical sector [3].

看好我国农药制剂出海企业的增长机遇 见微知著，终端市场主体结构的变化也一定程度验证了该行前期润丰股份深度报告对全球农化价值链重 塑的观点。即本土经营者希望摆脱传统跨国公司的垄断去自主选择供应商，而打破垄断格局下的价值泡 沫也是终端种植者喜闻乐见的变局;让农化产品回归生产资料，让农民获得更多价值。这一格局重塑的 背景下，在终端市场能够快速满足需求迭代的中国企业有望把握增长的先机。 全球农化产业链历经两年多的去库周期基本完结，具备底部复苏潜力。尤其作为全球最大的农化市场 国，巴西的需求复苏将带来较大边际拉动。23/24种植年巴西因为局部干旱和洪涝等极端天气影响导致 作物减产，叠加粮食价格下跌，农民收入预期下滑并打压农资采购和现金支付意愿，恶化的需求也传导 至上游渠道和工厂端。而今年以来，随着巴西天气条件改善及其长周期种植面积的持续提升，巴西国家 供应公司(CONAB)今年多次上调了24/25年巴西大豆玉米的产量预期，预计产量同比增幅都在15%左 右。同时CBOT粮食期货结算价在今年销售季也基本企稳，农民收入预期得到改善，推动产业链各环节 的需求复苏。需求压制的解除推动了我国农药制剂出口量的同比增长及部分原药价格在 ...