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日本和美国国债市场动荡,或引发全球利率走高
Hua Xia Shi Bao· 2025-05-29 07:40
Group 1 - The auction results for Japan's 40-year government bonds showed a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.21, the lowest since July 2024, with a maximum yield of 3.1350% [2] - Following the auction, yields on Japanese government bonds across various maturities rose significantly, with the 10-year yield increasing by 6.5 basis points to 1.525% and the 30-year yield rising by 10 basis points to 2.93% [2] - The results of Japan's 20-year bond auction on May 20 indicated a bid-to-cover ratio of only 2.5, the lowest since 2012, leading to a surge in yields for newly issued 30-year and 40-year bonds [2] Group 2 - The yield on 20-year U.S. government bonds exceeded 5%, marking one of the worst performances in five years, which heightened concerns about rising debt levels [3] - The yield on the 30-year U.S. government bonds surged to 5.1%, nearing a 20-year high, while the 10-year yield reached 4.595% [3] - Japan's government debt-to-GDP ratio exceeds 250%, and rising yields significantly increase borrowing costs, which could lead to higher global borrowing costs [3] Group 3 - The increase in bond yields in both Japan and the U.S. suggests that government borrowing may become more challenging, reflecting the high levels of government debt in these countries [5] - The U.S. House of Representatives passed a bill that would increase the federal debt ceiling by $4 trillion, potentially leading to a $3.3 trillion increase in U.S. debt over the next decade [5] - Japan's fiscal situation is reportedly worse than Greece's, as indicated by comments from political figures, which has influenced the bond market [5] Group 4 - Global economic conditions, including trade wars and inflation expectations, are contributing to rising interest rates, with Japan experiencing rapid economic recovery despite fiscal challenges [6] - European countries, including Germany, are expected to expand fiscal policies to reduce dependence on the U.S., which may also lead to increased global interest rates [6] - China's economic recovery remains uncertain, necessitating fiscal expansion, which could further influence global interest rate trends [6]