Core Viewpoint - The international precious metals market continues to exhibit volatile "roller coaster" trends in 2026, with gold prices experiencing significant fluctuations driven by geopolitical risks, monetary policy expectations, and speculative capital [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - In January, the London spot gold price surged from $4,500/oz to a historical peak of $5,598.75/oz, marking a monthly increase of over 24% [1]. - By the end of January, gold experienced a sharp decline, with a single-day drop of 9%, the largest since 1980, reaching a low of $4,440/oz [1]. - As of February 4, gold prices rebounded, surpassing $5,050/oz, indicating a quick recovery in market sentiment [1]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - Geopolitical risks and uncertainties, such as tensions between the U.S. and Iran, have significantly contributed to the rising prices of gold and silver [2]. - In 2025, global gold investment demand reached a record 2,175 tons, with a net increase of 801 tons in gold ETF holdings, particularly in the SPDR Gold Shares, which reached approximately 1,085 tons by January 16 [2]. - Market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve may initiate a rate-cutting cycle, with a 78% probability of two rate cuts within the year, enhancing gold's appeal as a "non-yielding asset" [2]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - On February 3, gold prices recorded the largest single-day increase since November 2008, with the relative strength index (RSI) rebounding above 50, indicating a return to rational market sentiment [3]. - Major investment banks, including JPMorgan and Deutsche Bank, have raised their gold price targets, with Deutsche Bank reaffirming a target of $6,000/oz [3]. - JPMorgan Private Bank has set a target of $6,150/oz by the end of 2026, driven by emerging market central banks increasing their gold reserves [3]. Group 4: Valuation Perspective - Current gold prices remain within a reasonable range, with a structural change in valuation frameworks as gold's "monetary attributes" gain importance [4]. - UBS suggests that if geopolitical risks escalate sharply, gold prices could reach $7,200/oz within the year, while a stable Fed policy could see a downward target of $4,600/oz [4]. - The total value of existing gold is approximately $38.2 trillion, comparable to the total U.S. Treasury debt of $38.5 trillion, indicating gold's enhanced status in the global monetary system [4]. Group 5: Risks and Market Dynamics - Short-term volatility risks are pronounced, with profit-taking and quantitative selling pressures creating a feedback loop of selling [5]. - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy expectations are fluctuating, with potential impacts on gold prices as market anticipations shift [6]. - A temporary easing of geopolitical risks, such as renewed nuclear negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, may lead to a shift in market sentiment away from gold towards equities [6]. Group 6: Long-term Outlook - The ongoing "de-dollarization" process and the structural demand for gold from global central banks, along with the anticipated Fed rate cuts, continue to support the long-term outlook for gold [7].