（1）海外经济 经济数据上：高频数据显示美国经济增长动能维持韧性，就业市场仍有韧性，房地产市场基本持平。增 长方面，亚特兰大联储GDPNow指示美国三季度GDP增速上行至4.2%。消费方面，上周实际个人消费 季比折年增速的Nowcast持平于3.4%，Redbook零售指数指示11月美国零售同比小幅上升。就业市场方 面，周度首申人数由前值23.9万人降至21.7万人，好于预期（彭博一致预期，下同），但续申人数上升 0.7万人至173万人。地产方面，30年期固定房贷利率上行至6.3%，房贷申请量略有下降，Redfin房屋销 售量基本符合季节性水平。 9月美国非农数据喜忧参半。一方面，9月美国新增非农就业人数11.9万人，大超市场预期（5.1万人）； 对就业市场走势具有一定前瞻性的每周平均时长维持在34.2小时，没有进一步下降；长期失业人群（27 周以上）占比有所回落。但另一方面，失业率在劳动参与率回升的影响下，进一步上升至4.4%，高于 市场预期（4.3%）；9月非农就业的增长仍集中在教育、医疗保健业、休闲和酒店业，增长基础并不广 泛。10月非农就业数据真空期内，民间数据的走弱一度引发市场对美国就业市场的担忧。 ...

【宏观】美联储内部分歧仍大 全球大类资产表现。 本周（2025.11.17-2025.11.23），多数资产价格均有明显下跌，大宗商品方面， IPE布油期货下跌2.8%。标普-高盛商品指数下跌 2.2%，COMEX铜下跌1.1%,，伦敦金现下跌0.4%，幅度相对较小。 主要经济体股市普遍下跌，其中，恒生指数下跌5.1%，幅度最大。 上证综指下跌3.9%，日经225指数下跌3.5%，标普500指数下跌1.9%。新兴市场股票指 数下跌3.0%，跌幅大于发达市场股票指数（下跌2.0%）。债市方面，10年期美债收益率较前一周回落8BP至4.06%，国内10Y国债期货价格与上周持平，中 债总全价指数下跌0.1%。外汇市场方面，美元指数较前一周回升，报收100.15，人民币兑美元贬值0.1%，日元兑美元贬值1.2%。 经济： 美国方面：9月美国非农数据喜忧参半，新增非农就业大超预期但失业率进一步回升至4.4%。房地产方面，成屋销售同比与环比增速均有所回落；截 至11月15日当周，美国首次申请失业金人数维持稳定。市场交易层面5年期通胀预期较上周回落6BP至2.32%，10年期通胀预期回落4BP至2.24%。 欧洲方面： 1 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices experienced a rebound after a recent decline, driven by geopolitical tensions, weakening dollar credit, and central bank gold purchases, despite uncertainties surrounding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Gold prices fell below $4,000 but rebounded, with gold stocks ETF rising nearly 2% and the Hua Xia Gold ETF increasing by 1.2% [1] - COMEX gold saw a four-day decline, totaling a 3.4% drop, before a V-shaped reversal occurred, with spot gold and New York futures both surpassing $4,080 [1] - The recent market correction was attributed to overbought conditions and tightening liquidity, with COMEX gold experiencing a 6% decline from October 21 to November 18 [1] Group 2: Future Projections - Goldman Sachs set a gold price target of $4,440 for Q1 2026, while Morgan Stanley predicts a rise to $4,500 by mid-2026 [1] - Despite uncertainties regarding the Federal Reserve's December rate cut, the initiation of a rate-cutting cycle remains unchanged, and market liquidity is expected to improve with the U.S. government reopening and the cessation of balance sheet reduction on December 1 [1] Group 3: Investment Trends - There was a significant net inflow into gold ETFs, with a net inflow of 1.777 billion yuan into the SGE gold 9999 tracking ETF, and the Hua Xia Gold ETF seeing a net inflow of 138 million yuan over 14 consecutive trading days, totaling 824 million yuan [1] - The Hua Xia Gold ETF (518850) has a low comprehensive fee rate of 0.2% and allows T+0 trading, while the gold stock ETF (159562) also has a 0.2% fee and focuses on gold and copper stocks [2]

资金更是坚定借道ETF投资黄金，昨日金价大回调的情况下，跟踪SGE黄金9999的ETF单日净流入17.77 亿元，其中黄金ETF华夏(518850)单日净流入1.38亿元，已连续14个交易日获资金净流入，累计达8.24亿 元，金价10月21日高点回调以来该ETF净流入13.76亿元。 值得关注的产品，及截至发稿涨跌幅： 黄金投资"利器"：黄金ETF华夏(518850)，+1.29%，跟踪SGE黄金9999指数，综合费率为0.2%，属于同 类最低，可t+0交易。 "金价放大器"：黄金股ETF(159562)，+1.97%，跟踪SSH黄金股票，成分股以黄金、铜占主导，同时配 置白银股，综合费率为0.2%。 格隆汇11月19日｜昨日一度跌破4000美元的黄金今日反弹，带动黄金股ETF涨近2%，黄金ETF华夏涨 1.2%。 近日COMEX黄金4连跌，累计回调3.4%后，纽约尾盘上演V型反转，今日顺势反弹，现货黄金、纽约期 金双双升破4080美元。 黄金保持上涨态势的本质是地缘冲突避险+不受主权信用约束+美元信用弱化+央行持续购金+美联储开 启降息周期，近期回调是市场过度共识下的超买+流动性收紧、美联储12月降息预期回 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by various macroeconomic factors, including Federal Reserve officials' hawkish statements, the end of the U.S. government shutdown, and ongoing global uncertainties, which may support gold prices in the medium to long term [1][5][6]. Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - As of November 14, the London spot gold price closed at $4,082.16 per ounce, with a cumulative increase of $81.87 per ounce since November 7, reflecting a rise of 2.05% [1]. - Gold prices experienced volatility, reaching a high of $4,245.22 and a low of $3,997.20 during the week [1]. - The end of the U.S. government shutdown has reduced the short-term appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset [1][5]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow indicates a 4.0% growth rate for the U.S. GDP in Q3, although government shutdowns may affect data accuracy [2]. - Personal consumption growth remains stable at an annualized rate of 3.4%, with retail sales showing a slight year-on-year increase [2]. - The unemployment claims decreased slightly to 226,000, indicating a stable labor market [2]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Policy - Multiple Federal Reserve officials have expressed concerns about inflation, leading to a decrease in interest rate cut expectations for December [3]. - The probability of a rate cut in December has dropped from 70% to below 50%, influenced by internal voting tendencies within the FOMC [3]. - The Fed's decision-making process is shifting towards a more collective approach rather than being dominated by the chair [3]. Group 4: Central Bank Gold Purchases - Global central banks' gold purchases reached 220 tons in Q3 2025, a 30% increase from the previous quarter, with Brazil and South Korea showing significant buying activity [4]. - China's central bank continues to increase its gold reserves, reaching 74.09 million ounces by the end of October, marking the twelfth consecutive month of increases [4]. Group 5: Long-term Outlook for Gold - In the long term, the demand for gold as a safe asset is expected to rise due to challenges to the U.S. dollar credit system and ongoing geopolitical tensions [7]. - The trend of "de-dollarization" globally may position gold as a new pricing anchor, enhancing its upward momentum [7]. - The Fed's potential rate cut cycle, influenced by economic resilience and inflation, may extend the window for bullish gold positions [7].

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by various macroeconomic factors, including Federal Reserve officials' hawkish statements, the end of the U.S. government shutdown, and ongoing global uncertainties, which may support gold prices in the medium to long term [1][5][6]. Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - As of November 14, the London spot gold price closed at $4,082.16 per ounce, with a cumulative increase of $81.87 per ounce since November 7, representing a 2.05% rise [1]. - Gold prices experienced volatility, reaching a high of $4,245.22 and a low of $3,997.20 during the week [1]. - The end of the U.S. government shutdown has reduced the short-term appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset [1][5]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. economy shows resilience, with the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow indicating a 4.0% growth rate for Q3, although government shutdowns may affect data accuracy [2]. - Consumer spending remains stable, with a 3.4% annualized growth rate in personal consumption and a slight increase in retail sales [2]. - The employment market shows a slight decrease in initial jobless claims, indicating stability [2]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Policy - Multiple Federal Reserve officials have expressed concerns about inflation, leading to a decrease in interest rate cut expectations for December [3]. - The probability of a rate cut in December has dropped from 70% to below 50%, influenced by internal voting tendencies within the FOMC [3]. - The Fed's decision-making process is shifting towards a more collective approach rather than being dominated by the chair [3]. Group 4: Global Central Bank Gold Purchases - Global central banks continue to show strong demand for gold, with a net purchase of 220 tons in Q3 2025, a 30% increase from the previous quarter [4]. - Brazil and South Korea have made significant gold purchases, with South Korea signaling plans to increase its gold reserves for the first time since 2013 [4]. - China's central bank has also been increasing its gold reserves for twelve consecutive months, reaching 7,409 million ounces by the end of October [4]. Group 5: Long-term Outlook for Gold - In the long term, the demand for gold as a safe asset is expected to rise due to challenges to the U.S. dollar credit system and increasing geopolitical tensions [6][7]. - The trend of "de-dollarization" globally may position gold as a new pricing anchor, potentially enhancing its upward momentum [7]. - The Fed's current easing cycle may be prolonged due to resilient employment and inflation, providing a favorable environment for gold investments [7].

金价重大拐点浮现：下周或将复刻历史行情，市场已进入风暴眼 最近身边买黄金的人是真多，不管是准备结婚买三金的小情侣，还是想着保值的大叔大妈，都在盯着金 价走势。打开手机财经软件，伦敦金现徘徊在4135美元/盎司左右，国内上海黄金T+D也涨到了945元/克 上下，周大福、老凤祥这些品牌金店的价格更是突破了1300元/克，水贝黄金现货都冲到了1022元/克。 更让人揪心的是，10月份金价刚创下4381美元/盎司的历史新高，转头就上演"过山车"，一周内暴跌近 500美元，现在又慢慢企稳回升，不少人都在问：这是不是要复刻历史上的牛市行情？其实答案就藏在 近期的政策、数据和市场动向里，现在的黄金市场，早就进入了多空博弈的风暴眼。 不过话说回来，黄金市场波动剧烈，10月份一周暴跌500美元的行情也提醒大家，投资黄金不能盲目追 涨。不管是买实物金还是黄金ETF，都要根据自己的风险承受能力理性布局。但从当前的政策、需求、 货币政策和技术面来看，黄金的重大拐点已经浮现，下周复刻历史行情的概率不小，这个风暴眼般的市 场，注定会吸引更多目光。 如果说新政是导火索，那实打实的需求就是金价的"压舱石"。世界黄金协会10月30日发布的三季 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that gold prices are unlikely to peak at the beginning of a rate-cutting cycle, as they are still in the early stages of this cycle [1] - In the medium to long term, the current market conditions driven by the Federal Reserve's initiation of a rate-cutting cycle, increasing uncertainty in overseas macro policies, and the global trend of de-dollarization are supportive of gold prices, suggesting a strategy of gradual accumulation during dips [1] - The Gold Stock ETF (517400) tracks the SSH Gold Stock Index (931238), which selects larger market capitalization companies involved in gold mining, smelting, and sales, covering the entire gold industry chain [1] Group 2 - The index constituents are primarily concentrated in the precious metals and industrial metals sectors, reflecting the overall performance of publicly traded securities related to the gold industry [1] - The index has a high industry concentration, which allows it to comprehensively represent the performance of gold-related listed securities [1]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the electric new energy and electronics sectors, with significant foreign capital inflow and increased holdings in these industries [2][9][22]. Core Insights - In Q3 2025, the total scale of foreign capital through the Stock Connect reached 2.57 trillion yuan, an increase of 283.13 billion yuan from the previous quarter. The proportion of holdings in the main board significantly decreased by 8.47 percentage points, while the growth sectors saw an increase of 11.80 percentage points [5][9]. - The sectors with the largest foreign holdings were electric new energy (17.93%, +4.88 percentage points), electronics (14.09%, +4.38 percentage points), and pharmaceuticals (7.34%, +0.07 percentage points). Conversely, the food and beverage sector saw a decline of 2.06 percentage points [9][10]. - The report highlights that foreign capital is likely to continue flowing into core assets, technology, cyclical sectors, and large financial institutions in Q4 2025, driven by favorable economic conditions and policy support [22][23]. Summary by Sections 1. Growth Sector Holdings - The proportion of foreign capital in growth sectors increased significantly, with a notable rise in holdings in the entrepreneurial and sci-tech boards [5][6]. 2. Electric New Energy and Electronics - The electric new energy and electronics sectors saw substantial increases in foreign capital holdings, with electric new energy leading at 17.93% and electronics at 14.09% [9][15]. 3. Core Assets and Technology Growth Stocks - Key assets such as Ningde Times and Sunshine Power experienced significant changes in foreign capital holdings, with the top five stocks showing a recovery in holding concentration [17][19]. 4. Future Capital Inflows - The report anticipates continued inflows into core assets and technology sectors, supported by the ongoing Fed rate cut cycle and improving corporate earnings [22][23].

Report Title - Weekly Report on Precious Metals (AU, AG): Precious Metals Fluctuate Widely and May Gradually Stabilize Subsequently [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - After recent significant adjustments, precious metal prices have a certain demand for stabilization and repair. The support below lies in high market uncertainty and the Fed still being in an interest - rate cut cycle. However, due to the easing of Sino - US trade relations, a relatively strong US dollar index, and the possibility of marginal alleviation of the US government shutdown, the short - term unilateral upward space for precious metals may be limited. In the short term, precious metal prices may gradually stabilize and enter a range - bound pattern. It is recommended to focus on long - term allocation opportunities of buying on dips after stabilization [7]. - The underlying logic of the long - term bull market for precious metals remains solid. The continuous increase in the US federal government debt will intensify the long - term weakening risk of the US dollar's credit. Coupled with the Fed still being in an interest - rate cut cycle, complex global geopolitical situations, and continued gold purchases by global central banks, the price center of gold will continue to move up steadily [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Market and Fundamental Indicator Tracking - **Price and Ratio**: Last week, precious metal prices dropped significantly and then stabilized, but gold still closed down on the weekly chart. London spot gold decreased from $4111.555/oz to $4002.690/oz, a weekly decline of 2.65%. London spot silver increased slightly from $48.6235/oz to $48.6562/oz, a weekly increase of 0.07%. The SHFE gold - silver ratio decreased by 2.66% to 80.58 [5][6]. - **ETF and CFC Holdings**: The gold SPDR - ETF持仓量 decreased by 7.73 tons to 1039.2 tons, a decline of 0.74%. The silver SLV - ETF持仓量 decreased by 230 tons to 15190 tons, a decline of 1.49%. COMEX gold non - commercial net long positions increased by 339 contracts to 266749 contracts, an increase of 0.13%. COMEX silver non - commercial net long positions increased by 738 contracts to 52276 contracts, an increase of 1.43% [6]. - **Inventory Data**: The SHFE gold inventory increased by 0.80 tons to 87.816 tons, an increase of 0.92%. The COMEX gold inventory decreased by 22.05 tons to 1187.16 tons, a decrease of 1.82%. The SHFE silver inventory increased by 0.57 tons to 666 tons, an increase of 0.09%. The COMEX silver inventory decreased by 451.26 tons to 15006 tons, a decrease of 2.92%. The SGE silver inventory decreased by 145.44 tons to 905 tons, a decrease of 13.84% [6]. PART TWO: Main Macroeconomic Indicator Tracking - **Exchange Rates and Interest Rates**: The US dollar index increased from 98.9417 to 99.7308, an increase of 0.80%. The US 2 - year Treasury yield increased from 3.4884% to 3.5736%, an increase of 2.44%. The US 10 - year Treasury yield increased from 4.0103% to 4.0833%, an increase of 1.82%. The US 10 - year real interest rate increased from 1.73% to 1.81%, an increase of 4.62% [6]. - **Economic Data**: The US GDP growth rate was strong, but the consumer confidence index declined again. The US manufacturing and service PMI both decreased. Retail sales data showed mixed performance. Employment cooled significantly, with the unemployment rate rising and wage growth slowing down. Inflation was relatively controllable, with core commodity inflation rising and core service inflation falling [58][59][60][65][70]. - **Eurozone Data**: The eurozone GDP bottomed out and rebounded. The eurozone manufacturing PMI rebounded, while the service PMI declined. Inflation data in the eurozone and the UK showed different trends [78][79]. - **Central Bank Gold Purchases**: The People's Bank of China has been increasing its gold reserves for 11 consecutive months. As of the end of September 2025, China's gold reserves reached 74.06 million ounces (about 2303.523 tons), an increase of 40,000 ounces (about 1.24 tons) month - on - month. In the first three quarters of 2025, global central banks and other institutions net - purchased about 633.6 tons of gold, a year - on - year decrease of about 12.1%. Although the pace of gold purchases by global central banks has slowed down, the demand for gold purchases is expected to remain [87].