Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that global economic activity remains strong despite tariff issues, with market growth expectations being overly pessimistic [1] - The forecast for global economic growth in 2025 and 2026 is set at 2.5% and 2.6% respectively, which is above market consensus [1] - The US economy is expected to outperform expectations, with a resilient labor market supporting consumer spending despite capacity constraints [2][3] Group 2 - The investment firm maintains a positive outlook for the cyclical recovery of the European economy, aided by looser financial conditions and a trade agreement with the US [2] - The "global real M1" indicator, which typically leads growth by about nine months, is rising, indicating that the easing financial environment is gradually reflecting in the real economy [3] - The firm believes that the US economy is not in recession and that robust economic growth prospects can support risk assets [3]