Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that global economic activity remains strong despite tariff issues, with market growth expectations being overly pessimistic [1] - The forecast for global economic growth in 2025 and 2026 is set at 2.5% and 2.6% respectively, which is above market consensus [1] - The US economy is expected to outperform expectations, with a resilient labor market supporting consumer spending despite capacity constraints [2][3] Group 2 - The investment firm maintains a positive outlook for the cyclical recovery of the European economy, aided by looser financial conditions and a trade agreement with the US [2] - The "global real M1" indicator, which typically leads growth by about nine months, is rising, indicating that the easing financial environment is gradually reflecting in the real economy [3] - The firm believes that the US economy is not in recession and that robust economic growth prospects can support risk assets [3]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut on September 17, 2025, aligning with market expectations[4] - The median federal funds rate forecast for the end of 2025 was revised down from 3.9% to 3.6%, indicating approximately two more rate cuts expected this year[7] - The decision reflected a cautious approach within the Federal Reserve, with only one dissenting vote advocating for a larger cut of 50 basis points[6] Group 2: Economic Outlook and Market Reactions - Powell emphasized a balance between employment and inflation, acknowledging rising unemployment while warning of persistent inflation risks[7] - Following the rate cut announcement, 10-year U.S. Treasury yields initially fell to a new low since April but later rebounded, indicating a hawkish interpretation of Powell's comments[10] - The U.S. retail sales in August increased by 0.6%, exceeding market expectations, suggesting ongoing economic resilience[19] Group 3: Risks and Future Considerations - Risks include potential unexpected rebounds in overseas inflation, which could prompt the Fed to tighten policies again[24] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and their impact on market volatility remain a concern, particularly regarding the Israel-Palestine and Russia-Ukraine conflicts[24] - The rising public debt and its implications for future fiscal policy could pose challenges for economic stability[19]

美银分析师强调，对黄金的投资需求增长非常强劲，突显出黄金作为对冲工具和投资组合锚点的吸引 力。 即便如此，他们警告称，市场人气看起来很拥挤，这使得黄金容易受到美联储政策或市场预期变化的影 响。直接的催化剂是本周联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）的决定。 以克劳迪奥•伊里戈延（Claudio Irigoyen）为首的美国银行团队预计，美联储本周将降息，随后暂停降 息至12月。美国银行强调，未来的降息道路并不平坦。 美国银行表示，如果美联储在北京时间周四凌晨2点如市场预期般降息，黄金将成为最大赢家。 尽管8月份通胀率仍顽固保持在2.9%的年化高位，美联储仍准备降低资金成本。 美国银行大宗商品分析师指出，在过去25年中，当美联储在通胀率持续高于2%目标的情况下放松货币 政策时，黄金价格从未出现下跌。 "事实上，即使不考虑全球金融危机时期，黄金在'通胀性宽松'期间的年度回报率也达到13%左右，"以 迈克尔·威德默（Michael Widmer）为首的分析师在周一的客户报告中表示。 美国银行预测，2026年黄金价格将达到每盎司4000美元。仅2025年至今，黄金期货涨幅已超过40%，周 二盘中曾上破3700美元。 分析师称 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no clear report industry investment rating provided in the content [1][2] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The price fluctuations of aluminum are expected to converge, the price center of alumina will move downward, and the price of cast aluminum alloy will follow that of electrolytic aluminum [1] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai Aluminum was 20,600, down 170 from the previous day; the closing price of the main contract of LME Aluminum 3M was 2,589, down 15 from the previous day; the closing price of the main contract of Shanghai Alumina was 3,171, down 34 from the previous day; and the closing price of the main contract of Aluminum Alloy was 20,090, down 75 from the previous day [1] - The trading volume and open interest of each contract showed different changes compared with previous trading days [1] Spot Market - The average domestic alumina price was 3,266, with a change of -4 compared to the previous day; the alumina price at Lianyungang's CIF was 3325 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day [1] - The pre-baked anode market price was 5,502, with no change from the previous day; the Foshan aluminum rod processing fee was 300, up 70 from the previous day [1] Corporate Profit and Loss - The profit and loss of electrolytic aluminum enterprises was 3,819.66, down 152.30 from the previous day; the profit and loss of alumina enterprises in Shanxi was 280, down 10 from the previous day [1] - The theoretical profit of ADC12 was -107, up 11 from the previous day [1] Inventory - The domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots was 586,000 tons, up 15,000 tons from the previous day; the LME aluminum ingot inventory was 655,000 tons, up 3,000 tons from the previous day [1] - The total inventory of the three places for aluminum alloy was 31,653, up 10 from the previous day [1] Other Information - The U.S.-India trade agreement may still be uncertain, and the Trump administration has imposed tariffs on India [2] - The "sticky inflation" in the United States is accelerating again, which may affect the Fed's policy [2] - The trend intensity of aluminum is 0, alumina is -1, and aluminum alloy is 0 [2]

Core Insights - JPMorgan warns that U.S. inflation is proving to be more stubborn than expected, with multiple alternative inflation indicators suggesting that the disinflation process has stalled and core inflation is accelerating again [1][9] - The market's optimistic interpretation of the July CPI report may be misplaced, as various underlying inflation metrics indicate that inflation has not continued to decline and core inflation's sticky components are re-accelerating [1][5] Inflation Indicators - According to the Atlanta Fed, the sticky components of the traditional core CPI are slightly above pre-pandemic averages and have recently accelerated [2] - The Cleveland Fed's trimmed mean and median inflation indicators provide a more reliable assessment of inflation trends, with the trimmed mean inflation rebounding from 3.0% in April to 3.2% in July, and median inflation rising from a pre-pandemic average of 2.6% to the current 3.6% [5][8] Monetary Policy Challenges - The current inflation landscape presents complex challenges for Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions, as multiple alternative core indicators show inflation remains significantly above the Fed's 2% target and may continue to rise [9] - Unless an economic recession occurs, inflation is likely to remain sticky at levels that do not support more aggressive easing policies from the Fed, casting doubt on market expectations for rapid rate cuts [1][9]

Core Viewpoint - The Royal Bank of Canada anticipates that the Bank of Canada will maintain interest rates unchanged in the upcoming meeting due to sticky inflation, a resilient economy, and stronger fiscal spending [1] Economic Conditions - Trade tensions are escalating, and Canadian economic data remains weak [1] - The labor market showed signs of bottoming out in June, with a partial recovery in the confidence index that had plummeted in March [1] - The USMCA (United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement) allows most Canadian exports to enter the US duty-free, which is crucial for Canada [1] Inflation and Monetary Policy - Recent inflation reports have unexpectedly risen, primarily driven by pressures from the domestic service sector [1] - The combination of sticky inflation data, a weak yet relatively resilient economic backdrop, and the prospect of increased fiscal spending are reasons why the Bank of Canada is unlikely to cut rates again in this cycle [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. non-farm employment data for June exceeded market expectations, indicating a robust labor market, which may influence the Federal Reserve's future policy decisions [1][4][12]. Group 1: Employment Data - In June, the U.S. added 147,000 non-farm jobs, surpassing the market expectation of 106,000 [1]. - The unemployment rate unexpectedly decreased to 4.1%, against the expected 4.3% [1][4]. - The labor participation rate fell to 62.3%, slightly below the expected 62.4% [1]. - Average hourly earnings increased by 3.7% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 3.8% [1]. Group 2: Labor Market Dynamics - The labor market is showing signs of a mild cooling trend, with private sector job growth slowing significantly to 74,000 in June, down from 134,000 in May [8]. - The government sector saw an unexpected increase of 73,000 jobs, influenced by seasonal factors, particularly in state and local government employment [8][10]. - Wage growth is also slowing, with average hourly earnings growth down to 3.7% year-on-year, indicating a potential softening of persistent inflation [8][12]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Policy Implications - The divergence in views among Federal Reserve officials (doves vs. hawks) may lead to varied interpretations of the employment data, impacting future interest rate decisions [1][12]. - The neutral interest rate is estimated to have reached 3.5%, with the ongoing debate primarily affecting the timing of reaching this neutral rate rather than its overall shape [1][12]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - The recommendation is to buy U.S. Treasuries on dips and short the U.S. dollar on rallies, as the market reacts to the strong employment data [2][13][14]. - The U.S. Treasury yield curve has flattened, with significant increases in yields across various maturities, indicating a shift in market expectations [13]. - The dollar index has shown a slight increase, but the long-term trend remains downward, influenced by various economic factors [14].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's situation this summer is particularly challenging, with expectations for fewer interest rate cuts this year due to persistent inflation and potential policy changes from the Trump administration [1] Economic Predictions - The last economic forecast from the FOMC was released on March 2, prior to Trump's tariff announcement, which has since disrupted the economic outlook [1] - The FOMC had previously anticipated two interest rate cuts in 2025, but analysts now suggest that only one cut in 2025 would not be surprising [1] Market Reactions - Bond futures traders have significantly delayed their expectations for interest rate cuts this year [1] - A scenario where the dot plot indicates no rate cuts would be interpreted as "quite hawkish" [1]

Group 1: Inflation Data and Market Expectations - The April CPI data in the US unexpectedly fell below expectations, leading to strong market anticipation for a shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [1][3] - April CPI rose by 2.3% year-on-year, marking the lowest level since February 2021, while core CPI remained at 2.8%, aligning with market expectations [1][3] - The significant drop in food prices, particularly a 13% decline in egg prices, was a key factor in lowering overall inflation levels [3] Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy Dynamics - Recent statements from Federal Reserve officials indicate a cautious approach, with a focus on maintaining high interest rates to ensure sustained inflation reduction [4] - Market expectations for a potential rate cut in September have strengthened, with a projected cumulative cut of approximately 56 basis points for the year [3][4] - The dollar index experienced fluctuations following the data release, reflecting market reactions to the changing inflation outlook [4] Group 3: Gold Market Opportunities - The combination of weak inflation data and rising rate cut expectations has positively impacted the gold market, with spot gold prices reaching recent highs [5][7] - Geopolitical tensions, including conflicts in the Middle East and ongoing issues in Ukraine, have further enhanced gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [7] - The World Gold Council reported a significant inflow of 226 tons into global gold ETFs in Q1 2025, indicating strong demand, particularly from the Chinese market [7]