Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no clear report industry investment rating provided in the content [1][2] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The price fluctuations of aluminum are expected to converge, the price center of alumina will move downward, and the price of cast aluminum alloy will follow that of electrolytic aluminum [1] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai Aluminum was 20,600, down 170 from the previous day; the closing price of the main contract of LME Aluminum 3M was 2,589, down 15 from the previous day; the closing price of the main contract of Shanghai Alumina was 3,171, down 34 from the previous day; and the closing price of the main contract of Aluminum Alloy was 20,090, down 75 from the previous day [1] - The trading volume and open interest of each contract showed different changes compared with previous trading days [1] Spot Market - The average domestic alumina price was 3,266, with a change of -4 compared to the previous day; the alumina price at Lianyungang's CIF was 3325 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day [1] - The pre-baked anode market price was 5,502, with no change from the previous day; the Foshan aluminum rod processing fee was 300, up 70 from the previous day [1] Corporate Profit and Loss - The profit and loss of electrolytic aluminum enterprises was 3,819.66, down 152.30 from the previous day; the profit and loss of alumina enterprises in Shanxi was 280, down 10 from the previous day [1] - The theoretical profit of ADC12 was -107, up 11 from the previous day [1] Inventory - The domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots was 586,000 tons, up 15,000 tons from the previous day; the LME aluminum ingot inventory was 655,000 tons, up 3,000 tons from the previous day [1] - The total inventory of the three places for aluminum alloy was 31,653, up 10 from the previous day [1] Other Information - The U.S.-India trade agreement may still be uncertain, and the Trump administration has imposed tariffs on India [2] - The "sticky inflation" in the United States is accelerating again, which may affect the Fed's policy [2] - The trend intensity of aluminum is 0, alumina is -1, and aluminum alloy is 0 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Royal Bank of Canada anticipates that the Bank of Canada will maintain interest rates unchanged in the upcoming meeting due to sticky inflation, a resilient economy, and stronger fiscal spending [1] Economic Conditions - Trade tensions are escalating, and Canadian economic data remains weak [1] - The labor market showed signs of bottoming out in June, with a partial recovery in the confidence index that had plummeted in March [1] - The USMCA (United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement) allows most Canadian exports to enter the US duty-free, which is crucial for Canada [1] Inflation and Monetary Policy - Recent inflation reports have unexpectedly risen, primarily driven by pressures from the domestic service sector [1] - The combination of sticky inflation data, a weak yet relatively resilient economic backdrop, and the prospect of increased fiscal spending are reasons why the Bank of Canada is unlikely to cut rates again in this cycle [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. non-farm employment data for June exceeded market expectations, indicating a robust labor market, which may influence the Federal Reserve's future policy decisions [1][4][12]. Group 1: Employment Data - In June, the U.S. added 147,000 non-farm jobs, surpassing the market expectation of 106,000 [1]. - The unemployment rate unexpectedly decreased to 4.1%, against the expected 4.3% [1][4]. - The labor participation rate fell to 62.3%, slightly below the expected 62.4% [1]. - Average hourly earnings increased by 3.7% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 3.8% [1]. Group 2: Labor Market Dynamics - The labor market is showing signs of a mild cooling trend, with private sector job growth slowing significantly to 74,000 in June, down from 134,000 in May [8]. - The government sector saw an unexpected increase of 73,000 jobs, influenced by seasonal factors, particularly in state and local government employment [8][10]. - Wage growth is also slowing, with average hourly earnings growth down to 3.7% year-on-year, indicating a potential softening of persistent inflation [8][12]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Policy Implications - The divergence in views among Federal Reserve officials (doves vs. hawks) may lead to varied interpretations of the employment data, impacting future interest rate decisions [1][12]. - The neutral interest rate is estimated to have reached 3.5%, with the ongoing debate primarily affecting the timing of reaching this neutral rate rather than its overall shape [1][12]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - The recommendation is to buy U.S. Treasuries on dips and short the U.S. dollar on rallies, as the market reacts to the strong employment data [2][13][14]. - The U.S. Treasury yield curve has flattened, with significant increases in yields across various maturities, indicating a shift in market expectations [13]. - The dollar index has shown a slight increase, but the long-term trend remains downward, influenced by various economic factors [14].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's situation this summer is particularly challenging, with expectations for fewer interest rate cuts this year due to persistent inflation and potential policy changes from the Trump administration [1] Economic Predictions - The last economic forecast from the FOMC was released on March 2, prior to Trump's tariff announcement, which has since disrupted the economic outlook [1] - The FOMC had previously anticipated two interest rate cuts in 2025, but analysts now suggest that only one cut in 2025 would not be surprising [1] Market Reactions - Bond futures traders have significantly delayed their expectations for interest rate cuts this year [1] - A scenario where the dot plot indicates no rate cuts would be interpreted as "quite hawkish" [1]

Group 1: Inflation Data and Market Expectations - The April CPI data in the US unexpectedly fell below expectations, leading to strong market anticipation for a shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [1][3] - April CPI rose by 2.3% year-on-year, marking the lowest level since February 2021, while core CPI remained at 2.8%, aligning with market expectations [1][3] - The significant drop in food prices, particularly a 13% decline in egg prices, was a key factor in lowering overall inflation levels [3] Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy Dynamics - Recent statements from Federal Reserve officials indicate a cautious approach, with a focus on maintaining high interest rates to ensure sustained inflation reduction [4] - Market expectations for a potential rate cut in September have strengthened, with a projected cumulative cut of approximately 56 basis points for the year [3][4] - The dollar index experienced fluctuations following the data release, reflecting market reactions to the changing inflation outlook [4] Group 3: Gold Market Opportunities - The combination of weak inflation data and rising rate cut expectations has positively impacted the gold market, with spot gold prices reaching recent highs [5][7] - Geopolitical tensions, including conflicts in the Middle East and ongoing issues in Ukraine, have further enhanced gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [7] - The World Gold Council reported a significant inflow of 226 tons into global gold ETFs in Q1 2025, indicating strong demand, particularly from the Chinese market [7]