Gold (GC=F) futures opened at $4,128.60 per ounce on Wednesday, down 0.3% from Tuesday’s close of $4,140. The price of gold rose above $4,170 in early trading. Gold’s strength followed two important data releases Tuesday, and reports that Kevin Hassett is the favorite to be the next U.S. Federal Reserve chair. U.S. retail sales rose 0.2% in September, slower than the 0.6% gain in August. And the Producer Price Index for final demand, a measure of wholesale prices, gained 0.3%, in line with expectations. ...

Gold prices have been on the rise since the start of the week, and analysts indicate that the yellow metal may build on its recent gains. Gold prices on COMEX rose for a fifth consecutive session on ... ...

Michael Bur, the hedge fund manager of the big short fame, has two new targets, Nvidia and Palanteer. Bur who rose to fame for his 2008 bet against the US housing market, bought put options on the companies that was revealed in a 13F and that means he would profit from price declines. The disclosure comes just a few days after he posted crypto cryptic social posts about market exuberance.Joining us now for more on investing in tech is Max Wasserman, Myiar Capital co-founder and senior portfolio manager. Max ...

Group 1: Precious Metals Market - Gold and silver prices experienced a significant decline for the second consecutive day, halting a rally that had seen gold prices rise over 60% since the beginning of the year, reaching a peak of $4,381.51 before dropping to a low of $4,000 [1][3] - The rally in precious metals was driven by factors such as a weaker dollar, expectations of interest rate cuts, falling bond yields, and increased central bank buying, alongside heightened demand for safe-haven assets due to global economic concerns [2][5] - The recent sell-off was attributed to profit-taking, improved prospects for easing tensions between China and the US, and a stronger dollar, leading to a drop in gold miners' stocks, with Northern Star Resources and Perseus Mining seeing declines of over 8% and 6% respectively [3][4] Group 2: Market Reactions - The decline in gold prices coincided with a broader downturn in Asian equity markets, following two days of strong gains, as investors reacted to comments from US President Donald Trump regarding the uncertainty of a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping [5][6] - Major Asian stock indices, including the Nikkei 225, Hang Seng Index, and Shanghai Composite, all recorded losses, reflecting a general trend of profit-taking after previous rallies [7] - Despite the volatility in gold prices, analysts suggest that structural demand for gold as a form of insurance remains strong, with central banks likely to continue accumulating reserves amid concerns over fiat currency stability and high levels of debt [4][5]

Core Insights - The gold and silver markets are experiencing significant upward momentum, with gold reaching an all-time high of $3,919 per ounce and silver rising nearly 70% year-to-date as of October 1, 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Key Drivers for Gold - Gold's price surge is primarily driven by macroeconomic factors, including U.S. inflation data and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with a 95% probability of a rate cut in October [4][5]. - The weakening U.S. dollar and political uncertainties, such as the government shutdown, are contributing to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [5]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly between Russia and NATO, are further supporting gold's safe-haven demand [6]. Group 2: Key Drivers for Silver - Silver's performance is bolstered by strong industrial demand, which constitutes 58% of total global demand, and persistent supply bottlenecks [7]. - The gold-silver ratio remains elevated at around 86, indicating potential for silver to narrow the valuation gap with gold as investors seek more affordable alternatives [7]. - China's commitment to reducing carbon emissions is expected to enhance the adoption of solar technologies, increasing silver demand [7]. Group 3: Signs Supporting a Solid Bull Run - The current rally in precious metals is supported by structural drivers, including the Fed's dovish monetary policy and strong central bank demand for gold, with 95% of central banks planning to increase their gold holdings [8]. - The geopolitical landscape and the U.S. government shutdown are reinforcing the role of precious metals as hedges against currency volatility [8]. Group 4: Factors Suggesting Bubble Risks - Despite strong macroeconomic support, the rapid price increases in gold and silver raise concerns about potential market overheating and speculative participation [9][10]. - The gold-silver ratio being above its long-term average suggests that silver's relative outperformance could overshoot, increasing vulnerability to sentiment shifts [9]. Group 5: Conclusion - The current rally is characterized as a solid bull run driven by macro fundamentals, although there is a risk of short-term corrections due to overbought conditions and sensitivity to monetary policy changes [11]. - Monitoring key economic and political events is essential for understanding the trajectory of precious metals [11].

Group 1: Gold Market Overview - Gold futures opened at $3,892.70 per ounce, reflecting a 0.7% increase from the previous close of $3,867.50. The price of gold has surged nearly 48% in 2025 [1][4]. - The current price of gold has risen 4% from the opening price of $3,742.80 one week ago and increased 11.7% from the opening price of $3,485.70 on September 2. Over the past year, gold is up 46.9% from the opening price of $2,650.60 on October 2, 2024 [4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Response - The S&P 500 closed above $6,700 for the first time, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average approached an all-time high, influenced by the ADP employment report indicating a loss of 32,000 private jobs in September, suggesting a weakening labor market [2]. - Lower interest rates are anticipated, which typically enhance the attractiveness of gold compared to interest-bearing assets, as they reduce business borrowing costs [3]. Group 3: Investment Insights - Investing in gold involves a four-step process: setting goals, determining allocation, choosing a form, and considering the investment timeline [6][8]. - A small gold position can stabilize a stock portfolio and serve as a currency during economic crises, although gold has historically underperformed compared to stocks [7][11]. - Analysts are optimistic about gold, with Goldman Sachs predicting a price of $3,700 per troy ounce by year-end 2025, driven by rising demand from central banks and uncertainties in U.S. tariff policy [12].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that global economic activity remains strong despite tariff issues, with market growth expectations being overly pessimistic [1] - The forecast for global economic growth in 2025 and 2026 is set at 2.5% and 2.6% respectively, which is above market consensus [1] - The US economy is expected to outperform expectations, with a resilient labor market supporting consumer spending despite capacity constraints [2][3] Group 2 - The investment firm maintains a positive outlook for the cyclical recovery of the European economy, aided by looser financial conditions and a trade agreement with the US [2] - The "global real M1" indicator, which typically leads growth by about nine months, is rising, indicating that the easing financial environment is gradually reflecting in the real economy [3] - The firm believes that the US economy is not in recession and that robust economic growth prospects can support risk assets [3]

Core Insights - Millennials represent approximately 49.7% of mortgage inquiries in the 50 largest U.S. metros for 2024, a decrease from 52.3% in 2023, attributed to worsening affordability and increased participation from Gen Z [6] - In high-cost tech markets, millennials dominate mortgage applications, with San Jose at 62.6%, Seattle at 57.1%, and San Francisco at 56.9%, indicating their financial capability despite high prices [6] - The reliance on adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) and refinancing among younger buyers raises concerns about potential financial risks if interest rates do not decrease significantly [2][6] Market Dynamics - The average down payment for millennials in San Jose is about $213,000, while in San Francisco it is around $190,000, with typical loan requests near $794,000 and $736,000 respectively, reflecting the high cost of living in these areas [6] - The current market is characterized by a "lock-in" effect among baby boomers, who are not selling their homes due to low mortgage rates, leading to limited inventory and sustained competition in millennial-preferred markets [6] Future Outlook - Millennial demand is expected to remain a key driver of home purchases, particularly in high-wage areas, although affordability challenges will lead to uneven market activity [6] - The dependence on ARMs and refinancing strategies among younger buyers introduces risks related to potential payment shocks if interest rates remain stable and home prices do not adjust [6] - Without a significant increase in new home construction, the existing home turnover will remain limited, perpetuating inventory constraints and competitive pressures in the housing market [6]

Core Insights - The week was marked by significant market activity ahead of the FOMC meeting, with a focus on US inflation and labor market data [3] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for August met expectations, indicating core inflation at +3.1% YoY and overall inflation at +2.9% YoY, remaining below 3% [4][5] - The CPI report supports the likelihood of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming meeting [5] Market Performance - Gold prices remained stable above $3600/oz after an initial breakout on Monday, despite various economic catalysts [6] - The CPI report's indication of steady inflation bolstered expectations for a Fed rate cut, influencing market sentiment [6] - A spike in weekly jobless claims, reaching a four-year high, added pressure on the Fed to consider action, impacting market dynamics [6] - Despite favorable conditions, gold did not experience a significant spike, raising questions about whether rate cut expectations are fully priced in [6]

Core Viewpoint - Stocks on Wall Street are experiencing a rise, approaching a third consecutive day of record highs, driven by expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1 - The anticipation of a Federal Reserve rate cut is influencing market sentiment positively, leading to increased stock prices [1] - Wall Street's performance reflects investor optimism regarding monetary policy adjustments [1] - The potential rate cut is seen as a catalyst for further market gains, contributing to the upward trend in stock prices [1]