Core Viewpoint - The global external demand may face adjustment pressure in the short term (Q4), but there is a high probability of a moderate recovery in the first half of next year. Among the 20 leading indicators analyzed, 11 can predict next year's data, with 7 indicating a potential recovery in Q1 or the entire first half of next year [2][4]. Group 1: Global Trade and Transportation Indicators - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) suggests that external demand should continue to rise until the end of the year, but there may be a risk of a pullback after an "overheating" phase [5][25]. - The Goods Trade Barometer indicates that global goods trade volume is likely to trend upwards until July-August [6][30]. - Air freight demand forecasts a moderate slowdown in external demand growth in Q4 [8][32]. - The global goods trade instant prediction indicator shows a potential slowdown in quarter-on-quarter growth for Q4, although year-on-year growth may trend upwards [10][41]. Group 2: Global Industrial and Business Confidence Indicators - The G7 OECD Composite Leading Indicator suggests that China's exports may experience fluctuations in early Q4, followed by a moderate recovery into early next year [12][46]. - The JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI New Export Orders indicates a moderate recovery in global trade demand over the next 1-2 months, but there are signs of potential downward risks due to previous overperformance [14][67]. - The JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI Future Output Expectations signal a risk of declining manufacturing output growth, as current production levels exceed company expectations [15][72]. Group 3: Financial Cycle Indicators - The overseas central bank interest rate cut tracker indicates a moderate recovery in external demand over the next nine months, particularly as the U.S. has begun its rate-cutting cycle [16][78]. - The global monetary policy tracking index suggests short-term adjustment pressure on external demand, with a stable outlook for the first half of next year [17][82]. Group 4: Commodity and Industry Indicators - The global semiconductor sales growth and forecast suggest resilience in ICT demand, with a moderate decline expected [18]. - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index indicates that ICT demand will remain strong at least in the first half of next year [18]. - Global automotive sales forecasts indicate low-level fluctuations in automotive trade demand next year [18]. Group 5: Regional Leading Indicators - U.S. manufacturing and inventory cycle leading indicators suggest a moderate recovery in demand in the first half of next year [19]. - Eurozone manufacturing and inventory cycle leading indicators indicate that inventory levels may be excessive, with a stable outlook for early next year [19].