Core Viewpoint - The global external demand may face adjustment pressure in the short term (Q4), but there is a high probability of a moderate recovery in the first half of next year. Among the 20 leading indicators analyzed, 11 can predict next year's data, with 7 indicating a potential recovery in Q1 or the entire first half of next year [2][4]. Group 1: Global Trade and Transportation Indicators - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) suggests that external demand should continue to rise until the end of the year, but there may be a risk of a pullback after an "overheating" phase [5][25]. - The Goods Trade Barometer indicates that global goods trade volume is likely to trend upwards until July-August [6][30]. - Air freight demand forecasts a moderate slowdown in external demand growth in Q4 [8][32]. - The global goods trade instant prediction indicator shows a potential slowdown in quarter-on-quarter growth for Q4, although year-on-year growth may trend upwards [10][41]. Group 2: Global Industrial and Business Confidence Indicators - The G7 OECD Composite Leading Indicator suggests that China's exports may experience fluctuations in early Q4, followed by a moderate recovery into early next year [12][46]. - The JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI New Export Orders indicates a moderate recovery in global trade demand over the next 1-2 months, but there are signs of potential downward risks due to previous overperformance [14][67]. - The JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI Future Output Expectations signal a risk of declining manufacturing output growth, as current production levels exceed company expectations [15][72]. Group 3: Financial Cycle Indicators - The overseas central bank interest rate cut tracker indicates a moderate recovery in external demand over the next nine months, particularly as the U.S. has begun its rate-cutting cycle [16][78]. - The global monetary policy tracking index suggests short-term adjustment pressure on external demand, with a stable outlook for the first half of next year [17][82]. Group 4: Commodity and Industry Indicators - The global semiconductor sales growth and forecast suggest resilience in ICT demand, with a moderate decline expected [18]. - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index indicates that ICT demand will remain strong at least in the first half of next year [18]. - Global automotive sales forecasts indicate low-level fluctuations in automotive trade demand next year [18]. Group 5: Regional Leading Indicators - U.S. manufacturing and inventory cycle leading indicators suggest a moderate recovery in demand in the first half of next year [19]. - Eurozone manufacturing and inventory cycle leading indicators indicate that inventory levels may be excessive, with a stable outlook for early next year [19].

Economic Indicators - Retail sales of passenger cars increased by 6% year-on-year in September, up from 3% in August[2] - OECD composite leading indicator for G7 countries rose to 100.49 in September, compared to 100.42 in August[2] - Gold price increased by 2.7% to $3986.2 per ounce, while copper price rose by 1.9% to $10,765 per ton[2] Real Estate and Construction - Real estate transactions in 67 cities showed a year-on-year decline of 33% in early October, worsening from a 1.2% decline in September[2] - The average consumption of rebar was down 10% year-on-year as of October 9, compared to a 12% decline in the previous four weeks[3] - The land premium rate was at 4.83% as of October 5, up from 2.91% in September[13] Consumer Behavior - Subway passenger volume in 27 cities decreased by 4.8% year-on-year in early October, down from a 3.8% increase in September[3] - Express delivery volume growth slowed to 4.5% year-on-year as of October 5, down from 12% in the previous four weeks[3] Trade and External Demand - G7 OECD leading indicators suggest a recovery in external demand, with a rise to 100.49 in September[24] - The number of cargo ships from China to the U.S. fell by 19.7% year-on-year as of October 11, compared to a 3.4% increase the previous week[31] Price Trends - Oil prices fell, with WTI crude at $58.9 per barrel, down 3.3%, and Brent crude at $62.73 per barrel, down 2.8%[3] - Agricultural product prices generally declined, with vegetable prices down 1.2% and pork prices down 2.8%[46]