全球工业格局变迁
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不出意外德国工业的“去中国化”,将变成全网笑话
芯世相· 2025-11-26 11:31
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing industrial crisis in Germany, highlighting the paradox of German companies increasingly relying on China despite political calls for "decoupling" from the Chinese market. It argues that the notion of "de-Chinafication" is unrealistic and counterproductive, as German industries are deeply integrated with Chinese markets and technologies [10][21][29]. Group 1: Industrial Crisis in Germany - German industrial companies are experiencing a significant decline in competitiveness, with a recent survey indicating that 36.6% of firms feel disadvantaged compared to non-EU competitors, marking a historical low [12][13]. - The crisis is attributed to structural issues such as an aging population, a shortage of skilled labor, rising labor costs, and bureaucratic inefficiencies, which collectively exert pressure on business operations [14][15]. - A notable trend is the migration of German companies abroad, with 70% of energy-intensive firms planning to invest overseas, reflecting a loss of confidence in the domestic industrial landscape [16][17]. Group 2: Dependence on China - Despite political rhetoric advocating for reduced reliance on China, trade data shows that Germany's imports and exports with China reached €163.4 billion (approximately $190.7 billion) from January to August, surpassing trade with the U.S. [22][23]. - German companies are increasingly viewing China not just as a low-cost manufacturing base but as a critical driver for technological innovation and market growth, as evidenced by BMW's investment in hydrogen fuel cell production in China [22][23]. - BASF's significant investment in a chemical production facility in Guangdong, totaling €10 billion, underscores the strategic importance of the Chinese market for German firms [23][24]. Group 3: Global Industrial Landscape Shift - The article highlights a historical shift in global industrial power, with developing countries, particularly China, increasing their share of global manufacturing value added, which now stands at 31% [30][31]. - China's manufacturing prowess is evident in various sectors, including electric vehicles and semiconductors, where it leads global production [33][34]. - The article concludes that the "de-Chinafication" narrative is fundamentally flawed, as it contradicts economic principles and the realities of global supply chains, ultimately harming Germany's industrial competitiveness [35][36].