Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration is considering a significant shift in U.S. policy towards Myanmar, focusing on its rare earth resources to undermine China's dominance in the global rare earth supply chain [1][6]. Group 1: U.S. Policy Shift - The Trump administration is discussing strategies to engage with Myanmar's military government or the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) to secure rare earth exports [1][5]. - Proposed strategies include negotiating a peace agreement between the military government and the KIA or directly collaborating with the KIA [1][5]. - The U.S. may consider reducing tariffs on Myanmar and lifting sanctions on the military government to facilitate rare earth exports [1][5]. Group 2: Rare Earth Market Dynamics - Rare earth elements, essential for advanced technologies, are predominantly controlled by China, which holds nearly 90% of global processing capacity [2]. - Myanmar's rare earth production has surged from 200 tons in 2014 to 31,000 tons in 2020, positioning it among the top three producers globally [2]. - China is projected to import approximately 77,300 tons of rare earths in 2024, with 44,000 tons (57%) expected to come from Myanmar [2]. Group 3: Challenges and Considerations - Experts highlight significant logistical challenges in establishing a new rare earth supply chain from Kachin State to India for export [7]. - The ongoing civil conflict in Myanmar complicates the situation, as the KIA controls many rare earth mining areas [7]. - The feasibility of transporting rare earths from Kachin to India is considered extremely low due to geographical and infrastructural limitations [7].