Group 1 - UBS emphasizes the profound impact of the recent US tariff measures on the global economy, predicting a reduction in US real GDP growth to 1.6% by 2025 and an increase in inflation by 2 basis points [1] - The global economic growth forecast has been downgraded, with 2025 growth expectations lowered by 40 basis points to 2.6% and 2026 expectations down by 20 basis points to 2.5% [1] - UBS maintains a cautious stance on long-term US Treasuries, suggesting a long position in 30-year US Treasuries relative to swap rates, while also positioning in US 10-year breakeven inflation rates and 5-year euro inflation swaps [1] Group 2 - In the foreign exchange market, UBS suggests buying during periods of declining volatility rather than directly shorting the US dollar, based on the belief that the dollar index is undervalued [2] - For emerging market currencies, UBS recommends selective exposure to commodity currencies like the Brazilian real and Mexican peso, reflecting confidence in regional economic resilience [2] - UBS sets a year-end target for the S&P 500 index at 5300 points, indicating a potential upside of 7%, while cautioning that the market is entering a high valuation zone [2] Group 3 - UBS advises reallocating funds to local currency debt in Brazil, Mexico, South Korea, India, and Singapore instead of directly investing in stocks, due to the current interest rate environment [3] - UBS's growth forecast for Asian emerging markets is 0.3 percentage points higher than the IMF's prediction, influencing its asset allocation strategy [3] - UBS constructs a multi-layered defense system for risk hedging, recommending maintaining gold positions with a target price of $3500 per ounce, reflecting a focus on geopolitical risk premiums [3] Group 4 - UBS's strategy report reflects a risk management-oriented allocation approach, focusing on duration management, volatility trading, and regional selection amid global economic uncertainty [4] - The effectiveness of UBS's allocation framework will depend on the intensity of geopolitical tensions, central bank policy paths, and the actual resilience of the global economy [4]