Core Viewpoint - The current global economy is exhibiting characteristics of a soft landing, with major economic data generally exceeding expectations, and inflationary pressures gradually easing [1] Economic Environment - The Citi Economic Surprise Index indicates that most data from major economies is better than expected [1] - Manufacturing and services PMI show fluctuations but are overall stabilizing [1] - The growth gap between developed and emerging markets is narrowing [1] Asset Performance - Over the past decade, diversified portfolios have demonstrated resilience, with a 60/40 stock-bond investment portfolio yielding an annualized return of 7.18% and a year-to-date return of 7.4% [1] - Historical data shows that after peaks in the VIX index, the average return of the S&P 500 over the following 12 months is 13.7% [1] Investment Strategy - A "multi-asset balanced" framework is recommended, focusing on growth opportunities in developed and Asia-Pacific markets [1] - Developed market stocks offer stability and return potential, while Asia-Pacific stocks (excluding Japan) have long-term upward momentum [1] - On the bond side, attention should be given to Asian credit bonds, global high-yield bonds, and U.S. investment-grade bonds [1] - A balance between interest rate-sensitive assets and defensive assets is crucial, with U.S. Treasuries and cash-like assets serving as hedges against uncertainty [1] Diversification Importance - While diversification does not guarantee profits, it effectively mitigates risks [1] - In a soft landing economic cycle, maintaining long-term allocations and dynamic rebalancing is key to navigating through cycles [1]

Group 1 - The Barclays research team believes that emerging markets are impacted by US tariffs, geopolitical tensions, and global economic slowdown, but these effects are offset by rising commodity export prices and renewed investor interest in emerging market assets for diversification [1] - The outlook for local and credit markets in emerging markets is expected to remain strong, with trends likely to continue [1] - The weakening of the US dollar since the beginning of the year is not seen as a negative factor for emerging market economies, and any trend towards diversifying away from dollar assets could further weaken the dollar and benefit emerging markets [1] Group 2 - Current market sentiment is favorable for emerging market currencies due to the broad weakening of the US dollar and decreased market volatility, which particularly benefits arbitrage trading [2] - Investor enthusiasm for emerging market credit appears low, with recent inflows into emerging market bond funds concentrated in local currency funds, despite emerging market sovereign credit spreads showing resilience [2] - Emerging market sovereign credit spreads are only about 15 basis points above their lowest levels in years, indicating strong performance despite macroeconomic uncertainties [2] Group 3 - Despite the announcement of tariffs by the US in early April, emerging Asian markets have shown relatively robust export performance, attributed to trade front-loading effects, although this may vary by economy [3] - Core inflation in the region is showing signs of rising, while energy inflation remains low; however, geopolitical tensions could lead to higher oil prices and sustained inflation [3] - The average CPI inflation forecast for the top ten emerging Asian economies for 2025 has decreased to 1.5%, down from 2.2% in 2024, indicating a potential for more cautious monetary policy amid moderate inflation data [3]

Core Insights - Fitch Ratings indicates that the issuance of U.S. investment-grade bonds is supported by demand for both maturity and quality [1] Group 1 - The demand for investment-grade bonds is driven by investors seeking stability and quality in their portfolios [1] - The current market environment shows a preference for longer maturities, reflecting investor confidence in the economic outlook [1] - Quality demand remains strong, as investors are increasingly cautious and favor higher-rated securities [1]

Group 1 - UBS emphasizes the profound impact of the recent US tariff measures on the global economy, predicting a reduction in US real GDP growth to 1.6% by 2025 and an increase in inflation by 2 basis points [1] - The global economic growth forecast has been downgraded, with 2025 growth expectations lowered by 40 basis points to 2.6% and 2026 expectations down by 20 basis points to 2.5% [1] - UBS maintains a cautious stance on long-term US Treasuries, suggesting a long position in 30-year US Treasuries relative to swap rates, while also positioning in US 10-year breakeven inflation rates and 5-year euro inflation swaps [1] Group 2 - In the foreign exchange market, UBS suggests buying during periods of declining volatility rather than directly shorting the US dollar, based on the belief that the dollar index is undervalued [2] - For emerging market currencies, UBS recommends selective exposure to commodity currencies like the Brazilian real and Mexican peso, reflecting confidence in regional economic resilience [2] - UBS sets a year-end target for the S&P 500 index at 5300 points, indicating a potential upside of 7%, while cautioning that the market is entering a high valuation zone [2] Group 3 - UBS advises reallocating funds to local currency debt in Brazil, Mexico, South Korea, India, and Singapore instead of directly investing in stocks, due to the current interest rate environment [3] - UBS's growth forecast for Asian emerging markets is 0.3 percentage points higher than the IMF's prediction, influencing its asset allocation strategy [3] - UBS constructs a multi-layered defense system for risk hedging, recommending maintaining gold positions with a target price of $3500 per ounce, reflecting a focus on geopolitical risk premiums [3] Group 4 - UBS's strategy report reflects a risk management-oriented allocation approach, focusing on duration management, volatility trading, and regional selection amid global economic uncertainty [4] - The effectiveness of UBS's allocation framework will depend on the intensity of geopolitical tensions, central bank policy paths, and the actual resilience of the global economy [4]