经过一段时间调整之后，近期A股和港股有一定的企稳反弹，市场信心有所回升。那么市场在年底之前 可能会受到布局明年资金的带动，出现一轮像样的反弹行情，甚至可能是跨年度行情。前段时间市场的 回调主要是对前期涨幅过大的一些科技股出现获利回吐的压力，出现了调整，市场的趋势并没有改变。 这轮牛市已经走了一年的时间，经历了两波大幅上涨，结构性行情特点明显。大盘在突破4000点之后反 复震荡调整，出现了一定的分化。那么在获利回吐的压力之下，前期涨幅比较大的科技股出现了回调， 新能源、电力设备这些"中登股"以及白酒医药等"老登股"则是出现了轮动反弹的走势。板块轮动是市场 行情逐步深化的一个特征，也是一个健康的轮动。所以在年底马上到12月份，市场可能会迎来新一波的 反弹机会，特别是有一些资金要布局2026年的行情，可能会趁调整来进行逢低布局。 2026年中国的牛市预计将会延续，上涨节奏可能会放缓，但是各个板块将轮动起来，从而赚钱效应更 强。2026年有可能从当前的结构性牛市转向全面牛市，从而带动更多的板块回升。那么到2027年，中国 股市仍然有进一步回升的机会，也是这轮慢牛长期行情有望延续较长时间，为投资者带来较多更多的赚 钱机 ...

来源：智昇财论 曾被市场视为下月板上钉钉的美联储降息，如今因官员们就经济基本面健康度、以及顽固通胀与疲软招聘孰为主 要风险产生剧烈分歧，演变为胜负各半的博弈。本文描述了目前市场上各联储委员的立场和观点，并摘录了机构 的观点。 美联储若缩减降息规模，将导致住房与汽车信贷成本维持高位。民调数据显示，抵押贷款与汽车贷款利率高企， 正持续推升民众对生活成本过高的普遍不满。 会议前瞻：FMOC投票出现罕见反对票或成大概率事件 多位美联储观察人士预警，无论12月9日至10日会议最终决定降息与否，都可能出现异常规模的反对票。 EvercoreISI分析师克里希纳·古哈测算，若决议降息，反对票可能多达四至五张；若维持利率不变，反对票或达三 张。从美联储历来寻求政策共识的传统来看，四张反对票将构成极度罕见的局面——上一次出现四名官员集体反 对的案例，还是1992年艾伦·格林斯潘担任主席时期。美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒周一坦言，外界常批评美联储存 在"群体思维"，源于其多数决策以全票通过的形式出台。"那些指责我们搞群体思维的人，做好准备吧，"沃勒周 一在伦敦发表演讲时表示，"你们即将见证很长一段时间以来最缺乏群体思维的美联储…… ...

在阅读文章前，辛苦您点下"关注"，方便讨论和分享。作者定会不负众望，按时按量创作出更优质的内容。 文I不可史意 编辑I不可史意 前言 人工智能革命正在重塑就业市场：数据录入、初级程序员等岗位被大量替代，导致就业增长放缓；但 AI 伦理师、提示工程师等新岗位需求激增，企业抢 人推高薪资，形成严重技能错配。 大家好，小编我呀，是一个爱扒关于美国事情的热心博主，今天就跟着我一起来看看，美联储的首要顾虑，那就不得不提到始终顽固的通胀。 截至 2025 年 10 月，美国 CPI 同比增速仍停留在 3%，看似较 2022 年 9% 的峰值大幅回落，但距离 2% 的官方目标仍有 1 个百分点的差距。 这 1 个百分点，在央行语境里堪比 "地球到月球的距离"—— 美联储如同向全球承诺 "将 200 斤胖子减到 120 斤" 的教练，如今胖子刚减到 140 斤，若此时 松劲，通胀很可能反弹，此前两年激进加息的代价将全部白费，美联储的信誉也会彻底崩塌。 更棘手的是通胀的内部结构。鲍威尔重点关注的 "剔除住房的核心服务通胀" 仍高达 4.5%，这一指标直接反映工资相关的物价压力。 理发、看病、育儿、维修等服务价格持续高涨，根源在 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transformative impact of the AI revolution, suggesting it may lead to a new world akin to the Industrial Revolution, with profound implications for society, work, and human relationships [9][10][12]. Group 1: AI Revolution and Its Nature - The AI revolution is compared to previous major revolutions, indicating that it may significantly enhance human capabilities, shifting the focus from physical labor to cognitive functions [12]. - The rapid advancement of technology and knowledge in AI is described as exponential, leading to continuous cycles of discovery and innovation [12][13]. Group 2: Impact on Work and Society - AI may lead to the emergence of a "leisure class," where many professional jobs are replaced by AI, resulting in fewer people needed to perform tasks traditionally done by teams [16]. - The potential for a society where most individuals do not need to work raises questions about how people will spend their time and find purpose in a world of abundant leisure [17][19]. - Education will need to shift from preparing individuals for traditional jobs to fostering creativity and independent learning, focusing on personal development rather than workforce readiness [20][21]. Group 3: Economic and Distribution Challenges - The traditional economic model based on work for income is challenged by the rise of AI, leading to discussions about new distribution systems, such as Universal Basic Income (UBI) [23][25]. - The potential for an "abundant society" raises concerns about wealth concentration and inequality, as the benefits of AI may not be evenly distributed [26]. Group 4: Knowledge and Intellectual Property - The concept of intellectual property may need to evolve in the AI era, as creations may become collective rather than individual, complicating ownership and rights [27]. Group 5: Social Relationships and AI - The article suggests that AI will lead to a decentralization of social activities, with a shift back to more individualized and remote interactions, impacting various sectors including healthcare and education [29][30]. - The emergence of AI as a new "species" necessitates a reevaluation of human relationships, including emotional connections and societal roles [33][34]. Group 6: Global Implications - AI has the potential to foster global cooperation and reduce nationalism, as it encourages interconnectedness and shared progress [36][39]. - The article posits that the AI revolution could provide opportunities for restructuring global order, particularly in the context of US-China relations and international governance [40][41].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Overall third quarter revenue was $295.3 million, down 9.8% sequentially and 12.2% year-over-year, primarily due to the transition between major contracts in Saudi Arabia [17][18] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2025 was $64 million, representing a margin of 21.7%, consistent with Q2 2025 levels despite lower revenues [18] - Adjusted EPS for Q3 2025 was $0.16, including adjustments for certain charges and credits [19] - Gross debt totaled $332.9 million, and net debt was $263.3 million, with a net debt-to-Adjusted EBITDA ratio of 0.93 [20] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue decline was partially offset by solid growth in Kuwait, Qatar, and Iraq, with steady growth also noted in Oman, Egypt, Algeria, and Libya [17][18] - The company is positioned as the largest frac company in the Middle East, with the Jafurah tender representing the largest single-service contract in sector history [9][11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is experiencing positive activity inflection beyond Jafurah, with growth in Kuwait and the return of additional rigs in Saudi Arabia [5][27] - The geopolitical relationship between the U.S. and Gulf states is strong, positively impacting energy markets and foreign investment [8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on a countercyclical investment strategy, allowing it to capitalize on global weaknesses and position itself for growth [11][12] - NESR aims to maintain operational readiness and efficiency while investing during downturns, contrasting with traditional industry practices [12][14] - The company plans to exit 2025 with a revenue run rate of approximately $2 billion, supported by expanding contract bases and sustained execution momentum [22][24] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving a $2 billion exit run rate for 2026, with a high level of visibility on contract awards and execution [72][73] - The outlook for NESR remains favorable, supported by consistent execution on major contract wins and strategic investments [25][26] Other Important Information - The company is in the process of refinancing its debt facility, expected to enhance financial flexibility [24] - NESR is committed to maintaining disciplined debt reduction and improving working capital efficiency [25] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you respond to comments about pricing competitiveness for the Jafurah contract? - Management highlighted their deep understanding of the local ecosystem and cost control measures that allowed them to maintain margins while being competitive [31][32] Question: What is the roadmap for development at Jafurah? - Management indicated readiness to ramp up operations with multiple crews and equipment already in place, targeting significant increases in stages delivered [34][35] Question: What is the expected incremental EBITDA from Jafurah? - Management confirmed that the incremental EBITDA for 2026 is approximately $100 million, based on the projected revenue run rate [37][38] Question: Can you provide updates on NEDA projects and water initiatives? - Management stated that several pilot projects are underway, with results expected to be shared in future calls [66][68] Question: What is the confidence level in achieving the $2 billion exit run rate for 2026? - Management expressed a 99% confidence level in achieving the target, with contracts already awarded and work commenced [72][73]

工业革命之后的AI革命，可能预示着一个全新世界的诞生 从艾伦·图灵到Geoffrey Hinton，剑桥对AI领域的发展一直有着巨大贡献。如今，人工智能的迅速发展， 让越来越多人开始思考一个问题：我们是否正迈入一个真正意义上的"新世界"？ 本文根据英国国家学术院院士、剑桥大学人类学教授、国王学院终身院士艾伦·麦克法兰 （Alan Macfarlane）在腾讯研究院 AI&Society 海外专家面对面系列对话中的分享整理而 成，分享主题为"A New World is Born: Some consequences of the AI Revolution"。 没有人知道这个问题的答案。有人认为，AI被过度炒作了，其商业潜力被高估了。尽管如此，我认为 AI在其他方面的影响依然可能非常重大。 我最近访谈赫尔曼·豪瑟（Hermann Hauser）时，他曾说："我认为分析AI革命最恰当的方式，是将其与 之前的工业革命相比。"回顾历史，我们经历过两次划时代的革命：第一次是一万多年前文明的诞生， 第二次是工业革命。而现在，我们可能正站在第三次重大革命的门槛前——AI革命。无疑，我们正在 亲历一场技术革命，当下可能很难 ...

Group 1 - The theme of the 8th China Enterprise Forum is "Reshaping Growth Engines: Global Competitiveness Driven by Innovation," emphasizing the importance of innovation in driving global growth and the need for cooperation between Chinese and foreign enterprises for sustainable development and win-win outcomes [1][3] - The Deputy Director of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) highlighted that enterprises are a key part of the global economic system and should leverage innovation to reshape growth momentum while ensuring high-quality development to counter external uncertainties [3] - The President and CEO of the World Economic Forum stated that Chinese enterprises play a crucial role in shaping global innovation patterns, promoting sustainable development, and enhancing international cooperation, particularly in harnessing the potential of the AI revolution and digital economy [3] Group 2 - China Huaneng's Vice President emphasized the integration of ESG principles into the company's development strategy, focusing on accelerating non-fossil energy replacement actions and enhancing green low-carbon technology innovation [3][5] - The Vice Chairman of the China-EU Chamber of Commerce pointed out the importance of modernizing power grids for stable green electricity supply and suggested expanding green finance participation channels [4] - Huawei's Senior Vice President stated that digitalization, intelligence, and low-carbon initiatives are the three definitive directions for enterprises to achieve sustainable competitiveness through the implementation of ESG principles [5] Group 3 - Siemens Energy's Executive Director highlighted the connection between energy transition and sustainable development, advocating for the integration of ESG principles into core strategies and the expansion of renewable energy applications [5] - The General Manager of China Chemical Engineering called for continuous exploration of cooperation opportunities between Chinese and foreign enterprises to enhance the global industrial and supply chain [5] - The Deputy Director of the International Trade and Economic Cooperation Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce noted that the global supply chain is undergoing deep adjustments, and a cooperative supply chain involving China is essential for economic viability [5]

Core Insights - The eighth China Enterprise Forum emphasized the importance of innovation in reshaping growth engines and enhancing global competitiveness [1] - Key discussions focused on sustainable development paths driven by innovation and opportunities in global market expansion [1] Group 1: Innovation and Sustainable Development - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) highlighted the need for enterprises to leverage innovation to counter external uncertainties and achieve high-quality development [1] - China Huaneng's Vice President stated that integrating ESG principles into corporate development aligns with new development concepts, promoting green transformation and technological innovation [2] - Huawei's Senior Vice President emphasized that continuous R&D investment, constituting 20% of the company's revenue, is crucial for building competitive advantage and societal benefits [3] Group 2: International Cooperation and Energy Transition - Saudi Aramco's Asia Senior Vice President noted that cooperation between Chinese and foreign enterprises is critical for energy security and sustainable development, emphasizing joint innovation [4] - The French Electric Group's China Executive Vice President discussed the importance of complementary advantages in third-party market collaborations to enhance supply chain resilience [4] - The International Trade and Economic Cooperation Research Institute's Deputy Director pointed out that multinational companies need to reassess their relationships with local markets amid changing supply chain dynamics [5]

Group 1 - The Shanghai Stock Exchange's Sci-Tech Innovation Board semiconductor materials and equipment index decreased by 3.27% as of November 3, 2025, with mixed performance among constituent stocks [1] - New Yichang led the gains with a 6.00% increase, while Shen Gong fell by 7.01%, indicating volatility in the semiconductor sector [1] - The Sci-Tech Semiconductor ETF (588170) experienced a decline of 3.47%, with a latest price of 1.36 yuan, and a trading volume of 2.21 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - Galaxy Securities highlighted the emphasis on supply chain security and self-sufficiency, accelerating the validation process for domestic materials [2] - High-end products such as KrF/ArF photoresists and CMP polishing liquids are identified as key areas for breakthroughs, driven by the expansion of HBM and advanced logic chip production capacity [2] - The semiconductor materials ETF (562590) focuses on upstream semiconductor equipment and materials, benefiting from the low domestic replacement rate and high ceiling for domestic substitution [2]

Core Insights - The global trade system is facing severe challenges, with average tariffs in major economies rising from 2.8% to over 20%, highlighting the importance of maintaining a rules-based multilateral trade system to avoid trade wars [1] Group 1: Economic Challenges - Developing countries are caught in a dual crisis of "debt default" and "development stagnation," forced to make difficult choices between debt repayment and infrastructure investment [1] - Global investment has shrunk for the second consecutive year and is unevenly distributed, with financing costs for developing countries significantly higher than those in developed nations; for instance, financing costs in Zambia are three times higher than in Zurich [1] Group 2: Inequality and Technological Gaps - The technological divide is exacerbating inequality, as most developing countries are unprepared for the artificial intelligence revolution [1] - Despite the global economy exceeding one hundred trillion dollars, half of the population has experienced stagnant income, and international trust continues to erode [1] Group 3: Call for International Cooperation - The UN General Assembly President emphasized the urgent need for the international community to strengthen cooperation and rebuild trust in light of the multiple pressures of debt burdens, insufficient investment, and trade uncertainty [1]