Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the issue of the manufacturing industry's proportion in China's GDP, emphasizing the need to maintain a "reasonable proportion" as outlined in the 14th Five-Year Plan, with a projected manufacturing share of 24.9% in 2024 [2][3]. Analysis Framework: Decomposition of Manufacturing Proportion - A framework is constructed to analyze the manufacturing proportion in a country's economy, defined as the ratio of domestic manufacturing to GDP, which can be expressed in terms of global manufacturing and GDP shares [4][11]. - Despite a low manufacturing share in the U.S. economy, its large economic size results in a significant global manufacturing share of 16.9%, lower than China's 27.5% but higher than Japan, Germany, and South Korea [11][12]. - South Korea has a high manufacturing share of 26.1%, but its small economic size limits its global manufacturing share to only 2.7% [11][12]. Three Factors Consideration Factor 1: Global Manufacturing Share of GDP - The global manufacturing share of GDP has been declining from 25% in 1970 to a projected 15.1% in 2024, indicating that even if a country's economic and manufacturing shares reach historical highs, the manufacturing proportion may not achieve similar levels [5][14]. Factor 2: National Manufacturing Share of Global Manufacturing - China's manufacturing global share is projected to be 27.7% in 2024, significantly higher than the U.S. peak of 27% in the early 1980s and Japan's peak of over 20% in the early 1990s [5][17]. - The comparative advantage of manufacturing is calculated, with China having a ratio of 1.61, higher than the U.S. at 0.65, indicating a stronger manufacturing position relative to its economic size [12][18]. Factor 3: National GDP Share of Global GDP - In 2024, the U.S. GDP is expected to account for 26.3% of the global total, while China's share is projected at 16.8%, with Japan and Germany at 3.6% and 4.2%, respectively [6][23]. - The IMF forecasts global GDP growth between 3-3.2% from 2026 to 2030, with expectations that China's growth will exceed this range, potentially increasing its global economic share [6][23].