Core Viewpoint - Franklin Templeton's Kelly Investment report suggests that the strong dollar trend of the past 15 years may be ending, with a weaker dollar expected in the first half of 2025, although recent stability in exchange rates indicates that the decline may be due to cyclical factors [1] Group 1: Factors Influencing Dollar Weakness - The weakening of the dollar is attributed to risk-averse operations concerning U.S. assets, ongoing structural challenges from the expanding U.S. federal deficit, and trade and tariff policies from the Trump administration [1] - Short-term, the likelihood of significant depreciation of the dollar against major Asian currencies is low, as China is unlikely to allow substantial appreciation of the yuan while dealing with deflationary pressures, and the yen remains significantly undervalued [1] Group 2: Long-term Economic Outlook - In the medium term, U.S. economic growth is expected to lead globally again, which may limit downward pressure on the dollar [1] - The U.S. maintains a leading position in the AI sector, with approximately 2,000 more data centers than the combined total of the next ten countries, suggesting that ongoing infrastructure support for AI could enhance productivity and provide economic benefits that support the dollar [1] Group 3: Implications for Global Markets - The relationship between the dollar's performance and stock market performance has been closely linked over the past 50 years, indicating that the future direction of the dollar will have profound implications for global stock market leadership [1] - Investors are advised to reassess their global asset allocation, as the dynamics of the next decade may differ significantly from those of the past decade [1]