从目前的形势看，特朗普总统会逐步实现它掌控美联储的愿望。如果是这样，那么未来美元大幅走软将 是显而易见的结果，美国联邦基金利率水平也会大幅下调。泛滥的美元会再一次在美国资本市场，乃至 全球资本市场兴风作浪。 媒体报道，美国总统特朗普以涉嫌抵押贷款违规为由宣布解除美联储非洲裔女性理事库克的职务。 在随后的声明中，库克表示特朗普解除其美联储理事职务非法。不过，无论此次库克的职务是否真正能 够被特朗普总统解除，市场都更加担忧美联储在货币政策上的独立性会受到进一步的侵蚀。 一段时间以来，特朗普总统在不断地施压美联储尽快降息。而美联储主席鲍威尔则以关税政策可能引发 的通货膨胀反弹为由拒绝降息。不过，在刚刚结束的杰克逊霍尔央行年会上，鲍威尔在降息问题上谨慎 松口。可是，对于特朗普总统来说，这似乎还远远不够，他希望能够完全掌控美联储的货币政策走向。 为此，特朗普总统必须保证在美联储中有足够的"自己人"。 正如笔者在先前文章中阐述的，随着特朗普总统逐步掌控美联储，美国资本市场会回到2008年金融危机 前的戏码，表面的繁荣背后隐藏着巨大的风险。 JerryZang 免责声明：本文内容及观点仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议。投资者据 ...

本文源自：金融界AI电报 澳大利亚联邦银行经济学家卡普索说，美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔年度研讨会上发表的讲话将成为 美元走势的下一个催化剂。不过，不要指望鲍威尔会在任何一个方向上发出明确的信号。卡普索说，他 可能会保留自己的选择，等待更多的数据。但如果鲍威尔表示愿意降息，预计市场将更充分地定价9月 份的降息，美元将温和下跌。他说，9月份的降息概率目前在70%左右，这为鲍威尔脱离市场预期设定 了一个很高的门槛。 ...

Group 1 - French Agricultural Credit Bank analysts indicate that Japan's corporate capital expenditure is expected to become cautious due to U.S. tariffs and concerns over global economic slowdown, potentially leading to a quarter-on-quarter contraction in Japan's economy in Q3 2025 [2] - Barclays Bank reports a surge in European high-yield bond issuance driven by refinancing needs and increased dividend payments, with issuance surpassing €80 billion since 2025, marking the second-highest level for the period [2] - ING analysts suggest that if geopolitical risks ease, the dollar may face downward pressure due to reduced safe-haven demand, while strong U.S. inflation data has led to a reassessment of Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, supporting the dollar [3] Group 2 - Analysts believe the Bank of England may maintain a cautious interest rate stance for the remainder of 2025, with expectations to pause rate cuts in September and December, providing key support for the pound [4]

报告称，即使CPI月环比仅以0.1%的温和幅度增长，CPI同比到年底仍会回升至2.9%左右，较上半年 2.3%-2.4%的水平明显上升。 美银指出，这种"通胀上行、利率下行"的组合相当罕见。1973年以来，美联储在通胀上升时降息的概率 仅为16%。 美联储若在今年降息，市场将见证利率下行和通胀回升共存的罕见场景。 而历史数据显示，这一情景对美元而言通常是利空信号，美元同期平均贬值1.6%，并在降息前就开始 贬值，降息后1个月和3个月内分别下跌0.3%，直到6个月后才反弹1.7%。 据追风交易台消息，美银分析师Howard Du领导的全球研究团队在其最新研报中表示，市场目前已将9 月份美联储降息25个基点的概率定价至接近100%，今年剩余时间累计降息预期至少达到两次。如果美 联储重启降息周期，任何今年的降息都可能在通胀同比上升的背景下进行。 | Exhibit 1: Fed rate cut amid rising YoY inflation is bearish for USD | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Same-period and subseq ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - Global economic growth is slowing, with an expected growth rate of approximately 1% in the second half of the year [1][2] - The U.S. is anticipated to begin cutting interest rates three times starting in September [1][2] - Trade agreements have led to slight GDP forecast increases for Europe, Japan, and South Korea, while the European Central Bank's rate remains unchanged at 2% [2] - The U.S.-China trade relationship remains stable, with both sides agreeing to extend a 90-day period without increasing tariffs [1][2] Key Points and Arguments - U.S. labor market data has shown signs of a downturn, with a revised growth forecast of 1.2% for the first half of the year and a similar expectation for the second half [2] - India's GDP forecast has been slightly downgraded due to a 25% retaliatory tariff, with revisions for Q4 GDP also noted [2] - Inflation is expected to rise in the coming months, with a need to closely monitor oil prices as supply constraints could have significant impacts [3][8] - The Indian central bank's upcoming meeting is under scrutiny due to domestic economic challenges and potential interest rate hikes [3][9] Market Dynamics - Following the release of Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data, the U.S. dollar surged, but market conditions have since stabilized, leading to increased volatility against Asian currencies [4] - The U.S. labor market's turning point has led to a reassessment of growth prospects and interest rate expectations, reigniting predictions of a weaker dollar [5] - Selective trading strategies are favored in the current environment, particularly in Hong Kong and India, where managing front-end inflation is crucial [6] Additional Insights - The Indian central bank's intervention strategies have evolved, focusing on smoothing market fluctuations rather than directly preventing volatility [11] - India's current economic status includes approximately $695 billion in reserves, with a trade deficit of about $18 billion last month, primarily influenced by oil prices [12] - Upcoming data releases from China and the Bank of England's meeting are critical points of interest, alongside potential nominations for the new governor of the Federal Reserve [13]

Summary of Morgan Stanley Global Macro Forum Call Industry Overview - **Focus**: Global macroeconomic trends, particularly in the US economy and interest rates - **Key Participants**: Vishwanath Tirupattur, Michael Gapen, Seth Carpenter, Matthew Hornbach, Martin Tobias, James Lord Key Points Economic Indicators - **2Q GDP Performance**: Domestic demand has softened significantly, slowing to a 1.2% pace from 2.7% in the previous year [5] - **Labor Market Trends**: There is a sharp drop-off in labor demand, with downward revisions to May and June employment figures totaling 258,000 [40][7] - **Recession Signals**: A deceleration in nonfarm payrolls is more closely correlated with recession risk than revisions to prior data [11] Central Bank Policies - **Federal Reserve Outlook**: The expectation is that the Fed will maintain its current policy stance, with no rate cuts projected until March 2026 despite rising inflation [40] - **Global Central Banks**: The Fed and the Bank of Japan are expected to remain on hold, while the European Central Bank and the Bank of England may ease policies this year [40] Interest Rates and Market Dynamics - **Market-Implied Rates**: The market is pricing the Fed's policy trough rate to move well below 3.00% [15][40] - **Term Premiums**: Concerns regarding the quality of US economic data and a dovish bias from the FOMC are expected to keep term premiums elevated [40] - **USD Outlook**: Continued weakness in the USD is anticipated, with expectations that the bear market for the currency is not over [40] Treasury Issuance - **Composition of Treasury Issuance**: Bills have been crucial in financing Treasury's borrowing needs, and this trend is expected to continue, leading to a lower weighted average maturity (WAM) of marketable debt [28][31][40] Investment Strategies - **Recommended Positions**: - Long UST 5-year notes and FVU5 futures - Short 10-year TIPS breakevens - Long January 2026 fed funds futures - Stay short USD [40][41] Additional Insights - **Tariff Impact**: Evidence of tariff pass-through is becoming clearer, with prices of goods exposed to tariffs showing sharper increases [40] - **Inflation Concerns**: Inflation remains a significant concern for the Fed, with expectations of price pressures in heavily tariffed goods [40] Conclusion The call highlighted a cooling US economy with significant implications for labor demand and central bank policies. The anticipated trajectory of interest rates and the ongoing weakness of the USD present both risks and opportunities for investors. The focus on Treasury issuance and the impact of tariffs on inflation further complicate the macroeconomic landscape.

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report discusses the end of the dollar bear market and highlights significant impacts from trade agreements involving over $600 billion in investments and $750 billion in U.S. energy procurement, which have notably influenced the foreign exchange market [1][3] - The Federal Reserve's cautious stance on inflation and its focus on labor market reports suggest a potential rebound risk for the dollar if unemployment rates do not rise as expected [1][4] - Trade policy uncertainty is currently showing a positive change rate, indicating that if uncertainty decreases, the dollar may rise to levels suggested by yield differentials [6] - A reduction in oil imports from Russia could pressure the global oil market, raising oil prices and negatively impacting emerging market currencies, while potentially delaying Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, thus providing some support for the dollar [1][7] Summary by Sections Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve is adopting a cautious approach, awaiting more evidence on inflation to assess potential price level adjustments and their ripple effects [4] - If the unemployment rate does not rise as anticipated, the risk of a dollar rebound increases [4] - The Fed may need to implement two to three rate cuts by the end of 2026 to maintain a neutral policy stance [5] Trade Policy Uncertainty - The current positive change rate in trade policy uncertainty suggests that the worst may be over, and a reduction in uncertainty could lead to a dollar increase [6] - The negative impacts of tariffs are expected to manifest in the fourth quarter, potentially necessitating significant rate cuts by the Fed in 2026 to address economic slowdowns [6] Oil Price Movements - A decrease in oil imports from Russia could lead to higher global oil prices, adversely affecting emerging market currencies that are oil importers [7] - Recent increases in Brent crude oil prices from $68-69 per barrel to over $72 have contributed to the underperformance of currencies like the yen [7] - Typically, a strengthening dollar index results in corresponding depreciation of emerging market currencies, with the potential for further weakening if oil prices rise due to reduced imports from Russia [8]

#报告 渣打美元走势展望及客户常见问题答疑None (@None):None ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent non-farm payroll data indicates a decline in employment market resilience, suggesting a potential for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates in September if inflation does not exceed expectations in the coming months [1][5]. Employment Data Analysis - The significant downward revisions of employment numbers for May and June were attributed to seasonal adjustments and new feedback from surveyed companies, with May's employment revised down by 125,000 to 19,000 and June's by 133,000 to 14,000, marking the largest revision since the pandemic [1][2]. - The employment growth is primarily supported by the education and healthcare sectors, with July adding 79,000 jobs in these areas, while other sectors showed negative growth, particularly in leisure, hospitality, and manufacturing, which lost 11,000 jobs [3][4]. Labor Market Dynamics - The duration of unemployment has increased, with a notable rise in the number of individuals receiving unemployment benefits and those unemployed for over 27 weeks since 2025, indicating a growing challenge in job recovery [3][4]. - The labor force participation rate has declined due to reduced immigration, contributing to a lower unemployment rate despite weak job growth, as the labor supply has tightened [4]. Wage Growth and Economic Outlook - Wage growth remains resilient, with average hourly earnings in the private sector increasing both year-on-year and month-on-month in July, alongside a 0.9% rise in the labor cost index for Q2 [4]. - The weak employment data enhances the feasibility of interest rate cuts, with market expectations for rate reductions increasing to approximately 2.7 times within the year, influenced by the recent employment figures and manufacturing PMI [5].

特朗普称，鲍威尔根本不适合担任美联储主席一职，他正在让国家损失数万亿美元。 特朗普再次提到美联储大楼翻新事件，他说鲍威尔进行着建筑史上最错误、最腐败的建筑翻新。"换句 话说，'太迟先生'是一个彻头彻尾的失败者，我们的国家正在为此付出代价！" 美联储主席鲍威尔在本周三的会议上宣布维持利率不变，并暗示9月份降息的可能性还很低。 尽管美国总统特朗普此前多次公开呼吁美联储大幅降息，甚至威胁要解雇美联储主席鲍威尔，但这些行 动均未奏效。本次利率决议结果符合市场预期，美联储连续第五次"按兵不动"。 特朗普在社交媒体上表示："'太迟先生'杰罗姆·鲍威尔又是老样子！他行动太迟了，而且实际上，他太 愤怒、太愚蠢、太政治化了。" 【导读】特朗普再次抨击鲍威尔，称其不适合担任美联储主席 7月31日，美联储公布7月份货币政策会议决议，将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%至4.50%之间不 变。 CME"美联储观察"数据显示，美联储9月维持利率不变的概率达60.8%，降息25个基点的概率为39.2%； 美联储10月维持利率不变的概率为37.5%，累计降息25个基点的概率为47.5%，累计降息50个基点的概 率为15%。 据悉，特朗普 ...