Core Insights - The report indicates that the US dollar may test its yearly high again in the short term, suggesting potential volatility in currency markets [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The report highlights that recent economic data points to a strengthening US economy, which could support the dollar's value [1] - Inflation rates are projected to remain elevated, influencing the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Financial markets are expected to react to any changes in interest rates, with potential impacts on equity and bond markets [1] - Investors are advised to monitor geopolitical developments that could affect currency stability [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The precious metals market is in a stage of oscillatory repair after a rapid correction. The driving force has shifted from single - factor risk - aversion to a dual - game of "geopolitical support + re - inflation constraint". Gold has underlying support, while silver shows higher volatility [1]. - Gold is in an oscillatory repair stage under high - volatility conditions. Geopolitical uncertainties provide support, but high oil prices and a strong US dollar limit its upward potential. The market is unlikely to return to a unilateral loose - trading stage in the short term and is more likely to maintain an oscillatory repair pattern [2]. - Silver follows the repair trend of precious metals but has significantly higher volatility than gold. It is more easily affected by market sentiment and industrial product pricing in the short term. Its price may show alternating repair and retracement characteristics [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals Market Overview - The Middle East situation is still in a stage of high - level fluctuations, with negotiation signals and military pressure coexisting. The geopolitical risk premium has not significantly declined. Oil prices remain high, suppressing the market's expectations for the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm, and the US dollar is generally strong [1]. Gold - **Viewpoint**: Gold is in an oscillatory repair stage under high - volatility conditions. Geopolitical uncertainties provide support, while high oil prices and a strong US dollar limit its upward potential [2]. - **Logic**: The Middle East situation still has risks in military deployment, energy transportation security, and regional spill - over, making it difficult for the market to fully unwind the geopolitical premium. High oil prices increase concerns about inflation stickiness and the Fed's delayed interest - rate cuts, constraining gold's upward momentum. After a rapid decline, the repair of gold prices indicates that allocation demand still exists, but the market has not returned to a unilateral loose - trading stage [2]. - **Outlook**: Attention should be paid to the evolution of the Middle East situation, oil - price transmission, and changes in the Fed's policy expectations. If geopolitical risks continue to escalate, gold still has allocation value; if negotiation expectations rise and high oil prices continue to suppress the interest - rate cut space, the upward slope of gold may be limited [2]. Silver - **Viewpoint**: Silver follows the repair trend but has higher volatility than gold and is more easily affected by market sentiment and industrial product pricing in the short term [2][3]. - **Logic**: Silver benefits from the overall stabilization and repair of precious metals and has higher price elasticity when gold stops falling. The increase in energy prices has begun to be transmitted to the industrial product chain, supporting silver's sentiment. However, due to its dual financial and industrial attributes, silver's price fluctuates more in a strong - dollar and risk - asset - pressured environment, showing alternating repair and retracement [3]. - **Outlook**: If gold continues to repair and industrial product sentiment remains strong, silver has room for a supplementary increase; if the US dollar remains strong or the market shifts back to liquidity - contraction trading, silver's volatility may further increase [3]. Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: Not detailed in the content. - **Special Index**: The commodity index is 2535.43, up 0.96%; the commodity 20 index is 2829.64, up 1.01%; the industrial products index is 2584.88, up 1.10% [43]. - **Plate Index**: The precious metals index on March 30, 2026, is 3769.72, with a daily increase of 1.46%, a 5 - day increase of 2.88%, a 1 - month decrease of 18.56%, and a year - to - date decrease of 1.43% [45].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Huatai Securities emphasizes that while historical patterns can provide insights, they do not repeat exactly. The 1970s stagflation can be divided into three phases: initial inflation speculation, a tug-of-war between inflation and economic stagnation, and finally, economic stagnation dominating with inflation receding [2]. Group 1: Historical Context and Asset Performance - The analysis of the 1970s shows that gold was the only major asset to achieve positive real returns after adjusting for inflation, despite experiencing significant drawdowns during its long-term uptrend [5][8]. - Gold's performance during key periods in the 1970s was exceptional, with a total increase of 829.1% from January 1966 to December 1985, making it the best-performing asset class [8][9]. - The first oil crisis (October 1973 to March 1974) saw gold rise by 76.5%, while the S&P 500 fell by 13.2% [8][9]. Group 2: Current Market Dynamics - Recent market conditions have led to gold and silver underperforming, primarily due to a strong dollar and liquidity constraints, which have caused investors to liquidate gold for cash [14][16]. - The current phase is characterized by a tightening liquidity environment, which has resulted in significant outflows from gold, indicating its role as a "liquidity withdrawal machine" [26][29]. - The market is currently oscillating between the first and second phases of stagflation, with concerns about inflation reigniting and liquidity tightening [22][30]. Group 3: Investment Strategy and Future Outlook - Investors should focus on key variables that will determine gold's next trend, including the persistence of oil price shocks, the peak of the dollar, and the potential for credit risk exposure [30][31]. - The report suggests that gold's volatility will continue, reflecting a pattern of "upward—liquidation—then upward" similar to the 1970s, as investors adapt to the current market conditions [31].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Aluminum: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term balance between long and short trends with poor operability, advising to wait and see [1] - Alumina: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term balance between long and short trends with poor operability, advising to wait and see [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term balance between long and short trends with poor operability, advising to wait and see [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆, indicating a bearish bias with a downward - driving trend but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Tin: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term balance between long and short trends with poor operability, advising to wait and see [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term balance between long and short trends with poor operability, advising to wait and see [1] - Industrial Silicon: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term balance between long and short trends with poor operability, advising to wait and see [1] - Polysilicon: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term balance between long and short trends with poor operability, advising to wait and see [1] Core Views - The market is affected by various factors such as the Fed's interest - rate decisions, geopolitical situations, and supply - demand relationships. Different metals have different price trends and investment opportunities [2][3][4] Summary by Metal Copper - On Tuesday, the Shanghai copper contract's position shifted to the 2605 contract at the end of the session, and the price turned down. After the contract change, the domestic spot copper was reported at 100,220 yuan, with discounts in Shanghai and Guangdong. Technically, attention should be paid to the performance in the dense moving - average area. The Fed is likely to "stand pat" this week, and the core of the market is the war situation. The decline in copper prices is supported by spot buying interest, but the uncertain war situation and high visible inventory may lead Shanghai copper to seek support at 98,000 yuan or even lower. The intensity of the shift of market speculation sentiment to risk - aversion is worthy of attention [2] Aluminum and Alumina - Shanghai aluminum fluctuated, and the spot discounts in East China, Central China, and South China widened. The total social inventory of domestic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods reached 1.72 million tons, the highest in recent years. However, production cuts in Qatar and Bahrain under the background of low overseas inventory intensified supply concerns. Aluminum prices fluctuated sharply at historical highs, and the previous high level was a resistance. The cast - aluminum - alloy market was mediocre, and the price continued to fluctuate with aluminum prices. The domestic alumina operating capacity stabilized at around 94 million tons after a decline, and the oversupply situation improved. The index in various regions rose by 10 - 20 yuan today. The short - term market is affected by the expected mineral - restriction policy in Guinea [3] Zinc - Domestic zinc ingots need to reduce prices to destock before price stabilization can be seen. The zinc - concentrate inventory of smelters has rebounded, and the domestic - mine TC has rebounded first. Concerns about the marginal tightening of macro - liquidity have put pressure on zinc prices. The de - stocking rhythm in the peak season should be continuously tracked. Shanghai zinc has fallen below the 24,000 - yuan integer mark, and there is still room for further decline. The annual oversupply expectation remains unchanged, and the general direction is to short on rebounds [4] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel fluctuated in a narrow range, and the market trading was active. The market is worried about the Fed's liquidity control, and the strong US dollar has put overall pressure on the market. The spot price of Jinchuan nickel has declined, and the price of high - nickel pig iron with a grade of 10 - 12% has increased by 3 yuan per point, reaching 1,095 yuan per point. The rebound in upstream prices has continued to drive up the mid - stream prices and provided cost support. In the short term, it is still dominated by policy sentiment. The pure - nickel inventory has increased by 3,000 tons to 87,500 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory has decreased by 20,000 tons to 998,000 tons. Attention should be paid to further changes in Indonesian policies, and the overall trend is a weak shock [7] Tin - Shanghai tin closed down with a reduction in positions, and the short - term price was under pressure at the MA60 moving average. The market is highly concerned about the risk of the Middle - East situation. The overnight rebound of the US stock market and the NVIDIA annual conference's promotion of the computing - power demand outlook have temporarily eased the decline of tin prices. On the supply side, it is expected to maintain a stable supply trend, and Steel Union expects the domestic refined - tin output to be in the normal production schedule in March. It is expected that the tin price may fluctuate towards 350,000 yuan [8] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate rebounded in a volatile manner, and the market trading was active. The downstream production situation was good, and the lithium - iron - phosphate enterprises were still relatively active in production. The total market inventory decreased by 400 tons to 99,000 tons, the smelter inventory decreased by 1,200 tons to 16,300 tons, the downstream inventory increased by 200 tons to 44,000 tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 37,000 tons. The overall destocking speed has slowed down, and the change in the inventory structure is worthy of attention. The decline in smelter inventory has slowed down, and the confidence of traders in hoarding goods has wavered, and they have started to sell to the downstream. In terms of production, the lithium - carbonate production has returned to a high level at the beginning of March, and the weekly production has reached a new high. The lithium - carbonate futures price fluctuates, and the fundamentals are stronger than the expected end. It is advisable to consider going long on the near - month spread [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial - silicon futures closed down in a volatile manner. On the supply side, the weekly supply increased slightly. The output in the Southwest region was low, the resumption of production of leading enterprises in Xinjiang accelerated, and the operation in the Northwest production area was stable. On the demand side, the operation rate of organic silicon increased slightly, but downstream procurement was cautious, and the price support was limited. The polysilicon market was weak, the operation rate of small and medium - sized manufacturers declined, and the willingness to stock up on raw materials was insufficient. Affected by the energy conflict before, the cost expectation has increased. Currently, the market has returned to fundamental trading, and it is expected that the industrial - silicon price will be mainly in a weak shock [10] Polysilicon - The polysilicon price continued to run weakly. According to SMM data, the average price of N - type dense material was 43,000 yuan per ton, a decrease of 500 yuan per ton compared with the previous day, and the market bearish sentiment was strong. The resumption of production in the industry in March was slow, and the resumption of some small and medium - sized manufacturers was postponed due to the market situation. As the "rush - for - export" window period approaches, the support of downstream battery - sheet orders has weakened, the price has fallen under pressure, the silicon - wafer segment has also weakened, and the market's willingness to bottom - fish and stock up on polysilicon is weak. SMM statistics show that the polysilicon enterprise inventory has reached 357,000 tons, an increase of 9,000 tons week - on - week, at a stage high. It is comprehensively judged that the polysilicon futures are likely to maintain a weak trend in the short term [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - This week, copper prices fluctuated weakly mainly due to continuous Middle - East geopolitical conflicts stimulating market inflation expectations, driving up the US dollar and suppressing copper prices. Although there are frequent resource problems in mines and recycled copper, electrolytic copper production is not affected. Downstream demand in the copper products sector has slightly recovered, and inventory has decreased, but the pattern of loose supply and demand has not been reversed. Poor terminal performance and high - level inventory pressure still suppress the upward movement of copper prices. If the war continues and inflation expectations continue to rise, copper prices will remain weak. If the situation eases, oil prices fall and the US dollar declines, copper prices may have a driving force for rebound [3] Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - **Macro**: The Middle - East geopolitical situation remains tense. If the war continues, inflation pressure will rise, the US dollar will strengthen, and copper prices will be further depressed. The market generally expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged, and the expectation of three interest rate cuts this year has converged to one, so the US dollar provides weak support for copper prices [3] - **Supply**: In February 2026, China imported 2.31 million tons of copper concentrates and their ores, a year - on - year increase of 6.0% and a month - on - month decrease of 12.0%. From January to February 2026, the import volume was 4.934 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.9%. Domestic copper concentrate inventory is at a relatively low level compared with previous years. Due to tight overseas copper resources and difficult shipments affected by the war, copper resource shortages still support copper prices. The price difference between refined and scrap copper in mainstream areas has declined. The output of electrolytic copper in March increased by 52,800 tons month - on - month, a year - on - year increase of 6.51% [3] - **Demand**: After entering the peak seasons (March and April) for copper products, the start - up rate has begun to rise. In February, the start - up rate of the copper cable industry was 55.81%, a month - on - month decrease of 14.29 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 9.06 percentage points. The start - up rate of refined copper rod enterprises was 46.26%, a month - on - month decrease of 19.38 percentage points, 3.89 percentage points lower than the expected value, and a year - on - year decrease of 9.58 percentage points. Terminal data shows no optimistic performance, and the terminal's feedback on copper prices is weak. The production and sales of new energy vehicles were 694,000 and 765,000 respectively, a year - on - year decrease of 21.8% and 14.2% [3] 2. Shanghai Copper Price Trend - This week, Shanghai copper fluctuated weakly. The highest price was 101,980 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 98,370 yuan/ton, the weekly increase or decrease was - 0.73%, and the range amplitude was 3.57% [5] 3. Shanghai Copper Spot Market - As of March 16, the average spot premium in East China was 60 yuan/ton, and the average premium in South China was 20 yuan/ton. The market had a strong willingness to support prices this week, and spot quotes were mainly at a premium. Next week, the volume of imported cleared goods may increase, and spot prices are expected to fluctuate at a discount [11] 4. LME Copper Spread Structure - As of March 13, LME copper rose 0.05% during the week, closing at $12,847/ton, with a spot premium of - $89/ton [16] 5. Copper Concentrate Supply - In February 2026, China imported 2.31 million tons of copper concentrates and their ores, a year - on - year increase of 6.0% and a month - on - month decrease of 12.0%. From January to February 2026, the import volume was 4.934 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.9%. Domestic copper concentrate inventory is at a relatively low level compared with previous years. Glencore's copper refinery in Australia has gone on strike due to a salary dispute [21] 6. Scrap Copper Supply - As of March 13, the price difference between refined and scrap copper in mainstream areas fell to 1,473 yuan/ton. In 2025, China imported 2.3427 million physical tons of scrap copper, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4% [25] 7. Smelter Fees - As of March 13, China's spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - $60.12/dry ton, and the RC fee was - 6.10 cents/pound. Some smelters plan to conduct regular maintenance from March to May. The China Copper Smelters Purchasing Consortium (CSPT) announced a joint production cut of more than 10% in 2026, and the long - term processing fee for copper concentrates in 2026 was set at $0/ton and 0 cents/pound [30] 8. Refined Copper Supply - It is expected that the output in March will increase by 52,800 tons month - on - month, a year - on - year increase of 6.51%. In February, Chile's copper exports to China increased from a low level, but its exports of copper ores to China decreased. In December 2025, the import of unwrought copper and copper products was 437,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.8%. From January to December 2025, the cumulative import was 5.321 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.4% [35] 9. Apparent Demand - As of December 2025, the apparent consumption of copper was 1.3188 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.00% [39] 10. Copper Product Industry - In February, the start - up rate of the copper cable industry was 55.81%, and the start - up rate of refined copper rod enterprises was 46.26% [43] 11. Power Grid Project Data - As of the end of 2025, the national cumulative installed power generation capacity was 3.89 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 16.1%. The average utilization hours of power generation equipment in power plants above 6,000 kilowatts decreased by 312 hours compared with the same period of the previous year [47] 12. Real Estate and Infrastructure Data - In February 2026, the decline in the sales prices of commercial residential buildings in 70 large and medium - sized cities continued to narrow month - on - month and decreased year - on - year. From January to February, national real estate development investment was 961.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.1% [52] 13. Automobile/New Energy Automobile Industry Data - In February 2026, China's automobile production and sales were 1.672 million and 1.805 million respectively, a year - on - year decrease of 20.5% and 15.2%. The production and sales of new energy vehicles were 694,000 and 765,000 respectively, a year - on - year decrease of 21.8% and 14.2%. The export of new energy vehicles was 282,000, a year - on - year increase of 1.1 times [56] 14. Copper Inventories in Major Global Exchanges - As of March 13, LME copper inventory increased by 27,500 tons to 311,800 tons week - on - week, a 9.67% increase, and 31.46% higher year - on - year. COMEX copper inventory was 591,600 tons, a 1.05% decrease week - on - week and 538.09% higher year - on - year. As of March 12, the bonded - area inventories in Shanghai and Guangdong continued to increase. As of March 13, Shanghai Futures copper inventory was 315,100 tons, a 0.13% decrease week - on - week; cathode copper inventory was 391,500 tons, a 1.96% increase week - on - week [61][66]

Report Overview - The report is a daily analysis of core futures varieties, released on March 16, 2026 [3] Commodity Performance - As of the close on January 16, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Asphalt rose over 10%, bottle chips rose over 7%, ethylene glycol (EG) and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) rose over 3%, low-sulfur fuel oil (LU), propylene, polypropylene (PP), plastic, and palm oil rose over 2%. In terms of declines, Shanghai silver fell over 6%, palladium fell over 4%, platinum, container shipping on the European line, rapeseed meal, polysilicon, Shanghai tin, and live pigs fell over 3%, and glass and Shanghai gold fell over 2% [6] - Among stock index futures, the CSI 300 index futures (IF) main contract rose 0.08%, the SSE 50 index futures (IH) main contract fell 0.26%, the CSI 500 index futures (IC) main contract fell 0.62%, and the CSI 1000 index futures (IM) main contract fell 0.23%. Among treasury bond futures, the 2-year treasury bond futures (TS) main contract fell 0.04%, the 5-year treasury bond futures (TF) main contract fell 0.08%, the 10-year treasury bond futures (T) main contract fell 0.11%, and the 30-year treasury bond futures (TL) main contract fell 0.43% [7] Market Analysis Copper - Shanghai copper opened and closed lower. Tensions in the Middle East remain high, and if the conflict continues, inflation pressure will rise, strengthening the US dollar and suppressing copper prices. The market expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged, and the expectation of three interest rate cuts this year has converged to one, providing weak support for copper prices [9] - In February 2026, China imported 2.31 million tons of copper concentrates and their ores, a year-on-year increase of 6.0% and a month-on-month decrease of 12.0%. From January to February 2026, China imported 4.934 million tons of copper concentrates and their ores, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%. Domestic copper concentrate inventories are at a relatively low level compared to previous years, and the shortage of copper resources still supports copper prices [9] - The spread between refined and scrap copper in mainstream areas has narrowed. The output of electrolytic copper in March increased by 52,800 tons month-on-month and 6.51% year-on-year. On the demand side, the copper product sector has seen an increase in开工 after the "Golden March and Silver April." However, terminal data shows no optimistic performance, and the feedback on copper prices from the terminal is weak. New energy vehicle production and sales decreased by 21.8% and 14.2% year-on-year respectively [9] - Overall, copper prices are expected to be weak this week. If the war continues and inflation expectations rise, copper prices will remain weak. If the situation eases, copper prices may rebound [10] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened and closed lower today but rebounded at the end of the session. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 156,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,500 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day. The average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate was 153,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,500 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day [11] - Lithium concentrate exports from all lithium producers in Zimbabwe have been suspended. Local lithium mining companies are submitting new export license applications to the Zimbabwean government, and the approval process is expected to take 2 to 4 weeks. The domestic production schedule in March 2026 is 106,700 tons, a month-on-month increase of 29.4%. There is a high probability of复产 in the domestic lithium mining sector, which is a potential negative factor [11] - Overall inventory continues to decline, but the decline rate is narrowing. Downstream inventory continues to accumulate, but the accumulation rate has slowed down. Terminal demand shows a marginal weakening trend. Overall, the supply and demand of lithium carbonate are marginally weakening. If the news of the new export license application is confirmed, the previous gains may be reversed. The supply is expected to continue to increase, while the demand is approaching the photovoltaic tariff window period. The market is expected to be in a wide range of fluctuations in the short term [11] Crude Oil - EIA data shows that the increase in US crude oil inventories exceeded expectations, but the decrease in refined oil inventories was significant, resulting in an overall decrease in oil product inventories [12] - The US, Israel, and Iran are still attacking each other. Iran's daily oil production is about 3.3 million barrels, accounting for 3% of global production, and its daily exports are about 1.6 million barrels. The Strait of Hormuz, where Iran is located, is a major shipping route for crude oil. The near-complete suspension of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz for several days has led to production cuts in Middle Eastern oil-producing countries [12][13] - Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, and Kuwait have cut production by up to 6.7 million barrels per day, equivalent to one-third of their total production capacity and about 6% of global supply. Although Trump said the war is basically over, Iran has stated that it controls the passage of the Strait of Hormuz and has fired on some merchant ships. The US Energy Secretary said it is "highly likely" to provide escort for ships in the Strait of Hormuz by the end of this month [13] - The IEA has announced the release of up to 400 million barrels of strategic oil reserves, but the delivery speed is slow. The US Treasury Department has temporarily relaxed sanctions on Russian maritime oil. These measures have alleviated short-term supply pressure, but are still less than the previous crude oil shipping volume in the Strait of Hormuz. The risk of crude oil price spikes remains, and the frequent news of the Middle East situation has a significant impact on crude oil prices [13] Asphalt - On the supply side, the asphalt开工率 decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 23.0% last week, which is 5.5 percentage points lower than the same period last year. In March 2026, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2.187 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 251,000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 43,000 tons [14] - After the Spring Festival holiday, downstream industries gradually resumed work, and the开工率 of most asphalt downstream industries increased. The national asphalt shipments increased by 12.67% to 176,100 tons, but are still at a low level. The asphalt plant inventory rate remained unchanged, and the asphalt refinery inventory rate is at the lowest level in recent years [14] - The price of asphalt in Shandong has been adjusted, and the basis has dropped to a relatively low level. The import of Venezuelan crude oil in China is expected to decrease significantly compared to before the US intervention, and the supply of Middle Eastern raw materials will be affected by the US-Israel attack on Iran. The market is concerned about the shortage of raw materials for domestic refineries in March [14] - Dongming Petrochemical has resumed production, and the asphalt开工率 has increased slightly. After the Lantern Festival, terminal demand has gradually recovered. The supply and demand of asphalt have both increased, and the cost support is significant. The market is focused on the tense situation in the Middle East, and the Strait of Hormuz has not resumed navigation. The expected production cuts of refineries have increased. It is expected that the asphalt price will follow the strong performance of crude oil prices in the near future, with large fluctuations [15] PP - As of the week of March 13, the downstream开工率 of PP decreased by 0.16 percentage points to 45.71%. After the Spring Festival holiday, the downstream's acceptance of high-priced raw materials is not high, and the demand recovery is slow. However, the开工率 of the main downstream plastic products of PP continued to increase by 2.88 percentage points to 40.54% [16] - On March 16, some parking devices such as the first-phase second-line of Zhongjing Petrochemical restarted, and the PP enterprise开工率 increased to about 77.5%, which is at a relatively low level. The production ratio of standard-grade PP decreased to about 23.5%. After the Spring Festival holiday, the petrochemical inventory has continued to decline, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in recent years [16] - On the cost side, although the IEA has announced the release of 400 million barrels of oil reserves, the delivery speed is slow. The crude oil price has continued to rebound due to the attacks on multiple ships in the Strait of Hormuz and the statement of the Iranian Supreme Leader to continue to block the Strait of Hormuz. The number of parking devices has increased recently. After the Lantern Festival, the downstream rigid demand has been released intensively, and the price of downstream BOPP films has increased [16] - The domestic supply and demand pattern of PP has improved, and there is still an expectation of anti-involution in the chemical industry. The Middle East situation has boosted the energy and chemical industry. Although PP does not rely on Middle Eastern imports, its upstream depends on Middle Eastern liquefied petroleum gas and crude oil. The shortage of raw materials has led to an increase in the reduction of olefin devices at home and abroad. The downstream has shown resistance to high prices, and the spot trading is weak. However, under the high sentiment of the chemical industry, if the Strait of Hormuz cannot resume navigation, the reduction of refineries will further increase. The PP price is likely to rise rather than fall in the near future [16] Plastic - On March 16, there was little change in the parking devices, and the plastic开工率 remained at about 87.5%, which is at a neutral level. As of the week of March 13, the downstream开工率 of PE increased by 5.21 percentage points to 33.83%. After the Spring Festival holiday, the downstream has gradually resumed production, but has not yet returned to the pre-holiday level. The overall downstream开工率 of PE shows seasonal changes [17][18] - After the Spring Festival holiday, the petrochemical inventory has continued to decline, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in recent years. On the cost side, although the IEA has announced the release of 400 million barrels of oil reserves, the delivery speed is slow. The crude oil price has continued to rebound due to the attacks on multiple ships in the Strait of Hormuz and the statement of the Iranian Supreme Leader to continue to block the Strait of Hormuz [18] - In terms of supply, the new production capacity of 500,000 tons/year of BASF (Guangdong) FDPE and 300,000 tons/year of Yulong Petrochemical LDPE/EVA was put into production in January 2026. There are no plans to put new production capacity into operation in the first quarter. The plastic开工率 has decreased recently. After the Lantern Festival, the downstream factories have increased their resumption of work, and the rigid demand has been released intensively. The prices of agricultural films in North China, East China, and South China have all increased [18] - The domestic supply and demand pattern of plastic has improved, and there is still an expectation of anti-involution in the chemical industry. The Middle East situation has boosted the energy and chemical industry. Iranian PE imports account for about 8% of China's total imports and about 3% of domestic production. The imports from the entire Middle East region account for about 20% of domestic production. The shortage of raw materials has led to an increase in the reduction of olefin devices at home and abroad. The downstream has shown resistance to high prices, and the procurement has become more cautious. The spot trading is weak. However, under the high sentiment of the chemical industry, if the Strait of Hormuz cannot resume navigation, the reduction of refineries will further increase. The plastic price is likely to rise rather than fall in the near future [18] PVC - The price of calcium carbide in the upstream northwest region has increased by 50 yuan/ton. On the supply side, the PVC开工率 increased by 0.24 percentage points to 81.35%, and the PVC开工率 has increased, but is still at a neutral to high level in recent years. After the third week of the Spring Festival holiday, the average downstream开工率 of PVC increased by 3.49 percentage points to 39.33%, which is 3.13 percentage points lower than the same period last year. After the Spring Festival holiday, the downstream has gradually resumed production [19] - In terms of exports, due to the increase in Asian market prices, export inquiries have improved. The social inventory increased significantly during the Spring Festival holiday and continued to increase last week, and is still at a relatively high level. The inventory pressure is still large. From January to February 2026, the real estate market is still in the adjustment stage, and the year-on-year decline in investment, sales, new construction, and completion areas is still large. After the third week of the Spring Festival holiday, the commercial housing transactions have increased month-on-month, but are still at a relatively low level in the same period of previous years. The improvement of the real estate market still takes time [19] - The futures warehouse receipts are still at a high level, and the social inventory continues to increase. However, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment has stated that it will focus on key links such as the research and development of mercury-free catalysts to accelerate the mercury-free transformation of the polyvinyl chloride industry. The supply of upstream raw materials for PVC is tight, and the prices of ethylene and calcium carbide continue to rise. There is an expectation of load reduction in the domestic and international PVC markets. This week, ethylene-based devices such as Xinpu Chemical and Zhejiang Jiahua will reduce their operating loads. The downstream demand is gradually recovering. Under the high sentiment of the chemical industry, if the Strait of Hormuz cannot resume navigation, the PVC price is likely to rise rather than fall in the near future [19][20] Coking Coal - Coking coal opened and closed lower but closed higher on the day. Fundamentally, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal decreased last week, and the domestic mine开工率 has reached 87.16%, a month-on-month increase of 4.84%. The production and开工率 are both at a relatively high level year-on-year. However, due to the impact of overseas military conflicts, the price of coking coal has increased, leading to an increase in the downstream's purchasing sentiment. The coking coal inventory has decreased significantly this period, a month-on-month decrease of 85,800 tons. The downstream coking enterprises and steel mills have replenished their inventories, a month-on-month increase of 199,800 tons and 19,900 tons respectively. However, the coke production has not increased significantly, and the steel mills' profitability has recovered, with the开工 rate increasing by 0.63%, but the start-up speed is slower than in previous years [21] - Although the fundamentals of coking coal have no upward driving force, it is still in a strong consolidation state recently due to the stimulation of inflation expectations and the expectation of energy shortage. If the Middle East situation shows no sign of stopping in the short term, the energy and chemical industry will remain strong. Otherwise, there is a risk of a rapid decline [21] Urea - The market sentiment was high last week, and the rise of futures and international urea has driven the enthusiasm of spot trading. Most regions remained stable this weekend. The ex-factory prices of urea factories in Hebei, Shandong, and Henan range from 1,810 to 1,840 yuan/ton [22] - Fundamentally, the state reserve of urea has been released, and the daily production has continuously reached new highs. At present, the gas-based devices have basically completed their resumption of production, and there are sporadic shutdown plans for upstream factories. The resumption and shutdown are parallel, with basically no major changes. The raw material prices of compound fertilizers have all increased to varying degrees this week, and the terminal sales are smooth. The cost and demand have jointly driven the price of compound fertilizer products to rise. Although the开工 rate is gradually increasing, the finished product inventory is still decreasing. Although the topdressing of wheat during the greening period is basically over, subsequent products such as spring corn still require a large amount of high-nitrogen compound fertilizers. Although the increase in raw material prices has squeezed the factory profits, the high demand still corresponds to the high supply [22] - After the sharp increase, the downstream buys when the price rises and does not buy when the price falls, and the terminal sales are smooth. The upstream factory inventory has continued to decrease. Although the current daily production is higher than last year, the inventory has not shown a large increase due to the digestion of downstream demand and the drive of exports. Instead, it shows a looser situation than last year, with no obvious inventory pressure, which is an important reason to support the strong market. Overall, due to the combination of farming and the Middle East situation, urea shows a slight over-increase. Ensuring supply and stabilizing prices during the spring plowing season is still the main tone of the market. The opportunity for a significant increase in the future depends on the export quota after the end of the spring plowing season. It is expected to stabilize in the short term [22][23]

Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: March 12, 2026 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin, Yu Feifei [3][4] Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core View - The inflation suppressing interest rate cut logic dominates the strong dollar trend, and metals are under pressure. The domestic metal market is in a stalemate, with most metals fluctuating narrowly. The short - term zinc futures market is expected to show narrow - range fluctuations [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Futures Market Quotes**: For SHFE zinc, the 2603 contract opened at 24,330 yuan/ton, closed at 24,290 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 5 yuan and a rise - fall rate of 0.02%, and the position decreased by 1,150 lots to 6,570 lots; the 2604 contract opened at 24,460 yuan/ton, closed at 24,385 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 20 yuan and a fall rate of 0.08%, and the position decreased by 527 lots to 74,220 lots; the 2605 contract opened at 24,510 yuan/ton, closed at 24,430 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 15 yuan and a fall rate of 0.06%, and the position increased by 1,445 lots to 66,448 lots [7] - **Market Analysis**: The inflation data in the US to be released at night is expected to be mild in February, but the soaring energy prices in March due to the Middle - East conflict will push up inflation. The LME metals generally fell, and the domestic metal market was in a stalemate. The main SHFE zinc contract closed at 24,385 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The LME zinc inventory decreased by 50 tons to 98,900 tons on the 11th. The domestic TC of SMM Zn50 increased by 50 to 1,550 yuan/metal ton, and the import zinc concentrate index decreased by 8.37 to 15.38 dollars/ton. The refined zinc output in March will increase month - on - month. The downstream resumption rhythm is differentiated, and the inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots increased by 0.59 million tons to 26.22 million tons on Monday [7] 2. Industry News - **0 Zinc Transaction Price**: On March 11, 2026, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was concentrated at 24,300 - 24,390 yuan/ton, and the Shuangyan brand was traded at 24,370 - 24,490 yuan/ton [8] - **Regional Market Quotes**: In the Ningbo market, the mainstream brand 0 zinc was traded at about 24,240 - 24,380 yuan/ton, with a discount of 65 yuan/ton to the 2604 contract; in the Tianjin market, 0 zinc ingots were mainly traded at 24,210 - 24,440 yuan/ton, with a discount of 20 - 90 yuan/ton to the 2604 contract; in the Guangdong market, 0 zinc was mainly traded at 24,195 - 24,385 yuan/ton, with a discount of 105 - 75 yuan/ton to the 2604 contract [8] 3. Data Overview - **Data Charts**: The report includes charts such as the price trends of zinc in two markets, SHFE monthly spreads, SMM seven - region zinc ingot weekly inventory, and LME zinc inventory, with data sources from Wind, SMM, and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [10][12]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that the U.S. February CPI met expectations, with core inflation showing moderate performance, but market focus has shifted away from this somewhat "outdated" data [1] Group 1: Inflation Trends - It is anticipated that the U.S. CPI year-on-year growth will rise in March and April due to increases in oil prices and compensatory rises in rental inflation, before fluctuating around 3% thereafter [1] - The core inflation performance is described as mild, suggesting that underlying inflation pressures may not be as severe as previously feared [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - The Federal Reserve is not expected to overreact to fluctuations in oil prices, indicating a more measured approach to monetary policy [1] - The U.S. dollar is likely to maintain a strong and volatile trend in the near term, while the ten-year U.S. Treasury yield lacks sufficient downward space [1]

Market Analysis - The current market for gold is expected to find a trading range between $4,600 and $5,500, indicating potential volatility ahead [1] - There is an anticipation of a pullback in gold prices due to an overextended market and an "ugly candlestick" pattern observed [1] Geopolitical and Economic Factors - The strengthening of the US dollar is likely to exert downward pressure on gold prices in the short term [2] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, are contributing to a risk-off environment that could affect both gold and the US dollar positively in the long term [3] - Despite short-term challenges, there is optimism for long-term growth in gold prices due to ongoing geopolitical issues and a potentially tight Federal Reserve policy [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical premiums are rising, and macroeconomic games are intensifying. Geopolitical risks have significantly increased, and safe-haven funds are continuously flowing into the precious metals market. Gold prices are approaching $5,200 per ounce. Energy prices are rising, pushing up global inflation expectations, and the market is re - evaluating the monetary policy path. The US dollar has rebounded, and precious metals are maintaining a high - level oscillation pattern between safe - haven demand and interest rate expectations [1]. - If the Middle East conflict continues and disrupts global energy supply, the safe - haven demand for gold will remain. However, if energy prices drive inflation expectations to rise and strengthen the high - interest - rate environment, the upward space for gold prices may be limited. In the short term, gold may maintain a high - level oscillation pattern, and in the medium term, it still depends on real interest rates and the US dollar trend [2]. - Silver is a high - volatility asset under the resonance of precious metals. Geopolitical conflicts strengthen the overall safe - haven demand for precious metals. Silver has received support from capital allocation. After significant fluctuations, silver has entered a shock - repair stage, and capital re - allocation within the precious metals sector makes the short - term volatility of silver significantly higher than that of gold. The industrial attribute provides marginal support for silver demand. If the safe - haven sentiment continues to heat up, silver is expected to maintain high elasticity in the precious metals sector. If interest rate expectations rise again, silver price fluctuations may further increase, maintaining a high - volatility oscillation pattern [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical premiums are rising, and macroeconomic games are intensifying [1]. - **Logic**: - The Middle East conflict continues to escalate, and the uncertainty of global energy supply has significantly increased, and safe - haven demand continuously supports the gold price [1]. - Rising oil prices drive up inflation expectations, and the market re - evaluates the monetary policy path of major economies. The possibility of maintaining high interest rates exerts a phased suppression on gold [1]. - The US dollar rebounds after a previous decline. Exchange rate and interest rate factors cause gold to show an oscillation pattern at a high level [1]. - **Outlook**: If the Middle East conflict continues and disrupts global energy supply, the safe - haven demand for gold will remain. However, if energy prices drive inflation expectations to rise and strengthen the high - interest - rate environment, the upward space for gold prices may be limited. In the short term, gold may maintain a high - level oscillation pattern, and in the medium term, it still depends on real interest rates and the US dollar trend [2]. Silver - **Viewpoint**: A high - volatility asset under the resonance of precious metals [3]. - **Logic**: - Geopolitical conflicts strengthen the overall safe - haven demand for precious metals, and silver receives support from capital allocation in the context of the strengthening of gold [3]. - After significant fluctuations, silver has entered a shock - repair stage, and capital re - allocation within the precious metals sector makes the short - term volatility of silver significantly higher than that of gold [3]. - In the context of certain resilience in the global economy, the industrial attribute provides marginal support for silver demand [3]. - **Outlook**: If the safe - haven sentiment continues to heat up, silver is expected to maintain high elasticity in the precious metals sector. If interest rate expectations rise again, silver price fluctuations may further increase, maintaining a high - volatility oscillation pattern [3]. Commodity Index - **Composite Index**: Not provided with specific data - **Special Index**: - Commodity Index: 2510.23, +1.04% [44] - Commodity 20 Index: 2869.81, +1.11% [44] - Industrial Products Index: 2430.86, +1.36% [44] - **Sector Index (Precious Metals Index)**: - On March 5, 2026, the index was 4413.43, with a daily increase of +0.91% [46] - The increase in the past 5 days was - 1.33% [46] - The increase in the past 1 month was - 14.40% [46] - The increase from the beginning of the year to the present was +15.41% [46]